January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Kayla]

The low should track a little east and fill, then reemerge to our south.

 

Yeah. Isn't there a secondary low that is forming right now and tracks WSW which seems to enhance the wrap around moisture over PDX later this afternoon/evening? Or at least that's what the euro might be picking up on?

[ShawniganLake]

They have fog. That helps.

 

Its 36 in Seattle with lots of sun breaks.

36 with a north wind here as well.

 

Could be worse. It's 41 in Victoria with 30mph northeast wind and no snow on the ground.

[Deweydog]

Man, that area near I-5 is seriously having a snowstorm this morning.

Reminds me of February 2011. Kelso picked up about six inches with a sustained and well-placed quasi convergence zone.

[The Swamp]

Looks like a little wrap around treat rolling in from the east off the cascades showing up on radar. It does show bands of moisture over me but nothing falling. So maybe just a tease.

 

Sadly I think that is just a tease.

[FroYoBro]

Some sun breaks here and it is up to 38. Maybe we can get to 50 to get some incredible instability and thundersnow later today. 

[Deweydog]

Yeah. Isn't there a secondary low that is forming right now and tracks WSW which seems to enhance the wrap around moisture over PDX later this afternoon/evening? Or at least that's what the euro might be picking up on?

All the models have hinted at a little deformation scud this afternoon and into tonight as the persistent lee side low helps the atmosphere squeeze out the last of its moisture. I suppose it's possible that process may be a little more prolonged with the overall slower cool down.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Sadly I think that is just a tease.

Maybe but worth watching. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Driving though wilsonville car thermometer says 40, if they'd gotten any snow it would have melted by now.

[Deweydog]

Driving though wilsonville car thermometer says 40, if they'd gotten any snow it would have melted by now.

You're learning well, grasshopper!

[FroYoBro]

Saw on facebook that someone living at 1k feet in Columbia Heights (north of Longview) is up to 8 inches and it is still snowing hard. 

[Deweydog]

18z NAM is noticeably wetter...

[Kayla]

All the models have hinted at a little deformation scud this afternoon and into tonight as the persistent lee side low helps the atmosphere squeeze out the last of its moisture. I suppose it's possible that process may be a little more prolonged with the overall slower cool down.

 

That moisture up there is definitely treking south now and cloud tops are continuing to enhance. Looks like your area especially could get in on some Kelso/Longview fun and possibly north PDX a little later.

[Timmy Supercell]

Driving though wilsonville car thermometer says 40, if they'd gotten any snow it would have melted by now.

 

Say hi to my brother Andrew on the way through!

[snow drift]

Absolutely dumping snow here. The wind is starting to pick up from the north too.

[TT-SEA]

Say hi to my brother Andrew on the way through!

 

 

That would be seriously inconvenient for him to get off the freeway and find your brother's place of residence and then find him just to say 'hi'.   

[FroYoBro]

Absolutely dumping snow here. The wind is starting to pick up from the north too.

Where at?

[TT-SEA]

Absolutely dumping snow here. The wind is starting to pick up from the north too.

 

 

Where?

[Jesse]

That would be seriously inconvenient for him to get off the freeway and find your brother's place of residence and then find him just to say 'hi'.

Andrew would do it. Those Andrews gotta stick together.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That would be seriously inconvenient for him to get off the freeway and find your brother's place of residence and then find him just to say 'hi'.

My brother actually went to say hi to Timmy when he lived in Klamath, but he wasn't home. Lol

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Andrew would do it. Those Andrews gotta stick together.

We do

[BLI snowman]

18z NAM is noticeably wetter...

 

Also looks great for Cowlitz County into this evening. Unfortunately there's a snow shadow effect for Portland/Vancouver with low topped precip in those setups, those ridges block a lot that spins in from that direction.

[Deweydog]

Also looks great for Cowlitz County into this evening. Unfortunately there's a snow shadow effect for Portland/Vancouver with low topped precip in those setups, those ridges block a lot that spins in from that direction.

Yeah, I've seen this episode before.

[FroYoBro]

Nam shows a pretty strong band moving through Washington County later. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

Wrap around moisture is coming off the cascades and causing it to snow here again. I do not expect any accumulation but nice to see snow fall during daylight hours. I have not seen that since 2012. Since then it has always snowed at night.

[Perturbed Member]

Man, that area near I-5 at the Oregon/Washington border is seriously having a snowstorm this morning. 

 

http://images.wsdot.wa.gov/vancouver/005vc03696.jpg

 

Beautiful there.

[Jesse]

Nam shows a pretty strong band moving through Washington County later.

We'll be down in that area later today for New Years dinner. So I wouldn't expect much.

[Heavy Snow]

Nothing so far here in Gresham at 500 feet. Had some snow showers but nothing sticking.

[Jesse]

Also looks great for Cowlitz County into this evening. Unfortunately there's a snow shadow effect for Portland/Vancouver with low topped precip in those setups, those ridges block a lot that spins in from that direction.

 

Are you talking about the hills that start along I-5 basically north of La Center?

[overcast]

The variability of our weather in the Puget Sound lowlands amazes me. I just took the light rail back from downtown to Tukwila. No snow downtown, trace-inch throughout rainier valley, and over 3 inches at the light rail station in Tukwila, yet no accumulation a half mile down the hill in the valley, and just a trace here on the hill in Renton. Amazingly hit or miss with this first round.

[Perturbed Member]

3PM This is it...I've waited years for this. 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2017010118/namconus_ref_frzn_nwus_5.png

[FroYoBro]

3PM This is it...I've waited years for this. 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2017010118/namconus_ref_frzn_nwus_5.png

 

A rain/snow mixed shower turning into an all wet snow shower? 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3PM This is it...I've waited years for this.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2017010118/namconus_ref_frzn_nwus_5.png

Looks like rain

[VancouverIslandSouth]

36 with a north wind here as well.

 

Could be worse. It's 41 in Victoria with 30mph northeast wind and no snow on the ground.

 

About 1/2" of slowly melting snow in this part of Victoria. Everything was covered when I woke up but it's since melted off the roads. Sitting at 39F here with a 23F dewpoint. Looking south in that picture you can see the north side of the Olympics are getting absolutely dumped on right now. I'm still hopefully we'll pick up some strait-effect stuff when the real Arctic air starts funneling in and damming up against the Vancouver Island/Olympic mountains.

 

http://i131.photobucket.com/albums/p286/jemeric/IMG_3783_zps8q4hsdx9.jpg

[dairyd]

I'm sitting at 40.8 right now.

 

Not surprising as the cold air is bottled up north of the border until this low shifts south and east of the area.

 

Will it?  Or will it just fizzle out?

 

NE wind just arrived.  Snow is moving around.  It's going to be drifts up the *** if this spools up 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Today reminds me of 1/15/2012

[The Swamp]

IF we want the truly cold stuff to arrive that "L" is going to need to sink further south.

 

It spinning around and meandering will prevent the arctic are from charging down the sound.

[BLI snowman]

Are you talking about the hills that start along I-5 basically north of La Center?

 

There are quite a few high ridges/peaks surrounding the Lewis River and Kalama River basins. Some over 2000', which generally blocks a lot of this lower level stuff that comes in from the NNW. 

[BLI snowman]

Graupel!

[Perturbed Member]

A rain/snow mixed shower turning into an all wet snow shower? 

 

Looks like rain

 

I forgot the sarcasm tag.

[FroYoBro]

Graupel!

I could definitely go for an afternoon graupel storm.