Jan 27th-29th Strong Hybrid Clipper

[Money]

Gfs

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2019012700&fh=48&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_mw&p=snku_acc&m=gfs

 

Went from 12.9 on 18z to 12.8 this run

[East Dubzz]

Gfs

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2019012700&fh=48&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_mw&p=snku_acc&m=gfs

 

Went from 12.9 on 18z to 12.8 this run

D**n man, those model shifts can really hurt you.

[Niko]

on a global model with the 15 miles is nothing. Anyhow not worth quibbling about. Makes no difference to me

Not disagreeing, ..that run doesn't make a huge difference anyway. Its just tad south. Thats all.

[St Paul Storm]

Gfs

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2019012700&fh=48&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_mw&p=snku_acc&m=gfs

Went from 12.9 on 18z to 12.8 this run

GFS Rock steady with this storm. Looking good

[East Dubzz]

Been a while we’re ive had my own personal prediction (3-6) not change for so long. Kind of refreshing for a change. Now let’s just not have any stupid happen at the last minute lol

[St Paul Storm]

The snow Gods have answered my prayers for you! Hope you score at least 6” and build up that snow pack.

Thanks bud. It’s been a while, no doubt.

[gosaints]

Doesn't look like their are any major changes on the FV3

[Money]

Gem is way weak and south

 

1000 mb at hr 36 way south of the boarder

[Madtown]

Starting to believe this one may happen...had my doubts all along that the totals were just too ridiculous but seems to be a reality. Driving from Milwaukee toMadison tomorrow evening, should be fun.

[WBadgersW]

 

Still sharing the love

[jaster220]

Thanks bud. It’s been a while, no doubt.

 

Hope you get the goods SPS. Good luck up there!

[St Paul Storm]

Hope you get the goods SPS. Good luck up there!

Thanks. I’d be happy with just 4-6” if this doesn’t pan out as modeled. Pretty easy to make a guy happy that’s had only 12” for the season.

 

Good luck to you as well over there.

[jaster220]

Gem is way weak and south

 

1000 mb at hr 36 way south of the boarder

 

27/0z at h36 isn't like that on TT

[jaster220]

snku_acc.us_mw (2).png

 

Still sharing the love

 

0z GEM much further south for those of us east in SMI. Gets warning level snows well south of The Mitt into NIN. IWX gonna have another situation on their hands if the GEM is correct

[Niko]

Canadian is south

[East Dubzz]

Gem is way weak and south

 

1000 mb at hr 36 way south of the boarder

You sure about that?

[Niko]

0z GEM much further south for those of us east in SMI. Gets warning level snows well south of The Mitt into NIN. IWX gonna have another situation on their hands if the GEM is correct

Yup..looking much better ma man.

[St Paul Storm]

0z Fv3 identical to 18z in SLP placement and strength at hr 36. Right over East Dubzz’s place.

[Money]

You sure about that?

B/W maps got me lol

 

https://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/530_100.gif

[East Dubzz]

B/W maps got me lol

 

https://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/530_100.gif

I don’t even look at those anymore. I hate them lol

[Money]

Can we lock in the GFS FV3?

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2019012700&fh=42&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_mw&p=snku_acc&m=gfs_fv3

[jaster220]

@ Niko

 

If south trends continue, I'm sure headlines will be forth-coming soon enough. Doesn't really hit Marshall until Monday morning. Scored at least 1/2" from tonight's clipper. Are you getting anything there yet?

[jaster220]

Can we lock in the GFS FV3?

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2019012700&fh=42&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_mw&p=snku_acc&m=gfs_fv3

 

Ummm..no

 

American models still playing catch-up, they've not been maintained since the shut-down

[Niko]

0z UKMET went south

[Niko]

@ Niko

 

If south trends continue, I'm sure headlines will be forth-coming soon enough. Doesn't really hit Marshall until Monday morning. Scored at least 1/2" from tonight's clipper. Are you getting anything there yet?

Currently 0.7" so far. Probably end up w an inch or so. Radar looks impressive.

[Money]

Ummm..no

 

American models still playing catch-up, they've not been maintained since the shut-down

Funniest thing I’ve seen on here in awhile

[East Dubzz]

It’s hard to tell for sure because I don’t have enough info loaded, but the Euro I believe is the same. Could be roughly north or north, but no major changes in track.

[East Dubzz]

Got the SLP loaded and it may be slightly south, but so little you wouldn’t even know the difference. Euro is staying further south, but the differences are minimal at this point.

[East Dubzz]

Snowfall from Euro

[Tom]

Back in the saddle after a long day yesterday.  This has been a nail biter tracking this system around these parts trying to see if we can score some of the heavier snows.  It's finally nice to see a true hybrid clipper tracking through the region and laying down quite the expansive snow shield.  All the model data is pointing towards S/C Wisco get shellacked!  Nice to see the 00z Euro still trying to painting 6"+ across I-88 on north.  Boy, places from Kenosha, WI on north are in an ideal spot for Lehs and then back-end LES.  There are prob going to be multiple bands coming in off LM into the MKE area.

 

Meantime, not sure if this is just noise, but there has been an ever so slight S trend in the higher rez models across N IL.  For instance, check out the animations below from both the high rez NAM and RGEM.  You can see the last 4 runs a notable S/SW trend in the track of the SLP across IA.  It's not necessarily a big deal for those across MN/WI but indeed something to monitor for N IA into N IL and points East.

 

Also, if you look at the most recent trends off the NAM the heavier precip is skirting a tad south as well.

 

 

 

[Tom]

Interesting write up from LOT suggesting 1"+/hr snowfall rates across the region and the fact that they were debating to issue Warning's across the I-88/290 counties.

 

 

 

For snow tonight, have tried to account for a quicker onset than
the mean of guidance, especially for north central Illinois. As
just seen the past two days with weaker clippers, snow onset
happened quickly, and the warm, moist advection as well as
positive vorticity advection is robust with this system. Snow
should envelop the CWA moving east-southeast through the evening
and early overnight. Precipitable waters in the warm sector of
this system as sampled last evening in British Columbia (rare we
here use a sounding from up there!) were one half inch. Models
steer this over the forecast area tonight, with 3.5 to 4 g/kg
mixing ratios on 280-290K surfaces where isentropic lift is large.
In addition, steep lapse rates from 800-500 mb as sampled will
also advect into the warm advection precipitation swath with this
system. This moisture and the thermodynamics, along with strong
parameters for lift, should provide for a window of time with
snowfall rates exceeding 1 inch per hour with likely quarter mile
visibility in the northern CWA, especially along and north of
I-88/I-290. High-resolution models and the SREF add confidence to
this in showing high rates late this evening and overnight in
this area.

Some parts of the I-88/I-290 counties may see over six inches of
snowfall if those heavier rates can last a while, but felt the
Advisory message was best there, with the warning message over the
far north where confidence was higher. Snowfall ratios should be
dropping as the night goes on and profiles moderate, but the
model signal is very consistent for QPF being high late this
evening into overnight, so that lends to decent confidence in
snowfall amounts.

[Tom]

Here is the NWS WPC 50%/95% Percentile snowfall range to provide a range of what we can expect.  I remember posting this map using the 95% percentile range for the Jan 11th/12th S MW storm and it did quite well.

 

 

[Tom]

I'm seeing this subtle S/SW shift in the storm track in the GFS and the latest 06z GFS is certainly leaning towards more snow across NE IA/N IL.  This allows the intense banding to pivot a little farther S into N IL for a longer duration and ups snowfall totals.  I'd like to see today's 12z suite to jump on board if this is legit or not.

 

 

 

 

 

[Tom]

06z Euro...

[james1976]

Yeah DMX mentioned 1"/hr rates as well. I'm liking the S shift. Pretty soon it will be radar trends.

[dubuque473]

I am liking what DVN is saying for me. Up to 6” now, possible 35 mph gusts. Mentions heavy snow at times. I am still locked in at 5”.

[Money]

Chicago is def gonna reel this one away from me

[Niko]

This storm is trending south from what I am seeing. A little bit more south and Detroit gets hammered. My area points north is now in the heavy snow zone w 1 to 2" per/hr snowfall rates are expected from NOAA. All models continued to trend south this morning. Also, Chicago is looking a lot better now in receiving heavy snow as well.

[Niko]

Yeah DMX mentioned 1"/hr rates as well. I'm liking the S shift. Pretty soon it will be radar trends.

Me too.

[Madtown]

...does someone get a blizzard warning out of this?!?