July 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[Jesse]

Jesse can appreciate above normal temps in the summer...who knew?

 

7dTDeptWRCC-NW.png

Stop trying so hard.

[Front Ranger]

Stop trying so hard.

 

Minimal effort required.

 

It's just interesting. Perhaps your preferences are slowly evolving with age?

[TT-SEA]

It's been pretty perfect. Dry and sunny but not scorching hot. This is the kind of weather Jim and I hope for. Generally you misunderstand this and end up mocking us for wanting clouds and rain all summer for some reason.

 

I have said many times that we probably agree more than you think on summer weather.   You seem think I want it to be 105 degrees with thick smoke and wildfires.    <_>

 

I know for a fact that Jim does not want rain all summer.   He hates rain in the summer and generally mocks our gloomy weather in all seasons.   He would love frost in the summer which obviously is not something I would like... but overall we agree on what is considered "nice" weather.

 

You and Andrew explicitly cheer for summers like 1983 and 1993 in which it was unusually and persistently gloomy and rainy.   That might be the source of my "misunderstanding".    More power to you!  

[Jesse]

Minimal effort required.

 

It's just interesting. Perhaps your preferences are slowly evolving with age?

Not at all. You just have my "preferences" unfairly cubbyholed.

[Front Ranger]

Not at all. You just have my "preferences" unfairly cubbyholed.

 

I was just teasing you, champ. I've only seen you cheer for below normal or normal summer temps before. Seems your stance may be softening a bit in that respect.

[Jesse]

I have said many times that we probably agree more than you think on summer weather. You seem think I want it to be 105 degrees with thick smoke and wildfires. <_>

 

I know for a fact that Jim does not want rain all summer. He hates rain in the summer and generally mocks our gloomy weather in all seasons. He would love frost in the summer which obviously is not something I would like... but overall we agree on what is considered "nice" weather.

 

You and Andrew explicitly cheer for summers like 1983 and 1993 in which it was unusually and persistently gloomy and rainy. That might be the source of my "misunderstanding". More power to you!

Oh I know how much you love wildfires.

 

A wet and cool summer would be interesting to experience at some point, but just because I wouldn't totally lose my over it doesn't mean I want one every year. Very high heat is interesting sometimes too.

[Jesse]

I was just teasing you, champ. I've only seen you cheer for below normal or normal summer temps before. Seems your stance may be softening a bit in that respect.

Yeah, no.

 

Maybe you missed some of my cheering during your post +PDO humiliation soul search/hiatus.

[Deweydog]

Touchy Tuesday on a Wednesday!

[TT-SEA]

Oh I know how much you love wildfires.

 

A wet and cool summer would be interesting to experience at some point, but just because I wouldn't totally lose my s**t over it doesn't mean I want one every year. Very high heat is interesting sometimes too.

 

Thanks for clarifying!   Fascinating.   

[Jesse]

Thanks for clarifying! Fascinating.

Sorry. I know you are generally too good for opinion-delineating posts. Don't you generally keep you quota at 50 or less per day?

[TT-SEA]

Sorry. I know you are generally too good for opinion-delineating posts. Don't you generally keep you quota at 50 or less per day?

 

30 or less.  

[Jesse]

This stuff is REALLY important guys!!!!

 

There, do I appear sufficiently about the fray now too? Or does the very fact that I as well have made thousands of posts here make that impossible and hypocritical?

[Front Ranger]

Yeah, no.

 

Maybe you missed some of my cheering during your post +PDO humiliation soul search/hiatus.

 

I left to go on hiatus while the PDO was still negative. Theory debunked!

[Jesse]

I left to go on hiatus while the PDO was still negative. Theory debunked!

Maybe, but the writing was on the wall. I think your theories about the long term trends of the PDO were more thoroughly debunked.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF rides the line of perfection for us for at least the next week.   

 

Just repeat today over and over again.  

[Front Ranger]

Maybe, but the writing was on the wall. I think your theories about the long term trends of the PDO were more thoroughly debunked.

 

I wasn't the only one pointing out that the previous -PDO episode had persisted for 20-30 years.

 

However, that always came with the caveat that we were looking at a very small sample size.

 

My theories presented in early 2008 about PNW Arctic outbreaks/snowfall increasing during -PDO episodes worked out pretty well.

[Phil]

Jesse can appreciate above normal temps in the summer...who knew?

 

7dTDeptWRCC-NW.png

Some relatively cool departures coming over the next 10+ days, though. Might start seeing blues expand at the coast.

 

Would fit climo with the MJO in phases 3/4.

[Jesse]

I wasn't the only one pointing out that the previous -PDO episode had persisted for 20-30 years.

 

However, that always came with the caveat that we were looking at a very small sample size.

 

My theories presented in early 2008 about PNW Arctic outbreaks/snowfall increasing during -PDO episodes worked out pretty well.

Your the best forecaster evar.

[Deweydog]

This stuff is REALLY important guys!!!!

 

There, do I appear sufficiently about the fray now too? Or does the very fact that I as well have made thousands of posts here make that impossible and hypocritical?

Just pick an elevation, dude. Be true to thyself.

[Front Ranger]

Some relatively cool departures coming over the next 10+ days, though. Might start seeing blues expand at the coast.

 

Maybe. Looks more above normal than below normal to me over next 10 days, if current model runs are close. Everywhere inland from the coast will be easily above normal halfway through the month, that's for sure.

[Phil]

I wasn't the only one pointing out that the previous -PDO episode had persisted for 20-30 years.

 

However, that always came with the caveat that we were looking at a very small sample size.

 

My theories presented in early 2008 about PNW Arctic outbreaks/snowfall increasing during -PDO episodes worked out pretty well.

the most significant winters in PNW history occurred during +PDO, including those back in the 1860-1890 period. The PDO

doesn't drive anything.

 

Storm king occurred in a +PDO winter (1880).

[Jesse]

Just pick an elevation, dude. Be true to thyself.

I like gradients. I'm a hiker after all.

[Front Ranger]

Your the best forecaster evar.

 

Your welcum. 

[TT-SEA]

Maybe. Looks more above normal than below normal to me over next 10 days, if current model runs are close. Everywhere inland from the coast will be easily above normal halfway through the month, that's for sure.

 

Probably... or maybe very close to normal.

 

As we have pointed out many times... cool 850mb temps do not always mean cool surface temps in the summer here.   

[Front Ranger]

the most significant winters in PNW history occurred during +PDO, including those back in the 1860-1890 period. The PDO

doesn't drive anything.

 

Storm king occurred in a +PDO winter (1880).

 

 

And I've never claimed it does. 

 

We don't have any accurate PDO measurements from the 1800s.

[Jesse]

Your welcum.

Gross.

[Phil]

Maybe. Looks more above normal than below normal to me over next 10 days, if current model runs are close. Everywhere inland from the coast will be easily above normal halfway through the month, that's for sure.

The modeling is cooler than average, verbatim. That could change, though.

[Phil]

We don't have any accurate PDO measurements from the 1800s.

False. We can accurately reconstruct the PDO through the entirety of the LIA, using a number of climatic indicators and proxies.

[Jesse]

Just browsing the 12z Euro it looks like a cooler than average pattern overall to me. Although western lowland departures will be pretty dependent upon the frequency and strength of flow reversal/marine layer days like tomorrow. That is always hard to predict beyond a few days out.

[Phil]

Those big PNW winters in the 19th century occurred during a strong +PDO circulation. In fact, it's the +PDO that correlates to cooling and glacial advance across the NH, in the long run.

 

The MWP and corresponding western US megadroughts occurred under a super -PDO, unlike anything we've seen in our lifetimes.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/864D9D1B-A9A8-4036-B821-E8C678E8BA7A_zps4qh06kev.png

[TT-SEA]

Just browsing the 12z Euro it looks like a cooler than average pattern overall to me. Although western lowland departures will be pretty dependent upon the frequency and strength of flow reversal/marine layer days like tomorrow. That is always hard to predict beyond a few days out.

 

The ECMWF surface maps show a significant marine intrusion tomorrow morning and then only broken low clouds in the mornings after that and then no low clouds at all after about day 6 or 7.  

 

It looks like a very sunny pattern overall after tomorrow... which tends to get us close to normal even with cool 850mb temps.   

[Jesse]

The ECMWF surface maps show a significant marine intrusion tomorrow morning and then only broken low clouds in the mornings after that and then no low clouds at all after about day 6 or 7.

 

It looks like a very sunny pattern overall after tomorrow... which tends to get us close to normal even with cool 850mb temps.

Tomorrow looked sunny up until a few days ago.

 

Like I said, that micro to mesoscale stuff is hard to forecast beyond a few days out, even for the Euro.

[TT-SEA]

Tomorrow looked sunny up until a few days ago.

 

Like I said, that micro to mesoscale stuff is hard to forecast beyond a few days out, even for the Euro.

 

True.   

 

And today looked quite cloudy a couple days ago and Thursday looked sunny.   I think the marine intrusion was delayed.   

[Phil]

Difference in *winter* circulation, between the Holocene thermal maximum (very warm) and the late Holocene (cooling over the last 4000yrs).

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/03A346BF-C459-40C5-80F6-C32738AF0088_zpsrn7o9cu6.png

[Kayla]

Actually MSU appears to be at the top of the list at this point.  I think we are hitting Missoula Thursday and Bozeman Friday.  Really the main reason we are doing Missoula is to have something to compare MSU against.  He's looking at majoring in Chemistry (I think Environmental Chemistry to be more specific) and is very drawn to the idea of summer job opportunities at Yellowstone.  As for his parents, we like the idea that he will be able to get away from mom and dad but still be within 2.5 hrs of pretty much all of the family on my wife's side, and within 3 hrs of Grandma.

 

From what I am seeing, Bozeman looks like its running about 5 degrees cooler than Missoula, and the place we are actually staying (family ranch) is pretty much splitting the difference.

 

It will be interesting to see how my son handles the dry air.  He struggles here in Bellingham when we get the Frazier outflows in the winter (we all do for that matter....my family definitely has webbed feet  ).  I think he will love it out there though.

 

Oh that's great! My wife works at MSU (along with half the population here) at the graduate school. It really is a great school and they have an awesome Chemistry program and hear they are doing great work there. Keep me updated on what he decides!

 

Bozeman definitely runs quite a bit cooler and is wetter than Missoula. Things stay pretty green around here in the late spring through July. The added elevation (Bozeman 4,800' compared to Missoula at 3,200') and being east of the divide both help in producing much more rain and especially snowfall (almost double). We looked at both cities pretty extensively before we made the move.  Both cities have a lot to offer but just feel like Bozeman has more to offer. The cooler temps and added precip throughout the year was also a big draw for us obviously. You'll find even higher snowfall totals of ~110" a year if you head just a few miles south or east of town with closer proximity to the Gallatin range and added elevation.

 

A few stats show quite the contrast between the two cities:

Missoula –

Average July high – 84.7º

Average Dec min – 15.3º

Average yearly precip – 13.61"

Average yearly snowfall – 45.3"

 

Bozeman – 

Average July high – 81.4º

Average Dec min – 12.0º

Average yearly precip – 18.48"

Average yearly snowfall 86.0"

[Jesse]

True.

 

And today looked quite cloudy a couple days ago and Thursday looked sunny. I think the marine intrusion was delayed.

I don't remember today looking cloudy. I think what throws a wrench in things is that the models have been waffling the large scale pattern too. That ULL being just a little closer makes a big difference.

[Jesse]

Difference in *winter* circulation, between the Holocene thermal maximum (very warm) and the late Holocene (cooling over the last 4000yrs).

 

 

Humid winters in the upper Midwest?

[BLI snowman]

The ECMWF surface maps show a significant marine intrusion tomorrow morning and then only broken low clouds in the mornings after that and then no low clouds at all after about day 6 or 7.  

 

It looks like a very sunny pattern overall after tomorrow... which tends to get us close to normal even with cool 850mb temps.   

 

GFS shows a trough with heavy localized rain and gray in the North Sound at Day 8-9. Potentially worrisome, IMO.

[TT-SEA]

I don't remember today looking cloudy. I think what throws a wrench in things is that the models have been waffling the large scale pattern too. That ULL being just a little closer makes a big difference.

 

The ULL being closer in recent runs seems to have reduced the low cloud coverage in the ECMWF surface maps.   

 

Over the weekend... it looked like it would be cloudy up here today (on the ECMWF) until early evening.   Now it shows that tomorrow.   Today started out perfectly sunny at dawn.   

[TT-SEA]

GFS shows a trough with heavy localized rain and gray in the North Sound at Day 8-9. Potentially worrisome, IMO.

 

The ECMWF shows wall-to-wall sunshine on those days for the entire region.