Winter 2016 Medium to Long Range Discussion; 5+ days out

[gosaints]

One only has to click to hour 264 on the GFS to get a below normal temp after today

[Jaycee]

This is a bad pattern for us in Nebraska so far. It's drying out like crazy here, got me really nervous.

[Money]

One only has to click to hour 264 on the GFS to get a below normal temp after today

You really want warm temps

[gosaints]

You really want warm temps

So far so good....  Tell me the last time long range models didnt overdue cold both in duration and intensity.

 

Take for instance todays EURO and then compare to todays EPS and you see they are on different planets

[Tom]

Subtle changes on the GFS in the medium range?  Adjusting the baroclinic zone back to the north??

 

I mean thats a blowtorch to end next week

Good luck...haven't seen you ride the GFS so hard before...tossing the last 12z Euro run???  Shows you below normal 6 out of the next 10 days.  To make matters even better...it has a snowstorm the same day you referenced the GFS show torch!

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017030312/ecmwf_T850_us_8.png

'

 

 

vs

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017030312/gfs_T850_us_29.png

 

 

 

Models will definitely struggle where to place the baro zone with extreme arctic cold trying to fight the LRC's long wave ridge.  

[Tom]

12z EPS are trending colder for next week...I haven't seen such big shifts in the EPS from the current Day 7 comparing it to what it was showing 3 days ago.  It's been correcting the strength of the Alaskan Ridge

[gosaints]

Good luck...haven't seen you ride the GFS so hard before...tossing the last 12z Euro run???  Shows you below normal 6 out of the next 10 days.  To make matters even better...it has a snowstorm the same day you referenced the GFS show torch!

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017030312/ecmwf_T850_us_8.png

'

 

 

vs

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017030312/gfs_T850_us_29.png

 

 

 

Models will definitely struggle where to place the baro zone with extreme arctic cold trying to fight the LRC's long wave ridge.  

I am not riding any one model run  I am riding the pattern that has been locked in place and the fact that models have overdone cold in intensity and duration all season (can that be argued?).  Yep the 12z EURO shows cold... actually 4 out of 10 days below normal (I just looked at the 2m temps) and it is still solidly above normal overall... #winning

[Money]

I am not riding any one model run  I am riding the pattern that has been locked in place and the fact that models have overdone cold in intensity and duration all season (can that be argued?).  Yep the 12z EURO shows cold... actually 4 out of 10 days below normal (I just looked at the 2m temps) and it is still solidly above normal overall... #winning

 

You've been riding the Euro's a** when it was showing warm temps...

[Money]

I am not riding any one model run  I am riding the pattern that has been locked in place and the fact that models have overdone cold in intensity and duration all season (can that be argued?).  Yep the 12z EURO shows cold... actually 4 out of 10 days below normal (I just looked at the 2m temps) and it is still solidly above normal overall... #winning

 

It also shows 1-2 feet of snow with 2 snowstorms for you, but yeah let's pretend you never rode the euro's a** when it was showing warm temps..

[Money]

Oh, and the Euro ens have one of the snowiest looks to it all winter. Cold and snow for a lot of areas here. The same Euro ens. you were riding just a few days ago but now you will say "I wasn't talking about just one run."

[gosaints]

Oh, and the Euro ens have one of the snowiest looks to it all winter. Cold and snow for a lot of areas here. The same Euro ens. you were riding just a few days ago but now you will say "I wasn't talking about just one run."

Have I struck a nerve? Have models overdone cold in duration and intensity?

And yes it can certainly snow here and be above normal. Ill gladly take 2 feet.

[gosaints]

It also shows 1-2 feet of snow with 2 snowstorms for you, but yeah let's pretend you never rode the euro's a** when it was showing warm temps..

1-2 feet??

 EPS on a different planet than the GEFS.  GPES on the EPS side.

Weeklies show cold from day 25-35.

[gosaints]

EPS really that snowy..  I mean 3-4 inches through day 16?  Hour 200 cold....

[Money]

12z Euro with a major snowstorm for Chicago at HR 168-180

 

8-12+ 

[Money]

EPS really that snowy..  I mean 3-4 inches through day 16?  Hour 200 cold....

 

God, you're ******* annoying.

 

I was talking about 12z euro run from yesterday which showed 12-24 inches of snow in spots through HR 240.

[gosaints]

God, you're ******* annoying.

 

I was talking about 12z euro run from yesterday which showed 12-24 inches of snow in spots through HR 240.

Lol is todays euro warmer than yesterdays at the same time? More like the gfs right?

[Money]

Lol is todays euro warmer than yesterdays at the same time? More like the gfs right?

So now you are humping the gfs which you just bashed two days ago

[gosaints]

So now you are humping the gfs which you just bashed two days ago

Ill say it again I am humping models overdoing cold in the 7-14 day range... Ill wait for proof that this is wrong

[Money]

Ill say it again I am humping models overdoing cold in the 7-14 day range... Ill wait for proof that this is wrong

That is not what you said a few days ago but ok

[gosaints]

That is not what you said a few days ago but ok

Proof... What did I say.. I think I said the GFS was overdoing the cold in the long range was I not??

[Money]

Proof... What did I say.. I think I said the GFS was overdoing the cold in the long range was I not??

 

You said the euro performs a lot better than GEFS, and how it will cave to the euro in the longrange 

[gosaints]

You said the euro performs a lot better than GEFS, and how it will cave to the euro in the longrange

The GEFS is a joke... UR right... have you paid attention to the gefs in the long range?

[Money]

http://www.weather.gov/images/mkx/top-news/2017/Climate%20Summaries/WinterSummary/Winter1617Climate.png

[gimmesnow]

This thread is getting heated, but you forget my pessimism about weather is stronger than gfs, eggs, Euro,ukie, combined. It will snow, no snowmobile trails will open here, and the ski hills will close. This winter has always been about worst case scenarios and that's the worst one for me. Obviously it'll get warm and rain and mess up the tens of thousands of dollars of snow the resorts here made the last week first, though. But after the damage is done, it'll snow nice and hard on us.

[Tom]

There is still a lot of uncertainty for this week on where the storm track sets up but it looks like Mother Nature is trying to give us some "pay back" for a torchy Feb.  One of the reasons why I don't like very warm winter months because usually the Spring months (when it counts) are not that nice.  Thus far, Chicago has registered 3 days this month with snow flakes flying and I bet this is not the last time we see this.

 

Looking ahead, GEFS are looking more wintry next week where the baro zone has been active this Winter...

 

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gefs/2017030506/186/snod.conus.png

[Money]

12z gfs with a lot more blocking for the Fri/Sat system

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017030512/138/prateptype_cat.conus.png

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017030512/144/prateptype_cat.conus.png

[Money]

Through 150:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017030512/150/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[Money]

It then brings in another system a few days later that just crushes eastern MN through central/NW WI

 

Gets the system down to 972 in the eastern UP area.

 

Total snows through 210 of 30-36 inches in MN.

[Money]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017030512/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_33.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017030512/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_34.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017030512/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_35.png

[Money]

Def. looks cold in the extended on the GFS.

 

Freezing line down to southern IL/N. TN at 240

[Tom]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017030512/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_33.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017030512/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_34.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017030512/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_35.png

That is a storm that would be just fun to see unfold. Teleconnections during this period favor a wound up storm somewhere. March continues to roar like a Lion on the models.

[Money]

#snow

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017030512/210/snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

 

Ukie is farther south like GFS for the Fri/Sat system:

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif

[Money]

GEM on the other hand.....

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2017030512/204/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[Tom]

This board is going to light up this week starting tomorrow with some Spring time storms. I'd if by March/April many of us on here end up near normal in snow fall or above when all sudden done.

[Money]

This board is going to light up this week starting tomorrow with some Spring time storms. I'd s**t if by March/April many of us on here end up near normal in snow fall or above when all sudden done.

 

March is usually filled with wild swings and big storms. If someone can be on the snowy side of the systems, could be some nice totals. 

[Tom]

March is usually filled with wild swings and big storms. If someone can be on the snowy side of the systems, could be some nice totals. 

What a whacky winter.  Some of the most famous winter storms have formed in March, so yes, whoever ends up on the wintry side could be in for a wild ride.  The way the pattern is heading and the amount of brutal cold in Canada and very warm spring air coming up from the south, the clash of 2 seasons is positioned to spark some atmospheric fireworks.

[Tom]

Today's 12z GFS/GGEM runs show 3 wintry systems, (not including Monday's storms),  starting this Wed/Thu up north followed by a larger one Fri/Sat and then a potential big dog next Mon/Tue.   

[Money]

12z GFS Ensembles look similar to the OP for Fri system.

[NEJeremy]

GFS is north like everything else has been this winter and Canadian hasn't been worth anything. I'm sticking with what's been happening ALL winter including February where it was supposed to be a month to remember for cold and snowstorms, not all time record warmth. Let's just get to May already.

[Tom]

Haven't seen a block like this all season long...Spring shenanigons???  

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gefs/2017030512/156/500h_anom.na.png