May 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Phil]

I specifically stated that this has been a very normal May.

Then what are you complaining about?

[BLI snowman]

Be thankful, because 20 years from now it will be snowing this time of year.

 

I did some reading on nuclear winter and it sounds like it would actually be pretty fun.

[TT-SEA]

Then what are you complaining about?

Nothing. I just said some ridging and variety would be nice.

 

To which you have been trying to convince me its raining and cold every second of every minute of every day forever here normally.

 

And I know that is not true.  

[Timmy Supercell]

Snow flakes coming down in Klamath Falls. 3:50pm. There must have been a sharp temperature drop because it was 52 degrees moments ago at KLMT.

[Phil]

Nothing. I just said some ridging and variety would be nice.

 

To which you have been trying to convince me its raining and cold every second of every minute of every day forever here normally.

 

And I know that is not true.

Then why have you been screaming about how historically cold/wet this Spring has been? Historically speaking, this has been a modestly cool/wet Spring in the PNW. Nothing to write home about, for the most part. If you can't handle modest pattern excursions like this, how will you manage yourself the next time a legitimately nasty Spring occurs?

[Phil]

I checked the May 1993 temperature departure at SEA using the "Earth - Molten Ball" period and it was WAY below normal.

 

In fact May 1993 was incredibly frigid.

FWIW, a slew of strong La Niña years are on the horizon for the early 2020s, following the El Niño of 2019/20 (IPWP response to the solar wind minimum). This is actually a fairly predictable cycle, and it has been growing in amplitude through the historical record.

 

So if I were you, I'd think about moving during the early portion of 2020, at the conclusion of the Niño winter. I'm actually not trolling on this one.

[Front Ranger]

Then why have you been screaming about how historically cold/wet this Spring has been? Historically speaking, this has been a modestly cool/wet Spring in the PNW. Nothing to write home about, for the most part. If you can't handle modest pattern excursions like this, how will you manage yourself the next time a legitimately nasty Spring occurs?

The Feb-Apr period was historically wet for much of the area. By historically, I mean of course the period of record. Tim's not wrong about that.

[TT-SEA]

FWIW, a slew of strong La Niña years are on the horizon for the early 2020s, following the El Niño of 2019/20 (IPWP response to solar minimum). If I were you, I'd think about moving during the early portion of 2020, at the conclusion of the Niño winter.

This isn't a troll post. This is actually a fairly predictable cycle.

You are SO concerned with us moving... even though we love it here. If we don't love it then we can sell in about a day and take our equity and live mortgage free in some other place.

 

La Ninas can be very nice here. Cold and snowy winters and sunny summers. Not too worried about it. A Nino delivered the worst winter in history here in 2015-16.

[Front Ranger]

FWIW, a slew of strong La Niña years are on the horizon for the early 2020s, following the El Niño of 2019/20 (IPWP response to the solar wind minimum). This is actually a fairly predictable cycle, and it has been growing in amplitude through the historical record.

 

So if I were you, I'd think about moving during the early portion of 2020, at the conclusion of the Niño winter. I'm actually not trolling on this one.

Weren't you predicting a slew of Ninas 2015-2018 a few years ago? After the initial descent into a new ice age starting in 2013, of course.

[Phil]

The Feb-Apr period was historically wet for much of the area. By historically, I mean of course the period of record. Tim's not wrong about that.

Looking at ESRL for WA/OR since 1895, I have it as the 47th wettest for F/M/A. So, moderately wetter than average, actually right in the middle of the pack for wetter than average years.

[TT-SEA]

Looking at ESRL for WA/OR since 1895, I have it as the 47th wettest for F/M/A. So, moderately wetter than average, actually right in the middle of the pack for wetter than average years.

 

Wettest Feb-Apr ever at SEA... and the most days with rain ever.

 

Wettest Oct-Apr ever at SEA... and the most days with rain ever.

 

Same thing for the stations around my location.  

 

It has never been this wet and persistently wet in this area since records have been kept beginning in the late 1800s.   And this is a wet climate.

[Phil]

Weren't you predicting a slew of Ninas 2015-2018 a few years ago? After the initial descent into a new ice age starting in 2013, of course.

Thats not what I predicted. It you want clarification, ask me and I'll provide it. No charge.

 

Look, if you wish to lie about your voting record, I honestly couldn't care less. But please, don't lie about my predictions or put words in my mouth. That's one of my pet peeves.

[James Jones]

Looking at ESRL for WA/OR since 1895, I have it as the 47th wettest for F/M/A. So, moderately wetter than average, actually right in the middle of the pack for wetter than average years.

 

East of the Cascades, it's a completely different climate zone. Using the states as a whole makes no sense. For the Willamette Valley, it's the 2nd wettest Feb-April on record back to 1895, and it's the wettest on record for the Puget Sound lowlands. 

 

Tim's complaining has absolutely been over the top, but he's not wrong about it being historically rainy.

[Deweydog]

According to both Jesus and his dad, historic warmth is the only thing worth overreacting to. Any other hysterical dissent about climate anomalies should be judged heavily and mercilessly.

 

It's in the f*cking bible, people.

[Guest Dome Buster]

Looks like a D**n mid-winter pacific out there.  Lots of chances for Tstorms at least through Monday afternoon IMO.  Had a good rumble here in Happy Valley just a few minutes ago.   I also heard of a funnel cloud around Glisan st.

[WeatherArchive]

Squeezed out another fifty four hundredths of an inch in the ole bucket.  The temps the past few days have been bouncing around like Tigger on drugs doing the whoopy dooper whatever he calls it bounce.  It started off chilly at 46F then went up to 60F briefly under noon sun appearing which under a steady shower dropped back to 47F then rose an hour later to 58F.  Now it's 51F again with showers all around us.

 

This has been a very *bouncy* spring temp wise yet no real cold waves or warm waves to define. We don't have the heat on now but at night a lot we've had to lightly use it.  No wonder everybody's moods are so sour.  

 

We're all bouncing like  Tigger on meth doing his whoopy dooper whatever he calls it bounce due to the crazy temp changes within a few hours.

[Phil]

For Flatiron:

 

- I predicted a move to tropical radiative equilibrium in 2013, in response to the completion of the dampening IPWP/W-H resonance of zonal cyclicality to external forcing. The zonal dampening and poleward Hadley Cell migration began in the late 1970s and ended in 2013, right on time. It was probably the most accurate prediction of my young life, as the zonal Pacific gradient in convection/W-H ratio reversed, leading to the shift into +PDO/+PMM, the reduction in tropical wind speeds/convection, and the cessation of the poleward expansion of the Hadley Cells. Radiative equilibrium has now been achieved, as a positive running radiative imbalance is now present in the CERES data for the first time since its inception.

 

- I predicted an extended period of weak ENSO from 2013 to 2015, concluding with a moderate El Niño in 2015/16 and the beginning of overall global cooling period immediately afterwards in 2017, +/- 1yr, with a period of -ENSO from 2017 to 2019 (I said nothing about a strong Niña). I did underestimate the Niño, but then again I didn't expect the QBO to behave in the manner that it did.

 

- I predicted overall global cooling at a rate of ~0.15C/decade from 2017 to 2020 +/- 1yr on both ends, increasing thereafter to ~0.3C/decade from 2020 to 2030, again +/- 2yrs on both ends.

 

I'm more confident than ever in this prediction.

[WeatherArchive]

Snow flakes coming down in Klamath Falls. 3:50pm. There must have been a sharp temperature drop because it was 52 degrees moments ago at KLMT.

Temps have been bouncing around like Tigger on dope doing his bouncy whooper dooper something or another bounce and it's making our moods bounce around too.

[Front Ranger]

[Jesse]

Gross day.

For sure. I saw several lush, green trees and blooming rhododendrons puking due to excess nourishment on our drive across town today.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[Phil]

Interesting. After the record breaking -NAO stretch (for the month of May), we look to go right back into the +NAO background state like it was nothing. Gotta admire the beauty of intraseasonal forcing. Can almost completely mask the low frequency state.

 

The big question is whether the +NAO can sustain through the J/J/A period. The last decade has featured a mostly semipermanent -NAO during the heart of boreal summer, due to stronger off-equator Pacific convection and a boreal summer/fall +AMM under the weakening Asian monsoonal circulations, which typically dominate the equatorial circulo-convective state.

 

The one exception was 2013, a year in which Arctic ice volume grew by a whopping 30% over the next winter due to the reduced summer melt that year:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/19B486F3-2069-467B-8C96-BCCF2EB769F6_zps05svcc1o.jpg

[BLI snowman]

For sure. I saw several lush, green trees and blooming rhododendrons puking due to excess nourishment on our drive across town today.

 

I saw several homeless families with sick looking children holding "cold and wet" cardboard signs while cars splashed puddles into them and smoke poured out of nearby factories.

[Jesse]

I saw several homeless families with sick looking children holding "cold and wet" cardboard signs while cars splashed puddles into them and smoke poured out of nearby factories.

Homeless people are eyesores and should be ground into cheap dog food.

[DareDuck]

Not a drop of rain here in Bend today. Less than a tenth of an inch in the last week here. Chilly day though, barely reached 50 despite not being cooled by any precip.

[Phil]

Wow, yeah this would be a major swing, at least for a time.

 

Convection develops over the IO (monsoonal genesis) and subsidence returns to the Atlantic. This type of boundary state would theoretically favor a +NAO, as extra mass is dumped onto the Eurasian continent, accelerating the NW-Pacific jet and throwing an anticyclone over the NPAC/GOA, in accordance with early summer climatology.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/AC5C5E8C-F139-4F88-8BDD-3833E82C3CAF_zpsqehwmtyd.png

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/5D6BDDA4-748D-4E2D-8A9A-744453588595_zpsx4vpkgxz.png

[SilverFallsAndrew]

48/39 today. An Andrew and Jesse kind of day.

[Jesse]

Wow, yeah this would be a major swing, at least for a time.

 

Convection develops over the IO (monsoonal genesis) and subsidence returns to the Atlantic. This type of boundary state would theoretically favor a +NAO, as extra mass is dumped onto the Eurasian continent, accelerating the NW-Pacific jet and throwing an anticyclone over the NPAC/GOA, in accordance with early summer climatology.

 

 

So basically the opposite of everything you've been predicting the last several months?

[Phil]

So basically the opposite of everything you've been predicting the last several months?

Huh?

 

Edit: This is an MJO wave associated with the IO monsoonal ignition. Not a background state, or a move towards La Niña.

[James Jones]

Looks like PDX is going to set a record low max today. 54 was the old record in 1999, high of 53 so far today.

[Jesse]

Huh?

 

Edit: This is an MJO wave associated with the IO monsoonal ignition. Not a background state, or a move towards La Niña.

Ok. Maybe I misunderstood. I've just being hearing a lot about how the IO has been so quiet and the -NAO has been raging, and how both of those things will continue, moving into summer.

[Jesse]

Just came through the Tigard/King City area and they must have gotten a tremendous amount of hail a little bit ago. Several inch "drifts" in spots.

I'll post pics in a bit.

[Phil]

Ok. Maybe I misunderstood. I've just being hearing a lot about how the IO has been so quiet and the -NAO has been raging, and how both of those things will continue, moving into summer.

I haven't made a summer NAO prediction yet, but obviously that will be an important factor in whether you guys flip warm later in the summer, or get hosed by the Pacific instead. The other factor is the strength and longitude of the Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP).

 

If the analogs and modeling are correct with the active and poleward Atlantic ITCZ, and the impotent eastern flank of the IPWP (cooler SSTAs/less convection near the dateline) then I'm definitely leaning towards the classic -NAO and west coast trough, since you'd have more exhaust (heat/mass) from the Atlantic ITCZ dumped over the NATL, and less convective exhaust dumped over the subtropical NW-Pacific.

[Jesse]

Looks like PDX is going to set a record low max today. 54 was the old record in 1999, high of 53 so far today.

Also the third thunderstorm day of the month so far at PDX. Although the 4th/5th kind of cheated since the storms happened right around midnight.

 

May done right.

[Jesse]

This is the median of highway 99 in King City. Just south of Beef Bend Road.

 

[Timmy Supercell]

Got something to support my claim of flakes observed earlier (no pictures sorry). Literally from 52 degrees (no chill) to 43 and windchill of 33 in one hour! That's quite a drop. It can very easily flake in the upper 30's here and sometimes at 40-42. However KLMT infrequently reports wet snow for some reason. In March and April typically when I get wet flakes they would say light rain.

 

http://i66.tinypic.com/rkzo90.jpg

[Phil]

The likelihood of a very cool June is growing for the western states. Nearly unanimous agreement amongst the tropical analogs and seasonal modeling at this point.

 

The pattern looks coherent on the low frequency and should last through the solstice, perhaps longer if the MJO goes dormant again.

[TT-SEA]

The likelihood of a very cool June is growing for the western states. Nearly unanimous agreement amongst the tropical analogs and seasonal modeling at this point.

 

The pattern looks coherent on the low frequency and should last through the solstice, perhaps longer if the MJO goes dormant again.

 

Just checking the CFS and the ECMWF weeklies on WeatherBell and not seeing unanimous agreement for a cold June here.   

 

Side note-- I believe a cold June usually means a wet June here.  

 

Here is June from the CFS monthly released yesterday morning:

 

 

 

The ECMWF weeklies seem to indicate cooler weather in the SW but not so much up here.    It looks like a weak ULL pattern over the Intermountain West with us on the nice side... I guess this would be one way to have a slightly cooler than normal and generally dry June.   Weekly update through June:

 

 

 

 

 

 

And the Canadian model monthly forecast for June:

 

[stuffradio]

Then why have you been screaming about how historically cold/wet this Spring has been? Historically speaking, this has been a modestly cool/wet Spring in the PNW. Nothing to write home about, for the most part. If you can't handle modest pattern excursions like this, how will you manage yourself the next time a legitimately nasty Spring occurs?

What a bizarre statement. We broke rain records that were last held in the 50's, how is that modestly wet/cool? We also broke records for the least amount of sun in March, and it's been colder than normal in decades.

[TT-SEA]

What a bizarre statement. We broke rain records that were last held in the 50's, how is that modestly wet/cool? We also broke records for the least amount of sun in March, and it's been colder than normal in decades.

It was much wetter a million years ago. Normal weather records don't matter when Phil is trolling.

 

Although he has pointed out many times about breaking the NAO record which goes back to 1895. I am sure that record is meaningful in the 4 billion year history of the Earth.