Mountain West Discussion

[Black Hole]

Been nice the last few days. High of 77 here today.

[Black Hole]

Cold air spilling over the mountains this weekend. A slight chance of showers Sunday. 

[larna3]

Not a cloud in the sky today so far, in SLC, and temps in the low 70's, LOVE IT!!

[Black Hole]

Yeah, nice day. We don't get too many of these before it gets hot again.

[Black Hole]

Got down to 29 at SLC this morning, chilly! Probably much warmer tonight though.

[larna3]

Got down to 29 at SLC this morning, chilly! Probably much warmer tonight though.

Brrr that's cold. 

[larna3]

Ensembles showing a dip in temperatures over the next day or so, and then a general warming trend with some possible unsettled weather! YAHOO! 

[Black Hole]

Yeah it will be interesting to see. There are definitely some chilly ensemble members with associated precip, and then there are some that don't show anything happening. I'm definitely leaning towards something but I don't trust the ECMWF solution of snow.

[Black Hole]

Warm the next few days with a vigorous cold front headed in Tuesday. Looks like strong gusty winds with this one and then rain to snow. I would also think thunderstorms may be possible as well.

[Black Hole]

Big storm rolling in tomorrow. High wind warning for gusts to 60mph along with thunderstorms and then snow overnight. Should be a fun ride.

[Black Hole]

Quiet today, but another storm coming in this weekend. The one we had the other day was pretty wild!

[Black Hole]

Some convective showers are expected here tomorrow with maybe even a little snow for Monday morning.

[Black Hole]

Wet day! A storm total of .76"

[Coco-nut]

Amazingly we received 0.90" here in Flagstaff yesterday. The 3" of snow is melting fast.

[Black Hole]

That is really impressive! Looks like another .1" or so will be coming overnight with a chance of some snow...then a hard freeze watch for tomorrow night.

[Dan the Weatherman]

Amazingly we received 0.90" here in Flagstaff yesterday. The 3" of snow is melting fast.

 

Is is good to see parts of AZ receiving some much-needed precipitation in what has been an incredibly dry winter season. I am thinking that the monsoon could be rather active this summer, with additional moisture from eastern Pacific tropical systems if El Nino does develop.

 

I am hoping for the potential El Nino to be strong enough to change the pattern so that the Southwest can have a decent chance of having a much wetter winter season than the last three years in order to help to alleviate the long-term drought conditions.

[Black Hole]

Dan, I am encouraged by the well above normal waters in both the Pacific and Atlantic. I would imagine El nino might weaken Atlantic storms, but not the Pacific as much.

[Dan the Weatherman]

Dan, I am encouraged by the well above normal waters in both the Pacific and Atlantic. I would imagine El nino might weaken Atlantic storms, but not the Pacific as much.

 

El Nino often, but not always, leads to reduced Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane formation by increasing the westerly wind shear over the Main Development Region (MDR) of the Atlantic. Eastern Pacific tropical activity, on the other hand, is usually enhanced in the summers with developing El Nino conditions, resulting in more storms and some stronger storms as well. The warmer waters in the tropical Pacific along with the +PDO signature in the north Pacific at this time are definitely good signs.

[Black Hole]

I agree with all of that Dan. At least at this point we have had a little extra water from enhanced westerly flow as of late. That looks to shut off for at least a few days this week.

[Black Hole]

A nice day tomorrow but showers and thunderstorms look to make a return the next couple of days after that. 

[Black Hole]

I have gotten a few of my friends to sign up...but not really post yet.

[Black Hole]

.34 two days, ago, .40 yesterday in the bucket. More to come today.

[Dan the Weatherman]

Snow in the Denver area. Always amazing to see May snow at that latitude.

We don't hear too much about Denver area weather in general on here since Flatiron stopped posting a few months ago.

[Black Hole]

There was some snow in several parts of Utah with that, especially south in Ceder City. Yesterday we had a pretty good graupel shower with about dime sized pieces that were exploding on contact because of their wet nature.

[Black Hole]

Quiet weather here the next couple days again. I think thunderstorm activity may pick up next week though. Troughing will be sitting near the area for a few days.

[Black Hole]

I need to look into official statistics. I went hiking the other day and it was still snowcovered but I have no idea how common that is since I moved here less than a year ago. I just looked up a chart that showed the state. The far north is above normal, the middle is 70-90% of average. The far south is 20-50% of average.

[larna3]

I need to look into official statistics. I went hiking the other day and it was still snowcovered but I have no idea how common that is since I moved here less than a year ago. I just looked up a chart that showed the state. The far north is above normal, the middle is 70-90% of average. The far south is 20-50% of average.

Seems like in the North, we typically see snow drifts that last into July and August in some cases.  Good to know that we're above normal!

[larna3]

Chance of a few showers looking pretty good for Saturday!  Shouldn't ruin all of Memorial Day Weekend, Sunday and Monday look dry and warm! Go out and enjoy the long weekend!  

[Black Hole]

Looks like showers moving in from the east today as well. I see there was a severe thunderstorm warning in southern Utah earlier.

[Black Hole]

Deformation band over the area dumping heavy precipitation in a narrow area. About a third of an inch already.

[Dan the Weatherman]

I saw on the news that there was some flooding in the Loveland, CO area, but I am not sure if it occurred today or yesterday.

[Black Hole]

I didn't know about the flooding but I did see a Severe thunderstorm Watch had been posted.

[Dan the Weatherman]

I didn't know about the flooding but I did see a Severe thunderstorm Watch had been posted.

I saw a report on WeatherNation showing several streets that were flooded in Loveland, and a video on AccuWeather.com showing flooding in the Denver metro area. The AccuWeather reporter indicated that a Flood Warning was in effect for some of the region, especially along the Platte (not sure of spelling) River. 

[Dan the Weatherman]

I am certainly liking the +PDO signature in the Pacific as I believe conditions are more favorable for El Nino to continue to develop. Also I am encouraged by the AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) trending negative over the last few months. It is my opinion and conclusion from looking at past weather records that the combination of -PDO, +AMO, and ENSO neutral or weak ENSO conditions bring about the worst droughts in California, particularly the southern half of the state, and that the Southwest in general is affected by drought in this pattern as well. The last three years have been under this general pattern and I am really glad to see everything trending away from it now, and am certainly more encouraged now that there is a much higher chance of wetter winters in the future if these trends continue.

IMO it is critical that a moderate to strong El Nino forms to increase the chances of getting drought relief this next winter because there seems to be a lag time of about a year before the atmosphere reacts to changes in the PDO and AMO. On the other hand, the effects from ENSO are felt the following winter since it is a shorter-term pattern. If the AMO and PDO continue trending the way they are now, wetter winters would be possible even in ENSO neutral years beginning in 2015-16.

I should note that La Nina (regardless of AMO and PDO phases) tends to contribute to drought conditions in the SW states, but the effects in CA are more mixed with some years being wetter and others being drier. This is another reason why the SW has frequently been in drought since about 1999.

 

Note: I also posted this same comment in the California thread, because this applies to both regions.

[Black Hole]

Thanks for the insight. I do think there is hope for the next few years with what you have said. It probably can't get much worse.

[Black Hole]

Hot today, high of 91.6F at my place.

[Dan the Weatherman]

Thanks for the insight. I do think there is hope for the next few years with what you have said. It probably can't get much worse.

I forgot to add one thing to my post from the other night, and that is that -PDO often leads to drought conditions over the SW states, but not always in CA, and we have been in a -PDO phase from mid 1998 to mid 2002 and from 2007 to late last year. CA got into a much more serious drought pattern when the factors I mentioned before came together beginning in 2012.

 

I totally agree with you that conditions probably can't get much worse than these last two years. I am hoping that this is the last ultra-dry winter for a while.

[Black Hole]

A couple of weak thunderstorms rolled by this evening with some light rain. It was nice to see. Another warm day near 90 too.

[westiztehbest]

Have had some good thunderstorms the last couple days with heavy rain, hail and thunder + lightning.  Power went out briefly last night.  Was in the mid 70's but after the storms moved through the temperatures dropped to the upper 50's.

[Black Hole]

Nice! Two nights ago it was super warm...83 at 1am!