March Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

If you include fall, then yes, it's been a semi-wet cold season (not close to the past couple).

 

But more recently, two of the past three months have been drier than normal. For both SEA and Seattle WFO.

 

Of course you can still enjoy the dry, warm spring weather, Tim! Just pointing out that things have actually been drier lately, even for Seattle.

 

Thanks for the update Jared.  

 

All is good here.   We have no water worries.   January was very wet and February was very wet for everyone to the north and east of the Seattle rain shadow.   And our mountains are doing great.   

 

And it will likely rain plenty later this month, and in April, and in May, and probably in June.   

 

I am sure you would really have to search hard to find people who would not be happy about a nice spring weekend around here.    But on here its heresy.   So I should pretend to be very concerned about drought and pray for rain every day so I don't upset anyone.    

[bainbridgekid]

12z GFS spits out a high of 65 Sunday and 70 next Monday for SEA.

 

I'm not going to pull a Tim and beleaguer the point, but that does sound pretty d*mn nice.

[bainbridgekid]

Thanks for the update Jared.  

 

All is good here.   We have no water worries.   January was very wet and February was very wet for everyone to the north and east of the Seattle rain shadow.   And our mountains are doing great.   

 

And it will likely rain plenty later this month, and in April, and in May, and probably in June.   

 

I am sure you would really have to search hard to find people who would not be happy about a nice spring weekend around here.    But on here its heresy.   So I should pretend to be very concerned about drought and pray for rain every day so I don't upset anyone.    

No one has mentioned drought other than you.

 

Some people just struggle more with letting go of Winter than others. It is hard to say goodbye to snow chances.

[TT-SEA]

12z GFS spits out a high of 65 Sunday and 70 next Monday for SEA.

 

I'm not going to pull a Tim and beleaguer the point, but that does sound pretty d*mn nice.

 

I have responded to 20 posts from those 3 people about why a couple nice days in March is not tragic.  

 

I am sure there will be long stretches of rain and cold weather this spring.   I will enjoy any break nature throws our way.  

[TT-SEA]

No one has mentioned drought other than you.

 

Some people just struggle more with letting go of Winter than others. It is hard to say goodbye to snow chances.

 

Central and southern Oregon do have a valid reason to be concerned about drought.   

 

But I can't worried about everywhere else.    Most of us just care about our own area.  

[Jesse]

Gonna be a long spring.

[TT-SEA]

Gonna be a long spring.

 

3 months... just like every other year.  

[Phil]

So what?

 

Nobody in the Seattle area is worried about the lack of rain or mountain snow right now. All is good.

If you’re this jittery already, I can’t imagine how you’re going to handle the next stretch of cool/wet summers.

 

- These last five years that you’re decrying were both the ridgiest (over your region) and the most +PNA/+NAO in recorded history, based on the NOAA/ESRL reanalyses.

 

- NW North America put up the largest positive departures of anywhere on the planet, except the Arctic, from 2014 through 2017.

 

- The stretch from 2014 to February 2018 featured what was easily the most sustained +PDO/+SIOD/NE-shifted warm pool anomaly in recorded history.

 

- This occurred in tandem with the solar wind maximum, a super niño, and a double +QBO that phase locked the BDC/O^3 fields in such a manner that probably hasn’t occurred in centuries.

 

We’re finally leaving this system state behind. It’s debatable what the new regime will actually be (so far it best resembles the 1945-1955 period, or perhaps something older), but I think treating the last several years as a wet/troughy period in the PNW is intellectually dishonest.

[TT-SEA]

If you’re this jittery already, I can’t imagine how you’re going to handle the next stretch of cool/wet summers.

 

- These last five years that you’re decrying were both the ridgiest (over your region) and the most +PNA/+NAO in recorded history, based on the NOAA/ESRL reanalyses.

 

- NW North America put up the largest positive departures of anywhere on the planet, except the Arctic, from 2014 through 2017.

 

- The stretch from 2014 to February 2018 featured what was easily the most sustained +PDO/+SIOD/NE-shifted warm pool anomaly in recorded history.

 

- This occurred in tandem with the solar wind maximum, a super niño, and a double +QBO that phase locked the BDC/O^3 fields in such a manner that probably hasn’t occurred in centuries.

 

We’re finally leaving this system state behind. It’s debatable what the new regime will actually be (so far it best resembles the 1945-1955 period, or perhaps something older), but I think treating the last several years as a wet/troughy period in the PNW is intellectually dishonest.

 

 

Oh yes... so jittery.   

 

I expect a generally cool and wet spring.   Similar to 2008 and 2011.     That seems most logical right now.    And you will say every summer is going to be cool and wet here.    You have been doing it for a few years already.    Also... the 1945-1955 period did feature some spectacular summers here.   1951 is one of my favorite spring and summer seasons in the historical record going back to 1895.    And I would love to go back to the climate of the early 20th century.   

 

2014-2017 was the wettest 4-year period in Seattle history.   So you can call it whatever you want... but that actually happened.    Its generally been a wet 4-year period west of the Cascades and from Portland northward.    Maybe related to the warm pattern across the West?

[Phil]

Oh yes... so jittery.

 

I expect a generally cool and wet spring. Similar to 2008 and 2011. That seems most logical right now. And you will say every summer is going to be cool and wet here. You have been doing it for a few years already.

Ha, keep telling yourself that. The skipped QBO cycle really messed with the WPAC convection in 2017, but 2016 did have a brief period of easterlies @ 50mb, and it lead to a generally troughy summer despite the super niño hangover.

 

We have the strongest easterlies/-QBO on record now, and this will reach maturity @ 50mb right around the summer solstice (talk about off-climo timing..yikes). The end result is debatable this time, but it’s going to be a fascinating evolution regardless.

 

FWIW, I forecasted both 2014 and 2015 to torch, so that kind of undercuts your claim that I always forecast cool summers.

 

2014-2017 was the wettest 4-year period in Seattle history. So you can call it whatever you want... but that actually happened. Its generally been a wet 4-year period west of the Cascades and from Portland northward. Maybe related to the warm pattern?

Yeah, that’s what you get with an extended and poleward shifted Pacific Jet (+PNA/+NAO). Northern zones get hammered with rain during the cold season, but since the jet is shifted poleward already, it evacuates your region completely during the warm season, leaving you warm and dry while that fatass vortex sits over the Baffin Bay all summer long.

 

Right now we have the opposite..a retracted jet/RNA style pattern with a suppressed/retracted Pacific Jet and upstream anticyclones. That’s more reminiscent of the older years and the brief excursion from 2008-2012.

[Front Ranger]

Thanks for the update Jared.  

 

All is good here.   We have no water worries.   January was very wet and February was very wet for everyone to the north and east of the Seattle rain shadow.   And our mountains are doing great.   

 

And it will likely rain plenty later this month, and in April, and in May, and probably in June.   

 

I am sure you would really have to search hard to find people who would not be happy about a nice spring weekend around here.    But on here its heresy.   So I should pretend to be very concerned about drought and pray for rain every day so I don't upset anyone.    

 

Overreaction Tuesday. 

 

No need to take such affront to someone pointing out that it really hasn't been that wet recently most places, including Seattle - when you just said "we could use a break from the wet".

 

It just sounds like you're making the same old Tim argument ("it's been SO WET around here"), when in fact things have changed.

[TT-SEA]

Generally speaking... I look with envy on the warm season daily historical record for this area from 1895-1951.

 

For example... the summers in the 1920s were absolutely beautiful for the most part.

[TT-SEA]

Overreaction Tuesday.

 

No need to take such affront to someone pointing out that it really hasn't been that wet recently most places, including Seattle - when you just said "we could use a break from the wet".

 

It just sounds like you're making the same old Tim argument ("it's been SO WET around here"), when in fact things have changed.

The last couple weeks? Great. Its been cold.

 

It rained for almost 2 weeks straight in some areas (including mine) before that.

 

SEA missed out on that fun but most of us outside a small rain shadow did not. And then you have January which featured rain almost every day.

 

But it always feels like its rained for months by March. Not going to have any guilt enjoying a couple warm and sunny days.

[Front Ranger]

I never said you should feel guilty. Pointing out that it's been drier than normal two of the past three months in Seattle does not infer that.

[Phil]

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/hattard/realtime/u_65N_10hpa.png

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/hattard/realtime/u_65N_10hpa_gefs.png

[BLI snowman]

Generally speaking... I look with envy on the warm season daily historical record for this area from 1895-1951.

 

For example... the summers in the 1920s were absolutely beautiful for the most part.

 

Sounds a lot like the recent summers here.

[TT-SEA]

1989 was a very nice spring and summer here overall.

 

I do like the sound of "final warming". Even it does not mean that locally.

[TT-SEA]

Wait, I'm confused... were the last 4 years in Seattle relatively wet or relatively dry?  I wish someone would step up and say conclusively what they think.  It's so hard to tell.

 

I know... right?

 

Wettest 4-year period in Seattle history... but Jared wants to remind us that it did not rain every day in that period. 

[TT-SEA]

Up to 48 at SEA at 11 a.m.

 

I think 53 is within the realm of possibility today to break the streak.  

[Phil]

Interesting, but I'm not sure I like the sound of a 1989 analog. Early April 1989 brought a crazy heat wave to the Southwest with Downtown L.A. reaching 106º on the 6th. Next earliest occurrence of 106º not until late June.

Well, again, there are additional/peripheral reasons to be weary of 1989 as a pattern analog. Solar was off the rails and the QBO was out of sync. The closest QBO match is actually 2001, but it was a solar maximum year with no big Feb SSW or early final warming. There is also 1984 for a QBO analog, but it was a big volcanic year coming off the strongest solar conditions in 25 years. It also was in the midst of a deep -AMO/cold IO response to said volcanism that stunted the Niña forcing potential. Looking farther back, 1968 was another QBO match, but solar problems arise again. Technically, 2016 did have the early final warming, but everything else about that year is wrong.

 

Looking at this wave..it’s in no hurry to downwell. Probably won’t do so until summer, either. That will actually help prevent a niño, but it will also prolong the transition of the system state. Though that also gives the lowest frequency forcing modes more time to entrench. So, it’s a long term benefit if you enjoy cold anomalies in the west.

 

[stuffradio]

This is exhibit A of why someone like VIS and I have differing opinions of the last month, though Vancouver Island as a whole is normal or above for the winter in precipitation with the exception of a small part.

 

 

[Front Ranger]

I know... right?

 

Wettest 4-year period in Seattle history... but Jared wants to remind us that it did not rain every day in that period.

I'm not the only one who has pointed out the unusually sharp contrast between wet/dry seasons recently.

[Jesse]

12z Euro was a little more agressive with the return to troughing next week than the 00z.

 

Tuesday almost looks like a convective pattern with SE flow aloft.

[Front Ranger]

Sounds a lot like the recent summers here.

Tim would prefer the focus remain the wet cool seasons recently.

 

Not sure if you've heard, but 2014-17 was VERY wet. End of story.

[TT-SEA]

I'm not the only one who has pointed out the unusually sharp contrast between wet/dry seasons recently.

Are summers drier than winter here? Had not noticed.

[BLI snowman]

Tim would prefer the focus remain the wet cool seasons recently.

 

Not sure if you've heard, but 2014-17 was VERY wet. End of story.

 

His praise for the early 20th century is intriguing. He would likely have gouged his eyes out with a fork if faced with a repeat of the summer of 1916 or 1921. Extended burn-off days are some of the worst things in the universe.

[Jesse]

His praise for the early 20th century is intriguing. He would likely have gouged his eyes out with a fork if faced with a repeat of the summer of 1916 or 1921. Extended burn-off days are some of the worst things in the universe.

I think a lot of his praise is based solely on temperatures and precip. Not sure how well his “local history” source represents sky cover. Marine layers kill!

[TT-SEA]

His praise for the early 20th century is intriguing. He would likely have gouged his eyes out with a fork if faced with a repeat of the summer of 1916 or 1921. Extended burn-off days are some of the worst things in the universe.

 

 

I doubt it.   Here are some excerpts locally from 1916... which was not one of the really good summers in the early 20th century.     Certainly was not wall-to-wall rainy and cold.   And solid marine layer days rarely get up to the mid and upper 70s and low 80s here.    There were plenty of nice days.  

 

 

 

[Front Ranger]

I'm not the only one who has pointed out the unusually sharp contrast between wet/dry seasons recently.

 

 

Are summers drier than winter here? Had not noticed.

 

It's not normal to go from 11.5" in Feb/Mar to 2.1" in Apr/May. Happened in 2016.

 

Or have .9" May-July, and then 24.4" Oct-Dec the same year. Happened in 2015.

 

Or 20.4" Feb-Apr, and then .61" Jul-Sep. Happened in 2017.

 

Normal pattern trends, but exaggerated...very exaggerated in some cases.

[Front Ranger]

That's a lot of rows on a spreadsheet.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

So..it looks like one of the strongest SSW events in recorded history will actually be followed by one of the earliest “final warming” events on record.

 

It’s hard to emphasize how significant this is. Even though we have this weak/brief return to westerlies in between the two events, physically speaking this is almost as if the final warming has already occurred.

 

I can’t find anything like this in a -QBO year, let alone with an approaching solar minimum. Something similar happened in 1988/89 with the Feb SSW/weak PV thereafter, but that was a +QBO/solar max year, and obviously the +QBO SSW events usually don’t force large scale regime changes in the tropics.

 

Does this mean it will snow next winter.

[BLI snowman]

 

I doubt it.   Here are some excerpts locally from 1916... which was not one of the really good summers in the early 20th century.     Certainly was not wall-to-wall rainy and cold.   And solid marine layer days rarely get up to the mid and upper 70s and low 80s here.    There were plenty of nice days.  

 

 

 

 

 

20/31 days in July 1916 were cloudy or partly cloudy in Seattle. I recall similar ratios in the infamous summer of 2010.

[TT-SEA]

Here are some excerpts from the terrible summer of 1921.     I don't think 40s at night and upper 70s and low 80s by day is a marine layer pattern here.  

 

And these are the bad years?  

 

It was a great time for PNW summers and winters.  

 

 

[Deweydog]

That's a lot of rows on a spreadsheet.

Spreadsheets kill!

[BLI snowman]

I think a lot of his praise is based solely on temperatures and precip. Not sure how well his “local history” source represents sky cover. Marine layers kill!

 

I have also read of scores of Victorian era boaters who were savagely brutalized by late afternoon gradient reversals,  with only their top hats to cling to before they succumbed to the moderating ocean breezes.

[Deweydog]

Does this mean it will snow next winter.

Bump!

 

I too am curious as to whether it will snow next winter.

[TT-SEA]

That's a lot of rows on a spreadsheet.

 

 

My master spreadsheet created in 2011 has over 41,000 color-coded rows going back to 1895. 

 

Took about 30 minutes... dump data down from Utah site in .csv format and then do some formulas to color code and copy down.   All set! 

[Front Ranger]

I have also read of scores of Victorian era boaters who were savagely brutalized by late afternoon gradient reversals,  with only their top hats to cling to before they succumbed to the moderating ocean breezes.

 

[BLI snowman]

Here are some excerpts from the terrible summer of 1921.     I don't think 40s at night and upper 70s and low 80s by day is a marine layer pattern here.  

 

And these are the bad years?  

 

It was a great time for PNW summers and winters.  

 

 

 

 

 

The point is that there are no "bad" summers here. They're all virtually the same. Dry and pleasant. You've complained mightily about years like 2010 or 1993 that quite simply are still dry and pleasant overall. We had plenty of cooler warm seasons in the early 20th century. Still quite dry and pleasant.

[Front Ranger]

My master spreadsheet created in 2011 has over 41,000 color-coded rows going back to 1895. 

 

Took about 30 minutes... dump data down from Utah site in .csv format and then do some formulas to color code and copy down.   All set! 

 

Resume material!