August 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

 

Sorry, you already disavowed your thoughts for the summer from May. The contest is on record.

 

Anyone here can claim it's not a "shocker". Meaningless. What we know for fact is that pretty much no one was predicting a very warm August. Which of course could still fall apart, if things got crazy the last week of the month.

 

But its not a shocker to me.     Had to put something down but was thinking either August or September would be warm and picked September.   Might be both this year.   Not sure yet.

[Deweydog]

But its not a shocker to me. Had to put something down but was thinking either August or September would be warm and picked September. Might be both this year. Not sure yet.

Bullshit.

[Phil]

One place that has definitely been troughy/cool this summer is the Arctic. The ice was in terrible shape in late May, and many prognosticators were expecting a record ice melt. But thanks to a strong and persistent polar vortex most of the summer, a new record isn't even close to attainable.

 

Maybe Phil has some insight into what this could mean, if anything, going into this winter.

Well, though the sea ice concentration doesn't have a huge impact in terms of radiation fluxes into the stratosphere, the state of the NAM itself begins to matter somewhat right about now in regards to the feedback process that drives the development of the wintertime PV/NAM.

 

If we're talking about strat/PV influence, we'd prefer blocking/anticyclonic flow in the polar upper troposphere during the late summer/autumn, to slow down/reduce the coupling between the developing PV and the tropospheric circulation. If we (for whatever reason, of which there could be many) progress into a +NAM state during S/O/N, this can/will constructively feed back both kinematically and thermodynamically with the developing stratospheric PV. If the vortex can stack vertically, it can/will strengthen exponentially and unabatedly until bottom-up wave amplification can tilt/destabilize it sufficiently to either halt the strengthening it induce a self destruction (SSW/Wave2 response).

[Phil]

A warm August would definitely be a surprise to me. A very big surprise, actually.

 

Nothing wrong with admitting that. Mother Nature is a complicated piece of work.

[Front Ranger]

But its not a shocker to me.     Had to put something down but was thinking either August or September would be warm and picked September.   Might be both this year.   Not sure yet.

 

Shocker.

[TT-SEA]

Bullshit.

 

 

 

I basically flipped a coin and picked September as the warm one of the two months.   

[TT-SEA]

A warm August would definitely be a surprise to me. A very big surprise, actually.

 

Nothing wrong with admitting that. Mother Nature is a complicated piece of work.

 

 

Indeed.

[Front Ranger]

Well, though the sea ice concentration doesn't have a huge impact in terms of radiation fluxes into the stratosphere, the state of the NAM itself begins to matter somewhat right about now in regards to the feedback process that drives the development of the wintertime PV/NAM.

 

If we're talking about strat/PV influence, we'd prefer blocking/anticyclonic flow in the polar upper troposphere during the late summer/autumn, to slow down/reduce the coupling between the developing PV and the tropospheric circulation. If we (for whatever reason, of which there could be many) progress into a +NAM state during S/O/N, this can/will constructively feed back both kinematically and thermodynamically with the developing stratospheric PV. If the vortex can stack vertically, it can/will strengthen exponentially and unabatedly until bottom-up wave amplification can tilt/destabilize it sufficiently to either halt the strengthening it induce a self destruction (SSW/Wave2 response).

 

So do we want to see a strong PV through the fall, or would it be a better sign to see it weaken? I'm not sure from what you said, sorry.

[Jesse]

For everyone already writing August's steamy obituary, there still looks to be a decent chance the last 7-10 days of the month end up relatively cool.

[Front Ranger]

 

I basically flipped a coin and picked September as the warm one of the two months.   

 

I believe it. Science!

[Phil]

So do we want to see a strong PV through the fall, or would it be a better sign to see it weaken? I'm not sure from what you said, sorry.

Sorry, kind of rambled on there.

 

We want a weak strat-PV early-on in a Niña, so we definitely want to see a -NAM (-AO) during S/O/N, or at least a big block (anticyclone) somewhere in the higher latitudes (whether it be within the NPAC/EPO domain, or NATL/NAO domain, doesn't matter where) to disrupt the conduit to rapid fall/early winter vortex intensification (coupling/vertical stacking).

 

Again, it doesn't matter where the block seems up as long as it's strong enough to perturb the PV via mass/momentum transfer during those crucial developmental stages.

[TT-SEA]

I believe it. Science!

 

 

There was no clear indication.    One of the two months was likely to be warm.  

 

Science would not have helped.

[Phil]

There was no clear indication. One of the two months was likely to be warm.

 

Science would not have helped.

Except for the large # of years that were cooler than average in both August and September.

[Front Ranger]

For everyone already writing August's steamy obituary, there still looks to be a decent chance the last 7-10 days of the month end up relatively cool.

 

I'm a realist. At this point, it will take a very cool last 7-10 days of the month for most places to end up near normal.

 

Given how things have gone, I'd say there's a 10% chance OLM ends up below normal, 20% normal or slightly above, 30% +1 to +2, and 80% chance of +2 to +4.

[TT-SEA]

Except for the large # of years that were cooler than average in both August and September.

 

 

I did not really see that locally.   And least not significantly so.   Could very well be true on a regional level though.  

[Front Ranger]

Sorry, kind of rambled on there.

 

We want a weak strat-PV early-on in a Niña, so we definitely want to see a -NAM (-AO) during S/O/N, or at least a big block (anticyclone) somewhere in the higher latitudes (whether it be within the NPAC/EPO domain, or NATL/NAO domain, doesn't matter where) to disrupt the conduit to rapid fall/early winter vortex intensification (coupling/vertical stacking).

 

Again, it doesn't matter where the block seems up as long as it's strong enough to perturb the PV via mass/momentum transfer during those crucial developmental stages.

 

Cool. Something to keep an eye on.

 

I still think you overvalue the AO in relation to PNW winters, but regardless, more blocking up north increases the odds across the board. 

[Phil]

Cool. Something to keep an eye on.

 

I still think you overvalue the AO in relation to PNW winters, but regardless, more blocking up north increases the odds across the board.

Well, I'm not saying the AO matters directly here, rather that high latitude blocking (in general) will destructively interfere with the developing stratPV, and capping the PV early is always a priority in a Niña, much more-so than a Niño. Having the block center close to the pole is also preferable for opening conduits to upward mass/momentum transfer into the vortex.

 

Niñas with raging PVs in O/N/D rarely turn out well for the PNW lowlands.

[Front Ranger]

It looks like after today, even beloved OLM will have full blown positive anomalies. For sure after tomorrow.

[Jesse]

I'm a realist. At this point, it will take a very cool last 7-10 days of the month for most places to end up near normal.

 

Given how things have gone, I'd say there's a 10% chance OLM ends up below normal, 20% normal or slightly above, 30% +1 to +2, and 80% chance of +2 to +4.

Thank you Mr. Realist.

 

I don't think I said anything that ran counter to this.

[Deweydog]

I think next week will be cooler than this week.

 

 

 

I'm ******* brilliant.

[Front Ranger]

Thank you Mr. Realist.

 

I don't think I said anything that ran counter to this.

 

I also said a very warm August could fall apart earlier. Just wouldn't get your hopes up for it.

 

Time to bet on September!

[Front Ranger]

I think next week will be cooler than this week.

 

 

 

I'm ******* brilliant.

 

You must have flipped a coin. Outperforms science 50% of the time.

[Jesse]

I also said a very warm August could fall apart earlier. Just wouldn't get your hopes up for it.

 

 

Thank you for talking some sense into me.

[Deweydog]

0z seems to want to dig the Thursday/Friday shortwave a little further west. Might keep some people off the ledge.

[TT-SEA]

0z seems to want to dig the Thursday/Friday shortwave a little further west. Might keep some people off the ledge.

 

 

I was just noticing that... should make for better ventilation too.  

[Deweydog]

I was just noticing that... should make for better ventilation too.

Really sharpens the thermal trough, the coast could really soar.

[Front Ranger]

Thank you for talking some sense into me.

 

Anytime. I'm here to dash unreasonable hopes, and fuel reasonable ones.

 

Hence, September.

[Deweydog]

00z says 90 is somewhat in question for Friday, especially in outflow spots.

[TT-SEA]

Really sharpens the thermal trough, the coast could really soar.

 

 

Looks like any coolness early with the westward shift is negated later in the weekend with a more amplified ridge. 

[Deweydog]

Looks like any coolness early with the westward shift is negated later in the weekend with a more amplified ridge.

Pick your poison...

 

0z takes the top edge off but definitely protracts thing. At face value Sunday could be the hottest day.

[Jesse]

Anytime. I'm here to dash unreasonable hopes, and fuel reasonable ones.

 

Hence, September.

Stop being an a**.

[Front Ranger]

Stop being an a**.

 

Aw. I hope you're not serious. I'm not. You might feel like I'm goading you, but that's really not my intent. Look at my posts. I don't go after one person. I'm not here to beat anyone up.

 

Sometimes I make light of absurdity. This forum has it in spades. You, me, Tim, Phil, Dewey, everyone. 

 

Anomalies, obsessions, preferences, model riding - it's all fair game.

[Deweydog]

That run is hilarious.

[Jesse]

Aw. I hope you're not serious. I'm not. You might feel like I'm goading you, but that's really not my intent. Look at my posts. I don't go after one person. I'm not here to beat anyone up.

 

Sometimes I make light of absurdity. This forum has it in spades. You, me, Tim, Phil, Dewey, everyone.

 

Anomalies, obsessions, preferences - it's all fair game.

Eh, I made a post about the last week of the month looking like it had the potential to run a bit cooler and you jumped at the opportunity to frame yourself as a pillar of reason, when in fact my statement really wasn't all that unreasonable.

 

It is what it is.

[Front Ranger]

That run is hilarious.

 

I think it's a real a**.

[Front Ranger]

Eh, I made a post about the last week of the month looking like it had the potential to run a bit cooler and you jumped at the opportunity to frame yourself as a pillar of reason, when in fact my statement really wasn't all that unreasonable.

 

It is what it is.

 

Not much.

[Jesse]

Not much.

Don't you have some weather in Colorado to track?

[TT-SEA]

00Z Canadian is much farther east with the initial trough and looks like previous runs with a cool down early next week,.

[Front Ranger]

Don't you have some weather in Colorado to track?

Not much.

[Deweydog]

00Z Canadian is much farther east with the initial trough and looks like previous runs with a cool down early next week,.

NAM is similar to the GFS.

 

It'd be interesting to see that scenario play out. Really unusual scenario this early.