January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Chewbacca Defense]

Just a dusting here near the Britton Rd fire station. I think Tweed Twenty did a little better. Had to drive through there last night to pick up my son. If I called what I got .5" then they probably got 1.5-2"

 

Amazing what 100-200 feet of elevation will do. Heck the highest point on my street is maybe 40-50 feet higher than my house and I could see a difference (sidewalk completely covered vs being "mostly" covered

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nice! How much?

About 4.5" last time I measured.

[westcoastexpat]

Dew points are dropping fast in the eastern valley as the outflow kicks in. No sign of a temp drop though, and not really any cold air in the canyon at this point.

I wouldn't worry about surface temps. Need the dew points to plummet first. Wind will keep the temperatures up but once they calm down and IF we get some clearing, temps will fall off a cliff.

[TT-SEA]

Its all going to melt though right?

Not here.

[The Swamp]

Should hit 40 today here in the swamp.

 

Once the sun pops out the dusting will be gone and by next weekend it will all just be a memory.

[Heavy Snow]

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/P1_GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/PNM_panel.gif

[WinterWx]

We live in South West Seattle (Arbor Heights) aka the "screw-zone" for snow.  Woke up to a little over 3 inches this morning and plenty enough to take the kids out sledding. Main streets are clear but side roads are snow covered. Great start to the New Year. Hopefully, everyone who didn't get much will get a turn later this week.

[Jbolin]

We live in South West Seattle (Arbor Heights) aka the "screw-zone" for snow.  Woke up to a little over 3 inches this morning and plenty enough to take the kids out sledding. Main streets are clear but side roads are snow covered. Great start to the New Year. Hopefully, everyone who didn't get much will get a turn later this week.

Well hello there no so distant neighbor 

[Dave]

35 degrees with light rain.  I thought I saw a snowflake, but it turned out to be a sad drop falling off a tree branch.

[TT-SEA]

The sun is trying to come out... way too early.   I was hoping for some light snow during the morning waiting for the cold air to arrive.

 

[Deweydog]

The sun is trying to come out... way too early. I was hoping for some light snow during the morning waiting for the cold air to arrive.

 

You're f*ucked.

 

20 15 year olds will be harshly judging your ability to maintain snow cover.

[TT-SEA]

You're f*ucked.

 

20 15 year olds will be harshly judging your ability to maintain snow cover.

 

 

They all left last night... their parents all made it here to get them.    Nobody alters their plans for snow around here.  

[MossMan]

Not a bad winter scene! I have had snow on the ground for I think four weekends in a row...all from separate events.

[Farmboy]

Can someone tell me when the 12z euro starts?

[TT-SEA]

Can someone tell me when the 12z euro starts?

10

[Farmboy]

10

Thankyou

[Kayla]

Continues to just dump snow here with really weak radar returns. Over 6" now.

 

Must be some sort of orographic lift going on right along the west hills currently as the low slides right over me.

[MossMan]

Thick fog and 30 degrees...this snow is not going anywhere I don't think today...everything is quite frozen solid.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

My brother said it is snowing heavily in The Dalles now, wwa just posted there now.

[The Swamp]

Just hit 39 here in the swamp.

[Deweydog]

The Euro doesn't look much warmer through 24 hours!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Now I see why no one mentioned the GFS ensembles...

[ShawniganLake]

Now I see why no one mentioned the GFS ensembles...

Well they aren't really above normal. So we have that going for us.

[Kayla]

The Euro doesn't look much warmer through 24 hours!

 

Euro looks pretty generous for wrap around moisture over the PDX area this afternoon FWIW.

 

Edit - Wow, actually keeps the precip going well into tomorrow now... The plot thickens!

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Euro looks pretty generous for wrap around moisture over the PDX area this afternoon FWIW.

 

Edit - Wow, actually keeps the precip going well into tomorrow now... The plot thickens!

 

Screen Shot 2017-01-01 at 10.03.00 AM.png

 

This would be kind of insane. It shows like 6" more here...lol

[Poulsbo Snowman]

I could hold a beach party outside on my deck right now.

[Deweydog]

Euro looks pretty generous for wrap around moisture over the PDX area this afternoon FWIW.

 

Edit - Wow, actually keeps the precip going well into tomorrow now... The plot thickens!

 

Screen Shot 2017-01-01 at 10.03.00 AM.png

That map depicts QPF beginning at 4am this morning.

 

There should be some light banding later today with the extremely weak deformation as the lee side low slowly develops, but in the valley the effects should be negligible.

[Deweydog]

I could hold a beach party outside on my deck right now.

Your deck is covered with sand?

[Kayla]

This would be kind of insane. It shows like 6" more here...lol

 

Yeah Jesse, BLI and Dewey might be in a great spot as well.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That map depicts QPF beginning at 4am this morning.

 

There should be some light banding later today with the extremely weak deformation as the lee side low slowly develops, but in the valley the effects should be negligible.

 

Okay that makes a little more sense. 

[Perturbed Member]

Looks like I ended up with barely even a dusting thanks to the south wind, destroyer of snow. I was really impressed with how much moisture this event had but it was a bit painful to see nearly all of it go to waste in the lower elevations with the temperatures so close to freezing but just not cold enough due to the low level mixing. I might need a drive through the west hills to get my snow fix. 

[Kayla]

That map depicts QPF beginning at 4am this morning.

 

There should be some light banding later today with the extremely weak deformation as the lee side low slowly develops, but in the valley the effects should be negligible.

 

True but it's still very generous from now into tomorrow for you guys north of the Columbia especially. Moisture just keeps sticking around and is VERY slow to sink south.

 

[FroYoBro]

Loving all of these snow pictures. Looks like a total winter wonderland above 1000 feet down here. Nothing, but some sloppy flakes that mixed in this morning here. I didn't expect anything, so I am fine with it. 

[Kayla]

Okay that makes a little more sense. 

 

Still shows a lot from now through tomorrow for you still as well.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

Your deck is covered with sand?

Just as well be.  Not a flake in sight.

[Deweydog]

Low seems to be right over Kelso. I-5 looks pretty white.

[FroYoBro]

The Euro once again looks much cooler as far as upper levels go on the westside. 

[Dave]

WWA about to be dropped.  Looks like it's all over.  Maybe I can score some flakes next winter.

[Deweydog]

WWA about to be dropped. Looks like it's all over. Maybe I can score some flakes next winter.

Ensembles don't look good for you for next winter either.

[epiceast]

Euro looks pretty generous for wrap around moisture over the PDX area this afternoon FWIW.

 

Edit - Wow, actually keeps the precip going well into tomorrow now... The plot thickens!

 

Screen Shot 2017-01-01 at 10.03.00 AM.png

Missoula NWS thinks that the arctic front is delayed by at least 6 hours. Maybe this comes with the push ahead of the front when it clears all the gunk out and gives it a little lift for some extra showers?