March 2014 Observations and Discussions

[Tom]

Who knows this far out IowaWx...anything can happen.  I think all of us in this region are in the game.  This pattern is ripe for a couple big storms this month.

[East Dubzz]

And the temp has dropped into negative territory..

[tim the weatherman]

i was looking at the anomailes at noaa and we have a positve pdo and pna over the north pacific and an ao is going to be positive at mid month and the nao is positive right now and i am thinking that these will remain this way for this coming spring 2014

[Geos]

I wouldn't even look at anything close to 360 hours yet. 

 

+AO and +NAO might have something to say in the matter as we close out the week.

 

Already +3° here. 

 

Christmas lights... I got 90% of them down during the brief thaw in January and then a grabbed the last two lines that were hardest to reach during that mild spell a couple weeks ago. Some people have them up, but most are actually put away now. A lot of them were up until that thaw two weeks ago.

[Tom]

I believe there is a correction that will be taking place in the AO forecast.  Find it hard to believe that it will be as high as the Euro is showing.  Ridging developing over Alaska will show that correction.

[james1976]

18-24" of snow too?

nahh....just talked about temps being much colder than normal.....which i think will prolly come to fruition.

[Geos]

I was looking at the EURO control run and except for the near term, I don't see any organized ridging in Alaska.

Reading Anchorage's AFD it sounds like stormy and seasonable weather for the duration of the next week.

 

Still a breeze out there. Still at 3°.

[tim the weatherman]

I was looking at the EURO control run and except for the near term, I don't see any organized ridging in Alaska.

Reading Anchorage's AFD is sounds like stormy and seasonable weather for the duration of the next week.

 

Still a breeze out there. Still at 3°.

that is good news geos that we will end winter within the next week or week after btw i looking at the atomspheric blocking over alaska and toward the 16th of this month that the ridging is completely gone

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Who was the DVN met who predicted a major pattern change about 3 weeks ago. It's Mets like those we have to watch out for. He's putting his own ego before trying to accurately predict the weather, got too specific on a long range call just for the sake of making a bold calk.

[Tom]

Geo's, I was talking about ridging developing around March 12th period and beyond.  It's clearly evident on the 12z Euro Control run that ridging establishes itself in about 10 days and beyond that time.  LRC pattern repeating itself once again.

 

[Geos]

Who was the DVN met who predicted a major pattern change about 3 weeks ago. It's Mets like those we have to watch out for. He's putting his own ego before trying to accurately predict the weather, got too specific on a long range call just for the sake of making a bold calk.

 

I posted the name, you'll have to do some digging in the February thread.

[Money]

No offense to Geos, but he has been calling for a warm period for the last one to two months and each time it's failed to happen.

 

Obviously, it's going to turn warm sooner than later, but I think he's letting what he wants to happen getting the way of facts/trends this winter.

[Geos]

Geo's, I was talking about ridging developing around March 12th period and beyond.  It's clearly evident on the 12z Euro Control run that ridging establishes itself in about 10 days and beyond that time.  LRC pattern repeating itself once again.

 

The LRC runs out this month sometime though, right?

 

Of course things can change between now and then too. 

 

Down to +1° here now.

[Geos]

No offense to Geos, but he has been calling for a warm period for the last one to two months and each time it's failed to happen.

 

Obviously, it's going to turn warm sooner than later, but I think he's letting what he wants to happen getting the way of facts/trends this winter.

 

Well we've had two warm periods/thaws, but they were short though. 

[Tom]

Geo's, the LRC cycles through the entire year thru end of September when you start seeing a transition in the wx pattern sometime around October 1st.  If your asking about how long the cycle can last providing wintry weather, it could last until April the way things are shaping up but by then warm ups will come with increasing intensities.  IMO, March will be the last month where true winter conditions take up residence for extended periods of time.  Sooner or later the back to winter will be broken but I don't see it happening any time soon.  Maybe the last week of March when the LRC pattern enters a SW Flow pattern and systems ride farther NW and we get into the warm sector.  I could see that happening.

[East Dubzz]

Was -3 here when I left home an hour ago. Won't be able to update you, but tomorrow I can tell you what we got down to. My guess is -12 or around there..

[Tom]

Down to 3F here in Des Plaines, I'd say -5F is attainable given how fast temps are dropping.  Grid forecast is for -2F.  I think temps will bust to high for overnight lows.

[Jaycee]

I just want this cold to be over. This marks the worst winter weather season ive ever experienced by a long shot.

[tim the weatherman]

but tom skilling said not too long ago that march is the fastest warming month that by mid month that we will getting in a warmer and beyond.

[Geos]

but tom skilling said not too long ago that march is the fastest warming month that by mid month that we will getting in a warmer and beyond.

 

Yeah the sun angle will eventually win out. Once the snow melts the departures should start relaxing. ...particularly the old snow.

 

+1° here now.

 

Thanks for the clarification Tom.

[Money]

but tom skilling said not too long ago that march is the fastest warming month that by mid month that we will getting in a warmer and beyond.

 

So no 18-24 inch snows for Chicago?

[6789]

It is brutally cold out there irregardless, for some reason tonight I felt it more than I have in a while, maybe because it hasn't been this cold in a while. I love winter but this cold is down right ugly and may I say un welcomed this time of year?

[tim the weatherman]

also i have been looking at the blocking forecast by noaa that by next sunday that the blocking over alaska and the warm aloft over the artic is no longer there so that means that the ao is going positive by next week.

[tim the weatherman]

i agree geos that the sun by the 20th of this month will be over the equator that the sun has been getting stronger by ever since december of last year.

[Geos]

also i have been looking at the blocking forecast by noaa that by next sunday that the blocking over alaska and the warm aloft over the artic is no longer there so that means that the ao is going positive by next week.

 

5-9 day outlooks show the blocking migrating to Europe and Asia. Nothing over Greenland or Alaska.

 

 Current >>> 

 

10-14 day

 

[Iowawx]

Should be about another 3-4 weeks of winter conditions. After that, spring should slowly arrive. NAM showing 2-4 with clipper system Wed-Thur.

[tim the weatherman]

5-9 day outlooks show the blocking migrating to Europe and Asia. Nothing over Greenland or Alaska.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/blocking/real_time_nh/forecast_2_nh.gif Current >>> http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/blocking/real_time_nh/500gz_anomalies_nh.gif

 

10-14 day

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/blocking/real_time_nh/forecast_3_nh.gif

if you see that the ridge over the siberian sea and alaska start to collapse by day 7 and that is good news for all of us espically spring lovers.

[tim the weatherman]

was looking at the great lakes that they are not terrbly froze over like they said so that means that the'll melt when warmer temps comes in.

[Money]

GFS has about 5 IN of new snow for ORD in the next 3 days. NAM has pretty much nothing.

[tim the weatherman]

they said that lake superioris the one lake that is giving us a cool spring.

[midwest buildit]

lakes look fairly frozen to me..

 

http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/glcfs/lice-00.gif

[Geos]

lakes look fairly frozen to me..

 

 

Lake Michigan isn't that frozen. The wind has been shifting it around. I see it everyday almost in Racine and there was a lot of open water to be seen on Friday. In fact I'll try to get a picture tomorrow.

 

Check this source out. http://coastwatch.glerl.noaa.gov/webdata/cwops/html/modis/modis.php?region=m&page=1

 

0z GFS

 

[tim the weatherman]

just looked a current pic of lake superior that it isn't ice over in spots.

[Geos]

just looked a current pic of lake superior that it isn't ice over in spots.

 

Those maps are generated by satellite. I'm thinking the resolution isn't the best. It might be measuring lake temperature and interpreting all 32° readings as ice. 

 

---

 

GFS would introduce some mixed precip on Friday in the area.

[tim the weatherman]

Lake Michigan isn't that frozen. The wind has been shifting it around. I see it everyday almost in Racine and there was a lot of open water to be seen on Friday. In fact I'll try to get a picture tomorrow.

 

Check this source out. http://coastwatch.glerl.noaa.gov/webdata/cwops/html/modis/modis.php?region=m&page=1

 

0z GFS

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_03_2014/post-7389-0-30106400-1393819240.png

lake superior is not all that frozen over

[midwest buildit]

this ice chart looks more accurate to me. but a pain to read so just check it out at there site..

 

http://iceweb1.cis.ec.gc.ca/Prod20/page3.xhtml

[Geos]

I see it's mostly cloudy at ORD and somewhat overcast here.

 

Clouds from the south look to stick around a little longer at least. Nice storm representation on this false color image.

 

[Iowawx]

Down to -10 here in Cedar Rapids, Iowa. Wind chill is -24.

[Money]

GGEM still showing that cutter type storm.

[Money]

Looks like .65-.7 QPF or so for N. IL/IA and S. WI on the GGEM for this weekend. 

 

Tom can deny or confirm. Temps look cold enough as well.