March 2014 Observations and Discussions

[Tom]

00z GGEM...confirmed...surprised how consistent it's been showing this system.  Let's see if 00z Euro trends even better from it's 12z run today.

 

 

[Money]

00z GGEM...confirmed...surprised how consistent it's been showing this system.  Let's see if 00z Euro trends even better from it's 12z run today.

 

Nice. EURO looks very similar as the GGEM through HR 96.

[Tom]

00z Euro showing nothing special...hits N IN/N OH...not as developed as the GGEM.

[Geos]

-4° here over an hour ago. Now approaching 0° with LE clouds streaming in. ORD hit -1°.

[abhidupage]

Nam 12z brings in accumulating snow of 2" in most places north of i80 early tomorrow morning around rush hour 3" in some. Going to be interesting to see if other models pick up on it.

[abhidupage]

Nam 12z now shows what gfs was showing has 4-6" with the 2 clippers combined.

[Geos]

Hearing that downtown Chicago is getting SN currently.

[abhidupage]

Hearing that downtown Chicago is getting SN currently.

interesting was LES in the forecast for them in this morning or was it a surprise snow?

[Geos]

interesting was LES in the forecast for them in this morning or was it a surprise snow?

 

Yeah it is. Even up in Racine there is --SN.

[Tony]

Hearing close to an inch around downtown.

[Money]

6z GFS ensembles trended big time towards the GGEM in regards to the system for this weekend. probably half or more look nice. 4 of them have .75 or more QPF for N. IL

[Money]

3z/9z SREF Plumes

 

ORD: 

 

3z: 1.55

9z: 2.88

 

MKE:

 

3z: 2.20

9z: 4.14

 

OSH:

 

3z: 2.84

9z: 3.44

 

DBQ:

 

3z: 1.64

9z: 2.55

[Tony]

3z/9z SREF Plumes

 

ORD: 

 

3z: 1.55

9z: 2.88

 

MKE:

 

3z: 2.20

9z: 4.14

 

OSH:

 

3z: 2.84

9z: 3.44

 

DBQ:

 

3z: 1.64

9z: 2.55

Money.....are these numbers for the clipper tomorrow night/Wednesday? Maybe should start a clipper thread for this week.

[Money]

Money.....are these numbers for the clipper tomorrow night/Wednesday? Maybe should start a clipper thread for this week.

 

That's through the end of it's run (87 hours) but it looks like majority falls tomorrow night/wed.  Maybe .5 of that is from tonight/tomorrow morning.

[Money]

And just looking at the op 6z GFS, it shows 6-8+ band from N of STL to C IN and N. Ohio. 

 

Much different from 12z. GGEM has been consistent for the last 3-4 days so maybe the GFS is catching on.

[Geos]

GFS not impressive with end of the week snow.

 

[Tom]

12z NAM from clippers....nice hit N IL...

 

[East Dubzz]

NAM would be nice... Huge differences between the models again it sounds like? Haven't been looking lately, but I'm sure they don't agree like usual..

[Geos]

ORD sounding for the middle of the Wednesday event. DGZ worse then Saturday...

 

[midwest buildit]

snowing here.. woke up and was confused. lol

 

I would up load pics but the smallest my phone will take is still a 1000 times to big to upload?

[midwest buildit]

And drop box pics dont show up when I use insert image?

 

And imagur won't work in drop box.

[East Dubzz]

Just got home.. got down to -14.6 here last night..

[Geos]

And drop box pics dont show up when I use insert image?

 

And imagur won't work in drop box.

 

Admin needs to up the space limit, similar to the old site. imo...

 

Could be some software issues today.

 

---

 

Sun breaking out as the LE clouds book it to the north. 16°.

 

12z GFS, one of the milder runs I've seen for the lower Lakes and further south and west.

[midwest buildit]

My limit is 799 bytes. A 640x480 on low quality is 53,000 bytes. So I need to reduce it to what. A 10x5 pixel. Lol

[Geos]

My limit is 799 bytes. A 640x480 on low quality is 53,000 bytes. So I need to reduce it to what. A 10x5 pixel. Lol

 

Wow, it should be 500 kb. I'll send a note to Dominic.

[Tom]

Check this out for eye candy.  I posted a map last night of a lower lakes cutter next Tue/Wed on the ensemble run and 12z Euro OP still on board and would fit with the pattern.  From this storm alone, if the snowfall amounts transpire the way its being advertised now, all time snow records for the season would be shattered in IL/IN/MI.

 

 

[East Dubzz]

Interesting to see, Tom. Still a while out so who knows what happens and I'm sure the Euro may even lose it for a little bit, but I could see this storm happening..

[Tom]

12z Euro Precip...I'd pray to the Snow God's if this transpired.  It would be another LSD shutdown.  Nearly 2.0" of qpf in N IL/SE WI and temps in the mid 20's!  That would be well over 2 Feet of Snow.  To bad its 10 days away....

[gabel23]

12z Euro Precip...I'd pray to the Snow God's if this transpired.  It would be another LSD shutdown.  Nearly 2.0" of qpf in N IL/SE WI and temps in the mid 20's!  That would be well over 2 Feet of Snow.  To bad its 10 days away....

And another lovely donut hole over Nebraska. Just can't catch a break; I'm throwing in the white towel.  

[Tom]

It just hasn't been your winter in the Plains this season.  The pattern has been relentless around the lakes/Midwest and you guys can't buy a decent snow storm this year.  As the seasonal jet stream shifts farther north maybe you guys can cash in on a big Spring time snow storm before winter is over.

[Tony]

12z Euro Precip...I'd pray to the Snow God's if this transpired.  It would be another LSD shutdown.  Nearly 2.0" of qpf in N IL/SE WI and temps in the mid 20's!  That would be well over 2 Feet of Snow.  To bad its 10 days away....

Like you said Tom 10 days away so let the model mayhem that we have experienced this winter continue!!

[tim the weatherman]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

noaa is forecast that the ao is going to positive by the 16th of this month so that means that the ao is going to strengthend by the 16th of this month.http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.mrf.gif

[tim the weatherman]

also looking at the nao forecast that we are looking at positive through the 16 of this month.

[Iowawx]

Anything on the GGEM regarding a weekend storm??

[tim the weatherman]

according to tom skilling thatwe will stay cold for the rest of the month.

[Geos]

With a +AO and a +NAO that storm on the EURO could cut far NW or ... maybe disappear. The EURO has not been doing so hot this year. A lot of mets and models siding with mild next week (average or just slightly below average).

 

---

 

NAM showing south trending system for Wednesday.

[tim the weatherman]

sometimes you get models that are right and sometimes they are always wrong that the storm on the euro can cut far nw or not seeing it at all in this case that the euro could be wrong on this one like you said geos about the +ao and +nao all depends the postition of the polar vortex.

[Tom]

Come on The24weatherman, this is your Footer to 2 Footer storm you've been asking for all season long!  Haha, j/k...we'll see how this plays out but it certainly would put an exclamation point to our season over here.

[Geos]

sometimes you get models that are right and sometimes they are always wrong that the storm on the euro can cut far nw or not seeing it at all in this case that the euro could be wrong on this one like you said geos about the +ao and +nao all depends the postition of the polar vortex.

 

More or less the EURO shows the PV hanging around Baffin Island and far northern Quebec for the extended after Thursday.

[tim the weatherman]

More or less the EURO shows the PV hanging around Baffin Island and far northern Quebec for the extended after Thursday.

good point geos that i think that the euro has not the king this winter that i think that a week or so we will be going through a warm period.to thaw and melt our snowpack that we have.