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Winter 2016 Medium to Long Range Discussion; 5+ days out

hlcater

By hlcater
in East of the Rockies

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Jaycee
Jaycee

I want it to snow as much as any of you, but this is ridiculous. Think about it, there are 3 low pressure systems at play, and we're still way out. Let alone the fact the GFS showed 40" yesterday, are

Money
Money

3rd and 15 with jay cutler as qb

OKwx2k4
OKwx2k4

At a quick glance, the weeklies looked like the analog 1978. Big pretty Aleutian low, -EPO lors of blocking in the sweet spot and weekly snowstorms from January 23 to the end of the run. The run of th

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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GEFS are crazy loaded with storm after storm as cutter season is upon us.  I think a lot of these storms will be cutting around my area early on but maybe as we flip into March we can see a shift farther south in the storm track.  It's conceivable that many places in the Plains/Midwest will reach normal snowfall totals by the end of met Winter if the next couple storms track just right.

 

00z GEFS...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017021900/gfs-ens_apcpna_us_6.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017021900/gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_8.png

 

 

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017021900/gfs-ens_apcpna_us_9.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017021900/gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_10.png

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hlcater Enthusiast

hlcater

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Yuck 2nd system on GFS is bad for eastern Nebraska this run. Going to be a long week! That being said, I don't remember ever seeing the pink shade for snowfall rates showing up on pivotal weather before around here. The 6z had a small intense area and the 12Z has a much larger area!

you sound like trump with all those exclamation points :)

2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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NEJeremy Newbie

NEJeremy

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the GFS has definitely changed starting with the 0Z last night. It still has the system Friday and it brings out a decent wave on Sunday. The what was the biggest storm on next Monday, is now going way south. In fact if the 06Z is right, no one here on the forum will really get anything from the Monday storm it's so far south. It shifted even further south from the 0Z run too. Now on the 06Z it shows ANOTHER storm right after that on Wednesday March 1st that buries NE, IA, and WI. Crazy parade of storms! I still say we will end up with 2" total here in Omaha :D

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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the GFS has definitely changed starting with the 0Z last night. It still has the system Friday and it brings out a decent wave on Sunday. The what was the biggest storm on next Monday, is now going way south. In fact if the 06Z is right, no one here on the forum will really get anything from the Monday storm it's so far south. It shifted even further south from the 0Z run too. Now on the 06Z it shows ANOTHER storm right after that on Wednesday March 1st that buries NE, IA, and WI. Crazy parade of storms! I still say we will end up with 2" total here in Omaha :D

LOL, Omaha dome in the mix???  I dunno, GEFS are are looking decent for the whole state of NE as we roll into March.  Maybe Jim Flowers won't bust on his snow forecast after all if this parade of storms transpires.  Late Winter/Early Spring are notorious for targeting the Plains and the PNA is going to be pretty solidly negative allowing for cutters.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gif

 

 

 

With some blocking near Greenland and a big "if" the AO trends negative in March, it certainly paints a wintry period forthcoming.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

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NEJeremy Newbie

NEJeremy

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My point grid forecast already has just "snow" for the forecast on Friday. Hopefully the changeover occurs early enough to get some accumulations. Temps look to be marginal and it shows a low of 32 Thursday night and high of 36 on Friday. With how warm it has been and will be this week, there will be some melting. I'll be disappointed if that Monday system goes way south. I already told my wife who's a teacher, about possible snow days Friday and Monday. Probably jinxed Omaha :P

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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Tom might finally get his storm mid next week.

TBH, I'm ok if I miss it but wouldn't mind seeing some snow before I head out west for the Spring.  The weather isn't really cooperating out there lately with tons of rain in AZ as Mother Nature is putting a wrench into Spring Training season.  We were spoiled the last 3 years with insanely beautiful weather and ample sunshine from Feb-May.

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