Tom Posted January 26, 2017 Report Share Posted January 26, 2017 A Clipper is forecast to originate out of the Yukon Territories of far NW Canada and dive south through Manitoba, CA to close out the month of January. Models are varying on the strength/track of this system. Let's discuss the potential to add on more snow to this paltry month in the snow dept. Here was the 06z GFS... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 26, 2017 Report Share Posted January 26, 2017 Since it's a clipper I would be watching the trends of the Canadian as it should have a better feel for these type of systems. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 26, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 26, 2017 Since it's a clipper I would be watching the trends of the Canadian as it should have a better feel for these type of systems.I remember using the Canadian during our epic '13/'14 season and it did very well along with the NAM. Something to consider. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 26, 2017 Report Share Posted January 26, 2017 I remember using the Canadian during our epic '13/'14 season and it did very well along with the NAM. Something to consider.If we could get a couple weeks like that year for February and then throw in a Blizzard then I would consider this a win for this winter. We would quickly forget how terrible January was. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 26, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 26, 2017 If we could get a couple weeks like that year for February and then throw in a Blizzard then I would consider this a win for this winter. We would quickly forget how terrible January was. If that would happen, we would quickly forget about January! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 26, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 26, 2017 12z GFS a bit north this run... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 26, 2017 Report Share Posted January 26, 2017 Lets see how this clipper reacts to SMI. Time ta give. January was a complete waste. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 26, 2017 Report Share Posted January 26, 2017 Probably want this clipper south if those in the lakes want the superbowl storm to deliver Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 26, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 26, 2017 12z GGEM... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2017012612/gem_asnow_ncus_23.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 26, 2017 Report Share Posted January 26, 2017 North trend. Got a long way to go to get me in it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 26, 2017 Report Share Posted January 26, 2017 North trend. Got a long way to go to get me in it.North is fine gives us a better shot at the second storm if it come to fruition Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 26, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 26, 2017 12z Euro came south and very similar to the Canadian... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017012612/ecmwf_mslpaNorm_us_6.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 26, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 26, 2017 Here are the 850's.... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017012612/ecmwf_T850_us_6.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 26, 2017 Report Share Posted January 26, 2017 I am hoping I can maybe squeeze out an inch or so from this clipper. Haven't used my snowblower in awhile. Well, I will probably use a broom to clean off the inch or so . 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 26, 2017 Report Share Posted January 26, 2017 Probably want this clipper south if those in the lakes want the superbowl storm to deliver For sure. Hate having to rely on the EC and GEM to bring a clipper south like they're trending today, but since we haven't had any clipper pattern this season, we don't even have anything to base an assumption on. Gonna have to ride it out and hope for the best over here in synoptic dead-zone Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 27, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 27, 2017 00z GFS...insisting north camp.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 27, 2017 Report Share Posted January 27, 2017 00z GFS...insisting north camp.... GFS's MO it seems. With this last storm in the plains, how far out when it finally came a bit south more aligned with other models? Like only a day or 2 iirc? When it comes to clippers though, staying north is more the norm tbh. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 27, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 27, 2017 GFS's MO it seems. With this last storm in the plains, how far out when it finally came a bit south more aligned with other models? Like only a day or 2 iirc? When it comes to clippers though, staying north is more the norm tbh.I believe the GFS came around 2-3 days out. So far, it does look like a track through N WI/N MI is the way to go. You will prob see some lake enhancement out of this and have a "white" ground for sure. On the other hand, this side of LM will continue to stare at bare ground! Hope somehow this can benefit the both of us. At least the cold from recent days has re-frozen the warm ground so when the snow comes you won't see much melt. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 27, 2017 Report Share Posted January 27, 2017 I believe the GFS came around 2-3 days out. So far, it does look like a track through N WI/N MI is the way to go. You will prob see some lake enhancement out of this and have a "white" ground for sure. On the other hand, this side of LM will continue to stare at bare ground! Hope somehow this can benefit the both of us. At least the cold from recent days has re-frozen the warm ground so when the snow comes you won't see much melt.Exactly. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 27, 2017 Report Share Posted January 27, 2017 I believe the GFS came around 2-3 days out. So far, it does look like a track through N WI/N MI is the way to go. You will prob see some lake enhancement out of this and have a "white" ground for sure. On the other hand, this side of LM will continue to stare at bare ground! Hope somehow this can benefit the both of us. At least the cold from recent days has re-frozen the warm ground so when the snow comes you won't see much melt. It finally hit freezing in Marshall yesterday evening but hardly a hard plummet scenario, lol. We've got our work cut out to get soil back to frozen solidly to any meaningful depth. My ground was actually white (grass only attm) since the squalls that started about 4:30 yesterday. Again, the real stuff (2-3") hit the 2 counties between work and home where the ground is nicely white, though plows weren't needed or used on the freeways (chemical plow as they say worked fine with the temps). Lakeshore had flakes flying all day, but nothing stuck til you got inland a few miles. About 10 miles inland was like you drove through an invisible curtain into winter! Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 27, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 27, 2017 It finally hit freezing in Marshall yesterday evening but hardly a hard plummet scenario, lol. We've got our work cut out to get soil back to frozen solidly to any meaningful depth. My ground was actually white (grass only attm) since the squalls that started about 4:30 yesterday. Again, the real stuff (2-3") hit the 2 counties between work and home where the ground is nicely white, though plows weren't needed or used on the freeways (chemical plow as they say worked fine with the temps). Lakeshore had flakes flying all day, but nothing stuck til you got inland a few miles. About 10 miles inland was like you drove through an invisible curtain into winter!I find it interesting how warm it is for adjacent lakeside counties in the dead of winter from the above normal and ice free waters of LM. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 27, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 27, 2017 12z GFS looking better for N WI/MI posters...strong 990mb clipper swings through... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 27, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 27, 2017 12z GGEM...still not backing down on the snowy idea... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2017012712/gem_asnow_ncus_19.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 27, 2017 Report Share Posted January 27, 2017 Not saying it's going to be right but I believe the Canadian is the model to watch for these type of systems. We will find out next week if this is true. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 27, 2017 Report Share Posted January 27, 2017 12z GGEM...still not backing down on the snowy idea... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2017012712/gem_asnow_ncus_19.png Today's suite trends are our friends across SWMI..that'd be a sweet hit right there on the GEM...Navgem likes us as well: Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 27, 2017 Report Share Posted January 27, 2017 Today's suite trends are our friends across SWMI..that'd be a sweet hit right there on the GEM...Navgem likes us as well: 20170127 NAVGEM 6z 96-102hr Surf.PNG 6+" for you. Sweet. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 27, 2017 Report Share Posted January 27, 2017 6+" for you. Sweet. yeah, lovin it, but tbh I think that's all the little clippers together across SWMI since the map doesn't say "48hr snowfall", etc.. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 27, 2017 Report Share Posted January 27, 2017 Not saying it's going to be right but I believe the Canadian is the model to watch for these type of systems. We will find out next week if this is true.Its the only type of system to model ever scores a coup in. still few and far between Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 27, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 27, 2017 12z Euro similar to the Canadian with track... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017012712/ecmwf_T850_ncus_5.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 27, 2017 Report Share Posted January 27, 2017 For a 96 hour prog all 3 models are pretty locked in Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 27, 2017 Report Share Posted January 27, 2017 12z Euro similar to the Canadian with track... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017012712/ecmwf_T850_ncus_5.png Have any 2M wind maps by any chance? And/or the GEFS at this range to go with the post below from gosaints? For a 96 hour prog all 3 models are pretty locked in Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 27, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 27, 2017 18z GFS... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 27, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 27, 2017 @ Jaster, here were the 18z GEFS precip maps.... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017012718/gfs-ens_apcpn_us_20.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 28, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 28, 2017 00z GFS came in a touch south and looks like Snowshoe/Money and north side of DTX get hit... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 28, 2017 Report Share Posted January 28, 2017 @ Jaster, here were the 18z GEFS precip maps.... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017012718/gfs-ens_apcpn_us_20.pngThx but meant SLP clustering map tbh Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 28, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 28, 2017 Thx but meant SLP clustering map tbhWhoops! I'll post tonights 00z run... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 28, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 28, 2017 06z GFS....looking better for MI posters...even WI 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 28, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 28, 2017 06z GEFS... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017012806/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_12.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017012806/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_14.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017012806/gfs-ens_apcpn_us_19.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 28, 2017 Report Share Posted January 28, 2017 Build that snow pack up north snowmobile trip coming up! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 28, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 28, 2017 A little more juice on the 12z GFS run...might even be some warning snows up near GRB/DTX... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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