March Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

I think you're misinterpreting me in this instance. I wasn't trying to antagonize you or challenge your point, I was just expanding on it with more context. Like I said, the map didn't tell the whole story. 

 

Never does.  

 

December of 2008 would look very snowy on a map showing total snow for the month... but there were many days with no snow that month.    That is the real story right?

[Deweydog]

Sure. Yet some places in the Willamette Valley hit 108-109 last August. Like you said, it's very difficult to get above the mid 100s pretty much everywhere in the valleys.

 

2009 was an exceptional air mass, but it wasn't unprecedented. Yet it produced some unprecedented lowland highs, some by a good margin.

Unprecedented is probably too strong a descriptor for any event. Just because KSEA ran past its previous record high by three degrees doesn't mean it was unprecedented. It does however indicate the rarity of such a combination of factors. 2009 had more going for it, and it shows in the record books, especially for Western Washington.

[luvssnow_spokane]

A Last gasp of winter. Snow rain mix here.

[Jesse]

PDX down to 48.

[Front Ranger]

Unprecedented is probably too strong a descriptor for any event. Just because KSEA ran past its previous record high by three degrees doesn't mean it was unprecedented. It does however indicate the rarity of such a combination of factors. 2009 had more going for it, and it shows in the record books, especially for Western Washington.

 

The sharpness of the ridge definitely was a distinguishing factor in 2009. The closest event historically was probably August 1981, both in terms of overall pattern and warmth of the air mass.

 

August 1981 produced some incredible numbers in western WA like 102 at Landsburg, 103 at Seattle UW, 107 at Shelton, 105 at Aberdeen, and 101 at Bremerton - all all-time highs. Yet SEA only managed 99.

 

Other similar pattern/air masses were July 1941 and June 1925, both of which also produced quite a few all-time highs across western WA.  

[TT-SEA]

A Last gasp of winter. Snow rain mix here.

 

Some very heavy rain here in the last couple hours with the occasional fat snowflake mixed in... almost turned over but now precip is moving out and the sky is turning red above the low clouds.  

[Front Ranger]

Never does.  

 

December of 2008 would look very snowy on a map showing total snow for the month... but there were many days with no snow that month.    That is the real story right?

 

Not a really a good comparison, since we're talking relative to average. Dec 2008 was very snowy relative to average. But nearly half the months the past three years were drier than average.

[Front Ranger]

Nice evening in Seattle.

 

[TT-SEA]

Not a really a good comparison, since we're talking relative to average. Dec 2008 was very snowy relative to average. But nearly half the months the past three years were drier than average.

 

Its the same thing that you are doing.    The vast majority of days in December 2008 were snowless... yet it was a very snowy month.   Go figure!

 

A very wet year... and now a very wet 4-year period... is still just as wet even if there are days with no rain or drier than average months.   

[snow_wizard]

Nice evening in Seattle.

 

Screenshot_1.png

 

Just in time to give us another frost.  It was bad here earlier...heavy rain and 40 degrees.

[TT-SEA]

Just in time to give us another frost.  It was bad here earlier...heavy rain and 40 degrees.

 

Incredibly dark and dreary afternoon for our area.    Felt like it was night in the middle of the afternoon.

 

Not so sure about frost though.   The models show that this break in the clouds is temporary and lots of low clouds fill in this evening.

[Jesse]

Just in time to give us another frost. It was bad here earlier...heavy rain and 40 degrees.

You guys got all the fun up there today. We are just now getting some actual showers, but they are light.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Down to 35

[Front Ranger]

Its the same thing that you are doing.    The vast majority of days in December 2008 were snowless... yet it was a very snowy month.   Go figure!

 

A very wet year... and now a very wet 4-year period... is still just as wet even if there are days with no rain or drier than average months.   

 

Eh, I see your point, but I still don't think it's a great comparison. Mathematically, it's much easier to get a snowier than normal month with just a couple days of snow, than to get a wetter than normal year with just a couple wetter than normal months. 

 

You're first point was absolutely correct - it has been very wet the past few years in your area. In the greater context, though, it was only wetter than normal about half the time over those years. Not sure why you keep saying 4 years when your map showed the past 3 years, though.

 

For comparison, 2012 was wetter than normal 9 months of the year. So was 1997, 1996, 1972, probably a few others. 1950 and 1968 both hold the record with 10 wetter than normal months. So all of those years were more consistently wet than any of the past 3-4 years.

 

I think the bigger story has been the extreme wetness of certain months: December 2015 was the second wettest December on record at SEA, October 2016 was the wettest October on record, February 2017 was the second wettest February on record. Those three months are what have driven the precip anomalies over the period more than anything else. 

[TT-SEA]

Eh, I see your point, but I still don't think it's a great comparison. Mathematically, it's much easier to get a snowier than normal month with just a couple days of snow, than to get a wetter than normal year with just a couple wetter than normal months. 

 

You're first point was absolutely correct - it has been very wet the past few years in your area. In the greater context, though, it was only wetter than normal about half the time over those years. Not sure why you keep saying 4 years when your map showed the past 3 years, though.

 

For comparison, 2012 was wetter than normal 9 months of the year. So was 1997, 1996, 1972, probably a few others. 1950 and 1968 both hold the record with 10 wetter than normal months. So all of those years were more consistently wet than any of the past 3-4 years.

 

I think the bigger story has been the extreme wetness of certain months: December 2015 was the second wettest December on record at SEA, October 2016 was the wettest October on record, February 2017 was the second wettest February on record. Those three months are what have driven the precip anomalies over the period more than anything else. 

 

You can just remove certain rainy months... just like you cannot remove the snowiest days when looking at snowfall for a month or winter.  

 

Its been well established that its been very wet up here since 2014.   

 

Those anomaly maps only back 3 years as I mentioned earlier.   It was the best I could do.    

 

SEA had 48.50 inches of rain in 2014... actually making it the wettest year of the 4-year period ending 12/31/2017.  

 

Also worth mentioning that SEA set the record for the wettest winter ever in 2015-16 and then promptly broke that record in 2016-17.     The winter of 2015-16 also featured the most days with rain ever at both SEA and PDX.   

[MossMan]

Stayed dry up here all day thankfully since I was feverishly working on the yard in between taking calls from our real estate agent. The 13” snow aftermath put me way behind with having to deal with all the down trees and branches.

[stuffradio]

You have to be trolling here.    I don't even know where to start.     

 

2014-2017 was the rainiest 4-year period in SEA history.   And Seattle just had back-to-back rainiest winters in history.   I am comparing to our average.   

 

And his neighborhood in Victoria was an extreme anomaly last year... and he has been trolling me for over a year about crippling drought as a joke.  Every time I respond to him... people mock me for taking his troll bait!  

 

And my rainfall total this month is only .40    Its only the 4th day of the month.

 

For reference... here is the precip anomaly over just the last year:

 

 

He doesn't want me to enjoy dry weather just because I'm in a rainy micro-climate.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Down to 33

[Front Ranger]

You can just remove certain rainy months... just like you cannot remove the snowiest days when looking at snowfall for a month or winter.  

 

Its been well established that its been very wet up here since 2014.   

 

Those anomaly maps only back 3 years as I mentioned earlier.   It was the best I could do.    

 

SEA had 48.50 inches of rain in 2014... actually making it the wettest year of the 4-year period ending 12/31/2017.  

 

Also worth mentioning that SEA set the record for the wettest winter ever in 2015-16 and then promptly broke that record in 2016-17.     The winter of 2015-16 also featured the most days with rain ever at both SEA and PDX.   

 

I never suggested removing any months. I agreed with you it's been wet. Just showed how a lot of the wetness of the past 4 years was due to a few extreme months. Both can be true!

 

2014 was wetter than normal for 8 months of that year...so that was the most consistently wet year of the past 4.

 

I've been told that winter can only be DJF, just like summer is only JJA, so I'm afraid your statement about 2016-17 is meteorologically incorrect. 

[TT-SEA]

I never suggested removing any months. I agreed with you it's been wet. Just showed how a lot of the wetness of the past 4 years was due to a few extreme months. Both can be true!

 

2014 was wetter than normal for 8 months of that year...so that was the most consistently wet year of the past 4.

 

I've been told that winter can only be DJF, just like summer is only JJA, so I'm afraid your statement about 2016-17 is meteorologically incorrect. 

 

 

Clarification that makes it worse... the term "winter" was used loosely.   It was actually the wettest October - April period.   The record was broken in 2015-16 and then broken again in 2016-17.

 

 

 

SEATTLE (AP) — Soggy Seattle has broken another rainfall record, and Portland is inching closer to smashing its own record.

Seattle measured 44.7 inches (114 centimeters) of rain between October and April, making it the wettest such period since records began in 1895, the National Weather Service in Seattle said.

It marks the second year in the row that the city has topped the historic rainfall record for that period.

With several days left to go this month, this year's record will likely be padded some more, said Mike McFarland, a meteorologist with the service in Seattle.

https://www.usnews.com/news/us/articles/2017-04-25/soggy-seattle-lives-up-to-name-breaks-another-rain-record

 

[Front Ranger]

 

Clarification that makes it worse... the term "winter" was used loosely.   It was actually the wettest October - April period.   The record was broken in 2015-16 and then broken again in 2016-17.

 

 

 

SEATTLE (AP) — Soggy Seattle has broken another rainfall record, and Portland is inching closer to smashing its own record.

Seattle measured 44.7 inches (114 centimeters) of rain between October and April, making it the wettest such period since records began in 1895, the National Weather Service in Seattle said.

It marks the second year in the row that the city has topped the historic rainfall record for that period.

With several days left to go this month, this year's record will likely be padded some more, said Mike McFarland, a meteorologist with the service in Seattle.

https://www.usnews.com/news/us/articles/2017-04-25/soggy-seattle-lives-up-to-name-breaks-another-rain-record

 

 

 

Yes, I know.

 

The interesting thing about this is that two of the driest late springs/early summers on record also happened in 2015-16. May - July 2015 was easily the driest MJJ in SEA history, and  April-Sep 2016 was the second driest such period in SEA history.

[TT-SEA]

Yes, I know.

 

Not gonna be broken in 2017-18!

 

Never know... 14 inches to go and still almost 2 full months left!  

 

Regardless... SEA is still running 4.50 inches above normal since October 1st so it certainly has not been dry.    I was expecting a dry cold season this year after breaking the record 2 years in a row.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Last December and January were fairly dry. October/November and February/March were wet.

[snow_wizard]

Yes, I know.

 

The interesting thing about this is that two of the driest late springs/early summers on record also happened in 2015-16. May - July 2015 was easily the driest MJJ in SEA history, and  April-Sep 2016 was the second driest such period in SEA history.

 

Not to mention last summer was epically dry.  Kind of an interesting period we are in.  My guess is this spring will be on the dry side.  Just a hunch with nothing to really back it up.  One thing I'm more confident of is this will be made up for.  We are probably due for a very dry couple of years pretty soon.

[TT-SEA]

Not to mention last summer was epically dry.  Kind of an interesting period we are in.  My guess is this spring will be on the dry side.  Just a hunch with nothing to really back it up.  One thing I'm more confident of is this will be made up for.  We are probably due for a very dry couple of years pretty soon.

 

Amen!  

[snow_wizard]

Another chilly night.  Already down to 36 at 8 pm.

[GHweatherChris]

Pretty sure mother nature does not give two shitts about what we are due for or not.

[TT-SEA]

00Z GFS takes away a nice Sunday.   

[GHweatherChris]

00Z GFS takes away a nice Sunday.

Oh well.

[MossMan]

00Z GFS takes away a nice Sunday.

Well crap. At least we still have Wednesday!

[TT-SEA]

Well crap. At least we still have Wednesday!

 

Tuesday.   

 

And a good part of Wednesday.    

[MossMan]

Tuesday.

 

And a good part of Wednesday.

Good! I have more outside stuff to get done early this week!

[Phil]

So old school. Baffin Bay ridging ftw.

 

[MossMan]

Snow at hour 372! Book it!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Tiny corner?

 

Its been record wet in the Seattle area over the last 4 years... where maybe 4 million people live. And VIS has been intentionally trying to get me to respond to his trolling for over a year now. I said today that I am not going to engage and I am still called out? He is trolling. Jared call him the master of trolling!

 

Here is the precipitation departure from average over the last 3 years (as far out as the maps go):

 

 

 

 

If you want to complain about drought down there... go right ahead. No one in Western WA will complain about drought. Just the opposite.

 

And I said earlier that I understood Jesse's perspective for Oregon.

 

From our perspective up here... it would be really nice to have at least one year that is drier than normal. Its been a long time for us in Western WA.

Yeah, it's been really wet for both SEA and PDX over the past 3 years. 16 to 20 inches of extra rain over the span of 3 years is a lot and is no joke. I know some of this has occurred in months with record precipitation but you are not going to get constant rain for the entire year, it comes in waves. We are due for drier weather the next few years at least here west of the Cascades.

[wx_statman]

Today was the 15th straight sub-52 maximum at PDX. This is only the 2nd time since 1971 that we've seen such a cool streak of maximums this late into the winter season. The other was in 2011. Both 2011 and 2018 inched past 1993 on the calendar, which had an 18 day streak end on March 3rd. 

[MikeInEverett]

Impressive CZ over central Snohomish County right now. Glad it’s not snow cause I’d be going nuts lol.

[TT-SEA]

Today was the 15th straight sub-52 maximum at PDX. This is only the 2nd time since 1971 that we've seen such a cool streak of maximums this late into the winter season. The other was in 2011. Both 2011 and 2018 inched past 1993 on the calendar, which had an 18 day streak end on March 3rd. 

 

Seems like we have just worked our way into a 2011 analog in the last couple months. 

 

2011 was the coldest spring in history in Seattle.     And it rained all the way through June.   So... only 4 months to go until some consistent nice weather.     

[Winterdog]

Heavy shower of mixed snow and rain going on here and 37F.

[Deweydog]

Seems like we have just worked our way into a 2011 analog in the last couple months.

 

2011 was the coldest spring in history in Seattle. And it rained all the way through June. So... only 4 months to go until some consistent nice weather.

It'll be worth it for the show.