james1976 Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 Great run. Wow, so many systems! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 Big difference between euro and gfs right now. My guess is the nw solution with the euro wins out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 00z EURO farther SE from it's previous run, looks more like the GFS now...takes it from just south of KC up towards lower lakes... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112100/ecmwf_T850_us_9.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112100/ecmwf_T850_us_10.png 00z EPS seems to be showing a first wave track out of CO and heads east...then a secondary, primary wave of energy develops from the south and heads towards the Lakes. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016112100/ecmwf-ens_mslpa_us_9.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016112100/ecmwf-ens_mslpa_us_10.png Day 10...Euro slowed the main system down.. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016112100/ecmwf-ens_mslpa_us_11.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 00z EPS 850's... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016112100/ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_us_10.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016112100/ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_us_11.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 Is it still showing decent snowfall?06z GFS was more SE too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 They're creeping southeast. I like it. All major control runs bring snow down to eastern Oklahoma now. :-) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 They're creeping southeast. I like it. All major control runs bring snow down to eastern Oklahoma now. :-)Did the spread on the 00z EPS send the snow band south also??? Can you post snow map of the entire 00z Euro run? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 @Jaster: Did you use your shovel yesterday??! Sure did! Had to go find it first though CPC outlooked warm, but as we transition out of the warm pattern comes the moisture... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814prcp.new.gif Don't think I've ever seen so much green painted on one of those maps! 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 CFSv2 flipping hard towards some of the extreme analogs for December. It's basically gone from a monster ridge, to a major trough... Nov 2nd run.. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.z700.20161102.201612.gif Today's run... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.z700.20161121.201612.gif Trending nicely...very wet trend continues...the latest run is absolutely nuts if you combine the precip and cold... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201612.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.201612.gif 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 @ Tom #CFSgetsaclue Kudos for hanging tough on the flip when all those models went warm (hot) biased a couple weeks ago Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 Yesterday's run ofc, but at this range nothing's set in concrete. This would rock if only it could happen. I don't think JB's comments meant it was going all the way to the EC. He prolly meant it shouldn't cut as far NW as this bliz we just had. I'd love to be in the game on this one, but having scored a biggie one yr ago, I need to remember not to get too greedy. Easier said than done, tbh Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 @ Tom #CFSgetsaclue Kudos for hanging tough on the flip when all those models went warm (hot) biased a couple weeks ago I know this was directed at Tom but every analog I found that fit this year back in September had the flip. It was hard to just ignore it. May be even more extreme than I even thought it was by the time all is said and done. Even 77-78 had the flip in it. It's going to be a fun winter for everyone. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 @ Tom #CFSgetsaclue Kudos for hanging tough on the flip when all those models went warm (hot) biased a couple weeks ago The CFSv2 trends are certainly looking a lot like the LRC which had extreme early season cold building in SW Canada for the month of October. Obviously it wasn't cold for the lower 48, but that is because the main weather drivers back then are now going to have a much different impact going forward for the lower 48. Check out the placement of the coldest anomalies back in October vs today's run....coincidence??? vs Today's CFSv2 run for December... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20161121.201612.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 Yesterday's run ofc, but at this range nothing's set in concrete. This would rock if only it could happen. I don't think JB's comments meant it was going all the way to the EC. He prolly meant it shouldn't cut as far NW as this bliz we just had. I'd love to be in the game on this one, but having scored a biggie one yr ago, I need to remember not to get too greedy. Easier said than done, tbh 20161120 Euro 0z 240hr surf & 850mb.PNG Yes. This one should be suppressed just slightly further south of where it is there and slightly colder by the time all is said and done if you look at teleconnections during the period. Apps runner for sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 This is last week's weeklies ensemble precip map. Look at the overall storm track here. Love love love it. New weeklies tonight. I'll have a pretty substantive post out tonight after the new weeklies come in. Looks to me like, though, as they say "Sh-- done got real and real fast". Lol. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 GEFS trending for another system digging towards the Pan Handle region around the 3rd/4th of December...ridge off the EC positioned to allow for another GL/OV cutter... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016112100/gfs-ens_mslptrend_us_28.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 Yesterday’s high of 32° was the coldest high here at Grand Rapids since March 3rd and Saturday’s 0.8” was the most snow since April 4th when 5.4” fell.Here is some weather history for Thanksgiving here at GRRhttp://www.weather.gov/grr/news20161120At this time this year will not have any new extremes add to the record books Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 GEFS trending for another system digging towards the Pan Handle region around the 3rd/4th of December...ridge off the EC positioned to allow for another GL/OV cutter... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016112100/gfs-ens_mslptrend_us_28.png Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 Sure did! Had to go find it first though Don't think I've ever seen so much green painted on one of those maps!Hope you found it. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 So far, my forecast for Thanksgiving is calling for overcast skies and chilly conditions with temps in the low 40s and lows in the low 30s with on and off snowflurries. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 At least the CFS likes me. Lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 The 28th-29th storm on the GFS is a brutal windy cold rain... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 Currently at 32F with sunny skies and windy conditions with a WCF of a Brrr of 18F. @Jaster: do you have any pics of the snow you received yesterday? Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 ClicheVortex posted: Very active pattern for the Midwest. 3 GLC in 8 days (if I did the math correctly). I suspect this will be the winter of the GLC's. An extraordinary pattern for lee cyclogenesis. 2 sub-990 lows in one frame! Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 ClicheVortex posted: Anything but the poop storms of the last two winters will be a welcome site Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 ClicheVortex posted: Fun times ahead. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FarmerRick Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 One storm's worth of snow for Nebraska... http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016112112/264/sn10_acc.us_c.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 Currently at 32F with sunny skies and windy conditions with a WCF of a Brrr of 18F. @Jaster: do you have any pics of the snow you received yesterday? I have very traditional photo options, so usually I won't mess with minor events. A long way of telling you NOPE Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 GFS remains active. Storm around 28th.....another around the 1st....another piece of energy around the 4th.....and another big one around the 6th. Fantasy land baby. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 I have very traditional photo options, so usually I won't mess with minor events. A long way of telling you NOPE I figured, 1" to 1.5" is a little too extreme to take pics for this time of the year, unless you receive this snowfall amount in late September or early October, where snowfall is rare to occur. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 GFS remains active. Storm around 28th.....another around the 1st....another piece of energy around the 4th.....and another big one around the 6th. Fantasy land baby.I prefer reality Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 12z GEFS showing a 1-2 punch with a lead system on the 28th-29th... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016112112/gfs-ens_mslpa_us_33.png Then the bigger one around the 1st... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016112112/gfs-ens_mslpa_us_41.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 The 28th-29th storm on the GFS is a brutal windy cold rain...[/quote. Yeah all I see is cold rain on the gfs during that period Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 The 28th-29th storm on the GFS is a brutal windy cold rain...[/quote. Yeah all I see is cold rain on the gfs during that periodThe one right after it is showing snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 ..and for the record, JB doesn't hide it When it comes to snow, I am 61, going on 6 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 ..and for the record, JB doesn't hide it Lol. I think we can all agree. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 ame="GDR" post="165088" timestamp="1479752051"] The one right after it is showing snow.yes... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FarmerRick Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 ..and for the record, JB doesn't hide it Who is JB? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 Who is JB?a huge snow weenie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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