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I work for NRCS (Natural Resources Conservation Service), National Water & Climate Center where I issue the following reports on Drought and Snowpack (Water Supply):

 

The Monthly Western Snowpack and Water Supply Forecast Report has also been posted to the NWCC homepage in MS Word and Adobe Acrobat formats at the following address: http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/cgibin/westsnowsummary.pl.

 

The Weekly CONUS Snowpack and Drought Update Report has been posted to the NWCC homepage as an Adobe Acrobat file at the following address: http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/cgibin/water/drought/wdr.pl. Archived copies can also be acquired there.

 

Feel free to subscribe to these:

 

https://public.govdelivery.com/accounts/USDANRCS/subscriber/new?topic_id=USDANRCS_78

P R I S M

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Disgustingly dry here in northern Arizona. No snow or rain since the week before Christmas.

 

It has been just like that here in Socal as well, no rain since Dec. 19, and that was a puny "storm" for my area. It seems that it has been as dry as Death Valley lately across the entire state of CA. The desert southwest overall has been quite dry lately as well.

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There was a big bottleneck of years with a 28 day winter dry spell here in Flagstaff, we have now reached that and are in fifth place over all with the longest winter dry spell. By Tuesday night we will be in 3rd place with the longest one in over 40 years. With no precipitation predicted for the coming week it is quite possible for us to roll into next week and hit the 2nd place one at 37 days or even the longest at 39 days.

 

I was much happier last summer when we hit the record for wettest July monsoon. :(

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There was a big bottleneck of years with a 28 day winter dry spell here in Flagstaff, we have now reached that and are in fifth place over all with the longest winter dry spell. By Tuesday night we will be in 3rd place with the longest one in over 40 years. With no precipitation predicted for the coming week it is quite possible for us to roll into next week and hit the 2nd place one at 37 days or even the longest at 39 days.

 

I was much happier last summer when we hit the record for wettest July monsoon. :(

 

If this pattern continues for much longer, a much larger portion of the country is going to be in drought conditions and I don't just mean the west coast states.

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February is looking look it could turn more active per the Euro weeklies/CFS.  

 

The weather in Spokane has consisted of low clouds during the day and freezing fog at night.  Temperatures have gotten close to 32 F and thats about it.  The trees are frosty.

 

 

Went snowshoeing up in the North Idaho mountains a couple days ago and it was sunny above 4K feet.  Was nice to see some blue sky finally.

 

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Nice maps! Yeah it sort of looks like some pretty good CAA ahead of the storm should start us as snow. Probably not a lot of it, but some. I think it switches to rain and then back to snow as the front pushes through. As of now on Thursday night the heavier snow is shown to the south but more often than not it trends north. How do you think you will do with this?

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Oh, and did you say somewhere you have a degree? If so we should get you a met tag.

I'm thinking 2 inches seems reasonable.  If the temperatures stay at 30 F or less...then 3 inches is a possibility with Wednesday's system.  3" is about the average snowfall for a storm here generally.  If the temperatures in the teens or twenties, that's where the 4-8" storms usually occur.  I went to the U of Utah.  Was a met in Sandy for a year.  Have thought about getting back into it...but not sure if I'd want to take a pay cut at this point from where I'm at now.

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Chris, although not quite as bad as the mountains in Oregon and California we are definitely way below normal. There were bare patches on the south side of the mountains up to about 8-9k feet before yesterday. Probably running 20-40% of normal before the storm.

 

Hopefully the next few weeks can make up some ground there.

 

Been getting intermittent light snow most of the day today.  The winds have gotten breezy out of the NE (outflow from the Purcell Trench).  The modified Arctic front passed this afternoon.  Dewpoints are dropping.  

 

If it clears out the next few nights it's going to get cold.  There's 4-4.5" on the ground now.

 

 

Phew next week looks to get chilly.  The 12z ECMWF showed -17F next Wednesday/Thursday for a minimum temp.  Brr!

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Wow, you have done really well the last few days! We ended up with about 2.5" or so from the front that has melted down to 1" now. Some light snow falling this morning too.

 

Extended is looking interesting with a surprising amount of ensemble agreement. We will both be quite cold but up in your area I think you will see much colder temperatures. That said Tuesday looks like a couple inches and next weekend could be significant.

 

Which storms do you have your eye on for biggest potential? Do you think the block will break down as shown?

 

 

Sidenote -- I normally use IE but for some reason I can't use quote on it so that is why I usually don't quote people...I have to switch browsers to do it haha

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I'm thinking later today there may be some light snow here.  Not sure if there will be much in the way of accumulation.  Midweek looks cold.  I'm thinking for Wed-Sat lows are going to be around -10F and highs around 15.  Suppose we'll see.  Things could go lower with min temps.  I'm unsure about next weekend and snow potential at this point.  Will have to re-evaluate midweek to see if moderate/significant overrunning will occur or if light snow chances are more likely.

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Got 3" today.  May get another 1-2" tonight.  Tomorrow it looks to warm above freezing for the first time in about 26 days.  That's apparently the 7th longest streak.  Have about 9" on the ground now.  Shame it'll be short lived since a warm up to normal high temps are expected for the rest of the week (39-40 F).  Most of the snow will probably be gone by this time next week.

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haha You are doing pretty well over there then. Pretty much all of the snow is gone and its been in the mid 40s the last few days. Could hit 60 this Saturday here.

 

60 F actually sounds pretty nice.  I remember when I lived in SLC it getting into the 50's on occasion in February.  At least having the sun out, anyway.   I've noticed the sun going down a bit later lately - more light certainly helps my mood.  

 

Winter is great but the darkness gets old after a couple months.

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