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I need to look into official statistics. I went hiking the other day and it was still snowcovered but I have no idea how common that is since I moved here less than a year ago. I just looked up a chart that showed the state. The far north is above normal, the middle is 70-90% of average. The far south is 20-50% of average.

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I need to look into official statistics. I went hiking the other day and it was still snowcovered but I have no idea how common that is since I moved here less than a year ago. I just looked up a chart that showed the state. The far north is above normal, the middle is 70-90% of average. The far south is 20-50% of average.

Seems like in the North, we typically see snow drifts that last into July and August in some cases.  Good to know that we're above normal! :)

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I didn't know about the flooding but I did see a Severe thunderstorm Watch had been posted.

I saw a report on WeatherNation showing several streets that were flooded in Loveland, and a video on AccuWeather.com showing flooding in the Denver metro area. The AccuWeather reporter indicated that a Flood Warning was in effect for some of the region, especially along the Platte (not sure of spelling) River. 

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I am certainly liking the +PDO signature in the Pacific as I believe conditions are more favorable for El Nino to continue to develop. Also I am encouraged by the AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) trending negative over the last few months. It is my opinion and conclusion from looking at past weather records that the combination of -PDO, +AMO, and ENSO neutral or weak ENSO conditions bring about the worst droughts in California, particularly the southern half of the state, and that the Southwest in general is affected by drought in this pattern as well. The last three years have been under this general pattern and I am really glad to see everything trending away from it now, and am certainly more encouraged now that there is a much higher chance of wetter winters in the future if these trends continue.

IMO it is critical that a moderate to strong El Nino forms to increase the chances of getting drought relief this next winter because there seems to be a lag time of about a year before the atmosphere reacts to changes in the PDO and AMO. On the other hand, the effects from ENSO are felt the following winter since it is a shorter-term pattern. If the AMO and PDO continue trending the way they are now, wetter winters would be possible even in ENSO neutral years beginning in 2015-16.

I should note that La Nina (regardless of AMO and PDO phases) tends to contribute to drought conditions in the SW states, but the effects in CA are more mixed with some years being wetter and others being drier. This is another reason why the SW has frequently been in drought since about 1999.

 

Note: I also posted this same comment in the California thread, because this applies to both regions.

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Thanks for the insight. I do think there is hope for the next few years with what you have said. It probably can't get much worse.

I forgot to add one thing to my post from the other night, and that is that -PDO often leads to drought conditions over the SW states, but not always in CA, and we have been in a -PDO phase from mid 1998 to mid 2002 and from 2007 to late last year. CA got into a much more serious drought pattern when the factors I mentioned before came together beginning in 2012.

 

I totally agree with you that conditions probably can't get much worse than these last two years. I am hoping that this is the last ultra-dry winter for a while.

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Crazy day here. High of only 56 and that was at midnight. It was in the mid 40s all day with moderate rain. .41" in the bucket. Down to 43 already so probably a low in the 30s tonight.

That is rather cold for your area this time of year! It is good to see that you got some much-needed rainfall as you were hoping for. The same low pressure system has brought some pleasantly cool and breezy weather to Socal during the last couple of days. I wish that we could get some rain down here, but climatologically this is one of the driest times of the year for the region.

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I've had exactly 1.00" of rain the last two days, which is pretty good for around here. Looks like more showers moving in the next couple of hours too. Not a good chance of rain the next few days, but probably some storms at times. Sunday night looks promising.

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Just a road trip with my fiancee to see the Rockies and Calgary. The Great Can-Am road trip. Seems like the NWS has an outlook for some convective energy between Spokane and Kalispell on Saturday-Sunday.

Good luck and have fun.

 

A little warmer and dry through Saturday but another huge monsoonal push is coming. Looks like another heavy dose of rain/storms Sunday-Tuesday.

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