September 2017 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

GEFS/EPS are showing what quite possibly may be one of our first classic Autumn storms coming out of the Rockies towards the Day 9-10 period.  This fits the East Asia/Bearing Rule theory as I'm expecting more autumn storms as such to start ramping up second half of the month.

 

 

 

[james1976]

GEFS/EPS are showing what quite possibly may be one of our first classic Autumn storms coming out of the Rockies towards the Day 9-10 period. This fits the East Asia/Bearing Rule theory as I'm expecting more autumn storms as such to start ramping up second half of the month.

 

 

 

Nice. I know the GFS op has been trying to show a system around the 15th and maybe something a few days later but thats way out in lala land.

[Minny_Weather]

CFSv2 and Euro weeklies continuing to show encouraging signs for October. Both have flipped cold and stayed that way over a couple of runs. Euro weeklies show a basically endless trough over our region during the beginning to middle of the month. All but one of the CFSv2 members show some period of cold in the month, with that one being the stick in the mud that shows a blowtorch. In addition, precip should be ramped up. If temperatures are on the cooler side, remember October is the start of the snow season for most of the region...

[Niko]

Cool, crisp, sunny morning outside. Temps are in the 40s.

[james1976]

Doesnt the new LRC pattern usually begin first week of October?

[Tom]

Will the first Freeze's of the season be hoisted tomorrow night for N WI???  Perfect situation for radiational cooling undearneath Canadian HP and DP's in the upper 20's.

 

 

[Tom]

CFSv2 and Euro weeklies continuing to show encouraging signs for October. Both have flipped cold and stayed that way over a couple of runs. Euro weeklies show a basically endless trough over our region during the beginning to middle of the month. All but one of the CFSv2 members show some period of cold in the month, with that one being the stick in the mud that shows a blowtorch. In addition, precip should be ramped up. If temperatures are on the cooler side, remember October is the start of the snow season for most of the region...

That's great to hear.  My hunch is, the cooler trends are the way to go, esp if blocking stays persistent throughout the Autumn coupled with a mod/strong negative QBO.  Early snows???  CFS has been consistent flashing snowy trends in the central CONUS for the month of November.

 

 

Doesnt the new LRC pattern usually begin first week of October?

In the higher latitudes, it actually starts a couple weeks earlier before it snaps into a new LRC in the mid latitudes during the 1st week of October.  The reason why it starts early up north is due to the quicker change of seasons and the strengthening of the "new" cyclical jet stream patterns.

[Tom]

They Eye of Irma inundated the island of Barbuda last night...what a monstrous storm on infared imagery...

 

 

 

[gabel23]

Doesnt the new LRC pattern usually begin first week of October?

Yep, right around that time.....if we can be stuck in a trough in the central part of the US for most of October, then the new LRC would be off to a great start! Back in the fall of 2009, that's exactly what happened and North Platte saw a record snowfall for the month, finishing with 30". We all know what happened in the winter of 09-10 for the rest of the midwest......

[Tom]

12z GFS somewhat agrees with the NAM brothers that N WI should see great conditions for radiational cooling Fri am...

 

 

 

Directly underneath Canadian HP...

 

[St Paul Storm]

Just when S FL started to think the eastward trends would continue, the 12z GFS came along. Going west again at hr 90. Looks like landfall near MIA at hr 96 or 102?

[Tom]

Just when S FL started to think the eastward trends would continue, the 12z GFS came along. Going west again at hr 90

Actually, it's going towards the worst case scenario which would directly hit MIA and skirt along the eastern coastline with tremendous amounts of storm surge.  The northeast quadrant is the worst part of this storm so that may stay off shore, but it will push all that water onto the coastline.  Ft. Lauderdale holds some of the largest and finest yachts in the world, I bet they are frantically moving all these boats/yachts inside the ports.  

 

Matthew repeat in full effect if this holds, but much worse!

 

 

 

 

[St Paul Storm]

Actually, it's going towards the worst case scenario which would directly hit MIA and skirt along the eastern coastline with tremendous amounts of storm surge.  The northeast quadrant is the worst part of this storm so that may stay off shore, but it will push all that water onto the coastline.  Ft. Lauderdale holds some of the largest and finest yachts in the world, I bet they are frantically moving all these boats/yachts inside the ports.  

 

Matthew repeat in full effect if this holds, but much worse!

 

 

 

 

Worst case scenario is absolutely right. Much of the coast would be destroyed either from wind, water or both.

[Tom]

If the 12z GFS track holds, they eye of the storm is literally tracking along the coast of FL and would basically be something that you can't think of ever happening if your a Floridian.  Think about all the mult-million dollar homes that have been built up along the coast???  I heard that the population of FL is far more than when Andrew hit and many Floridians are new comers to Hurricane hits.

[Tom]

Kuddos to the GFS if this track pans out, it was the first to sniff it out...

[St Paul Storm]

It moves up the coast and is still a 919mb around Jacksonville feeding off that bath water the whole ride. The eye stays just offshore most of the way keeping that thing fueled. Just wow.

[james1976]

[Minny_Weather]

I've been telling everyone that this storm will not be a huge inland flooding threat. People see the recent Harvey and think "all hurricanes bring devastating flooding inland!" When in a lot of cases that is not true. Unless you are unlucky enough to get the remnants later on. Katrina brought awful flooding because the levees failed, and Harvey brought awful flooding because it was a 1 in every 5 trillion year rain event due to it stalling. I think Irma will be a major surge flooding event, so everybody living on the Atlantic coasts from Southern Florida up to the Carolinas NEEDS to evacuate from this. If you live near a tributary to the Atlantic, such as a bay, EVACUATE. Don't think twice. Inland, wind will be the biggest threat, and trust me, as someone who has lived thru 2 major hurricanes, it is a threat.

[St Paul Storm]

Video from St Maarten. Wowzers.

 

http://www.mahobeachcam.com/

[Minny_Weather]

Is that 892 by Miami? Last i saw this morning it was still 916. Oh my....

I found it weird that models were downgrading it to Cat 4 when it was still in ripe waters with no shear.

[VMB443]

Video from St Maarten. Wowzers.

 

http://www.mahobeachcam.com/

Wow. That is about all I can say, I can't even imagine being anywhere near that - the sound of the wind alone could drive someone to insanity.

[james1976]

Video from St Maarten. Wowzers.

 

http://www.mahobeachcam.com/

Incredible. Just relentless!

How closevto the eyewall is that?

[jaster220]

Just when S FL started to think the eastward trends would continue, the 12z GFS came along. Going west again at hr 90. Looks like landfall near MIA at hr 96 or 102?

 

Irma gonna slap MIA good it would appear - ouch!

 

Doesnt the new LRC pattern usually begin first week of October?

 

"It's 5 O'clock somewhere" (aka, what Tom said, way up in the Arctic regions, the LRC should be going already but ofc there's the lag time til it gets down to the mid lat's)

 

Actually, it's going towards the worst case scenario which would directly hit MIA and skirt along the eastern coastline with tremendous amounts of storm surge.  The northeast quadrant is the worst part of this storm so that may stay off shore, but it will push all that water onto the coastline.  Ft. Lauderdale holds some of the largest and finest yachts in the world, I bet they are frantically moving all these boats/yachts inside the ports.  

 

Matthew repeat in full effect if this holds, but much worse!

 

 

 

 

 

They really needed to have a map with the wind speed bar at the right adjusted for Tropical Cyclones, so many wind lines are "off the chart"

[jaster220]

One of my fave shots of Irma - she's a majestic meteorological beaut! (when she's not tangled with)

 

 

 

 

[gabel23]

This is probably the most impressive looking eye wall I have ever seen on radar, WOW! 

[Niko]

Video from St Maarten. Wowzers.

 

http://www.mahobeachcam.com/

D**n..listen to that wind howling.

[Niko]

One of my fave shots of Irma - she's a majestic meteorological beaut! (when she's not tangled with)

 

20170906 space image of Irma.PNG

Nice!

[Iowawx]

GFS tries to get Irma as a remnant low all the way up to Illinois next week, with rain across the Midwest. That would be quite something.

[St Paul Storm]

12z Euro with double landfall south of Miami and then again near Savannah. Coastline from Miami to the GA/SC line destroyed. You can't make this stuff up.

[Tom]

GFS tries to get Irma as a remnant low all the way up to Illinois next week, with rain across the Midwest. That would be quite something.

12z Euro showing something similar but the difference between the two models is the Euro may be going to my idea of an amplifying/phasing trough for the eastern GL's as the NAO tanks.

[Tom]

This photo just sums it up what some on here have been saying all along...it looks like an EF 3 or 4 Tornado ripped through the area....

 

[Minny_Weather]

Both the Euro and GFS are starting to show something that we haven't seen here for a while.........

 

THUNDERSTORMS! In a couple of weekends, that is.

[Niko]

A hurricane is something people should always take seriously.

[NEJeremy]

I'm reading on Twitter that the PM of Barbuda just arrived by heli and said, "It is totally destroyed. 90% at least."

At least 1000 people may have died but phone line was breaking up.

 

Early reports from St. Maarten are not good. All services down. Cell working only intermittently. There is no doubt there is massive loss of life here.

[Niko]

Currently 63F with mostly cloudy skies and a cool breeze.

[Tom]

These back to back cool & cloudy days are definitely putting me more and more into Autumn mode!

[jaster220]

Tbh, I don't think I recall ever seeing a hurricane this strong ever in the Atlantic. Just amazing!

 

There's a reason for that..

 

 

[Niko]

There's a reason for that..

 

20170906 Irma with a 7.5T.PNG

Exactly. You typically see them out in the Western Pacific.

[jaster220]

GFS tries to get Irma as a remnant low all the way up to Illinois next week, with rain across the Midwest. That would be quite something.

 

12z Euro showing something similar but the difference between the two models is the Euro may be going to my idea of an amplifying/phasing trough for the eastern GL's as the NAO tanks.

 

Here's the Euro:

 

 

 

My red line / arrow is the ideal track for Marshall, but just like what the Euro is showing for Irma's remnants, it's displaced a bit SE. I could see this being the primary track for the winter. Hoping my gut is wrong, but go with your gut even when it hurts..

[Niko]

Here's the Euro:

 

20170906 12zEuro track of Irma.PNG

 

My red line / arrow is the ideal track for Marshall, but just like what the Euro is showing for Irma's remnants, it's displaced a bit SE. I could see this being the primary track for the winter. Hoping my gut is wrong, but go with your gut even when it hurts..

I think that red line would benefit me during Winterstorms! 

 

Ofc, I want Jaster to get some snows as well.