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January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest


Goducks09
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I just looked at the initial 00z EURO ensemble members and they don't look good as as the majority of them send the midweek system into Northern California. If you live in Medford/Klamath Falls/Roseburg/Eugene/Bend you have better chances to score. Still a long ways out and will hope for the usual northward trend.

f3e7e3bf2f29b1e9cdb92d7e39e709f1.jpg

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lol I started this topic earlier and it got no replies. 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 16.1"
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"

Snow days: 10 - 4.8" - 3/12
Cold Highs (32 or below): 7
Coolest: 21 (Jan 7th)
Extreme Lows (below 10): 4 
Minimum: 5 (Jan 22nd)
Max wind: 40mph (Feb 18th)

Warm Season Stats

Thunders: 50
3/6, 3/23, 4/7, 4/11, 4/30, 5/1, 5/3, 5/6, 5/14, 5/16
5/20, 5/21, 5/27, 6/2, 6/6, 6/8, 6/13, 6/17, 6/22, 6/25
6/26, 6/27, 7/1, 7/2, 7/5, 7/6, 7/8, 7/12, 7/17, 7/18
7/21, 7/23, 7/27, 7/31, 8/1, 8/4, 8/5, 8/6, 8/7, 8/9
8/10, 8/11, 8/14, 8/21, 8/26, 8/29, 8/30, 9/3, 9/4, 9/6

Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 4 / 3
Frequent Lightning: 5 (5/20), (6/13), (7/6), (7/21), 8/1, 
Hailstorms: 0
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13), ~55 (7/6)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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  • Longtimer

I just looked at the initial 00z EURO ensemble members and they don't look good as as the majority of them send the midweek system into Northern California. If you live in Medford/Klamath Falls/Roseburg/Eugene/Bend you have better chances to score. Still a long ways out and will hope for the usual northward trend.

 

So you are saying the EURO ensembles are colder than the absolute of the NAM/GFS/GEM

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer

Good news, 06z NAM trending northward and a little stronger with the midweek system than the 00z NAM.

 

Why is that good news?! Just means we warm up sooner. 

  • Like 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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The radar is quickly fizzling out up here. My new years cheer is dying. Who's ready for 2018?

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.24 (2010)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 5.8"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5"

2021-22: 21.75" (12/24: Tr, 12/25: 5", 12/26: 3", 12/27: 1.5", 12/28: Tr, 12/29: 1", 12/30: 3", 1/5: 2.5", 1/6: 1", 2/2: Tr, 2/21: 1.5", 2/22: 0.75", 2/23: 1.5", 2/24: 1")

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  • Longtimer

Looks the same to me.

 

Good. Yev, wants to wish cast a snow storm out of the southern stream going north into Vancouver Island lol. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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So you are saying the EURO ensembles are colder than the absolute s**t of the NAM/GFS/GEM

Why is that good news?! Just means we warm up sooner. 

 

Yes, ensemble average send system into California so we remain colder but drier. 

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/eps/2017010100/072/sfcmslp.conus.png

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/eps/2017010100/072/850t.conus.png

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/eps/2017010100/096/850t.conus.pnghttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/eps/2017010100/120/850t.conus.png

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f3e7e3bf2f29b1e9cdb92d7e39e709f1.jpg

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  • Longtimer

Yes, ensemble average send system into California so we remain colder but drier. 

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/eps/2017010100/072/sfcmslp.conus.png

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/eps/2017010100/072/850t.conus.png

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/eps/2017010100/096/850t.conus.pnghttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/eps/2017010100/120/850t.conus.png

 

I am a cold anomaly freak you know. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Good. Yev, wants to wish cast a snow storm out of the southern stream going north into Vancouver Island lol. 

 

Seriously Andrew, I told you before, I don't post or talk about weather on any other forum. Your obsessed that I'm somebody else. I only talk about weather here. If your basing my post that I'm some guy named Yev on another forum than you're wrong.

f3e7e3bf2f29b1e9cdb92d7e39e709f1.jpg

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  • Longtimer

I'm factoring in what jaya said. The EURO has a chance to warm us up before any precip arrives.

 

I will take my chances with the coolest solution...

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer

Going to predict that tonight will be snowier for the Portland/Vancouver area than anything we will see next week. Actually seems like a fairly easy call right now.

 

Yeah the moisture doesn't loo to end any time soon and the upper levels are going to really start cooling off here in the next 2-3 hours. I think Clark Co. and the East Side will be the biggest winners.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer

We will see what happens. 

 

 

All you can do I guess.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer

It is weird how W. Oregon keeps being so much better than W. WA for snow...Odd times we live in. I feel bad for Jim. His silence leads me to believe he is getting screwed again. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer

When does the 6z GFS start? I'm never usually up this late!

 

1:30am

  • Like 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer

It is weird how W. Oregon keeps being so much better than W. WA for snow...Odd times we live in. I feel bad for Jim. His silence leads me to believe he is getting screwed again.

Perhaps...just perhaps next week us norhenders get a low that comes in right at the mouth of the Columbia....like the good old days leaving Oregon screwed.

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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  • Longtimer

2-3" so far, radar filling in. Scappoose is a mess as well,

Mixed precip by side roads are frozen.

 

That last shower that went through looked really good for you guys! I'm at about 1.5", looks like around 3-4 through about 7-8am will be the focus down here. Performing fairly well so far. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer

Wow some interesting OBS in E. Oregon. Burns sitting at -12 this morning. Pendleton 37 with a 40mph W wind. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer

Haven't seen the latest runs, can we expect any real accumulation?

 

Unlikely anything accumulates beyond a dusting below about 200', but areas above that should mostly see some ground covering at some point. Some folks, especially those further north or near the Cascade foothills, could see up to 3".

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Just added up all my snow events/totals this winter so far.

12-8/12-9: 3"

12-17: 0.25"

12-23: 2.5"

12-31/1-1: 0.75"(Possibly more)

 

I'll gladly take 6.5" even though there could've been more, much better than the last few winters here.

  • Like 1

Lynnwood Snowfall (2021-2022)

12/14/21: Snowflakes in the air for 5 mins

12/26/21: 6"

12/27/21-12/28/21: 2"

12/29-12/30: 3.5”

1/2: 2”

1/5: 0.5”

Total: 14”

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