May 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

We've also had many sunny and warm days.

 

It will be 4 days above 70 here out of the first 18 days of May.  

 

I don't call that "many".    A few... but not many.    

[Jesse]

It will be 4 days above 70 here out of the first 18 days of May.

 

I don't call that "many". A few... but not many.

I don't know. It's felt like a pretty normal May to me so far. You are just being a baby like usual.

[TT-SEA]

I don't know. It's felt like a pretty normal May to me so far. You are just being a baby like usual.

A very normal May. Not rewarding the winter and spring we have been through. Not yet anyways.

[Jesse]

A very normal May. Not rewarding the winter and spring we have been through. Not yet anyways.

Where's my reward!?! I want my reward!!

 

Things don't work that way. We will NEVER "make up" for the endless torching of 2014-16, for instance. Thinking of things in those terms just leads to disappointment. Take it as it comes.

[TT-SEA]

Where's my reward!?! I want my reward!!

 

Things don't work that way. We will NEVER "make up" for the endless torching of 2014-16, for instance. Thinking of things in those terms just leads to disappointment. Take it as it comes.

No ... have to take it as it comes. And like almost everyone else in the PNW... hoping lots of dry and warm is coming.

[Jesse]

No s**t... have to take it as it comes. And like almost everyone else in the PNW... hoping lots of dry and warm is coming.

 

Well, it doesn't seem like you are when you are on here bellyaching 14 hours a day.

[TT-SEA]

Well, it doesn't seem like you are when you are on here bellyaching 14 hours a day.

I was praising the weather for 5 days straight and have been more focused on what is coming after this current stretch. You are exaggerating as usual.

[TT-SEA]

Successful morning at the Snoqualmie Ridge community garage sale and it did not rain which was a blessing. My wife's favorite garage sale event of the year.

[Phil]

No s**t... have to take it as it comes. And like almost everyone else in the PNW... hoping lots of dry and warm is coming.

Dry and warm is not your climate. Summers like 2014 and 2015 are huge anomalies. Going to be awhile until you get a repeat of that.

[TT-SEA]

Dry and warm is not your climate. Summers like 2014 and 2015 are pretty big anomalies.

 

I know the climate here.  I endlessly study daily records back to the 1800s.   I know dry and warm is very frequently the weather here in the summer and after a very wet Feb-Apr period that type of weather typically starts in May at some point.  Dry weather in March and April is often a harbinger of a late start to summer as May and June end up cool and wet.   We had the worst March and April in history here.  

[Phil]

It will be 4 days above 70 here out of the first 18 days of May.

 

I don't call that "many". A few... but not many.

Not your climate. You don't live in San Diego. You live in a maritime climate above 40N.

[TT-SEA]

Not your climate. You don't live in San Diego. You live in a maritime climate above 40N.

 

Not a definition of our climate dummy... just a definition of the word "many".  

 

We had 16 days above 70 here in May of 1993.   That better fits the definition of many.  

[Phil]

I know the climate here. I endlessly study daily records back to the 1800s. I know dry and warm is very frequently the weather here in the summer and after a very wet Feb-Apr period that type of weather typically starts in May at some point. Dry weather in March and April is often a harbinger of a late start to summer as May and June end up cool and wet. We had the worst March and April in history here.

Yeah, and I have a detailed paleo record of your climate spanning the entirety of the last 23,000 years. Dry summers are actually an anomaly confined to the last 700 years, song with a stretch towards 500-800AD. This behavior is also episodic within both of these spans, typically manifesting in 100-250 year episodes.

 

The current system state has lasted since the 1760s and will be coming to an end at some point, probably sooner rather than later.

[TT-SEA]

Yeah, and I have a detailed paleo record of your climate spanning the entirety of the last 23,000 years. Dry summers are actually an anomaly confined to the last 700 years, song with a stretch towards 500-800AD. This behavior is also episodic within both of these spans, typically manifesting in 100-250 year episodes.

 

And we used to have really hot summers when the Earth was a ball of molten rock.   And we have had summers completely buried ice.   And in the future... our planet will not even exist!   

 

Trolling along Phillip.   

[Phil]

We had 16 days above 70 here in May of 1993. That better fits the definition of many.

May of 1993 was an epic blowtorch. What are you smoking?

 

This is not your climate.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/55DF9E68-1A1C-4C9E-97DF-DDE85C3393DB_zps77vzvpxn.png

[TT-SEA]

The current system state has lasted since the 1760s and will be coming to an end at some point, probably sooner rather than later.

 

 

Yeah... it was so dry and warm here in the 1800s.    

[TT-SEA]

May of 1993 was an epic blowtorch.

 

Again..not your climate!

 

 

 

Troll... troll... troll... troll... troll.   

 

Signing off.   The world will come to end in the future... must go enjoy it now!!

[Jesse]

Yeah... it was so dry and warm here in the 1800s.    

 

Aren't you always talking about stellar Summers from that era?

[TT-SEA]

Aren't you always talking about stellar Summers from that era?

 

Early part of the 20th century actually.    There were some doozy years for cold and wet and snow in the 1800s... as you obviously know.  

[Phil]

Troll... troll... troll... troll... troll.

 

Signing off. The world will come to end in the future... must go enjoy it now!!

You have a warped perspective of your climate. Me pointing that out isn't trolling, sorry.

[Jesse]

You have a warped perspective of your climate. Me pointing that out isn't trolling, sorry.

 

Warped expectations is probably a better way to put it.

[Jesse]

Early part of the 20th century actually.    There were some doozy years for cold and wet and snow in the 1800s... as you obviously know.  

 

For sure. If you are looking at our climate post-1760 or whatever, it would seem like the LIA (through the mid-late 1800s) versus the global warming era of now would be in their own groups. Very different animals.

[TT-SEA]

You have a warped perspective of your climate. Me pointing that out isn't trolling, sorry.

 

You are trolling.   As always.   

 

And we all have warped perspectives if you take into account the entire history of the Earth!    Who gives a flying crap... we are only here for a brief minute of time.  

 

We could sell our house today and buy a house in Hawaii with no problem at all.   Not too worried about the climate or what happened 1,000 or 10,000 or 50,000 or a million years ago. 

[Phil]

Early part of the 20th century actually. There were some doozy years for cold and wet and snow in the 1800s... as you obviously know.

The early 20th century and 1994-present timeframes have featured the driest summers since the end of the last ice age.

 

Do you think that's normal?

 

Look at the last interglacial (Eemian) ~ 125kyrs ago. Same behavior, dry summers set in right at the end of the interglacial but it's not the dominant climate state at all. It's brief and turns on/off with the flip of a switch sometimes.

[TT-SEA]

Warped expectations is probably a better way to put it.

 

Not at all.   My expectations are totally in line with our local history since the 1800s.   I know it inside and out.    We have some of the best summer weather in the country.  

[TT-SEA]

The early 20th century and 1994-present timeframes have featured the driest summers since the end of the last ice age.

 

Do you think that's normal?

 

Look at the last interglacial ~ 125kyrs ago. Same behavior, dry summers set in right at the end of the interglacial but it's not the dominant climate state at all. It's brief and turns on/off with the flip of a switch sometimes.

 

Great.   And we will all 'switch off' relatively soon here as well.   Who cares?   

 

Troll.

 

I can't wait until its 95 degrees with a dewpoint of 94 there.   What do you expect Phillip?    You live in a swamp.  

[Phil]

Right before the last interglacial (Eemian) ended, there was a dry/arid pulse that took place as the Asian Monsoons weakened in response to changes in orbital forcing. This is referred to as the LEAP (late Eemian arid pulse) which affected the PNW as well as Europe.

 

We're currently in the Holocene's late-stage "arid pulse". It actually peaked in the 1930s but it's a classic late-interglacial phenomenon.

 

FWIW, the LEAP ended in one year, with the onset of a strong Pacific jet and -NAM.

[Jesse]

Not at all. My expectations are totally in line with our local history since the 1800s. I know it inside and out. We have some of the best summer weather in the country.

And I'm sure that, overall, this summer will be no exception. February-May is not summer, of course. And definitely not known as our "nicest" period by your narrow definition.

[Phil]

Great. And we will all 'switch off' relatively soon here as well. Who cares?

 

Troll.

I'm not saying that at all. I'm saying that warm/dry summers are not "normal" up there, and even these dry stretches are punctuated by relatively wetter periods (like the 1800s, which are a very modest example, if anything).

 

Also, May of 1993 was anything but "normal" for you. It was a furnace even by modern standards.

 

I can't wait until its 95 degrees with a dewpoint of 94 there. What do you expect Phillip? You live in a swamp.

Is this really necessary, dude? I've accepted my climate for what it is, and plan to move north or west once I finish school.

 

Oh, and it's Philip. One L.

[TT-SEA]

And I'm sure that, overall, this summer will be no exception. February-May is not summer, of course.

 

No its not summer... I am looking at the Feb-Apr period compared to normal.  

[TT-SEA]

I'm not saying that at all. I'm saying that warm/dry summers are not "normal" up there, and even these dry stretches are punctuated by relatively wetter periods (like the 1800s, which is a very modest example).

 

Also, May of 1993 was anything but "normal" for you. It was a furnace even by modern standards.

 

 

Is this really necessary, dude? I've accepted my climate for what it is, and plan to move north or west once I finish school.

 

Oh, and it's Philip. One L.

 

 

Nothing is normal Phil if you extend the time span out long enough.   Our mere existence is VERY unusual when looking at the history of the Earth.  

[TT-SEA]

Also, May of 1993 was anything but "normal" for you. It was a furnace even by modern standards.

 

 

 

Side note... it was warmer than May of 1993 in May of 1992 and 1995 at SEA.   

[Phil]

Nothing is normal Phil if you extend the time span out long enough. Not even our existence is normal.

True, but that's on an entirely different level.

 

May of 1993 was much warmer/drier than average, even by 21st century standards. That's very abnormal for you guys. The only time I can think of where that was "normal" was MIS11, about 430kyrs ago, and that entire interglacial was an anomaly, lasting two precession cycles instead of one.

 

You have to go back to the Miocene (millions of years ago) for a dominant warm/dry PNW climate.

[TT-SEA]

True, but that's on an entirely different level.

 

May of 1993 was much warmer/drier than average, even by 21st century standards. That's very abnormal for you guys. The only time I can think of where that was "normal" was MIS11, about 430kyrs ago, and that entire interglacial was an anomaly, lasting two precession cycles instead of one.

 

You have to go back to the Miocene (millions of years ago) for a dominant warm/dry PNW climate.

 

You talk about the details of May 1993 and end up going back millions of years.   Only Phil.  

 

Just in the 1990s... it was warmer in May 1992 and 1995.  It was +3.9 at SEA... definitely above normal.  

 

I don't even care that much about temperature right now... just waiting for the inevitable flip to mainly dry for summer.    Its coming.   

[TT-SEA]

I checked the May 1993 temperature departure at SEA using the "Earth - Molten Ball" period and it was WAY below normal.

 

In fact May 1993 was incredibly frigid.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Pretty much non stop rain today.

[Phil]

You talk about the details of May 1993 and end up going back millions of years. Only Phil.

 

Just in the 1990s... it was warmer in May 1992 and 1995. It was +3.9 at SEA... definitely above normal.

 

I don't even care about temperature right now... just waiting for the inevitable flip to mainly dry for summer. Its coming.

You used 1993 as an example of what's "normal". In reality that was one of the warmest May's you've ever had. This May has been pretty typical out there, believe it or not.

 

Facts are facts..

 

If you're looking for a warm/dry stretch, you'll actually get your wish with the ~10 day stretch centered on late next week, as the MJO orbits the Pacific following the seasonal ignition of the Asain summer monsoonal circulation. Ridging will occur from May 17th to May 27th, +/- a few days on the end, depending on when the MJO returns to the Indo/maritime domain.

 

Once this MJO event cycles, the summer NH background state will manifest itself (in June). The shift in the forcing from 60E to

120E is the reason for your pattern change:

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/timeLon/vp850.anom.30.5S-5N.gif

[BLI snowman]

Gross day.

[James Jones]

Gross day.

 

Be thankful, because 20 years from now it will be snowing this time of year.

[TT-SEA]

You used 1993 as an example of what's "normal". In reality that was one of the warmest May's you've ever had. This May has been pretty typical out there, believe it or not.

 

 

 

 

I specifically stated that this has been a very normal May.  

 

I used 1993 as an example of "many" sunny and warm days... which Jesse said we have had this month.    Never once said this is not a normal May.    I only was stating that we have not had "many" sunny and warm days this month... only 4.  

 

A very normal May.