Mountain West Discussion

[Black Hole]

A nice day tomorrow but showers and thunderstorms look to make a return the next couple of days after that. 

[Black Hole]

I have gotten a few of my friends to sign up...but not really post yet.

[Black Hole]

.34 two days, ago, .40 yesterday in the bucket. More to come today.

[Dan the Weatherman]

Snow in the Denver area. Always amazing to see May snow at that latitude.

We don't hear too much about Denver area weather in general on here since Flatiron stopped posting a few months ago.

[Black Hole]

There was some snow in several parts of Utah with that, especially south in Ceder City. Yesterday we had a pretty good graupel shower with about dime sized pieces that were exploding on contact because of their wet nature.

[Black Hole]

Quiet weather here the next couple days again. I think thunderstorm activity may pick up next week though. Troughing will be sitting near the area for a few days.

[Chris]

How does the snowpack look in the Rocky Mountains?  I know the Sierras is truly pathetic. 

[Black Hole]

I need to look into official statistics. I went hiking the other day and it was still snowcovered but I have no idea how common that is since I moved here less than a year ago. I just looked up a chart that showed the state. The far north is above normal, the middle is 70-90% of average. The far south is 20-50% of average.

[larna3]

I need to look into official statistics. I went hiking the other day and it was still snowcovered but I have no idea how common that is since I moved here less than a year ago. I just looked up a chart that showed the state. The far north is above normal, the middle is 70-90% of average. The far south is 20-50% of average.

Seems like in the North, we typically see snow drifts that last into July and August in some cases.  Good to know that we're above normal!

[larna3]

Chance of a few showers looking pretty good for Saturday!  Shouldn't ruin all of Memorial Day Weekend, Sunday and Monday look dry and warm! Go out and enjoy the long weekend!  

[Black Hole]

Looks like showers moving in from the east today as well. I see there was a severe thunderstorm warning in southern Utah earlier.

[Black Hole]

Deformation band over the area dumping heavy precipitation in a narrow area. About a third of an inch already.

[Dan the Weatherman]

I saw on the news that there was some flooding in the Loveland, CO area, but I am not sure if it occurred today or yesterday.

[Black Hole]

I didn't know about the flooding but I did see a Severe thunderstorm Watch had been posted.

[Dan the Weatherman]

I didn't know about the flooding but I did see a Severe thunderstorm Watch had been posted.

I saw a report on WeatherNation showing several streets that were flooded in Loveland, and a video on AccuWeather.com showing flooding in the Denver metro area. The AccuWeather reporter indicated that a Flood Warning was in effect for some of the region, especially along the Platte (not sure of spelling) River. 

[Dan the Weatherman]

I am certainly liking the +PDO signature in the Pacific as I believe conditions are more favorable for El Nino to continue to develop. Also I am encouraged by the AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) trending negative over the last few months. It is my opinion and conclusion from looking at past weather records that the combination of -PDO, +AMO, and ENSO neutral or weak ENSO conditions bring about the worst droughts in California, particularly the southern half of the state, and that the Southwest in general is affected by drought in this pattern as well. The last three years have been under this general pattern and I am really glad to see everything trending away from it now, and am certainly more encouraged now that there is a much higher chance of wetter winters in the future if these trends continue.

IMO it is critical that a moderate to strong El Nino forms to increase the chances of getting drought relief this next winter because there seems to be a lag time of about a year before the atmosphere reacts to changes in the PDO and AMO. On the other hand, the effects from ENSO are felt the following winter since it is a shorter-term pattern. If the AMO and PDO continue trending the way they are now, wetter winters would be possible even in ENSO neutral years beginning in 2015-16.

I should note that La Nina (regardless of AMO and PDO phases) tends to contribute to drought conditions in the SW states, but the effects in CA are more mixed with some years being wetter and others being drier. This is another reason why the SW has frequently been in drought since about 1999.

 

Note: I also posted this same comment in the California thread, because this applies to both regions.

[Black Hole]

Thanks for the insight. I do think there is hope for the next few years with what you have said. It probably can't get much worse.

[Black Hole]

Hot today, high of 91.6F at my place.

[Dan the Weatherman]

Thanks for the insight. I do think there is hope for the next few years with what you have said. It probably can't get much worse.

I forgot to add one thing to my post from the other night, and that is that -PDO often leads to drought conditions over the SW states, but not always in CA, and we have been in a -PDO phase from mid 1998 to mid 2002 and from 2007 to late last year. CA got into a much more serious drought pattern when the factors I mentioned before came together beginning in 2012.

 

I totally agree with you that conditions probably can't get much worse than these last two years. I am hoping that this is the last ultra-dry winter for a while.

[Black Hole]

A couple of weak thunderstorms rolled by this evening with some light rain. It was nice to see. Another warm day near 90 too.

[westiztehbest]

Have had some good thunderstorms the last couple days with heavy rain, hail and thunder + lightning.  Power went out briefly last night.  Was in the mid 70's but after the storms moved through the temperatures dropped to the upper 50's.

[Black Hole]

Nice! Two nights ago it was super warm...83 at 1am!

[Black Hole]

Nothing going on right now! Although there is about a 20% chance of a storm tomorrow.

[Black Hole]

Probably a 30-40% of some high based storms tomorrow. Some rain possible, but mostly a microburst/dry lightning threat.

[Dan the Weatherman]

Probably a 30-40% of some high based storms tomorrow. Some rain possible, but mostly a microburst/dry lightning threat.

Hopefully fire activity can be kept to a minimum, as I am assuming that the fire danger is rather high in your area right now.

[Black Hole]

Huge red flag warning right now including my area but no fires I know if nearby. We did see some thunderstorms with gusty winds but little rain.

[Dan the Weatherman]

TWC reported that there were several fires in Utah today, but they must have been elsewhere in the state.

[Black Hole]

Generally that's true. There have been a couple small ones nearby but I haven't seen them and they have generally been less than about 10 acres each.

[Black Hole]

The 12z GFS shows a good dump of rain here next week. I hope it verifies as its been very dry for some time.

[Black Hole]

Crazy day here. High of only 56 and that was at midnight. It was in the mid 40s all day with moderate rain. .41" in the bucket. Down to 43 already so probably a low in the 30s tonight.

[Dan the Weatherman]

Crazy day here. High of only 56 and that was at midnight. It was in the mid 40s all day with moderate rain. .41" in the bucket. Down to 43 already so probably a low in the 30s tonight.

That is rather cold for your area this time of year! It is good to see that you got some much-needed rainfall as you were hoping for. The same low pressure system has brought some pleasantly cool and breezy weather to Socal during the last couple of days. I wish that we could get some rain down here, but climatologically this is one of the driest times of the year for the region.

[Black Hole]

Yeah it sure was fun to see. A good amount of snow in the mountains. A place I hiked with bare ground 2 weeks ago got 9"!

[Black Hole]

Its hot! Low 90s today. Looks completely dry and fairly warm for quite a while. Next Wed-Thurs may be in the upper 90s.

[westiztehbest]

It's been pretty pleasant here.  Been in the low 70's the past week and today was in the upper 70's today.

[Black Hole]

I am visiting Portland now so its cooler but apparently there was a good soaking rain from thunderstorms in Salt Lake yesterday.

[Black Hole]

I'm back and its hot! Upper 90s yesterday, today, and for the foreseeable future it will remain toasty. Slight chance of storms next week.

[Black Hole]

Another hot one, 98F today.

[Black Hole]

The high has been 99 for 3 days at both my house and the airport. Won't happen today with more clouds and showers/storms expected.

[Black Hole]

A high of 104.8 at my house today. Very unpleasant.

[Black Hole]

Looks like the storm threat will pick up the next few days with at least a moderate chance of some rain. Still warm though.

[Coco-nut]

The storm threat has left northern Arizona for a little while. :-(

[Black Hole]

Looking for about a 30% chance of a shower tomorrow. No rain in a while and none after tomorrows small threat. May start to see some fires popping up soon.

[Coco-nut]

They have been letting the lightning caused fires that are not threatening structures burn with only minimal management up here on the mogollon rim and on the north rim. I know it is good fire management techniques but man is it still scary seeing the smoke plumes.

[Black Hole]

That's surprising that they just let them burn but I guess they know what they are doing. We had a little rain with some good thunder and lightning here.

[Black Hole]

Another few quiet days but thankfully a bit cool after the 103 the other day. Anyway looks like renewed chances of thunder starting Sunday.

[Black Hole]

Nice, what are you doing there? I am sure you will see something.

 

Chance of storms tonight, but then storms likely Mon-Tue.

[Black Hole]

I've had exactly 1.00" of rain the last two days, which is pretty good for around here. Looks like more showers moving in the next couple of hours too. Not a good chance of rain the next few days, but probably some storms at times. Sunday night looks promising.

[Black Hole]

Just a road trip with my fiancee to see the Rockies and Calgary. The Great Can-Am road trip. Seems like the NWS has an outlook for some convective energy between Spokane and Kalispell on Saturday-Sunday.

Good luck and have fun.

 

A little warmer and dry through Saturday but another huge monsoonal push is coming. Looks like another heavy dose of rain/storms Sunday-Tuesday.

[Black Hole]

Underwhelming so far with just about a 1/10" of showers overnight. Probably more this afternoon but hopefully with some actual gusto.

[Black Hole]

Unreal thunderstorm this evening with .51" all in 10 minutes, peak rate of 12.52"/hr. Wow!! Wind gust of 43 mph and a lot of thunder and lightning. Best storm I've ever seen for rain/wind.