Jump to content

December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

stuffradio

By stuffradio
in West of the Rockies

 Share

Recommended Posts

Farmboy Collaborator

Farmboy

Posted
Posted

One of the most depressing AFD's from Seattle I have ever read. Seems like they are almost gitty that our snow chances are next to zero. At least we still have January! 

They are wrong.  They will be eating their AFD...

"Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness."

Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Replies 19.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

  • SilverFallsAndrew

    1638

  • Deweydog

    1383

  • snow_wizard

    1164

  • TT-SEA

    1093

Popular Days

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Popular Posts

MR.SNOWMIZER
MR.SNOWMIZER

Been a emotional day.. First time in 27 years i went and picked a Christmas tree without my woman but me and my son made the best of it and had a good time. Its been a real test as a father dealing wi

jaya
jaya

Well, I don't have access to everything that I'd like to look at. With that said, tonight will be tricky with the strong offshore flow. I've seen it go both ways. In one case in 2014 I believe, models

Gradient Keeper
Gradient Keeper

I wish you all a Merry Christmas. I hope you can find joy and happiness. Appreciate the ones you have with you during this Holiday season.   http://i.imgur.com/fhWgu21.jpg

Posted Images

TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted

Looks like Bainbridge's dream of a snowy Christmas in the Midwest have vanished.    He should take a road trip to North Dakota!  

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016122112/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_18.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites
SilverFallsAndrew Grand Master

SilverFallsAndrew

Posted
Posted

As Solomon once said "there is nothing new under the sun."

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
SilverFallsAndrew Grand Master

SilverFallsAndrew

Posted
Posted

Looks like Bainbridge's dream of a snowy Christmas in the Midwest have vanished. He should take a road trip to North Dakota!

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016122112/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_18.png

Just like ours!

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted

Just like ours!

 

 

At least it will be dry and chilly and probably sunny here.    Better than rain and 50 degrees with a strong south wind!   That is the normal Christmas weather here... but this year the Midwest gets a taste of that crap.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites
SilverFallsAndrew Grand Master

SilverFallsAndrew

Posted
Posted

The 12z shows 6"+ for me

It may show snow for me, but I am really focused on chances for Jim, Jesse, and the Swamp, so I didn't even look

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
SilverFallsAndrew Grand Master

SilverFallsAndrew

Posted
Posted

At least it will be dry and chilly and probably sunny here. Better than rain and 50 degrees with a strong south wind! That is the normal Christmas weather here... but this year the Midwest gets a taste of that crap.

Hahahhaha

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
SilverFallsAndrew Grand Master

SilverFallsAndrew

Posted
Posted

Many biblical historians believe strongly he was one of the first weather weenies. Tracked the 528dm line religiously.

He did say there is a season for everything

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted

12z GFS keeps with the idea of 2-3 inches falling on Tuesday.

 

 

The weekend snow has high bust potential if the precip is not heavy enough... easily could be all light rain.    And the Tuesday system is a quick transition with a blast of southerly winds during the day.   

 

12Z ECMWF will be interesting.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites
TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted

And then we have the 12Z Canadian... going even further south than its own 00Z run and we are looking at just 2 days from now.   Unbelievably bad model agreement.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016122112/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_10.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites
TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted

Every region of the globe is capable of snow except King County

 

 

I am in King County.   In the dead center of King County actually.   I can report that it does snow here.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites
MossMan Grand Master

MossMan

Posted
Posted

Maybe we can get the +PNA stuff out of the way early...

Looking like a spike is coming! And a far cry from the major tankage it was showing a few days ago. 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
MossMan Grand Master

MossMan

Posted
Posted

I thought +PNA did not matter? D**n it!!! I am so confused!!!  

From my experience the biggest ingredient you need if you are hoping for cold and snow is a -PNA.

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted

The 12Z WRF appears to be cold enough for lowland snow in the Puget Sound region beginning at 4 p.m. on Friday which is great... except it shows no precipitation.     I am guessing that has to be wrong given the operational GFS run.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites
luvssnow_spokane Community Regular

luvssnow_spokane

Posted
Posted

I am in King County.   In the dead center of King County actually.   I can report that it does snow here.   

LOL.. I could not really call you a good representation for the majority of King county... What is your elevation there?  LOL!!

My Weather Station

https://tempestwx.com/station/61434

Link to comment
Share on other sites
TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted

LOL.. I could not really call you a good representation for the majority of King county... What is your elevation there?  LOL!!

 

I would guess half the county is higher than my location.    So I am about at the mean elevation for the county.  :)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
×
 Share
Go to topic listing
×
×
  • Create New...