epiceast Posted January 29, 2017 Report Share Posted January 29, 2017 Looks like I have a good chance at passing 5' this season with the snow this coming week.Only If I get robbed and don't get my 4' instead. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 29, 2017 Report Share Posted January 29, 2017 According to NWS Seattle we have great news!! The airmass will be dry so any mention of snow in the lowlands have been dropped!! Isn't that just wonderful!!! I'm so happy!!! And my wife mentioned that she noticed the grass ( where we still have grass) is startling to grow! Let it spring Let it spring Let it spring!! Nice! I'm guessing the freezing temperatures the last several mornings and the coming snow will keep our grass at bay for a little while yet! Let it winter!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 29, 2017 Report Share Posted January 29, 2017 Looks like I have a good chance at passing 5' this season with the snow this coming week.I have an excellent chance of not surpassing my 4 inches!! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 29, 2017 Report Share Posted January 29, 2017 It'll probably snow next week. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 29, 2017 Report Share Posted January 29, 2017 I have an excellent chance of not surpassing my 4 inches!! You will probably get a sloppy foot in early March. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 29, 2017 Report Share Posted January 29, 2017 Month to date. Very impressively cold month over both Oregon and Washington. At least we have all been sharing the love with the cold! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
epiceast Posted January 29, 2017 Report Share Posted January 29, 2017 Looks Like GEM is staying the course, hopefully Euro does the same. Only GFS pushes the boundary way south after the first day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
epiceast Posted January 29, 2017 Report Share Posted January 29, 2017 Month to date. Very impressively cold month over both Oregon and Washington. At least we have all been sharing the love with the cold! IMG_8869.PNGI kinda hate the purple anomaly over myself, would rather have that for precipitation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted January 29, 2017 Report Share Posted January 29, 2017 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2017012912/gem_asnow_nwus_20.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017012912/gfs_asnow_nwus_25.png 12z NAM is fairly generous with pushing in the cold air fairly far south. Does show some light snow in the area by hr78 before the main precip. 850mb temps are really marginal on all models though. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 29, 2017 Report Share Posted January 29, 2017 I honestly wish the Puget Sound region could have scored something this month. It kind of sucks experiencing the best January in years regionally and realizing that everyone up north will forever refer to it with bitterness and vitriol since, by purely dumb luck, it failed to snow in the relatively narrow corridor that is of utmost importance to so many. Just a slightly better setup (a degree or two colder up there) on 1/9-1/10 would have made all the difference in how this month was viewed by Sounders. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 29, 2017 Report Share Posted January 29, 2017 I honestly wish the Puget Sound region could have scored something this month. It kind of sucks experiencing the best January in years regionally and realizing that everyone up north will forever refer to it with bitterness and vitriol since, by purely dumb luck, it failed to snow in the relatively narrow corridor that is of utmost importance to so many. Just a slightly better setup (a degree or two colder up there) on 1/9-1/10 would have made all the difference in how this month was viewed by Sounders.Always next year. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 29, 2017 Report Share Posted January 29, 2017 Always next year. As Andrew once wisely mentioned, good Januaries tend to come in bunches historically! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 29, 2017 Report Share Posted January 29, 2017 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2017012912/gem_asnow_nwus_20.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017012912/gfs_asnow_nwus_25.png 12z NAM is fairly generous with pushing in the cold air fairly far south. Does show some light snow in the area by hr78 before the main precip. 850mb temps are really marginal on all models though.Anyone north of the 540 thickness line will be cold enough for snow. It's a low level seepage event with the actual arctic boundary well to the north, so the 850mb temps are largely irrelevant as long as they stay below freezing. The winners will be those just north of the 540 line, where frontogenesis will be maximized along the lower level boundary. Looking like a fairly narrow area at this point, likely between Salem and Olympia. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted January 29, 2017 Report Share Posted January 29, 2017 http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/2017012912/images_d2/or_snow48.132.0000.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 29, 2017 Report Share Posted January 29, 2017 As Andrew once wisely mentioned, good Januaries tend to come in bunches historically!Yep. I would bet January 18 or 19 will good. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 29, 2017 Report Share Posted January 29, 2017 I honestly wish the Puget Sound region could have scored something this month. It kind of sucks experiencing the best January in years regionally and realizing that everyone up north will forever refer to it with bitterness and vitriol since, by purely dumb luck, it failed to snow in the relatively narrow corridor that is of utmost importance to so many. Just a slightly better setup (a degree or two colder up there) on 1/9-1/10 would have made all the difference in how this month was viewed by Sounders.If you're just looking at January, that snowless corridor extends north thru southern BC. The 4" here was an outlier on the high ends. Most people got nothing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 29, 2017 Report Share Posted January 29, 2017 If you're just looking at January, that snowless corridor extends north thru southern BC. The 4" here was an outlier on the high ends. Most people got nothing. Yup, almost a solid 5% of the Pacific Northwest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 29, 2017 Report Share Posted January 29, 2017 Yup, almost a solid 5% of the Pacific Northwest.Where many of us up here live. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted January 29, 2017 Report Share Posted January 29, 2017 Yup, almost a solid 5% of the Pacific Northwest. Problem is that is where most people live. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted January 29, 2017 Report Share Posted January 29, 2017 If you're just looking at January, that snowless corridor extends north thru southern BC. The 4" here was an outlier on the high ends. Most people got nothing. For places north of Centralia this winter will mostly be forgettable. Unless something amazing happens between now and beginning of March. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 29, 2017 Report Share Posted January 29, 2017 I honestly wish the Puget Sound region could have scored something this month. It kind of sucks experiencing the best January in years regionally and realizing that everyone up north will forever refer to it with bitterness and vitriol since, by purely dumb luck, it failed to snow in the relatively narrow corridor that is of utmost importance to so many. Just a slightly better setup (a degree or two colder up there) on 1/9-1/10 would have made all the difference in how this month was viewed by Sounders.Thank you for your honesty. Up until now I assumed you wished only horrible things for our neighbors to the north. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 29, 2017 Report Share Posted January 29, 2017 Thank you for your honesty. Up until now I assumed you wished only horrible things for our neighbors to the north. I think you are confusing me with Andrew. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 29, 2017 Report Share Posted January 29, 2017 Problem is that is where most people live. Centralia to Medford has a decent chunk of population too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted January 29, 2017 Report Share Posted January 29, 2017 Anyone north of the 540 thickness line will be cold enough for snow. It's a low level seepage event with the actual arctic boundary well to the north, so the 850mb temps are largely irrelevant as long as they stay below freezing. The winners will be those just north of the 540 line, where frontogenesis will be maximized along the lower level boundary. Looking like a fairly narrow area at this point, likely between Salem and Olympia. Don't think it is a given that 850s will remain below freezing but I'm not sure how much of an issue 1c at 850mb is if the rest of the column is below freezing. Seems most of the models might be putting that boundary somewhere between SW WA and SLE. This is reminding me of a much crapier and more marginal version of 1/11/2017. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 29, 2017 Report Share Posted January 29, 2017 I think you are confusing me with Andrew. It sounds like the weather equivalent of white guilt. The majority of western Washington lowlanders will see this winter as pretty cold but pretty forgettable. Ouch. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 29, 2017 Report Share Posted January 29, 2017 Where many of us up here live. That is a solid chunk. Just imagine the PNW as a cake and snow as frosting. If you cut the cake into 20 pieces and forgot to put frosting on one there would be at least one kid crying at the birthday party. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted January 29, 2017 Report Share Posted January 29, 2017 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 29, 2017 Report Share Posted January 29, 2017 It sounds like the weather equivalent of white guilt. The majority of western Washington lowlanders will see this winter as pretty cold but pretty forgettable. Ouch. I don't feel sorry for them so much as I do for us for having to deal with them throwing asterisks up every time we talk about this amazing winter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 29, 2017 Report Share Posted January 29, 2017 Don't think it is a given that 850s will remain below freezing but I'm not sure how much of an issue 1c at 850mb is if the rest of the column is below freezing. Seems most of the models might be putting that boundary somewhere between SW WA and SLE. This is reminding me of a much crapier and more marginal version of 1/11/2017.I saw they mentioned the 1-10 comparison, but this is more like 12-8 or 12-14, just a little crappier thanks to sun angles. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 29, 2017 Report Share Posted January 29, 2017 I should say cultural influencers We have Portlandia. Seattle hasn't had a major show since Frasier. And his apartment wasn't even physically possible. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 29, 2017 Report Share Posted January 29, 2017 Don't think it is a given that 850s will remain below freezing but I'm not sure how much of an issue 1c at 850mb is if the rest of the column is below freezing. Seems most of the models might be putting that boundary somewhere between SW WA and SLE. This is reminding me of a much crapier and more marginal version of 1/11/2017.The winner is likely going to be someone who stays in the -1c to -3c ballpark at 850mb, so very marginal at that level. Models tend to underdo deformation in these setups and these weak boundaries do tend to be very stubborn and slow-moving, so I imagine somebody will score 6" or more from it with a fairly prolonged event. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 29, 2017 Report Share Posted January 29, 2017 I don't feel sorry for them so much as I do for us for having to deal with them throwing asterisks up every time we talk about this amazing winter. True. I guess it's more like white supremacy. Just narrow your focus and avoid diversity. Put Sounders on ignore and you'll soon convince yourself this was a regional blockbuster. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 29, 2017 Report Share Posted January 29, 2017 That is a solid chunk. Just imagine the PNW as a cake and snow as frosting. If you cut the cake into 20 pieces and forgot to put frosting on one there would be at least one kid crying at the birthday party.Who puts frosting on a cake after it's been cut? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 29, 2017 Report Share Posted January 29, 2017 True. I guess it's more like white supremacy. Just narrow your focus and avoid diversity. Put Sounders on ignore and you'll soon convince yourself this was a regional blockbuster. Lets wait until March 15th to talk about how badly screwed Seattle got. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 29, 2017 Report Share Posted January 29, 2017 Lets wait until March 15th to talk about how badly screwed Seattle got.No love for the third week of March? Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 29, 2017 Report Share Posted January 29, 2017 We have Portlandia. Seattle hasn't had a major show since Frasier. And his apartment wasn't even physically possible.Portlandia? Never heard of it. Any good? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted January 29, 2017 Report Share Posted January 29, 2017 I saw they mentioned the 1-10 comparison, but this is more like 12-8 or 12-14, just a little crappier thanks to sun angles. I thought we were colder on 12/14 with the cold air already in place? The cold air racing south into the eastern sides of the cascades and then coming to us via the gorge with the low approaching from the SW reminds me more of 1/10 even though the details are a bit different. Pretty much a given that this won't be anywhere nearly as widespread though. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 29, 2017 Report Share Posted January 29, 2017 I saw they mentioned the 1-10 comparison, but this is more like 12-8 or 12-14, just a little crappier thanks to sun angles.Not too much like 12-8, that was a more traditional overrunning scenario. This will be about deformation along a stalled boundary, so inherently hard to predict. Fairly similar to what produced the storm in late February 2014 in Whatcom County, also quite similar to a setup in mid February 1980. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted January 29, 2017 Report Share Posted January 29, 2017 Not everyone, where is Heavy Snow?I'm here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 29, 2017 Report Share Posted January 29, 2017 I saw they mentioned the 1-10 comparison, but this is more like 12-8 or 12-14, just a little crappier thanks to sun angles. 1.25"? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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