September 2017 Observations and Discussion

[jaster220]

It's almost beyond words how much that tick west means for Miami and Ft Lauderdale on the GFS. They escaped with their lives on Matthew. Let's hope their luck continues with Irma. 12z HWRF is west as well. Landfall around Ft Lauderdale and hugs the entire coast until it reaches the FL/GA line. Wow.

 

So much attention is being given to the south and east coast of FL. If the Euro pans out, Tampa/Clearwater is in trouble. Truly amazing how many people are under the gun.

 

Not to mention GA/SC border as a very possible 2nd LF at major status. As a wx fanatic I find this a TON of fun to track, follow, post on but tbh it feels a bit "surreal" knowing the potential dire consequences lurking if everything goes to worst case scenario- and all the luck of the past decade (b4 Harvey) runs completely out.  #UNREAL

 

 

 

 

 

Looks like Jose loses its steering component and circles around for a bit. These storms are crazy. I wonder what the upwelling of cooler waters Irma might have on Jose.

Hurricane Jose a Cat2 now. Hopefully, he is no threat to land, although, Bermuda needs to keep an eye on him.

 

Think again..

[jaster220]

It's one thing to hunker down for an EF-2 or even 3 tor to pass by in 10 or 15 mins, but we're talking ALL DAY possibly per that watch txt above

[Hawkeye]

The CR airport made it to 44 this morning.  Here in the city, upper 40s was common.

[St Paul Storm]

Not to mention GA/SC border as a very possible 2nd LF at major status. As a wx fanatic I find this a TON of fun to track, follow, post on but tbh it feels a bit "surreal" knowing the potential dire consequences lurking if everything goes to worst case scenario- and all the luck of the past decade (b4 Harvey) runs completely out. #UNREAL

 

20170907 Irma MIA watch winds.PNG

 

20170907 Irma SC potential post.PNG

 

 

 

 

Think again.. 20170907 Jose statement.png

Huh, that's interesting. Shows you how Mother Nature rules when one of the strongest storms in modern history can be followed by another monster with no apparent effect.

[jaster220]

Meanwhile, back at the ranch this radar grab shows what would have to be in winter a really widespread lake enhanced snow event. As is, along the shoreline, we've been hammered on and off all day by hvy rain and "squalls" some of which have been heavy. Looks like a possible "Superior connection" in progress

 

 

[jaster220]

@ Niko

 

Irma sees you..

 

 

[jaster220]

Cant imagen gusts like this, even wilder if we saw these with a winter storm.

 

 

 

And the swath..entire peninsula gets RAKED! 

 

 

[Minny_Weather]

LNK airport got to 45 this morning. High of 82. What a contrast.

[Tom]

Key West officials are very concerned about what I touched on earlier and that is if their bridges go down, they will be shut down for months.  I feel for those who are in the path of Irma.  She looks mean as ever and I got a feeling she will be a Cat 5 at landfall.  My belief is that the models are not initializing well, esp the Euro (oddly), which is not taking into account the strength of this beast and the fact the waters are so warm south of FL and through the Bahama's.  I doubt it will lose its strength much while going through the Turk's and Bahama's.

[Niko]

@ Niko

 

Irma sees you..

 

20170907 12zEuro hr96 pos of Irma.png

[Niko]

Received some big time downpours b4. No storms though. The air now is quite chilly and its breezy as well. Temps are drooping to near 50F and thru the 40s. This calls for a bonfire and wine for later tonight.

[Niko]

It's almost beyond words how much that tick west means for Miami and Ft Lauderdale on the GFS. They escaped with their lives on Matthew. Let's hope their luck continues with Irma. 12z HWRF is west as well. Landfall around Ft Lauderdale and hugs the entire coast until it reaches the FL/GA line. Wow.

 

So much attention is being given to the south and east coast of FL. If the Euro pans out, Tampa/Clearwater is in trouble. Truly amazing how many people are under the gun.

This goes to show you how big Irma's size is. Shes gigantic.

[Niko]

Looks like Jose loses its steering component and circles around for a bit. These storms are crazy. I wonder what the upwelling of cooler waters Irma might have on Jose.

My guess would be to weaken Jose because of that.

[St Paul Storm]

I-75 is jacked from right around Orlando to Atlanta, then jammed again to south of Chattanooga. That is one hell of a traffic jam. Let's hope people aren't sitting on the highway when this thing hits.

[Niko]

I-75 is jacked from right around Orlando to Atlanta, then jammed again to south of Chattanooga. That is one hell of a traffic jam. Let's hope people aren't sitting on the highway when this thing hits.

Bumber to bumber. Total craziness. Hopefully everybody evacuates safely from Irma.

[james1976]

At least that many people are evacuating and not being stubborn.

Irma is 'down' to 165mph now

[St Paul Storm]

Just checked the NAM for the first time in a while. The 0z run has Irma completely missing land until around NC/VA line.The NAM sucks at everything, not just winter storms.

[Niko]

Jose currently at 120 mph. Poses no US threat for now. Bermuda needs to pay attention to it. Latest models take it NE of Bermuda for now.

[james1976]

Local met showed the cone for Irma. Goes all the way up FL and then NW cuz of the H to the NE. He said we would see clouds here in IA from it. Thats pretty crazy if it makes it that far.

[Tom]

At least that many people are evacuating and not being stubborn.

Irma is 'down' to 165mph now

Surprised she's down to 155 mph, still though, that's gonna be rough.  

[Tom]

Pretty neat, due to a huge solar flare, the northern lights made it down south to as far as E IA between DBQ & Quad Cities...

 

 

 

 

 

Rochester, NY...

 

[james1976]

I just checked. Irma down to 150 now and cat 4.

[St Paul Storm]

I almost feel guilty for the awesome weekend we're going to have here. 75-80 and full sun. Compared to what Floridians are going to be dealing with. Cat 4 or 5....doesn't matter. It's going to be a disaster.

[St Paul Storm]

Looks like the eye wall replacement cycle took place and that may be why she lost a bit of power. But she may bump back up a bit as she heads toward even warmer water.

[james1976]

Yeah that watet south of FL is very warm. May get back to cat 5.

[St Paul Storm]

Tropical storm force winds predicted into Kentucky, roughly 1000 miles from Miami. That's insane.

[NEJeremy]

it looks like the models are doing a good job with wind speeds thankfully. Don't see this going back up to Category 5. Still an upper end 4 though. Also Cuba could have some affects on it as it's supposed to track a little closer to that island.

[St Paul Storm]

As I watch coverage of Irma, I started wondering what it must be like for people in FL knowing that a catastrophic disaster is about to happen. Many other natural events happen with little or no advance warning. So you don't have time to sit there and think 'wow, my whole life is likely going to change in a few hours.' It's great that people can preplan for a hurricane. But having that time to think about it has to really affect the psyche.

[Niko]

FL., its coming at ya, good luck to those people down there.

[Niko]

Currently, a chilly 51F with deep blue skies and a breeze blowing. Its jacket weather out there for sure, no question about it.

[jaster220]

#Irma quote of the day..

 

 

136mph over lake Okeechobee, ummm don't think because of a 30 mile jog with this storm you'll just be raking tree branches off your lawn.

[jaster220]

As I watch coverage of Irma, I started wondering what it must be like for people in FL knowing that a catastrophic disaster is about to happen. Many other natural events happen with little or no advance warning. So you don't have time to sit there and think 'wow, my whole life is likely going to change in a few hours.' It's great that people can preplan for a hurricane. But having that time to think about it has to really affect the psyche.

 

Glad I didn't see a video like that one I posted of Charlie before it hit. He was on a direct LF path for my elderly mother's place (and my aunt & uncle lived in the same mobile community) when it made that last minute jog right and spared them the bad stuff (Charlie was compact vs Irma). It can be very stressful for those with loved ones in the path too. All my relatives have passed on or moved away since, but I still remember the concerns. Picking up the pieces of your life after this will be hard enough for the young and able. I really didn't want that misery added onto what ended up being my Mom's final year of her life.

[Tom]

Still thinking Irma strengthens back to a Cat 5...GFS consistently showing sub 900mb storm as she approaches the Keys...

 

 

[VMB443]

I don't think this has been posted yet, but if you go mid-way down the article there is a very cool map where you can change the date/time to get a sense of Irma and where she'll be - looking at late Saturday night into Sunday morning looks as if Miami is going to take a pounding.

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4863996/Florida-Georgia-brace-arrival-Hurricane-Irma.html

[jaster220]

Still thinking Irma strengthens back to a Cat 5...GFS consistently showing sub 900mb storm as she approaches the Keys...

 

 

 

Was reading that every 'cane in the FL Straights has dropped at least 10 mb, some upwards of 20 mb's!  So yeah, something like these maps is not off the table. Been nice knowing ya S Florida - gonna be looking for a new winter destination for the next 20 yrs

[NEJeremy]

The 12Z GFS today initialized Irma at 949mb(way too high) and has been consistently forecasting way too low(laughably low). The lowest Irma has been was 914mb I believe so no way it gets sub 900 especially at 927mb it's at right now. At this point I think the GFS is only good for a possible track forecast. Either way(high 4 or low 5) this is going to be bad. Models are shifting back west which avoids an eye hit for Miami although strongest winds are usually in northeast quadrant so it's going to be really close.

[St Paul Storm]

The 12Z GFS today initialized Irma at 949mb(way too high) and has been consistently forecasting way too low(laughably low). The lowest Irma has been was 914mb I believe so no way it gets sub 900 especially at 927mb it's at right now. At this point I think the GFS is only good for a possible track forecast. Either way(high 4 or low 5) this is going to be bad. Models are shifting back west which avoids an eye hit for Miami although strongest winds are usually in northeast quadrant so it's going to be really close.

Yeah either way Miami is in a bad spot. They'll either take the brunt of the wind and miss some of the surge, or they'll get flooded and miss the worst winds. What a horrific outlook that is.

 

Looks like the 12z HWRF gets Irma back to cat 5 before landfall. Bath water = fuel

[Thunder98]

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1504880858

[St Paul Storm]

Lightning within Irma and surrounding areas. From the GOES16. Very cool.

 

https://video.twimg.com/ext_tw_video/906214825914753024/pu/pl/4wg_H7Ck6BzF5O1g.m3u8

[Tom]

12z Euro/EPS agreeing on a system later next weekend tracking a little farther south than what the GFS has been showing.  Might be a severe wx outbreak in the Plains followed by unseasonably cool weather.