December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Perturbed Member]

That's going to look much different tomorrow. Significantly warmer Thursday and beyond. Highs in the 40s or warmer.

 

I'll wait for the euro.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I can't believe no one can see what a disaster the 00z GFS was but me.

I do, but given I won't be here I'm not to upset. The trend is pretty apparent

[snow_wizard]

I am with you Jesse.. this isn't exactly the pattern going forward that we're looking for. 24-36 hours ago it looked cold/dry with reinforcing shots of cold air right up until Christmas which obviously gives us the chance for things to change from cold/dry to maybe cold/snowy... now things are slipping too far east and the pattern turns very progressive with low pressure dominating the aleutians.

This less than stellar outcome has some time to change though.

 

The believable range is excellent for us.  Let us have some fun.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Two days ago Sunday through Tuesday looked cold here. Now highs in the 40s in the valley. Later next week may unfortunately trend this way

[snow_wizard]

God people get touchy in these situations.  I'm just as guilty (see yesterday).

[Kayla]

Screw it, I'm moving to Bozeman.

 

[Perturbed Member]

Not Marks Forecast.

 

Mark pretty much always makes the forecast at KPTV regardless of who is actually on TV. A lot of those so called "mets" are just glorified reporeters/presenters who just relay Mark's forecast.

[MikeBC]

The border is having bipolar weather this weekend. We have been dealing with winds, rain, snow, and freezing rain on the same weekend. I am wondering if they are the weather we used to have. I wasn't living in the 70's and before.

[snow_wizard]

The ensemble is still solidly cold for days.  Good enough for me right now.

[luvssnow_spokane]

The system on day 5 is orgasmic for us.  I'm trying to not get too stoked though.

OkAY!!  THE way Jesse was reacting I thought we were going tropic. It sounds like this is like some of those historic event were 100 miles either is epic snow storm while south is deluging rain and 50 degrees ?? ... Living on the edge if so as this can be super dangerous to screw everyone.

[Brennan]

The believable range is excellent for us. Let us have some fun.

See my edit to my original post

[Jesse]

The ensemble is still solidly cold for days. Good enough for me right now.

This is good news.

[snow_wizard]

The border is having bipolar weather this weekend. We have been dealing with winds, rain, snow, and freezing rain on the same weekend. I am wondering if they are the weather we used to have. I wasn't living in the 70's and before.

 

This has an old time feel to it.

 

This could in fact just all be a warning shot.  That would actually be good for the long run.

[luvssnow_spokane]

I am with you Jesse.. this isn't exactly the pattern going forward that we're looking for. 24-36 hours ago it looked cold/dry with reinforcing shots of cold air right up until Christmas which obviously gives us the chance for things to change from cold/dry to maybe cold/snowy... now things are slipping too far east and the pattern turns very progressive with low pressure dominating the aleutians.

This less than stellar outcome has some time to change though.

 

P.s the next 5 days look pretty good to me...

If that is the case .... Then the long term does look to suck.  I wish I could see the models. 

[Kayla]

Mark pretty much always makes the forecast at KPTV regardless of who is actually on TV. A lot of those so called "mets" are just glorified reporeters/presenters who just relay Mark's forecast.

 

Not quite, I wish that were true though!

[snow_wizard]

OkAY!!  THE Jesse was reacting I thought we were going tropic. It sounds like this is like some of those historic event were 100 miles either is epic snow storm while south is deluging rain and 50 degrees ?? ... Living on the edge if so as this can be super dangerous to screw everyone.

 

The mositure has always been my concern with this.  The cold is pretty much a done deal.  The ensemble is ROCK solid.

[snow_wizard]

If that is the case .... Then the long term does look to suck.  I wish I could see the models. 

 

If the next 7 days verify we will all be smoking cigars and reflecting on how great it was.  Time for more later.

[Jesse]

God people get touchy in these situations. I'm just as guilty (see yesterday).

I was looking forward to some cold and dry weather coming up. I didn't even care if the majority of the really cold air went east, we would have still been able to get a really good cold pool going on the east side with all the snowcover. We were going to have a prolonged winter period that felt like winter for the first time in three years.

 

Now after the unspeakable tragedy that was the 00z GFS, it is clear that the southern steam will break though, with energy digging deep offshore, and spoil our party with copious amounts of 55 degree rain.

[Timmy]

I get over a foot of snow in the next 140 hours on the 00z gfs. Pdx looks to get some as well

[snow_wizard]

This is the snowfall through day 6.

 

 

[luvssnow_spokane]

I was looking forward to some cold and dry weather coming up. I didn't even care if the majority of the really cold air went east, we would have still been able to get a really good cold pool going on the east side with all the snowcover. We were going to have a prolonged winter period that felt like winter for the first time in three years.

 

Now after the unspeakable tragedy that was the 00z GFS, it is clear that the southern steam will break though, with energy digging deep offshore, and spoil our party with copious amounts of 55 degree rain.

 

Now I am confused    <_ src="%7B___base_url___%7D/uploads/emoticons/default_huh.png" alt=":huh:"> ... Cold and snow, Warm and rain?? Which is it?... Referring to a trend? Models will only trend warmer?  Sorry I can not see the models as they are not loading.

[Jesse]

Can anyone post the 00z ensemble chart for PDX? It isn't updating for me.

[snow_wizard]

I was looking forward to some cold and dry weather coming up. I didn't even care if the majority of the really cold air went east, we would have still been able to get a really good cold pool going on the east side with all the snowcover. We were going to have a prolonged winter period that felt like winter for the first time in three years.

 

Now after the unspeakable tragedy that was the 00z GFS, it is clear that the southern steam will break though, with energy digging deep offshore, and spoil our party with copious amounts of 55 degree rain.

 

Huge overreaction.

 

The models don't capture the low level cold real well.  Still very decent.

[BLI snowman]

I was looking forward to some cold and dry weather coming up. I didn't even care if the majority of the really cold air went east, we would have still been able to get a really good cold pool going on the east side with all the snowcover. We were going to have a prolonged winter period that felt like winter for the first time in three years.

 

Now after the unspeakable tragedy that was the 00z GFS, it is clear that the southern steam will break though, with energy digging deep offshore, and spoil our party with copious amounts of 55 degree rain.

 

 

Looks like 1950 is gonna have some competition if the 00z verifies. And I don't mean January of that year.

[kokaneekidz]

The pattern is very La Nina-ish and will continue to be so. Don't worry about the pineapples they will stay in Hawaii where they're supposed to. It is going to be very 80's ish. Turn on some Steve Winwood and chill.

[snow_wizard]

Now I am confused      ... Cold and snow, Warm and rain?? Which is it?... Referring to a trend? that the models will only trend warmer?  Sorry I can not see the models as they are not loading.

 

Cold for about a week and then milder.  I can live with that considering how early it is.

[Jesse]

Huge overreaction.

 

The models don't capture the low level cold real well. Still very decent.

I hope people are picking up on the fact that I am being slightly tongue in cheek right now.

 

Still a terrible trend though. The ensembles and the Euro will be telling!!!

[snow_wizard]

Can anyone post the 00z ensemble chart for PDX? It isn't updating for me.

[snow_wizard]

I hope people are picking up on the fact that I am being slightly tongue in cheek right now.

 

Still a terrible trend though. The ensembles and the Euro will be telling!!!

 

 

I still say you are kind of missing the big message of the next week.  Still a very cold ensemble run.

[Jesse]

 

 

Can anyone post the 00z ensemble chart for PDX? It isn't updating for me.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

That's for the much superior 18z run. Back when life was good.

[snow_wizard]

Oops...that is still the 18z ensemble.

[HighlandExperience]

This is the snowfall through day 6.

 

I'm liking that!!!! Plus it shows our area in King County getting blasted. I will take it with a grain of salt for now. =) But that would be some serious redemption after this past week. 

 

Edit: Please post the ECMWF later when it comes out. 

[Timmy]

Oops...that is still the 18z ensemble.

it says 00z for me

[Jesse]

it says 00z for me

It updated. He must have hosted the image.

[Perturbed Member]

God people get touchy in these situations.  I'm just as guilty (see yesterday).

 

No shame in being passionate about this stuff, it's going to happen.

[snow_wizard]

The funny thing even after it warms up it's still mostly below normal for the entire next two weeks. Time for some people to have a couple of shots or a valium.

[snow_wizard]

Looks like 1950 is gonna have some competition if the 00z verifies. And I don't mean January of that year.

Looks like cool and very snowy in the mountains for week two. Nothing wrong with that after a week of cold weather.

[bainbridgekid]

The moisture appears more robust with this scenario.

Probably true. Especially if the 18z and 00z GFS are onto something.

 

I'm really interested to see how the WRF handles the 925mb level as well as moisture along the arctic front. 

 

Operational looked undeniably dynamic moisturewise, but like pretty borderline temperatures to me on Monday.  Rain to snow events are fun though as long as they don't waste too much moisture as rain.

 

I'm definitely liking my chances more here for this Monday than I was last Monday. Kind of ironic since the WRF showed me getting over a foot with that one less than 2 days out.

[North_County]

This was a nice surprise to come home to after spending the day in Bellingham staring at bare/wet roads and watching the snow melt.

 

Looks like the cold air didn't make it much beyond the border. Most of the snow was gone south of highway 546.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Euro says no...  Just cold