September 2017 Observations and Discussion

[Niko]

It's interesting how the NHC has this weakening to a cat 4 as it enters even warmer waters. This thing is a complete catastrophic event in the making. What a friggin beast of a buzzsaw. Scheduled to attend a conference in Miami in November. The city might not even be there if this thing stays on course.

Underwater for sure!

[james1976]

For the record (and Irma may move up the list???):

 

20170905 Top Atlantic Cane winds list.jpg

Thanks for this!! I may have been thinking wind gusts or something.

[Niko]

Winds are now 180mph!!!

[St Paul Storm]

12z GFS a tick east but more or less unchanged on the track. S FL is in serious trouble. With the size of this thing, both coasts are in trouble.

[Tom]

Winds are now 180mph!!!

This storm is something else. The keys of FL will get wiped out. Imagine the bridges that connect the keys together? If they get wiped, it will be a nightmare getting supplies down there.

[jaster220]

It's interesting how the NHC has this weakening to a cat 4 as it enters even warmer waters. This thing is a complete catastrophic event in the making. What a friggin beast of a buzzsaw. Scheduled to attend a conference in Miami in November. The city might not even be there if this thing stays on course.

 

THIS! (..if this plays out)

 

 

 

Winds are now 180mph!!!

 

And at least (4) of the tropical models maintain CAT-5 intensity the next five days. Totally unprecedented stuff here, as usually they drop into CAT-4 shortly after hitting 5. The longest lasting 72 hrs.     Just sayin..Tom called it!

[Niko]

This storm is something else. The keys of FL will get wiped out. Imagine the bridges that connect the keys together? If they get wiped, it will be a nightmare getting supplies down there.

Man, I'll tell ya, if I were right now in the Fl. Keys and had no way of evacuating by car, then, I would rent a boat and head due SW towards Cancun, Mexico and escape this monster.

[james1976]

This is only 10mph from tying that 190mph record. Omg

[Tom]

Thanks to the new GOES-16 satellite, these satellite/infared images are just beautiful to see. Just saying.

[St Paul Storm]

Man, I'll tell ya, if I were right now in the Fl. Keys and had no way of evacuating by car, then, I would rent a boat and head due SW towards Cancun, Mexico and escape this monster.

With so many people in the southern third (at least) of FL having to head north to escape, heading south is the way to go. Everyone heading north since both coasts are at extreme risk is going to cause chaos on the highways. People are going to have to start leaving in the next 48-72 hours to ensure they get out.

[jaster220]

It's interesting how the NHC has this weakening to a cat 4 as it enters even warmer waters. This thing is a complete catastrophic event in the making. What a friggin beast of a buzzsaw. Scheduled to attend a conference in Miami in November. The city might not even be there if this thing stays on course.

 

I am quite honestly at a loss of words. An already category 5, historic hurricane, is making its way through what seems to be bath water on a collision course with terrifying consequences. It is incredible to watch grow, but man have mercy on the souls in its path. Supposed to be attending a wedding in St. Pete in October.

 

This storm is something else. The keys of FL will get wiped out. Imagine the bridges that connect the keys together? If they get wiped, it will be a nightmare getting supplies down there.

 

Even if you've seen this, it's still worth seeing again with the possible if not likely hit to S Florida. In May 2005 I was in FL for my mother's passing and passed through Punta Gorda hit hardest by Charlie. I was amazed at all the noticeable damage 8 months later! And he was a compact storm vs Irma!

 

[Niko]

Even if you've seen this, it's still worth seeing again with the possible if not likely hit to S Florida. In May 2005 I was in FL for my mother's passing and passed through Punta Gorda hit hardest by Charlie. I was amazed at all the noticeable damage 8 months later! And he was a compact storm vs Irma!

 

Can you imagine pumping gas during that craziness

[Tom]

I'm hearing latest recon just found 185mph winds...Cat 6 on the table...LOL???  This storm isn't even in the warmest of waters in the Caribbean.  Mind boggling.  

 

[james1976]

I'm hearing latest recon just found 185mph winds...Cat 6 on the table??? This storm isn't even in the warmest of waters in the Caribbean. Mind boggling.

 

Is there such thing as a cat 6? Ive never heard of it. I always thought 5 was the highest no matter what.

[Minny_Weather]

Is there such thing as a cat 6? Ive never heard of it. I always thought 5 was the highest no matter what.

5 is the highest.

[Tom]

Is there such thing as a cat 6? Ive never heard of it. I always thought 5 was the highest no matter what.

Saw this from Ryan Maue:

 

 

 

Extrapolating Saffir-Simpson scale, 158-knots would be Category 6.

 

[james1976]

Even if you've seen this, it's still worth seeing again with the possible if not likely hit to S Florida. In May 2005 I was in FL for my mother's passing and passed through Punta Gorda hit hardest by Charlie. I was amazed at all the noticeable damage 8 months later! And he was a compact storm vs Irma!

 

Incredible. I could feel my anxiety rising just from watching this.

[Tom]

Is there such thing as a cat 6? Ive never heard of it. I always thought 5 was the highest no matter what.

If there was a category for Cat 6...

 

Here is a short article why it wouldn't be necessary for a Cat 6 category...

 

http://www.news965.com/news/local/why-hurricane-irma-will-never-category/2WHf5wY6Faf9W7EDzmmghO/

[Tom]

12z GEFS taking aim on MIA and eastern FL coast...

 

 

 

[james1976]

[Jaycee]

This is incredible. It's fascinating for weather fanatics but on a humanity level this is incredibly frightening. I hope Floridians don't try to "ride this one out", even if it changes path. This is essentially an EF3 tornado that lasts for hours for a widespread area. Think about that. An EF3 tornado just sitting on you, for hours on end. It's unreal. I wish I didn't see people playing this off down there (some of my friends who live in Fort Myers, claiming this Hurricane is nothing). Scary, scary times ahead I'm afraid.

[St Paul Storm]

Jaster thanks for posting the video. That's truly horrifying yet fascinating at the same time.

 

Hopefully the disaster that was Harvey will convince people in S FL to leave soon. People in Houston kept saying 'I'm not leaving as I want to protect my home.' That's completely illogical. Plus, if they think Harvey was bad they haven't seen anything yet. In 100+ hours people in FL are likely going to be wishing they were somewhere else.

 

Meanwhile it's 60 and cloudy here. Almost too chilly to wash my car on my day off.

[Niko]

185mph!

[james1976]

185mph!

And the pressure dropped from 931 to 926 since the last update.

TS Jose right on its heels too.

[Niko]

Catastrophic hit on Miami per the 12Z GFS. WOW!

[james1976]

What are the chances this stays Cat 5 all they way til FL? Is there anything to weaken it that much? Cat 4 is a long way behind right now!

[Niko]

And the pressure dropped from 931 to 926 since the last update.

TS Jose right on its heels too.

Yup....Jose wont be getting much attention yet, but I have a feeling he will be soon.

[jaster220]

Can you imagine pumping gas during that craziness

 

That guy may just have done that..."hurrry, let's tank-up during the calm of the eye, hurry, hurry! I see the backside wall coming!"  :wacko:

[jaster220]

..on any other day we see this and say "TYPO"...not today - #wild!

 

 

[james1976]

..on any other day we see this and say "TYPO"...not today - #wild!

 

20170905 Anguilla forecast for Irma.PNG

Thats wild!

[james1976]

Currently 65° with a strong N breeze and its turning mostly cloudy. A few leaves are flying thru the air.

[jaster220]

Saw this from Ryan Maue:

 

 

 

I heard peeps throwing around CAT-6, now I guess we know where they were getting it from. Like the Tornado scale, it's not official, but hypothetically we're there! Some dude made a Youtube vid days ago calling depicting Irma as a CAT-6 cane leveling entire communities, and he was totally ripped on for "over the top" dramatic attention gathering stunt!  Dude may have the last laugh on all his critics.

[jaster220]

This is incredible. It's fascinating for weather fanatics but on a humanity level this is incredibly frightening. I hope Floridians don't try to "ride this one out", even if it changes path. This is essentially an EF3 tornado that lasts for hours for a widespread area. Think about that. An EF3 tornado just sitting on you, for hours on end. It's unreal. I wish I didn't see people playing this off down there (some of my friends who live in Fort Myers, claiming this Hurricane is nothing). Scary, scary times ahead I'm afraid.

 

I believe the estimate for a MIA hit was somewhere in the 6-8hr duration range but don't quote me. Some models show Irma crawling as she makes the turn N near the tip of FL, before she regains some steam on that heading. Does it get worse??

[Niko]

That guy may just have done that..."hurrry, let's tank-up during the calm of the eye, hurry, hurry! I see the backside wall coming!"  :wacko:

[Niko]

..on any other day we see this and say "TYPO"...not today - #wild!

 

20170905 Anguilla forecast for Irma.PNG

Thats a scary forecast......

[james1976]

Frost Advisory out for W NE!

[Jaycee]

Just in case anybody would like an HD map (GFS, CMC) , you should try this out! Does a really good job with Hurricanes:

 

https://www.ventusky.com/?p=26.48;-79.16;6&l=gust&t=20170910/15

[Niko]

Just in case anybody would like an HD map, you should try this out! Does a really good job with Hurricanes:

 

https://www.ventusky.com/?p=26.48;-79.16;6&l=gust&t=20170910/15

Nice!

[St Paul Storm]

Just checked the 12z HWRF. That run shows Irma full speed ahead in the Gulf, bypassing FL?? Sure appears so at the end of the run, hr 126.

[james1976]

Just checked the 12z HWRF. That run shows Irma full speed ahead in the Gulf, bypassing FL?? Sure appears so at the end of the run, hr 126.

I think some models have it taking a sharp right turn by the keys