March Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

I especially like the ones that have a nice mix of cold scenarios. Some of the springs in the 1980s were incredible. Extreme temperature fluctuations, very late snowfalls, late frosts, plenty of sunshine. I hate springs that feature endless light rain and gloom.

Same. Chilly, dynamic springs like 2008 are the way to go.

[snow_wizard]

We have a bit of a cold snap showing up about a week out now.  The operational GFS and the ensemble control clearly show it with 850s dropping to -5 or -6.  Keep it coming!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Same. Chilly, dynamic springs like 2008 are the way to go.

 

Unfortunately I missed spring 2008

[snow_wizard]

Same. Chilly, dynamic springs like 2008 are the way to go.

 

I would love to see one like 1951 also where it froze on 20 or so days in April in number of locations.  I think we're going to like this one.

[snow_wizard]

Or how about the incomparable 1949.  Numerous lows in the 30s in May, June, and July.  Frost (low to mid 30s) on July 4 in a number of places.

[snow_wizard]

Already down to 33 here tonight.

[MossMan]

All this snow (and a monkey tree) could be all yours if you are interested in moving into the heart of pscz goodness! Our house will be getting listed by the end of this week!

[MossMan]

Snow at hour 252 on the 00z GFS.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

All this snow (and a monkey tree) could be all yours if you are interested in moving into the heart of pscz goodness! Our house will be getting listed by the end of this week!

 

Very cool. If I were moving up there I would check it out. Looks like a nice property. 

[snow_wizard]

All this snow (and a monkey tree) could be all yours if you are interested in moving into the heart of pscz goodness! Our house will be getting listed by the end of this week!

 

I'm surprised you're leaving there.

 

My wife has expressed a willingness for us to possibly move to Granite Falls or Darrington.  I could unquestionably accept Darrington instead of moving to Central WA.  I have to find out more about Granite Falls.  The sparse records available for there do look promising.

[snow_wizard]

Snow at hour 252 on the 00z GFS.

 

Another solid cold snap in that time frame.  850s bottom out at about -8.  Going to be a fun spring!

[stuffradio]

Calgary Alberta has had its 7th wettest meteorological Winter since 1884.

[Jesse]

Every Euro run has been just hideous in the 6-10 day range lately.

 

GFS has looked much better overall.

[Deweydog]

Models be doing .

[Phil]

You can already see how the NPAC is re-organizing into more of a -PDO configuration.

 

We have also entered into a potent intraseasonal regime of net ocean-to-atmosphere heat fluxes, hence the warming global SSTs/cooling global subsurface.

 

[snow_wizard]

You can already see how the NPAC is re-organizing into more of a -PDO configuration.

 

We have also entered into a potent intraseasonal regime of net ocean-to-atmosphere heat fluxes, hence the warming global SSTs/cooling global subsurface.

 

 

Looks like a potenially major -PDO in the works with the warm NW Pacific.

[snow_wizard]

Every Euro run has been just hideous in the 6-10 day range lately.

 

GFS has looked much better overall.

 

The EPS looks pretty good overall.  We may have a ridge that lasts for a few days, but that will probably feature frosty night.

[wx_statman]

You're welcome. Eventually PDX will break 107 and set an all time record high. It sounds like a daunting task but we're talking only 1 or 2 more degrees here. It might happen this summer, next summer or in the next 50 years but it will eventually happen. Records are meant to be broken. SEA for the longest time was stuck at 100 but they finally broke through and got to 103 back in 2009 to set an all time record high. SEA is practically all water so nobody probably expected them to shatter their old record like that. Maybe PDX will break their record like how SEA did by 3 degrees and we jump to 110. Who knows?

 

We can certainly break 107 at some point. We'll need more than 26c @ 850 to do it, however. 

[wx_statman]

True, but Sand Point POR only goes back to 1986. They have no record from events like June 1955, July 1958, August 1960, and August 1981 - all of which brought triple digit temps to parts of the Seattle area. Given that they're further away from the water than SEA, it's not shocking they were a bit warmer that day.

 

Either way, this only further supports my point. No one could have looked at the air mass from July 2009 and predicted 103 at SEA or 105 at Sand Point. So it doesn't really make sense to say PDX could not have gone as high as 108+ with the air mass last August, just because they've seen air masses just as warm before and didn't.

 

On the contrary, it doesn't make sense to say that PDX could have hit 108+ last August. With or without smoke.

 

Making conjectures about all-time records is risky business. Especially when 850's didn't support it. Basic meteorology. 

[wx_statman]

July 2009 was an extremely hot air mass and, more importantly in Seattle's case, an extremely amplified ridge. Wednesday was the warmest day, but the thermal trough took on a negative tilt and took the edge off of things at PDX, relatively speaking. I remember there being some anecdotal reports of 110 in Lewis County. Seattle's 103/105 certainly wasn't a renegade.

 

112 at Mayfield Power Plant COOP and 108-112 at CWOP stations around Carnation, etc. Seattle's temps were certainly no fluke. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Low of 29 this morning. 

[TT-SEA]

Woke up at 6 a.m. to a partly cloudy sky and 31 degrees with a frost covered lawn... now moderate rain and 34.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Woke up at 6 a.m. to a partly cloudy sky and 31 degrees with a frost covered lawn... now moderate rain and 34.   

 

Some flurries and light ZR here this morning. Sun coming out now though!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12z shows a snowstorm the day I'm supposed to fly out of Philly.

[TT-SEA]

12z shows a snowstorm the day I'm supposed to fly out of Philly.

 

Can you be more cryptic?   What day is that?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Can you be more cryptic?   What day is that?

 

March 13th...And the snowstorm is there not here on the GFS. 

[TT-SEA]

March 13th...And the snowstorm is there not here on the GFS. 

 

 

Left out some key details... like its 9 days out and 3,000 miles away.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Jesse. Give us a snowpack report please! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

 

Left out some key details... like its 9 days out and 3,000 miles away.  

 

We are heading out tonight. Work stuff in DC through Wednesday, and then a little vacation Thursday-Tuesday. Thinking of going to my Dad's hometown in Kentucky, but might just stay a couple extra days touring Civil War battlefields in VA before heading up to Gettysburg and then Philly where we have friends. 

[MossMan]

We are heading out tonight. Work stuff in DC through Wednesday, and then a little vacation Thursday-Tuesday. Thinking of going to my Dad's hometown in Kentucky, but might just stay a couple extra days touring Civil War battlefields in VA before heading up to Gettysburg and then Philly where we have friends.

You and Phil should get together!

Currently 39 and mostly cloudy. Going to be working in the yard until sundown...hopefully it stays somewhat dry today.

[Front Ranger]

On the contrary, it doesn't make sense to say that PDX could have hit 108+ last August. With or without smoke.

 

Making conjectures about all-time records is risky business. Especially when 850's didn't support it. Basic meteorology.

So the 850s in 2009 clearly supported 103 at SEA, based on past events? Or is there more to it than that?

[Front Ranger]

Woke up at 6 a.m. to a partly cloudy sky and 31 degrees with a frost covered lawn... now moderate rain and 34.   

 

Sounds horribly spring-ish.

[Jesse]

Jesse. Give us a snowpack report please!

The area where we measured snowpack (north of Ray Benson Sno Park near Santiam pass) had 72” of snow on the ground and ~31” snow-water equivalent. The official sno-tel site (Hogg Pass) is only recording 42” and 11” SWE, though. It’s normal to see that kind of variance depending on tree coverage and slope exposure. Generally the whole upper McKenzie basin is running about 50-60% of average right now.

 

The official equipment that the NRCS uses is pretty neat. You use a big metal tube to measure the snow, and the snow that is compacted inside is used to estimate SWE. Then you weigh the whole thing to figure out the snow density (you know the volume at that height in the cylinder, divide the mass by the volume). Cool stuff.

[snow_wizard]

Dropped to 29 here this morning and then we had some graupel just after sunrise.  Pretty rare to have graupel during the coldest part of the day.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The area where we measured snowpack (north of Ray Benson Sno Park near Santiam pass) had 72” of snow on the ground and ~31” snow-water equivalent. The official sno-tel site (Hogg Pass) is only recording 42” and 11” SWE, though. It’s normal to see that kind of variance depending on tree coverage and slope exposure. Generally the whole upper McKenzie basin is running about 50-60% of average right now.

 

The official equipment that the NRCS uses is pretty neat. You use a big metal tube to measure the snow, and the snow that is compacted inside is used to estimate SWE. Then you weigh the whole thing to figure out the snow density (you know the volume at that height in the cylinder, divide the mass by the volume). Cool stuff.

 

Nice. Disappointingly low snow pack, but we can still make up for it in March and April. Especially if there is a slow melt. The mountains got a lot of snow in February, but it sounds like they didn't make up much ground because precip was so far below normal.

[Jesse]

Was going to post some pictures but it’s saying everything is too big to upload, even screenshots of pictures. Never had trouble before. I wonder if the forum lowered the size limit on pics recently.

[Jesse]

Nice. Disappointingly low snow pack, but we can still make up for it in March and April. Especially if there is a slow melt. The mountains got a lot of snow in February, but it sounds like they didn't make up much ground because precip was so far below normal.

Yeah they said last time they did a snow survey in early February there was less than a foot in the ground. 90% of the snowpack on the ground right now has fallen in the last 2-3 weeks. Which is an amazing recovery but still not enough. Hoping the models turn around soon because this is make up time.

[snow_wizard]

Was going to post some pictures but it’s saying everything is too big to upload, even screenshots of pictures. Never had trouble before. I wonder if the forum lowered the size limit on pics recently.

 

Maybe you have reached your upload quota.  Have you checked for that?  If you have you would need to go in an delete some of your previous photos.

[Front Ranger]

Was going to post some pictures but it’s saying everything is too big to upload, even screenshots of pictures. Never had trouble before. I wonder if the forum lowered the size limit on pics recently.

 

You probably have to delete some old attachments. There's a size quota for members for total attachments.

[snow_wizard]

Yeah they said last time they did a snow survey in early February there was less than a foot in the ground. 90% of the snowpack on the ground right now has fallen in the last 2-3 weeks. Which is an amazing recovery but still not enough. Hoping the models turn around soon because this is make up time.

 

That is one unfortunate thing about a roller coaster pattern.  They can bring dynamic weather and lots of cold / frosty nights, but they are usually not prolific snow makers for the mountains.