January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[MossMan]

Looks like Seattle cracked 50 again today. This month is really losing its stance statistically.

Yeah this month is completely forgettable now, about as dull of weather as you can get since just before Christmas. Hopefully next winter will at least feature a windstorm or something...anything!

[Jesse]

Looks like Seattle cracked 50 again today. This month is really losing its stance statistically.

How is Shawnigan Lake faring?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like a 45/31 at SLE today.

[Jesse]

Looks like a 45/31 at SLE today.

KGW was wrong

[ShawniganLake]

How is Shawnigan Lake faring?

Fairly seasonal 44/31 here today. Overall on the month, Shawnigan is at 33.4 and Victoria is 36.1. Looks like most if not all stations around here will end January warmer than December. Still solidly below average for the winter to date.

[Jesse]

Fairly seasonal 44/31 here today. Overall on the month, Shawnigan is at 33.4 and Victoria is 36.1. Looks like most if not all stations around here will end January warmer than December. Still solidly below average for the winter to date.

Sounds chilly.

[Jesse]

39/34 at Eugene today.

[Guest Dome Buster]

Currently 12 here in Sunriver.  Cant believe how cold it is here and it just started dumping about 30 minutes ago.  What the hell is going on here?  A ridiculous micro-climate like I've never seen before!!!  Must be the disposition of the cold air pulling off the mink coats from Sunriver Lodge.

[Jesse]

Yeah this month is completely forgettable now, about as dull of weather as you can get since just before Christmas. Hopefully next winter will at least feature a windstorm or something...anything!

Muddy dogs.

[epiceast]

Most of the early/mid Holocene from 13,000 to 9,000 +/- 1000 years before present, and 7000 to 3500 +/- 500 years before present, was dominated by the +ENSO long term mode. The long term -ENSO mode dominated from 9000-7000 +/- 1000 years ago, and starting around 3500 +/- 500 years ago, the long term ENSO state began to decline again, and high frequency amplitude began to increase. There was a prolific +ENSO stretch about 1000yrs ago, however long term we're now headed down, and that increase 1000urs ago appears to be a mark of the increasing instability since then.

 

This is a great paper:

 

http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1999GMS...112..373C

 

The long term +ENSO mode tends to be more stable and feature a reduction in high frequency (yearly/decadal/centennial) variability, while the long term -ENSO mode tends to be more unstable and feature increased high frequency variability. The more stable, +ENSO mode tends to precede the termination of ice ages and rapid warnings into stable interglacial states, while the unstable -ENSO mode tends to precede the termination of interglacials and marks the initiation of glacial states.

Thanks for citing your stuff for once. I'll make sure to read that paper, it's really hard for me to tell how serious your posts are because they talk about stuff that isn't often talked about on the forum.

[Phil]

Thanks for citing your stuff for once. I'll make sure to read that paper, it's really hard for me to tell how serious your posts are because they talk about stuff that isn't often talked about on the forum.

Yeah, I usually don't cite common knowledge, since it's typically easy to find and verify. Obviously, paleoclimate is more hypothetical in nature, and is full of competing theories attempting to explain the oddities we see.

[ShawniganLake]

Sounds chilly.

For sure. Still some ice on the lake. An impressive start to January but has lost a lot of its punch recently. The Dec / Jan combo is going to be pretty notable overall.

[MossMan]

Muddy dogs.

Yep just like the last 5 January's!

[epiceast]

Yeah, I usually don't cite common knowledge, since it's typically easy to find and verify. Obviously, paleoclimate is more hypothetical in nature, and is full of competing theories attempting to explain the oddities we see.

Just because it's common knowledge, doesn't mean that more casual users(majority, and including me for the most part) of the forum understand things more complicated than indices like PDO, NAO, ENSO and the blend of models NWS offices use to forecast mid-range.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The 0z GFS has trended slightly further north again after the 18z; not a bad trend for the Puget Sound/SW BC if it keeps up. Still good enough for a brief transitional snow. The ECMWF, unlike the GFS, has been relatively consistent and I wouldn't be surprised if the GFS trended more toward the ECMWF solution. Tonight's ECMWF will be interesting.

[van city]

Wow, this place is busy.

[HighlandExperience]

Wow, this place is busy.

Everyone gave up on winter.

[van city]

Everyone gave up on winter.

Not everyone, where is Heavy Snow?

[HighlandExperience]

Not everyone, where is Heavy Snow?

Of course Portland people are having a great winter.

[BLI snowman]

Euro looks nice, just need a little more moisture midweek. 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The 0z ECMWF goes a little further south with the cold air at the start of the week but is much more aggressive with the low by Thursday. At face value this would be better for an overrunning snow than the previous run or what the GFS shows, and then there's this:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017012900/ecmwf_z500a_nhem_9.png

[umadbro]

Wow, this place is busy.

While my winter has been A+ in a valley. Its Saturday night. People do other things other than Obsess over one set of model runs. Weird, right?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like this will end up as the 4th coldest January on record at Baker City after their coldest December on record. This one will likely fall just behind 1949, 1979, and 1957 in that order. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looking at departures in the Willamette Valley, January should end up about -5 to -8. Pretty impressive. 

[Bryant]

While my winter has been A+ in a valley. Its Saturday night. People do other things other than Obsess over one set of model runs. Weird, right?

You still must have frozen fingers with how bad your grammar is.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Snow

[MossMan]

Snow

Puget Sound snow?

[ShawniganLake]

Puget Sound snow?

Haha. No.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Salem to PDX

[MossMan]

Looking at the latest PNA forecast I would say winter (even though it never started around the Puget Sound area) is pretty much wrapped up.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looking at the latest PNA forecast I would say winter (even though it never started around the Puget Sound area) is pretty much wrapped up.

I think February will be warm

[Jesse]

Looking at the latest PNA forecast I would say winter (even though it never started around the Puget Sound area) is pretty much wrapped up.

This should assure a chilly February.

 

You don't consider lakes with ice thick enough that you can skate on it winter?

[MossMan]

I think February will be warm

Sure is looking that way!

Well at least we are getting some pre frontal breeze gusts up here...I guess that is some form of weather! Super exciting and expect hourly updates on breeze damage.

[TT-SEA]

Some elk along the road just before dawn this morning...

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

March should be chilly

[MossMan]

This should assure a chilly February.

 

You don't consider lakes with ice thick enough that you can skate on it winter?

I like snow at my house.

[DRG]

Geez, I step away for a while and now all of a sudden frozen things are back on the table mid week?!?  I need to hang out with you guys more often...

 

Portland AFD:

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=PQR&issuedby=PQR&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

[Perturbed Member]

Models continue their
trend toward a more aggressive intrusion of cold air from British
Columbia into eastern WA/OR by the midweek period. Am still somewhat
skeptical of how fast some models are bringing in this cold air, but
it is impossible to ignore what has been a steady trend over the past
couple days` worth of model runs. As such, we made some fairly
dramatic changes to the forecast, bringing the threat of snow or
freezing rain west of the Cascades and into the north Willamette
Valley by Wed morning. This is far from a lock at this point, as
there are many pieces that need to come together to make snow/
freezing rain a reality in the PDX metro Wed. However, model trends
continue to gravitate towards bringing these ingredients together.

The northern stream system expected to push down the west coast of
Canada Mon night/Tue is moving faster and faster on latest model
runs. This system is now moving across the Aleutians, and will likely
gain some acceleration southeastward as it dumbbells around the low
associated with our current front. Also, the low currently
approaching the BC coast is expected to continue to strengthen or
merge with a larger system dropping down the crest of the Rockies
over the next 24-48 hours. Models now show decent agreement on this
system latching onto some decent cold air as longwave ridging begins
to develop over Alaska and flow turns increasingly northerly across
western Canada. The 00z ECMWF, GFS, and now NAM deterministic runs
now all show this. As mentioned in the short term discussion, the
squeeze between cold air from the north and milder air being pushed
northward by the low presently north of Hawaii will enhance
frontogenesis, eventually increasing precipitation along the frontal
zone Tue-Wed. Meanwhile, increasingly cold air will be damming down
the east slopes of the Cascades, and perhaps coming down the westside
via Fraser River outflow as well. By Wed night/Thu, most models get
very close to a snow sounding for Portland as precipitation
increases. If this all sounds very familiar to Jan 11, it
should...but there are some very notable differences. For one, the
eastside cold air is not nearly as cold, deep, or entrenched as it
was prior to that event. However, it does now appear that enough
low-level cold air will push through the Gorge to threaten at least
the East PDX Metro with some freezing rain Wed/Thu. Some models, such
as the 00z GFS, and even nearly the 00z ECMWF, suggest the cold air
may be deep enough to support snow in the Gorge and perhaps the
Portland area as well. We shall see.

Will highlight the same caveat I have the last couple mornings;
typically when there is a race between eastside cold air working its
way through the Gorge and moist/milder S-SW flow from the Pacific,
the cold air often arrives a little slower than modeled. At this
point, the most likely scenario appears to be a decent snow/ice event
for portions of the Columbia Gorge and Hood River Valley. Some
freezing rain will likely bleed into the East PDX Metro, bringing
some ice to Troutdale. However, snow/ice could either be much more or
less widespread based on how the details evolve with our backdoor
cold front.

[MossMan]

According to NWS Seattle we have great news!! The airmass will be dry so any mention of snow in the lowlands have been dropped!! Isn't that just wonderful!!! I'm so happy!!! And my wife mentioned that she noticed the grass ( where we still have grass) is startling to grow! Let it spring Let it spring Let it spring!!

[DareDuck]

Looks like I have a good chance at passing 5' this season with the snow this coming week.