Mountain West Discussion

[Black Hole]

It hit 61F today and was followed by a good batch of thunderstorms and then some even better ones later. The second set of storms had almost dime size hail, heavy rain, gusty winds, and frequent lightning. Not a bad little show. Looking at another chance of that on Sunday.

[Black Hole]

I also launched a rawinsonde today for class so that was fun.

[westiztehbest]

It hit 61F today and was followed by a good batch of thunderstorms and then some even better ones later. The second set of storms had almost dime size hail, heavy rain, gusty winds, and frequent lightning. Not a bad little show. Looking at another chance of that on Sunday.

Nice.  Those are fun.  Looks like the warm spell will end by early next work week.  Might be a decent cold front passage down there.

[Black Hole]

Yes indeed. Tomorrows cold front looks pretty unstable and will have very high pressure rises behind it. So a chance of thunderstorms, strong winds, and maybe even snow showers before its all over.

[Black Hole]

Had a somewhat cooler low of 30 last night but has warmed quickly into the upper 50s again today. Looking at another solid cold front Wednesday with a couple of inches of snow and cooler air again.

[westiztehbest]

Got a couple inches this morning but it melted this afternoon as it got to 45 F.

[Black Hole]

That is what happened here the other day, nothing of interest for now though.

[westiztehbest]

Was cold and dry today, with an Arctic frontal boundary sagging just south of here.  Dewpoints were in the teens today while the high got to 32 F.  Supposed to get 2-5" tomorrow through Monday morning.  I'll take a middle of the road guess and say 3".

[Black Hole]

Today was pretty nice, partly sunny and a high of 50. Should continue to climb towards 60 again early next week with some rain possible later in the week. Interesting you are doing much better in the cold department. Looks like this general pattern may continue for some time.

[westiztehbest]

Getting moderate snow at the moment @ 24 F.  Snow is powdery and dry.  Probably have gotten 3" today and it's really coming down.  None of the models progged today's snowfall at all.  The NWS didn't hoist a winter weather advisory until this afternoon.  A bit of a pleasant surprise indeed.  

 

[Black Hole]

Nice picture! 61F here today, each of the next two days should be similar. Lots of rain chances towards the weekend.

[westiztehbest]

60's sound pretty nice.  I'm coming down to SLC in late April so def looking forward to warmer temps!  Got a bit over 5" a couple days ago.  Looks like the NAM is showing 3" on Friday afternoon with a wicked NE wind pushing down from the Idaho Panhandle.  Pretty impressive cold pool getting shoved West of the continental divide.  Temperatures Saturday/Sunday morning are going to get COLD and there may be some record low highs for those days.  Snow chances/totals for next Monday/Tuesday could be interesting as well.

[westiztehbest]

Getting 30+ MPH gusts out of the NE tonight.  Dewpoints have dropped to near zero and temperatures are sure to follow suite.  I was thinking of taking a hike tomorrow but wind chills are going to be around -15 so we'll see about that.

 

Sunday-Monday look to be mad snow days.  Just how much falls is still in question but most are predicting 4-8".  Since it's gong to start so cold the snow ratios are going to be high (20:1)...so I'm thinking 6".  After Monday it looks like the first jump up in temperatures towards spring is going to occur.  Highs in the upper 40's and mild.  The weekend will be winters last gasp.

 

[Black Hole]

Nice, what is the latest up there? Looks like some zr in spots today.

 

We have had some good downpours at times the last few days. Pretty warm still too with highs in the 50s. February was 4th warmest all time and 2nd for the lows. Looks like more rain at times this week with one chance of snow.

[westiztehbest]

Nice, what is the latest up there? Looks like some zr in spots today.

 

We have had some good downpours at times the last few days. Pretty warm still too with highs in the 50s. February was 4th warmest all time and 2nd for the lows. Looks like more rain at times this week with one chance of snow.

Yeah ended up getting 5".  Not bad.  Had some sleet last night when I took a walk.  Freezing rain this morning with a cold NE wind still keeping the lower levels below freezing.  Until about 1 pm then the precip stoped and temps warmed up to about 34 F.  The next several days are going to be a deluge of rain and so there's a flood watch out although it doens't really affect me since I'm not located by the river.  Just nuisance puddles is the only thing I have to worry about.

[Black Hole]

Another 60 degree day here, they seem so easy to come by now haha. Pretty good rain expected tomorrow.

 

That does sound quite impressive up there. How common is zr this time of year? It seems like it would be somewhat infrequent.

[Black Hole]

I've been out of town for a few days, but it looks like there was a nice cold front today. Not much moisture though.

[Black Hole]

I'm coming back on Saturday, looks like a mostly quiet weather week...again.

[Black Hole]

High wind warning for tomorrow with FROPA. Warning has gusts to 65mph, I am going with 50-60 for most though along the Wasatch Front.

[Black Hole]

Had some heavy rain squalls today.

[Black Hole]

Two heavy graupel showers today. One of which had frequent thunder and lightning. Pretty fun to see. 

[Black Hole]

Another decent cold front with rain to snow this afternoon. It was in the 60s yesterday

[Black Hole]

Yesterdays storm delivered about 1.25" of snow. Overnight at the airport with no snow they fell to 36 while it hit 26 at my place with the snow. We are only a few miles apart. Up to the low 50s today and most of its gone.

 

Another storm tomorrow should bring some rain and maybe snow.

 

Feel free to comment anybody else...

[Dan the Weatherman]

Yesterdays storm delivered about 1.25" of snow. Overnight at the airport with no snow they fell to 36 while it hit 26 at my place with the snow. We are only a few miles apart. Up to the low 50s today and most of its gone.

 

Another storm tomorrow should bring some rain and maybe snow.

 

Feel free to comment anybody else...

 

Are you at a higher elevation than the airport, or was the snow hit and miss for the region? I may have asked you about your elevation in relation to the airport before but that was probably on the old forum.

[Black Hole]

Just a little bit higher than the airport, maybe 100-150 feet. I would have to see what they are exactly. For whatever reason my area is one of the snowier spots in the valley. Most areas got about an inch with this but the warm-biased airport never got below 36 as I mentioned.

[Black Hole]

Decent rain this evening with a temp of 38. Probably more rain and snow tomorrow.

[Black Hole]

There is snow every single spring, but the amount varies. This is our wettest time of year so its normally active either way. I think April itself averages about 4" or so of snow.

[Dan the Weatherman]

Just a little bit higher than the airport, maybe 100-150 feet. I would have to see what they are exactly. For whatever reason my area is one of the snowier spots in the valley. Most areas got about an inch with this but the warm-biased airport never got below 36 as I mentioned.

 

That little bit of elevation just might be what makes the difference, unless you are in an upslope area where more lifting occurs to squeeze out more precipitation in general. I have never been to the Salt Lake City area so I am not at all familiar with the terrain.

[Black Hole]

It has to be some kind of upslope effect. It is something I would like to look into and see if I can figure out the mechanism and flow pattern that is responsible. I will post something tomorrow about the terrain of the area for you.

[Black Hole]

We had some heavy showers today which amounted to .12". Warm and sunny weather all of next week. SLC airport may record its first 80, but the rest of the valley should peak around 75.

[Black Hole]

Wall-to-wall sunshine today, high of 62 at my house. 65 at the airport.

[Black Hole]

Been nice the last few days. High of 77 here today.

[Black Hole]

Cold air spilling over the mountains this weekend. A slight chance of showers Sunday. 

[larna3]

Not a cloud in the sky today so far, in SLC, and temps in the low 70's, LOVE IT!!

[Black Hole]

Yeah, nice day. We don't get too many of these before it gets hot again.

[Black Hole]

Got down to 29 at SLC this morning, chilly! Probably much warmer tonight though.

[larna3]

Got down to 29 at SLC this morning, chilly! Probably much warmer tonight though.

Brrr that's cold. 

[larna3]

Ensembles showing a dip in temperatures over the next day or so, and then a general warming trend with some possible unsettled weather! YAHOO! 

[Black Hole]

Yeah it will be interesting to see. There are definitely some chilly ensemble members with associated precip, and then there are some that don't show anything happening. I'm definitely leaning towards something but I don't trust the ECMWF solution of snow.

[Black Hole]

Warm the next few days with a vigorous cold front headed in Tuesday. Looks like strong gusty winds with this one and then rain to snow. I would also think thunderstorms may be possible as well.

[Black Hole]

Big storm rolling in tomorrow. High wind warning for gusts to 60mph along with thunderstorms and then snow overnight. Should be a fun ride.

[Black Hole]

Quiet today, but another storm coming in this weekend. The one we had the other day was pretty wild!

[Black Hole]

Some convective showers are expected here tomorrow with maybe even a little snow for Monday morning.

[Black Hole]

Wet day! A storm total of .76"

[Coco-nut]

Amazingly we received 0.90" here in Flagstaff yesterday. The 3" of snow is melting fast.

[Black Hole]

That is really impressive! Looks like another .1" or so will be coming overnight with a chance of some snow...then a hard freeze watch for tomorrow night.

[Dan the Weatherman]

Amazingly we received 0.90" here in Flagstaff yesterday. The 3" of snow is melting fast.

 

Is is good to see parts of AZ receiving some much-needed precipitation in what has been an incredibly dry winter season. I am thinking that the monsoon could be rather active this summer, with additional moisture from eastern Pacific tropical systems if El Nino does develop.

 

I am hoping for the potential El Nino to be strong enough to change the pattern so that the Southwest can have a decent chance of having a much wetter winter season than the last three years in order to help to alleviate the long-term drought conditions.

[Black Hole]

Dan, I am encouraged by the well above normal waters in both the Pacific and Atlantic. I would imagine El nino might weaken Atlantic storms, but not the Pacific as much.

[Dan the Weatherman]

Dan, I am encouraged by the well above normal waters in both the Pacific and Atlantic. I would imagine El nino might weaken Atlantic storms, but not the Pacific as much.

 

El Nino often, but not always, leads to reduced Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane formation by increasing the westerly wind shear over the Main Development Region (MDR) of the Atlantic. Eastern Pacific tropical activity, on the other hand, is usually enhanced in the summers with developing El Nino conditions, resulting in more storms and some stronger storms as well. The warmer waters in the tropical Pacific along with the +PDO signature in the north Pacific at this time are definitely good signs.

[Black Hole]

I agree with all of that Dan. At least at this point we have had a little extra water from enhanced westerly flow as of late. That looks to shut off for at least a few days this week.