Jan 27th-29th Strong Hybrid Clipper

[gosaints]

North dakota!

 

The worst blowing around here will probably actually be Tuesday afternoon.

[St Paul Storm]

Chicago is def gonna reel this one away from me

I doubt it. They might get a good hit especially northern parts but you’re in a very good spot. Latest HRRR looking right on track.

 

Edit: in fact, latest HRRR and RAP have areas north of me getting blasted.

[BMT]

What do ya know... the south trend is real?

[gosaints]

Long live the king...

[Money]

NAM takes the low into N IL as well

[Money]

NAM is also a lot more juiced up than previous run. Band of 12-16 from LSE over to Milwaukee

[gosaints]

Way more juiced

[Money]

HRRR is also juiced showing 16+ in spots but it’s way to strong compared to other models pressure wise

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=snku_acc&rh=2019012712&fh=33&r=us_mw&dpdt=&mc=

[St Paul Storm]

Locked and loaded. Those bands on the 3k NAM. Wowzers.

[james1976]

Not liking that HRRR. Way more north.

[Money]

3km nam and 12km nam pretty much in 100% agreement with the placement of the band and amounts

 

3k: http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2019012712&fh=33&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_mw&p=snku_acc&m=nam4km

[gosaints]

Not liking that HRRR. Way more north.

low pressure and vort a long ways away not sure how well it will perform run to run

[St Paul Storm]

Woah. I didn’t look at the NAM runs past hr 20. Those totals are on the increase. Hmmm

[Hawkeye]

The NAMs are south with the surface low, but they've dried out the moisture plume over Iowa a bit.  Here in Cedar Rapids, we only get front-end snow for 5-6 hours and then the dry slot swoops in.  2-3" may be all we can get.

[james1976]

The NAMs are south with the surface low, but they've dried out the moisture plume over Iowa a bit. Here in Cedar Rapids, we only get front-end snow for 5-6 hours and then the dry slot swoops in. 2-3" may be all we can get.

Dry air in Iowa? No way....

[Hawkeye]

12z RGEM is the wettest run of any model in days for the CR/IC area.  It has the 0.50" line down to CR.  I think I'd lean more toward the 0.20-0.30" of other models.

[WBadgersW]

I'm glad to see the NAM finally show some hefty totals for my area (12-15"). Hopefully the GFS goes back to it's previous runs. 06z was not very impressive.

[Money]

12z gfs coming in a good bit south from 6z...

[Iowawx]

That’s a decent shift south. SLP looks like it’s in central Iowa.

[Money]

Chicago magnet

[Hawkeye]

Yeah, the northern models have really come south, so there's a pretty good consensus now (as there should be considering it's almost here) the low will move ese to near Cedar Rapids and then east from there.

[Iowawx]

Yeah, the northern models have really come south, so there's a pretty good consensus now (as there should be considering it's almost here) the low will move ese to near Cedar Rapids and then east from there.

12Z GFS looks really good for CR.

[Money]

Milwaukee gets crushed this run

 

4 mb stronger and a bit more NW at 30

[bud2380]

Much better run for Cedar Rapids and even Iowa City getting close to 4” on this run. Interesting.

[Money]

Madison with 15+ and still snowing through hr 27

 

Cuts the total almost in half up this way

[Hawkeye]

12z GFS

 

[Tom]

12z GFS...those are some heft totals just across the "cheddar curtain"...

 

[james1976]

QPF quite a bit higher in Iowa. I wanna see radar trends before I get too excited.

[Hawkeye]

Man, the GFS and HRRR are on different planets this morning.  The HRRR has the snow band WAY north.

[Tom]

Both the 12z RGEM/GFS look identical in terms of track and strength...this is a dream run for Lehs for MKE and maybe as far south as Racine Kenosha, WI.

 

 

 

[Money]

6z

 

Madison: 9.8

Milwaukee: 11.8

 

12z

 

Madison: 16.7

Milwaukee: 16.9

[james1976]

Wow GFS with 9+ imby. Cant wait for the other 12z runs.

[GDR]

Chi town could get blasted if the south trend continues

[gosaints]

Gonna be a fun nowcast

[jaster220]

Back in the saddle after a long day yesterday.  This has been a nail biter tracking this system around these parts trying to see if we can score some of the heavier snows.  It's finally nice to see a true hybrid clipper tracking through the region and laying down quite the expansive snow shield.  All the model data is pointing towards S/C Wisco get shellacked!  Nice to see the 00z Euro still trying to painting 6"+ across I-88 on north.  Boy, places from Kenosha, WI on north are in an ideal spot for Lehs and then back-end LES.  There are prob going to be multiple bands coming in off LM into the MKE area.

 

Meantime, not sure if this is just noise, but there has been an ever so slight S trend in the higher rez models across N IL.  For instance, check out the animations below from both the high rez NAM and RGEM.  You can see the last 4 runs a notable S/SW trend in the track of the SLP across IA.  It's not necessarily a big deal for those across MN/WI but indeed something to monitor for N IA into N IL and points East.

 

Also, if you look at the most recent trends off the NAM the heavier precip is skirting a tad south as well.

 

Yeah, but what it does to help IA, it steals from SWMI by turning NE quicker. Not gonna get my vote ofc

[Niko]

Wagons South.....

12z GFS south

GFS south

12z GGEM south

[WBadgersW]

6z

 

Madison: 9.8

Milwaukee: 11.8

 

12z

 

Madison: 16.7

Milwaukee: 16.9

Kenosha/Racine special? Probably not, but they always seem to get the big totals.

[gosaints]

FV3 juiced and loaded

[Hawkeye]

12z FV3

 

Doesn't bring the 0.50" qpf as far south as the GFS, so it's probably more realistic.

 

[WBadgersW]

CMC lowered snowfall amounts in the heaviest band and is further South.