Winter 2016 Medium to Long Range Discussion; 5+ days out

[Tom]

What are teleconnections favoring for next weekends system? I am just going to assume it will miss my area to the north so I'm not too worried about it, but my parents live in northern Iowa so they could get hit.

GEFS trending with a -AO/NAO...

[Money]

Chicago with 14-16 through 141 and still snowing.

 

A bit of a south shift with the snowband this run

[Tom]

0z GFS looking similar to 18z for Sat system.

 

Already 12+ inches of snow in N. IA through 132

Better organized storm his run...

[Tom]

Chicago with 14-16 through 141 and still snowing.

 

A bit of a south shift with the snowband this run

Cold storm if your on the wintry side...temps in the mid 20's

[Money]

GEM has no storm at all. Really suppressed. 

[Money]

Cold storm if your on the wintry side...temps in the mid 20's

 

GFS has ratios between 14-16:1 for Chicago with 2M temps around 24/25

[Tom]

00z GFS...

[Money]

0z GFS:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017030600/144/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[Andrew NE]

Nice run for chitown - hope you get nailed Tom!

[Money]

It has another system a few days later again.

 

Chicago approaching 22 inches through 198 

[Tom]

Nice run for chitown - hope you get nailed Tom!

Only 3-4 more days to go before I actually start getting excited about it. Hope it happens!

[Tom]

Next weekends potential system will effect St. Patty's Day festivities.

[BrianJK]

Sorry, but I really have to chuckle at all this - at least for the Chicago area. I'm looking forward to seeing how everything pans out and comparing to all the model runs leading up. My guess is MKE and north event. Hopefully nobody gets overly-invested this early in the game. Time will tell....

[Money]

Ukie with no storm either

[hlcater]

Only 3-4 more days to go before I actually start getting excited about it. Hope it happens!

I gotta fly out of O'Hare on Saturday so no thanks!

[james1976]

Looks like the brunt would come during the day Saturday. Would be fun if it panned out.

[Money]

Euro is farther south but has a more organized system this run and nails SE IA into central IL with 6-12+

[Grizzcoat]

Euro

 

[Money]

Euro has a 1044 H in the Dakotas which pretty much suppresses this thing. GFS is a bit weaker with the high and allows the storm to cut more north. 

[Money]

Euro has that other system that nails Iowa/S. WI and Chicago.

 

8-12+ from Iowa into IL and 6-8 in S. WI and S. MN

[Grizzcoat]

With the first system--- one would think N and that the Euro is out of it-- but the Euro did much better then the GFS with the last system 10-14 days ago when MPLS got the shaft...

[Money]

With the first system--- one would think N and that the Euro is out of it-- but the Euro did much better then the GFS with the last system 10-14 days ago when MPLS got the shaft...

 

Euro surface pressure looks kind of odd tbh. It has the low pretty far south even though the freezing line is all the way up in Chicago at the time. Who knows though. Still 5-6 days out. 

[Money]

Here's HR 120 and you can kind of see what I mean:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017030600/120/sfcmslp.conus.png

 

You would think the low would be farther north in KS compared to eastern NM at that time. There's a band of precip in MN/WI with freezing line from northern IA into Chicago. 

[Grizzcoat]

06Z GFS--- first system

[Grizzcoat]

Euro Control-

[Grizzcoat]

GGEM never got posted last night. here it is.

[james1976]

Euro is showing the 2nd storm too?

[Grizzcoat]

Euro is showing the 2nd storm too?

Yeah-- it's further North then the 1st one.

[Grizzcoat]

Where is that one day wonder goofball that said 90's were coming about a week ago??

[gosaints]

Been awhile since sheared out supression has been on the table

[Madtown]

Not this year...lol

[Tom]

JB posted this tweet from the 06z GEFS 16 Day snowfall mean...

 

[Tom]

From AER, using the 00z GFS 6-10 day mean...

 

[Tom]

Fantastic weather expected over the desert SW from Spring Training but Winter returns to the East...00z Euro Day 6-10 temp mean...where was this all winter???   I mean, that has the look of a classic Nina pattern.

 

[gosaints]

Fantastic weather expected over the desert SW from Spring Training but Winter returns to the East...00z Euro Day 6-10 temp mean...where was this all winter??? I mean, that has the look of a classic Nina pattern.

 

Ill be in the valley over easter....

[Tom]

Ill be in the valley over easter....

In the PHX area???

[gosaints]

In the PHX area???

Mesa will be our base

[Tom]

Mesa will be our base

Nice..it's a great time of year in mid April.  Hopefully it wont' get to hot by then bc it can get into the 90's and that is a wee bit toasty.

[gosaints]

Nice..it's a great time of year in mid April.  Hopefully it wont' get to hot by then bc it can get into the 90's and that is a wee bit toasty.

Ya 90s would take a couple days to get used to plenty of fluids.. Lots of hiking and golfing...

[gosaints]

System 1 looking like wagons south.. Money gonna have to start pulling hard the other way