Preliminary Discussion For Upcoming 2016-2017 Fall and Winter Season

[Tom]

After doing some more digging, similar weather patterns are being advertised in the longer range models.  Today's 12z GFS highlighting a similar pattern during Oct 17th-21st.  IMO, the LRC is roughly centered on 42 days.  If that is to be true, we should see a storm system coming out of the TX Pan Handle region right around the 30th and track towards the Lakes to open December.  Seems like that is becoming more favorable ATM.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016111806/gfs-ens_mslpa_us_48.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016111812/gfs_mslpa_us_43.png

 

 

Going forward, CFSv2 weeklies and Euro Weeklies are indicating a very cold period Week 3-4.  The 500mb maps I posted in the previous post are trying to show a piece of the PV on this side of the Pole.  Remember the record early split of the PV back on Oct 27th - Nov 4th???  Fast forward 42 days and it's around Dec 8th - 16th!  Fascinating....

[jaster220]

 

I don't see the AO going positive. My hunch on this topic is that the atmosphere's natural response to such a large accumulation of heat during the recent El Nino is to put as much of the heat into the Arctic as possible where it will more efficiently radiate into space. 

 

IMHO this -AO pattern combined with the warmest and correspondingly most moist atmosphere on record is likely to put down a lot of snow in the mid-latitudes this winter. However, this could be a situation where +snowfall doesn't necessarily correlate with -temperatures when averaged over the whole season, especially in North America.

 

from stlwxjunkie post - interesting about the extreme moisture. Might that be helping today's disconnected storm achieve totals beyond what you would expect?

[jaster220]

After doing some more digging, similar weather patterns are being advertised in the longer range models.  Today's 12z GFS highlighting a similar pattern during Oct 17th-21st.  IMO, the LRC is roughly centered on 42 days.  If that is to be true, we should see a storm system coming out of the TX Pan Handle region right around the 30th and track towards the Lakes to open December.  Seems like that is becoming more favorable ATM.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016111806/gfs-ens_mslpa_us_48.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016111812/gfs_mslpa_us_43.png

 

 

Going forward, CFSv2 weeklies and Euro Weeklies are indicating a very cold period Week 3-4.  The 500mb maps I posted in the previous post are trying to show a piece of the PV on this side of the Pole.  Remember the record early split of the PV back on Oct 27th - Nov 4th???  Fast forward 42 days and it's around Dec 8th - 16th!  Fascinating....

 

1) Dec 8th is Flower's target for a serious storm too    

2) Besides the panhandle SLP, what's that out in the Atlantic? Looks wound-up nicely for sure..

 

Edit: with that moisture anomaly, could we even (T)trump that 70's show Tom??

[Tom]

1) Dec 8th is Flower's target for a serious storm too    

2) Besides the panhandle SLP, what's that out in the Atlantic? Looks wound-up nicely for sure..

 

Edit: with that moisture anomaly, could we even (T)trump that 70's show Tom??

I like that!  That energy off the SE Canada coast is actually the storm system that slides through during Wed/Thu Thanksgiving period.

[jaster220]

SouthernMisssouri posted (it's not everyday MO get's theirs this got attention):

 

 

[Tom]

SouthernMisssouri posted (it's not everyday MO get's theirs this got attention):

 

20161117 CFS snowfall to 31-Dec.PNG

Must say, it fits this year's LRC storm track.  I'd take half of those totals in December!  All I want for Christmas is a snow globe in my nieghborhood...please Mother Nature...#MakeTheCentralConusSnowyAgain

[jaster220]

Must say, it fits this year's LRC storm track.  I'd take half of those totals in December!  All I want for Christmas is a snow globe in my nieghborhood...please Mother Nature...#MakeTheCentralConusSnowyAgain

 

Props back atcha!

 

JB says, let the good times roll (onto our side of the globe). Look out below N. America!

 

 

[Tom]

Chitown making some bold forecasts:

 

http://www.nbcchicago.com/news/local/Payback-for-Last-Year-City-Prepares-for-Snowy-Cold-Winter-Season-401906926.html?_osource=SocialFlowFB_CHBrand

 

Maybe another historic Blizzard????  

[Tony]

Well it's been one heck of a run with this warmth but it looks like it is about to end. It was really enjoyable but with Thanksgiving upon us it's time to get into the winter spirit. Looking forward to tracking winter storms and hopefully some memorable ones for all on this forum.

[Tom]

CPC updated their seasonal outlook and no significant changes showing up from its previous run.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/t01.2c.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/p01.2c.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/t02.2c.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/p02.2c.gif

 

 

 

Spring months...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/t03.2c.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/p03.2c.gif

[Tom]

Well it's been one heck of a run with this warmth but it looks like it is about to end. It was really enjoyable but with Thanksgiving upon us it's time to get into the winter spirit. Looking forward to tracking winter storms and hopefully some memorable ones for all on this forum.

Welcome back buddy!

[Tony]

_{Been lurking but with not much to say, at least for me. You guys have been doing a heck of a job keeping everyone informed and I want to say "excellent Job" and thank you!!}

[Niko]

After doing some more digging, similar weather patterns are being advertised in the longer range models.  Today's 12z GFS highlighting a similar pattern during Oct 17th-21st.  IMO, the LRC is roughly centered on 42 days.  If that is to be true, we should see a storm system coming out of the TX Pan Handle region right around the 30th and track towards the Lakes to open December.  Seems like that is becoming more favorable ATM.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016111806/gfs-ens_mslpa_us_48.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016111812/gfs_mslpa_us_43.png

 

 

Going forward, CFSv2 weeklies and Euro Weeklies are indicating a very cold period Week 3-4.  The 500mb maps I posted in the previous post are trying to show a piece of the PV on this side of the Pole.  Remember the record early split of the PV back on Oct 27th - Nov 4th???  Fast forward 42 days and it's around Dec 8th - 16th!  Fascinating....

Impressive!

[GDR]

December looking impressive http://tswails.com/uploads/2016/11/1-dec-temps2.png

http://tswails.com/uploads/2016/11/1-december-precip.png

[Niko]

New and final winter outlooks should be coming out soon.

[jaster220]

Posted by Jebman (not sure if this is partially a spoof or overboard satire tbh??) Interesting nonetheless:

 

 

This will be a mega winter long remembered in the Midwest and in New England.

Throughout the winter, which will last well into the late spring, jebwalks will be characterized by crippling cold and ridiculous amounts of snow accumulation. The Midwest in particular will be battered into submission by epic Siberian airmass after epic Siberian airmass. The Northeast will get smashed by a few of the Midwestern airmasses. By late July 2017, the record books for the Midwest and Northeast will need to be completely rewritten, in terms of crazy frigid temperatures and in terms of unbelievably deep snowpack, some of which will persist into meteorological summer. I am not referring to the mountains, either.

By mid January of the New Year, many in the Midwest and in the typical lake effect communities will be crying for the Jebman to come and dig them out, and many will be crying for Spring. Snowblowers will break down, and snow removal equipment will simply get bogged down in the incredibly deep, 1978-like snowpacks. This winter in the Midwest WILL BE FAR WORSE THAN 1978, due to climate change perturbations and because of such frigid airmasses interacting with milder air farther south.

If you live in these places, you might want to think about moving to Virginia for the next 9 months.

IT'S GOING TO BE BAD.

[Niko]

Posted by Jebman (not sure if this is partially a spoof or overboard satire tbh??) Interesting nonetheless:

I am ready! Bring it on.

[Money]

http://www.weather.gov/images/lot/climate/Winter201617/Winter2016_17OutlookSummary.png

[Thunder98]

I think the Midwest will see a colder, wetter, snowier and cloudier than average winter.

[Niko]

I definitely like this.

 

http://static.lakana.com/media.fox2detroit.com/photo/2016/10/31/Derek%20Jet%20Stream_1477924412244_2220819_ver1.0.png

[jaster220]

WxRisk's (aka DT) final winter forecast:  https://www.wxrisk.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/finalLONG.pdf

[Niko]

WxRisk's (aka DT) final winter forecast:  https://www.wxrisk.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/finalLONG.pdf

A little disappointed that he would not state any snowfall predictions.

[OKwx2k4]

WxRisk's (aka DT) final winter forecast: https://www.wxrisk.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/finalLONG.pdf

Playing it safe I guess. Fair call.

[Tony]

Was looking through some maps from last winter and saw this one....ONLY IF.

[Niko]

Was looking through some maps from last winter and saw this one....ONLY IF.

[jaster220]

Was looking through some maps from last winter and saw this one....ONLY IF.

 

LOL, yeah. That gave mby 5.3 inches (although a couple counties north got 14", so nice storm there) and was the 2nd system that could've been much bigger like those maps flashed had the temps been colder, not the hot mess Super Nino was dishing up last winter. The 11.6" slop storm just prior (2-24,25) would easily have been another 18" bliz with decent temps and thermal contrasts to work with. Trying not to complain though, since I actually got several storms last season and so many across the country got nada 

[jaster220]

This vid gave some thoughts on amounts for GL's based on 40-50% above normal LES. 116" for St. Joseph would be similar to 2013-14 totals iirc

 

 

 

 

And a few larger city snowfall totals:

 

 

[Niko]

This vid gave some thoughts on amounts for GL's based on 40-50% above normal LES. 116" for St. Joseph would be similar to 2013-14 totals iirc

 

20161122 Weatherview GL's LES forecast.PNG

 

 

And a few larger city snowfall totals:

 

20161122 Weatherview MW snow forecast.PNG

If Detroit is at 62", then, I will most likely be higher. Thinking...68-75".

[FV-Mike]

Skilling sticking with the above avg open to December

 

[jaster220]

@ Niko   That J in Jackpot's over your house, yes?

 

That one dude got trounced over on Amwx for using the "Bad" word when describing our upcoming winter, but here it is again from another source..  

 

 

 

 

[Niko]

@ Niko   That J in Jackpot's over your house, yes?

 

That one dude got trounced over on Amwx for using the "Bad" word when describing our upcoming winter, but here it is again from another source..  

 

20161122 Weather Decoded winter forecast.PNG

20161122 Weather Decoded winter impact index.PNG

20161122 Weather Decoded winter snowfall.PNG

Indeed, yes. You and I will beat everyone this winter in terms of snowfall. Look at that beauty on all three maps. Get ready Jaster...its coming!!!!!!

 

Lets hope these maps verify!

[jaster220]

Pretty interesting stuff about the QBO. We have a solid west (+) phase going into the winter. Both '67 and '99 featured the same. Seems to favor strong GLC's

 

From DT's winter write-up:

 

 

[Tom]

Gary Lezak comes out with his Winter forecast tomorrow...

[Tom]

Here is an article written today during an interview with Dr. Cohen on our upcoming Winter...

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/11/22/judah-cohen-winter-outlook-cold-for-eastern-u-s-snowy-in-washington/

[jaster220]

 

 

From a pretty funny article on storm hype (beware left-wing zone):  http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/03/03/1191277/-The-anatomy-of-winter-storm-hype-or-why-snow-forecasting-is-like-lemon-in-a-paper-cut

[Niko]

As of now, first part of December looking balmy.

[Andrew NE]

Not liking the looks of Gary's winter forecast.

[OKwx2k4]

Not liking the looks of Gary's winter forecast.

I wouldn't worry too much. I haven't read it yet but I know he missed my Saturday and Sunday's lows only by around +20º or so. Close. Lol. He also doesn't have my low temperature dropping to 32 until December 11. If his cycle is close he must've meant 12 degrees.

[Tom]

Here is Gary's Winter Forecast...short version...I'll post some of his graphics...

 

 

 

 

 

 

[NEJeremy]

It's interesting to see how everyone's take is different on this winter. Jim Flowers has us(Nebraska) as cold and above average snow. Another met in town has us cold but only average snowfall. And then Lezak has us warm and dry.