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2018 California/Southwest Weather Thread


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In the discussion of one of the NWS offices they mentioned how difficult it is to forecast accurate rainfall from the remnants of hurricanes/ typhoons and GOA systems this time of the year. There is rainfall being reported in the Bay Area/ North coast.

 

L: 71 [first minimum in the 70's since August] 

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Not too bad. 0.38" for Fullerton Airport and 0.35" for Foothill Ranch after last night's deluge.

 

I only got a trace here in Orange, which is less than 10 miles from the Fullerton Airport. That just shows the scattered nature of the showers, but I am really getting tired of getting shafted at my location!

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Another trough is deepening but appears to be an inside slider type setup so rainfall prospects look iffy this weekend.

 

78/ 63

 

If the flow is NW for this system, my area here in Orange will probably get next to nothing, unless the flow turns out to be a bit more westerly or southwesterly for a time. Hell, I can't seem to get any good rain from a SW flow, either, which used to be almost a slam dunk for the area.

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If the flow is NW for this system, my area here in Orange will probably get next to nothing, unless the flow turns out to be a bit more westerly or southwesterly for a time. Hell, I can't seem to get any good rain from a SW flow, either, which used to be almost a slam dunk for the area.

 

I seems like Orange county gets more rain than Los Angeles especially with the rain shadow effect of Tehachapi mts.  The mountains can really interfere with rain totals like around Burbank/ Tujunga, for example. With the current ULL over Nevada the chance for showers may be minimal but I am glad that we are in a more active pattern so early in autumn.

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NWS_LA

"However, the
latest updated model runs 18z and 00z continue to show the GFS
model runs leaning towards having a closed low develop off the
coast of Southern California and pulling in some wrap-around
moisture associated with Sergio in the Friday-Saturday time
period. This type of pattern would potentially bring a threat of
rain showers to our area, especially Los Angeles county and the
adjacent coastal waters. A fair number of GFS ensemble model runs
also bring measurable rain to these areas, so cannot totally rule
out this scenario". 

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6 consecutive day in the 70's [75-78] starting the first below 80F maximum since June 23rd. The 24 yr average October max: 80.6 so temps are cooler than normal. Still haven't recorded a minimum below 60F since 6/19 [normal monthly low: 61.8] but getting very close since both yesterday and today minimum were 60F. Warmer nights in the Basin probably due to fairly warm SST [santa Monica bay: 69F/ San Pedro harbor: 70F]; still a bit above average for October. No rainfall since May 31st beside a trace on 7/19.

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