March Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Front Ranger]

SEA's 52 or colder streak now stands at 25 days

[wx_statman]

Eugene put up a 55/26 today. That’s some March weather I can sink my teeth into.

 

Instead, you got served 51/40. Call the waiter back. 

[wx_statman]

Yep. And if it happens, it will be the latest 16-day streak of sub 52's in half a century.

 

1951, 1955, 1956, and 1960 (#coldphase) all had streaks longer than 16 days later into the spring. Not once since.

 

Verified.

[TT-SEA]

SEA's 52 or colder streak now stands at 25 days

 

Looks like it probably ends by Wednesday.

[Deweydog]

August 2008 was definitely it's own animal. What made July 1996 particularly memorable though was the swing from hot to cold and back to hot. Crazy progression. I'm sure if someone was to graph the high temps for every July in PDX history, 1996 would stand out among the spaghetti mess.

That was a good month.

[Jesse]

Instead, you got served 51/40. Call the waiter back.

I’ll take it! Now the longest sub-52 streak for this late in history @ PDX.

 

I’m feeling a midnight low with clearing skies too.

[TT-SEA]

Sun setting below the cloud deck and reflecting off Mt. Si right now...

 

[wx_statman]

I’ll take it! Now the longest sub-52 streak for this late in history @ PDX.

 

I’m feeling a midnight low with clearing skies too.

 

Since 1960 anyway.

[Jesse]

Since 1960 anyway.

Oops. I must have misread something along the way then. Still that is impressive.

[wx_statman]

Oops. I must have misread something along the way then. Still that is impressive.

 

No worries. Here's the actual list of sub-52 streaks this late in the year, for anyone wondering:

 

PDX -

 

51 days ending 3-13-1956

21 days ending 3-6-1960

21 days ending 3-6-1955

17 days ending 3-12-1951

16 days through 3-5-2018

 

SEA (whole different world up there) -

 

110 days ending 3-25-1955

63 days ending 3-7-1989

62 days ending 3-14-1956

41 days ending 3-16-1960

37 days ending 3-9-2003

[SilverFallsAndrew]

No worries. Here's the actual list of sub-52 streaks this late in the year, for anyone wondering:

 

PDX -

 

51 days ending 3-13-1956

21 days ending 3-6-1960

21 days ending 3-6-1955

17 days ending 3-12-1951

16 days through 3-5-2018

 

 

 

SEA (whole different world up there) -

 

110 days ending 3-25-1955

63 days ending 3-7-1989

62 days ending 3-14-1956

41 days ending 3-16-1960

37 days ending 3-9-2003

56’ really stands out for PDX

[Jesse]

No worries. Here's the actual list of sub-52 streaks this late in the year, for anyone wondering:

 

PDX -

 

51 days ending 3-13-1956

21 days ending 3-6-1960

21 days ending 3-6-1955

17 days ending 3-12-1951

16 days through 3-5-2018

 

SEA (whole different world up there) -

 

110 days ending 3-25-1955

63 days ending 3-7-1989

62 days ending 3-14-1956

41 days ending 3-16-1960

37 days ending 3-9-2003

Great info. The difference between SEA and PDX can be pretty stark during the shoulder seasons especially.

[wx_statman]

56’ really stands out for PDX

 

Yeah. Never topped 50 that February. Probably one of our more unbreakable benchmarks. 

[wx_statman]

Great info. The difference between SEA and PDX can be pretty stark during the shoulder seasons especially.

 

Indeed. I was surprised when I looked at the numbers. I was expecting the current 25 day streak up there to rank a little higher. 

[Jesse]

I was thinking. If it weren't for that rogue 55 on 2/17 (I think most forecasts for that day were 51-52) we would be sitting at a 25 day stretch, starting with the 51/39 day on 2/9. Second only to 1956 in duration.

 

Of course there are probably plenty of other streaks that got cut short by one "warm" day.

[wx_statman]

I was thinking. If it weren't for that rogue 55 on 2/17 (I think most forecasts for that day were 51-52) we would be sitting at a 25 day stretch, starting with the 51/39 day on 2/9. Second only to 1956 in duration.

 

Of course there are probably plenty of other streaks that got cut short by one "warm" day.

 

It's funny, the 1956 stretch was also ruined at PDX by a rogue 51 on March 2nd. Ruined what would have been an incredible streak of 28 straight sub-49 maximums lasting from mid February to mid March. As it stands, we still set the late-season record with the 18 day run ending on March 1st. 

[snow_wizard]

50% of the the top analogs to the 12z GFS were from the 1950s.  Pretty intriguing to say the least.

[TT-SEA]

Weekend is looking spectacular on the 00Z GFS (and the 00Z GEM agrees)

 

Here is Sunday...

 

[snow_wizard]

It's kind of interesting...A while back I ran the composite 500mb maps for Arctic fronts that bring significant snow for Seattle and the ones that don't.  The blast late last month had elements of both so it could have gone either way.  The biggest deal seems to be what longitude the positive anomaly center ends up over the GOA / Aleutians.  The mean on the low snow Arctic fronts has the positive center at about 147W while the snowy Arctic fronts  have the center at about 158W.  The recent event had the center at 152W.  Another issue with the recent event is we had to wait for cold air to advect into the interior of BC before it could advect into WA.  The events that really work out well for this area seem be when cold air is already in place over BC and it can make a much quicker blast into WA.

 

One thing I can say with certainty is a good scenario for Seattle will happen again.  Probably within the next couple of blasts.

[TT-SEA]

It's kind of interesting...A while back I ran the composite 500mb maps for Arctic fronts that bring significant snow for Seattle and the ones that don't.  The blast late last month had elements of both so it could have gone either way.  The biggest deal seems to be what longitude the positive anomaly center ends up over the GOA / Aleutians.  The mean on the low snow Arctic fronts has the positive center at about 147W while the snowy Arctic fronts  have the center at about 158W.  The recent event had the center at 152W.  Another issue with the recent event is we had to wait for cold air to advect into the interior of BC before it could advect into WA.  The events that really work out well for this area seem be when cold air is already in place over BC and it can make a much quicker blast into WA.

 

One thing I can say with certainty is a good scenario for Seattle will happen again.  Probably within the next couple of blasts.

 

Of course it evens out over time.    Do you think nature has selected just the Seattle area to never see snow again even though places all around get snow?

 

Its fun when it happens but its always fleeting.   If one location gets snow and another does not... they will be equal again with a bare ground very soon either way.   

[Front Ranger]

Weekend is looking spectacular on the 00Z GFS (and the 00Z GEM agrees)

 

Here is Sunday...

 

 

Spectacularness. Measured in temp anomalies.

[TT-SEA]

Spectacularness. Measured in temp anomalies.

 

It will be pretty sweet to have a warm, sunny weekend day.    And we turn the clocks forward so the daylight lasts longer.   

 

We had a cool, sunny day on Saturday... but half our yard was still covered in snow.   That should not be a problem on Sunday.  

[Frontal Snowsquall]

It's kind of interesting...A while back I ran the composite 500mb maps for Arctic fronts that bring significant snow for Seattle and the ones that don't. The blast late last month had elements of both so it could have gone either way. The biggest deal seems to be what longitude the positive anomaly center ends up over the GOA / Aleutians. The mean on the low snow Arctic fronts has the positive center at about 147W while the snowy Arctic fronts have the center at about 158W. The recent event had the center at 152W. Another issue with the recent event is we had to wait for cold air to advect into the interior of BC before it could advect into WA. The events that really work out well for this area seem be when cold air is already in place over BC and it can make a much quicker blast into WA.

 

One thing I can say with certainty is a good scenario for Seattle will happen again. Probably within the next couple of blasts.

That's an interesting take on it. How about for PDX. What made this Arctic front good down here for PDX Metro, particularly on the east side? This was the juiciest Arctic front I've ever experienced. It would be good to know what to look for next time.

[Jesse]

That's an interesting take on it. How about for PDX. What made this Arctic front good down here for PDX Metro, particularly on the east side? This was the juiciest Arctic front I've ever experienced. It would be good to know what to look for next time.

 

Calling that an arctic front is a bit of a stretch. And if that is then what about last January?

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Calling that an arctic front is a bit of a stretch. And if that is then what about last January?

It was an Arctic front plain and simple. Arctic air or to get more specific modified Arctic air spilled in behind it and I got 2 more snow events before it left. For late February that is impressive. A total of 3 separate snow events.

[BLI snowman]

Mid range trending warmer. Hot spring and wet summer incoming.

[TT-SEA]

Mid range trending warmer. Hot spring and wet summer incoming.

 

GFS shows a deep western trough for almost the entire run.  

[wx_statman]

Lillard never ceases to amaze me. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Mid range trending warmer. Hot spring and wet summer incoming.

You mean hot and dry spring and summer incoming.

[Jesse]

It was an Arctic front plain and simple. Arctic air or to get more specific modified Arctic air spilled in behind it and I got 2 more snow events before it left. For late February that is impressive. A total of 3 separate snow events.

Good points.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Lillard never ceases to amaze me.

He's on fire!

[Jesse]

He's on fire!

Just like PDX. Already down to 36.

[snow_wizard]

Looks like the roller coaster might be about to begin.  Those are generally my favorite springs.  The trough to ridge to trough transitions make for dynamic weather and a lot of frosty night.

[snow_wizard]

It was an Arctic front plain and simple. Arctic air or to get more specific modified Arctic air spilled in behind it and I got 2 more snow events before it left. For late February that is impressive. A total of 3 separate snow events.

 

I'm going to do a thread on this a bit down the road.  In general Portland seems to do better with the blocking a bit loser to the coast while Seattle wants it further out.  Months like January 1950 are just so epic it doesn't really matter, although the blocking probably varies during months like that.

[Deweydog]

The Blazers' recent run is undeniably the result of the SSW.

[Deweydog]

I'm going to do a thread on this a bit down the road. In general Portland seems to do better with the blocking a bit loser to the coast while Seattle wants it further out. Months like January 1950 are just so epic it doesn't really matter, although the blocking probably varies during months like that.

Seattle seems to do better when cold air and moisture meet in that general vicinity. Portland tends to do better when said entities congregate in our neck of the woods.

[Jesse]

Seattle seems to do better when cold air and moisture meet in that general vicinity. Portland tends to do better when said entities congregate in our neck of the woods.

I’m sure you can see them both coming miles away from up there.

[Deweydog]

I’m sure you can see them both coming miles away from up there.

The opposite. We just take it as it comes up here and try to appreciate what we get. Trying to solve snow below 725 feet in the PNW lowlands and find the perfect primer will make you a little nutty.

 

What we do know up here is there are essentially snowless winters ahead. I'll let you know by late February of those winters to be on the lookout for those lil' stinkers!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

I'm going to do a thread on this a bit down the road. In general Portland seems to do better with the blocking a bit loser to the coast while Seattle wants it further out. Months like January 1950 are just so epic it doesn't really matter, although the blocking probably varies during months like that.

Sounds good. Yeah I've noticed Seattle does better with the blocking further offshore. For you guys up there you don't really need all the Arctic air to dive down into Oregon. Plus you seem to do better with onshore flow. It seems lately whoever is on the southern edge of where the Arctic air stops gets all the snow. I remember you saying that Arctic Fronts back in the day use to produce more snow, hopefully that will come back again in the future.

[snow_wizard]

The opposite. We just take it as it comes up here and try to appreciate what we get. Trying to solve snow below 725 feet in the PNW lowlands and find the perfect primer will make you a little nutty.

 

What we do know up here is there are essentially snowless winters ahead. I'll let you know by late February of those winters to be on the lookout for those lil' stinkers!

 

I've gotten past the point of being a LITTLE nutty.  It makes me feel better knowing why we have gotten screwed so bad since January 2012.  Thankfully we have snuck in a couple of lucky ones outside of the big blasts.