May 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

Another 4-8" expected above 5,000 in the Northern Oregon/Southern Washington Cascades today.

[GobBluth]

Impressive cold pool in the NW Pacific - where did that come from?

[TT-SEA]

Impressive cold pool in the NW Pacific - where did that come from?

 

 

Formed in the last 7 days... rising PDO.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

[Jesse]

Formed in the last 7 days... rising PDO.

 

 

Waters off our coast look to be cooling as well.

[jcmcgaffey]

Great travel day over the passes to go to Leavenworth for a few days. Did not think we were going to have to worry about snow. We went this same time last year and it was in the 90s.

[TT-SEA]

Waters off our coast look to be cooling as well.

 

 

Oh no!   

 

Looks generally like a rising PDO pattern.  

[Tyler Mode]

This is Longmire at Mt. Rainier. This sits at 2,700'. That's a huge dump of snow at that elevation for this time of the year. Was bare this morning!

[Jesse]

Oh no!

 

Looks generally like a rising PDO pattern.

Ok, you win this round.

 

I've never understood how someone could be wound so tight over colors on the surface of the ocean.

[Jesse]

Make a comment about SSTs cooling somewhere in the NE Pacific or ENSO zones. It could literally be any time of day, and you will get a frantic response from Tim about how it's warming somewhere else within minutes.

[Deweydog]

Make a comment about SSTs cooling somewhere in the NE Pacific or ENSO zones. It could literally be any time of day, and you will get a frantic response from Tim about how it's warming somewhere else within minutes.

Brilliant, groundbreaking stuff. I would have went with three LOL's though.

[TT-SEA]

Ok, you win this round.

 

I've never understood how someone could be wound so tight over colors on the surface of the ocean.

 

I have never understood how someone can jump on every SSTA update that comes from me even if its purely factual.   I did not even notice the cold pool or bring it up this morning.   I looked at the 7-day change and its a rising PDO pattern.   Nothing more to be said.   No opinions necessary.   It is what it is.   I don't think it has much of an effect anyways... and I would also report a falling PDO pattern and have many times.

 

How was anything frantic?   

[Jesse]

I have never understood how someone can jump on every SSTA update that comes from me even if its purely factual. I did not even notice the cold pool or bring it up this morning. I looked at the 7-day change and its a rising PDO pattern. Nothing more to be said. No opinions necessary. It is what it is. I don't think it has much of an effect anyways... and I would also report a falling PDO pattern and have many times.

 

How was anything frantic?

I wasn't jumping on anything. Just pointing out the cooling offshore. You seem to mention it every time it's warming, but you missed the cooling this time.

[Jesse]

This is Longmire at Mt. Rainier. This sits at 2,700'. That's a huge dump of snow at that elevation for this time of the year. Was bare this morning!

That's super impressive for this time of year.

 

47 with very heavy rain here this morning. I love it!

[TT-SEA]

I wasn't jumping on anything. Just pointing out the cooling offshore. You seem to mention it every time it's warming, but you missed the cooling this time.

 

 

I think you are anxious about a warm pool off our coast (mental scars from 2014-16) and rising PDO and you are attacking anyone reporting on it.   

 

I mentioned cooling many times as well.   A rising PDO will generally result in a warm pool off our coast and generally its been warming in that region.   Whatever.

[Jesse]

I think you are anxious about a warm pool off our coast (mental scars from 2014-16) and rising PDO and you are attacking anyone reporting on it.

 

I mentioned cooling many times as well. A rising PDO will generally result in a warm pool off our coast and generally its been warming in that region. Whatever.

Oh Tim.

[TT-SEA]

Oh Tim.

 

Its true.   And you are patronizing.  

 

I was barely even paying attention this morning and yet you jumped on me for being "frantic" for responding and pointing out it was a rising PDO pattern... and supposedly hiding some tiny spot of blue in a general area of warming in the GOA where it will likely warm overall with a rising PDO.   

[Jesse]

Brilliant, groundbreaking stuff. I would have went with three LOL's though.

*would have gone

[Jesse]

Its true. And you are patronizing.

 

I was barely even paying attention this morning and yet you jumped on me for being "frantic" for responding and pointing out it was a rising PDO pattern... and supposedly hiding some tiny spot of blue in a general area of warming in the GOA where it will likely warm overall with a rising PDO.

Ohhhh Tim. :wub:

[TT-SEA]

Ohhhh Tim. :wub:

 

Whatever.   Patronizing and sanctimonious.    I will return the favor soon enough.   

[Jesse]

Whatever. Patronizing and sanctimonious. I will return the favor soon enough.

I'm just trying to move on. Would you rather I respond to your frantic SST ramblings in a similarly frantic manner?

[TT-SEA]

I'm just trying to move on. Would you rather I respond to your frantic SST ramblings in a similarly frantic manner?

 

Here are my frantic responses... just crazy.   I am talking about you jumping on me for nothing.   Not the SSTA maps.  

 

 

Formed in the last 7 days... rising PDO.

 

 

 

Oh no!   

 

Looks generally like a rising PDO pattern.  

 

[Jesse]

Here are my frantic responses...

Ohhhhhhhhhhhh Tim. :wub:

[Deweydog]

The Jesse/Flatiron battle of spring 2017 has finally come full circle.

[TT-SEA]

Ohhhhhhhhhhhh Tim. :wub:

 

You did it.   No idea why.    Typical Jesse.  

[Jesse]

You did it. No idea why. Typical Jesse.

Dude. All I said was it looks like SSTs were dropping offshore, and you made a sarcastic "Oh no!" and ran for your +PDO security blanket. You completely started this.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1.02" of rain in 12 hours. Fairly impressive. Over 4" on the month now!

[DareDuck]

1.02" of rain in 12 hours. Fairly impressive. Over 4" on the month now!

Not a drop here in Bend. Pretty amazing we have seen hardly any rain this month. Even Mt. Bachelor only picked up a couple inches of snow. Pretty disappointing storm.

[TT-SEA]

Dude. All I said was it looks like SSTs were dropping offshore, and you made a sarcastic "Oh no!" and ran for your +PDO security blanket. You completely started this.

 

This is your problem.   I was gently mocking your knee-jerk response to a factual statement about the PDO rising.     Not frantic in any way.   I thought you came across as needing your security blanket of cold water offshore.  

 

PDO is rising.   That is all.    1983 and 1993 featured a crazy +PDO.       

[Jesse]

This is your problem. I was gently mocking your knee-jerk response to a factual statement about the PDO rising. Not frantic in any way. I thought you came across as needing your security blanket of cold water offshore.

 

PDO is rising. That is all. 1983 and 1993 featured a crazy +PDO.

Good lord man. Not everything needs to be a battle in the warm season.

[Jesse]

Not a drop here in Bend. Pretty amazing we have seen hardly any rain this month. Even Mt. Bachelor only picked up a couple inches of snow. Pretty disappointing storm.

It's pretty early. Better dynamics will be moving down that way as the day wears on.

[TT-SEA]

Good lord man. Not everything needs to be a battle in the warm season.

No .

 

I responded to a question about a new cold pool and simply stated the PDO is rising. You jumped in to report some little area of blue offshore. You should be able to take a 'oh no!' response to that post and leave it at that but you went off on me being frantic.

[Front Ranger]

A thick fog of lightheartedness hangs over the forum today.

[Jesse]

A thick fog of lightheartedness hangs over the forum today.

Trying pretty hard to be one of the cool kids these days huh?

[Front Ranger]

Trying pretty hard to be one of the cool kids these days huh?

There are no cool kids here. Only nerds having light-hearted, nerdy discussions with other nerds.

[TT-SEA]

There are no cool kids here. Only nerds having light-hearted, nerdy discussions with other nerds.

Funny because its true!

[stuffradio]

I got .78" of rain since 5PM yesterday. I'm almost at 5" of rain this month. I'm at 4.84" so far.

[DareDuck]

It's pretty early. Better dynamics will be moving down that way as the day wears on.

Hopefully. I just want one good shower before we move into the dry period, which I'm actually looking forward to. More importantly I hope the Bachelor picks up a few inches today. Not that they need it, one more powder would be nice though.

 

They're actually completely closed due to high winds and poor visibility today.

[bainbridgekid]

I've never seen anything like this 2 weeks from June.

 

It's 10:30 AM and it is literally 39 degrees here with bone chilling rain.

 

Almost comical. Almost.

 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KWALYNNW15

[TT-SEA]

It's almost comical how bad the weather is today.

 

May 16th at 10:30 AM and it is literally 39 degrees here with bone chilling rain.

 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KWALYNNW15

 

No opinions please.   As you know... most people consider this 'good' weather in May.   Ask around.   

[Phil]

Formed in the last 7 days... rising PDO.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

Would explain Jared's antsy behavior lately.