January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[MossMan]

The Euro is far sturdier with the block so it keeps the whole region colder through the end of the week.

 

GEM is somewhat similar but a bit milder overall.

 

Both setup the Puget Sound region for a little overrunning action next weekend, but it would be a quick event.

Thanks! I don't remember a time where I have followed this forum so closely...nearly a month straight of possible (and actual) events...instead of endless ridges over us or split flows week after week!

[Perturbed Member]

Pretty interesting how much snowier it is just west of the metro, even at 200 ft.

 

[Kayla]

Even the GFS shows 1-3" of snow for the Portland region on Wednesday at this point, and looks likely to keep us in a low level cold pattern trough Friday. Could be worse I guess, but it certainly goes haywire with that cutoff low.

 

Yeah. Just amazing that we still have have very little idea what's going to happen beyond Tuesday even after the 12z runs today.

[FroYoBro]

Pretty interesting how much snowier it is just west of the metro, even at 200 ft.

 

 

That is like the snowiest low elevation spot in Oregon. Out near the coast range always does well in these types of setups. 

[Deweydog]

That is like the snowiest low elevation spot in Oregon. Out near the coast range always does well in these types of setups.

Clatskanie is another spot that routinely defies logic during cold advection onshore flow setups. Most of the city is below 100 feet yet they always seem to receive a good dosing.

[Lisa0527]

Does anyone have 12Z Euro snowfall maps for BC/Washington? I need some hope for next weekend.

[TT-SEA]

11 a.m. and lots of blue sky now... but you can tell the dewpoint is dropping.   The air feels drier and colder than it did at dawn.  

 

[Jesse]

Clatskanie is another spot that routinely defies logic during cold advection onshore flow setups. Most of the city is below 100 feet yet they always seem to receive a good dosing.

They are in a great location to orographically enhance NW flow. Also sheltered from south winds.

[Winterdog]

Looks like the northern folks on this forum have thrown in the towel.  Nearly all those posting today are from Seattle southward with most from Oregon.  The past few years our cold intrusions have tended to be backdoor and favoring those living in gorge affected areas.  To quote an oft used phrase..  It is what it is.  Not much to write home about from a northern perspective on the first runs of 2017.  I hope Jim is still with us.  Over and out from Arlington.

[Deweydog]

Kelso to Napavine or so looks like the microscale winners today. That stuff is just rotating their nicely.

[Perturbed Member]

That is like the snowiest low elevation spot in Oregon. Out near the coast range always does well in these types of setups. 

 

Yeah I guess its the forest grove effect. Isolated, cold air daming against the coast range and relatively more protected from south wind there. 

[Perturbed Member]

Does anyone have 12Z Euro snowfall maps for BC/Washington? I need some hope for next weekend.

 

How did you do with this event? I thought Vancouver did pretty well?

[BLI snowman]

Yeah. Just amazing that we still have have very little idea what's going to happen beyond Tuesday even after the 12z runs today.

 

That cut-off bugger is a real wild card, Friday is five days out and could realistically still be 48 with pouring rain or 28 with winter wonderland awesomeness. 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Accumulating snow level was about 1000' coming down into town this morning.

[luminen]

24F dew point now

[BLI snowman]

Kelso to Napavine or so looks like the microscale winners today. That stuff is just rotating their nicely.

 

Road trip to Silver Lake!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Had 5.5" and was still snowing when I left the house. In Woodburn right now, a few sun breaks.

[Lisa0527]

How did you do with this event? I thought Vancouver did pretty well?

Possibly...but I'm at Mount Washington on Vancouver Island right now and missed it. About 6 cm here. I think about that back in Vancouver, but nowhere near as much as further up the Fraser Valley where they got slammed. Friends are saying 20 cm in Surrey, BC.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

PDX with a shot at 40 today

[Deweydog]

PDX with a shot at 40 today

They always did.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

31 with heavy snow at Medford

[SilverFallsAndrew]

33 at sea tac...they may not hit 38!

[Perturbed Member]

Possibly...but I'm at Mount Washington on Vancouver Island right now and missed it. About 6 cm here. I think about that back in Vancouver, but nowhere near as much as further up the Fraser Valley where they got slammed. Friends are saying 20 cm in Surrey, BC.

 

Not too bad, 6 cm is better than most here. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

I am expecting 37 to 38 here today. 

[ShawniganLake]

Possibly...but I'm at Mount Washington on Vancouver Island right now and missed it. About 6 cm here. I think about that back in Vancouver, but nowhere near as much as further up the Fraser Valley where they got slammed. Friends are saying 20 cm in Surrey, BC.

Highest total I heard was 10" to the north of there. Coquitlam I believe. It's been an incredibly snowy month in those areas of Vancouver.

[dairyd]

3" on the ground, All on the ground in about 2 hours. Maybe some more in spots.  It would have been 6" but it didn't start accumulating until 10pm as it was snowing since 4pm.   NE breeze is starting to pick up a bit now.  Gradient is up to 14.

[TT-SEA]

24F dew point now

 

 

Yeah... dewpoint down into the 20s here as well.    Nothing is melting at all... and there are some clouds and possibly some light snow rotating in the from the SE here.

[BLI snowman]

Low is pretty much right over my head.

 

HRRR looks increasingly interesting for this evening.

[GHweatherChris]

Low is pretty much right over my head.

 

HRRR looks increasingly interesting for this evening.

Can you post it for Ore/Wash?

[Kayla]

Low is pretty much right over my head.

 

HRRR looks increasingly interesting for this evening.

 

Yeah that stuff up around Kelso looks like it is slowly edging it's way back south as the low begins it's trek south and west it would appear. Will be a lot of pleasantly surprised people and some blown forecasts if the trend continues!

[liquidsnow]

So we have no idea what will happen 5 days out?

[Deweydog]

Yeah that stuff up around Kelso looks like it is slowly edging it's way back south as the low begins it's trek south and west it would appear. Will be a lot of pleasantly surprised people and some blown forecasts if the trend continues!

The low should track a little east and fill, then reemerge to our south.

[TT-SEA]

33 at sea tac...they may not hit 38!

 

 

They have fog.   That helps.  

 

Its 36 in Seattle with lots of sun breaks.  

[BLI snowman]

Can you post it for Ore/Wash?

 

You can view it on here

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrr&region=nwus&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2017010118&fh=1

 

It's gradually trending juicier for a little deformation around the Portland area this evening, which makes sense with the low tracking so close.

[FroYoBro]

31 with heavy snow at Medford

 

My old college SOU should be getting some nice snow!

[Timmy Supercell]

Light snow since about 9am here. Not much accumulated so far and not many echoes on the KMAX radar. I assume tonight gets heavier.

[Bryant]

Good luck to those down south, seems like you have potential to do well

[The Swamp]

I am expecting 37 to 38 here today. 

 

I'm sitting at 40.8 right now.

 

Not surprising as the cold air is bottled up north of the border until this low shifts south and east of the area.

 

Will it?  Or will it just fizzle out?

[luvssnow_spokane]

Looks like a little wrap around treat rolling in from the east off the cascades showing up on radar. It does show bands of moisture over me but nothing falling. So maybe just a tease.

[FroYoBro]

Man, that area near I-5 at the Oregon/Washington border is seriously having a snowstorm this morning.