May 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Deweydog]

Maybe it's time for another forecast contest. Third time's a charm?

For July? Better do it soon before the GFS starts dipping into it.

 

Problem with you is your forecasts never match your rhetoric.

[TT-SEA]

Yeah, that is getting specific enough where you could actually be pinned down if wrong. Would want to avoid that.

Right.

 

Very warm mid-March through mid-May. Then cooler and wetter from mid-May until possibly mid-June. Hard to determine if that was correct.

[Phil]

These are the best analogs in terms of SSTAs, observed tendencies in forcing/circulation, and historical statistical tendencies based on these observations. Note the overall progression:

 

April:

 

 

May:

 

 

June:

 

 

July:

 

 

August:

 

 

September:

[Jesse]

For July? Better do it soon before the GFS starts dipping into it.

 

Problem with you is your forecasts never match your rhetoric.

Does that last part mean that since I like cool weather, you would always expect my forecasts to skew cool? Joke's on you I guess. It is frustrating when people don't conform to your condescending ideas about them.

[TT-SEA]

Does that last part mean that since I like cool weather, you would always expect my forecasts to skew cool? Joke's on you I guess. It is frustrating when people don't conform to your condescending ideas about them.

You are saying the same thing to me right now as Matt is saying to you.

[Phil]

Phil will tell me for the thousandth time that I am wrong about JAS. Got it. Check back in September and let the chips fall where they may.

If I am right then it was a lucky guess... if I am wrong then I will be mocked for doubting. Perfect.

I can't say you're "wrong" about anything until the chips actually fall.

 

I'm just curious as to what analogs you're using, because you're telling me that your forecast is based on historical precedence. When I look at the highest-performing analogs, I get a completely different solution.

[Jesse]

You are saying the same thing to me right now as Matt is saying to you.

Matt's an unfair guy, and apparently I am too. To be expected.

[James Jones]

Somebody should make a summer forecast thread for the monthly anomalies for June-September at BLI, SEA, OLM, PDX, SLE, and EUG (or whatever choice of stations you'd rather use). 

 

It would be interesting to have some hard numbers to look at come October, though by then people might not care at all since we'll be heading into a Nina winter.

[Jesse]

Somebody should make a summer forecast thread for the monthly anomalies for June-September at BLI, SEA, OLM, PDX, SLE, and EUG (or whatever choice of stations you'd rather use).

 

It would be interesting to have some hard numbers to look at come October, though by then people might not care at all since we'll be heading into a Nina winter.

I actually have been thinking about doing just that.

[Phil]

Somebody should make a summer forecast thread for the monthly anomalies for June-September at BLI, SEA, OLM, PDX, SLE, and EUG (or whatever choice of stations you'd rather use).

 

It would be interesting to have some hard numbers to look at come October, though by then people might not care at all since we'll be heading into a Nina winter.

I agree. Let's do it.

 

As many stations as possible would be best.

[James Jones]

I actually have been thinking about doing just that.

I say go for it. It would be fun.

[Deweydog]

These are the best analogs in terms of SSTAs, observed tendencies in forcing/circulation, and historical statistical tendencies based on these observations. Note the overall progression:

 

April:

 

image.png

 

May:

 

image.png

 

June:

 

image.png

 

July:

 

image.png

 

August:

 

image.png

 

September:

Seems plausibleish.

[Deweydog]

Today 33 years ago was the start of a disturbingly warm stretch in the PNW.

[Bryant]

What analogs are you using?

 

In this case, for July to blowtorch, you'll need Pacific/W-HEM forcing, with IO/MT subsidence. Otherwise, it's not happening.

With the collapse of this Nino and shifting regime, any WHem forcing would be short lived as the upper air configuration wouldn't support it. I agree fully with you here

[Bryant]

July will blowtorch... JAS will average slightly above normal. Sticking with it... not because of what I want but because it's what I think based on history. Spring of 2017 will be cold and wet. Not sure how I can forecast that since it's the opposite of what I want. Hope I am wrong!

Nothing wrong with making this prediction, I'm just hoping you'll give some criteria for what kind of "blowtorch" you expect. You obviously feel confident here, so don't give yourself room to back pedal down the road.

[Front Ranger]

Ironically it was pretty much Tim who was highlighting this pattern change this month while some were completely focused on runaway record warmth.

 

This forum is hilarious.

[TT-SEA]

Nothing wrong with making this prediction, I'm just hoping you'll give some criteria for what kind of "blowtorch" you expect. You obviously feel confident here, so don't give yourself room to back pedal down the road.

Not super confident... obviously we would need to define it. Out and about right now.

[Front Ranger]

And the last thing I am guilty of is forecasting what I want. I normally do the opposite. And get ripped for being negative. Whatever. I called this troughy period correctly.

 

Unless it goes on all summer...

[Phil]

Seems plausibleish.

Here are the SSTAs for those years, aggregated JJA on a 1900-2000 baseline:

 

[Front Ranger]

I agree. Let's do it.

 

As many stations as possible would be best.

 

You're not going to get everyone on here to forecast all those stations. Guarantee it. There are several posters who pretty much only care about and forecast for PDX.

[Phil]

You're not going to get everyone on here to forecast all those stations. Guarantee it. There are several posters who pretty much only care about and forecast for PDX.

That's silly. What's the point of participating if you're afraid to step out of your comfort zone?

 

Heck, I live on the other side of the continent.

[Front Ranger]

Today 33 years ago was the start of a disturbingly warm stretch in the PNW.

 

The 104 that Oregon City hit on the 28th was one for the ages. Hell, downtown Portland hit 103. Earliest widespread 100+ event in western lowlands. 

 

I remember my parents telling me about that year. They lived in Ashford, WA, at the time, and apparently saw some snow 2 weeks before hitting 100 in May 1983.

[Bryant]

July will blowtorch... JAS will average slightly above normal. Sticking with it.

Not sure how you can say this then say you're not super confident?

[TT-SEA]

Not sure how you can say this then say you're not super confident?

Just making a prediction... not representative of confidence.

[Trainwreck]

Pretty evening...

 

Just curious what that butte is Tim. Pretty

 

http://s32.postimg.org/4t7yaghj9/nb34.png

[Jesse]

 

Pretty evening...

 

Just curious what that butte is Tim. Pretty

 

http://s32.postimg.org/4t7yaghj9/nb34.png

That is Mount Si I believe.

[Jesse]

Just making a prediction... not representative of confidence.

A bold prediction like a blowtorch July would indicate confidence in the fuzzy world of long range forecasting.

[Trainwreck]

That is Mount Si I believe.

Thanks Jesse. This is High Desert Mat btw. I had to change names due to lack of passwords knowledge. I'm in Redmond Oregon.

[Bryant]

A bold prediction like a blowtorch July would indicate confidence in the fuzzy world of long range forecasting.

Exactly

[Jesse]

That's silly. What's the point of participating if you're afraid to step out of your comfort zone?

 

Heck, I live on the other side of the continent.

I think everyone would participate, if those were the rules.

[Jesse]

Unless it goes on all summer...

18z says NO!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Rained the entire day yesterday and this morning. Had a nice 3-4 hour break this afternoon and now some heavy rain falling. Looks like Salem picked up almost a half inch of rain this afternoon. 

[Phil]

I think everyone would participate, if those were the rules.

Yeah, I don't envision a participation issue.

[Jesse]

00Z GFS looking troughalicious.

[Phil]

That's one bizzare-looking pattern on the 00z GFS. Big battle between the tropical forcing transition(s) and poleward residual niño inertia.

 

Eventually, La Niña will emerge victorious.

[Phil]

Going OT here, but man, that's one heck of a derecho pattern setting up in the long range.

[Jesse]

That's one bizzare-looking pattern on the 00z GFS. Big battle between the tropical forcing transition(s) and poleward residual niño inertia.

 

Eventually, La Niña will emerge victorious.

 

This run definitely wants to keep us in the default trough position into early June.

[Deweydog]

Going OT here, but man, that's one heck of a derecho pattern setting up in the long range.

Good thing I just had derecho detectors installed in all the bedrooms.

[TT-SEA]

The 00Z ECMWF keeps us pretty much cloudy and occasionally damp for the next 6 days.    Sunny interludes and couple totally dry days in a row are overrated in the warm season.  Be nice to have a pattern with a day of rain and then a couple warmer (but not hot), totally sunny days.    That is a good warm season balance.  But its all or nothing around here.   

 

I think this troughy period will have about run its course in a week to 10 days.

[Deweydog]

The 00Z ECMWF keeps us pretty much cloudy and damp for the next 6 days. Sunny interludes and couple totally dry days in a row are overrated in the warm season. Be nice to have a pattern with a day of rain and then a couple warmer, totally sunny days mixed in. But its all or nothing around here.

 

I think this troughy period will have about run its course in a week to 10 days.

Insane.

 

Absolutely liver-eating-with-a-nice-Chianti insane.

 

When will it end???????????????