Mountain West Discussion

[richard mann]

You must have had an incredibly heavy downpour to generate those kinds of numbers! How much rain did you receive after the storm passed?

Not as much as you would think since the storm started and stopped within 10 minutes. So I got .51" in that time with the really crazy stuff confined to about 3 minutes or so. I don't want to clutter the PNW thread with my stuff but here is a video if you want to watch it. Skip ahead to 2 min for the best part if you want.

 

 .. So, to what do you attribute the more noteworthy level of precip., in this short time .. Derrick. 

 

— I was looking at the somewhat odd direction that sub-tropical moisture generated recently, has been being directed: some further north than usual, some more northeast to where you are. This with also the more specific topography right there more close-in to where you are; .. these ideas along together with some different elements of what I study mainly, i.e. colder air's movement looked at together with more general distribution, more year-round.

 

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=3461&eocn=image&eoci=related_image

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=4597

[Black Hole]

Although there was very heavy precip throughout the valley this seemed particularly heavy compared to anybody else. Looking at the weather service page where they noted various reports of rain and wind I had the second highest precip total and second highest wind gust in the area. So for the two together I had the highest combo.

 

Anyway assuming it was as localized as I believe it was, I think the microburst was basically right overhead which is why it was so dramatic but not so once you got away from my area.

 

I really have never seen anything comparable here so I assume it was quite rare.

 

I will also add that the radar returns did not reflect the true rain rate. This was probably because of the very low cloud base which allowed precipitation growth nearly all the way to the ground. The strong winds were from a little downdraft cape that was present ahead of the line.

[richard mann]

-

.. I see. 

[Black Hole]

 

-

.. I see. 

 

I answered your questions.

[Phil]

Definitely a microburst. They're fascinating phenomenon, that's for sure...actually have been known to bring winds over 165mph. Official microburst wind record is 150mph, at AFB near Washington DC, occurring just a few minutes after Ronald Reagan landed there: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/cae/svrwx/downburst.htm

 

They can be detected easily on vertical-integrated liquid scans too, so next time you see a storm around, look for high values.

 

We've had some rough microbursts here in recent years too. The June 29th, 2012 Derecho was full of imbedded microbursts, one of which slammed me with a 127mph wind. Scariest moment of my life

[richard mann]

I answered your questions.

 

Right. Just acknowledging your thoughts. 

 

I see, on all counts. 

[Dan the Weatherman]

 

Not as much as you would think since the storm started and stopped within 10 minutes. So I got .51" in that time with the really crazy stuff confined to about 3 minutes or so. I don't want to clutter the PNW thread with my stuff but here is a video if you want to watch it. Skip ahead to 2 min for the best part if you want.

 

Black Hole, that was quite a squall line that came through your area, even if it didn't last long. It was good to see some much-needed rain in your area.

[Black Hole]

Black Hole, that was quite a squall line that came through your area, even if it didn't last long. It was good to see some much-needed rain in your area.

We had another inch of rain today with quarter sized hail. But it was highly localized to just a couple miles around my house. Of course I wasn't here at the time but still kind of cool.

[Black Hole]

pic.twitter.com/aRcj7gfMHx

 

You can see a pic I took later from some that my Mom saved in the freezer for me

[Black Hole]

Definitely a microburst. They're fascinating phenomenon, that's for sure...actually have been known to bring winds over 165mph. Official microburst wind record is 150mph, at AFB near Washington DC, occurring just a few minutes after Ronald Reagan landed there: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/cae/svrwx/downburst.htm

 

They can be detected easily on vertical-integrated liquid scans too, so next time you see a storm around, look for high values.

 

We've had some rough microbursts here in recent years too. The June 29th, 2012 Derecho was full of imbedded microbursts, one of which slammed me with a 127mph wind. Scariest moment of my life

Nice, and thanks. Yes, we do get microbursts out west fairly often...but wet microbursts are very rare.

[Black Hole]

Been quiet for a few days but more action starting up. Looks like some wet and potentially strong storms the next two days here. Flash flood watch posted.

[Black Hole]

We had some decent lightning and brief rain but nothing noteworthy here. Quiet for a long time coming now with highs near 90 and sunny.

[Black Hole]

Suddenly looking like storms possible again Monday night now.

[Black Hole]

We did get thunderstorms last night so that was fun, .42" in the bucket. Large instability present right now with 2000+ MU CAPE and an LI of -8.

[Black Hole]

I am at 2.71" for August which is way above normal. The weather service office is probably on average a little drier than me and they average .78" in August. So if we use it anyway that puts me at roughly 350% of normal.

 

More light showers in the area today but we are expecting a good soaking Friday into Saturday with more rain possible next Monday night. I bet I have about 3-3.5" or so by months end.

 

July was also above normal with 1.28" at my house, airport average .70".

 

For the year I am at 15.42", the weather service averages 15.73" on the year. So With quite a bit of time left I could be well above normal there too. 

[Dan the Weatherman]

I am at 2.71" for August which is way above normal. The weather service office is probably on average a little drier than me and they average .78" in August. So if we use it anyway that puts me at roughly 350% of normal.

 

More light showers in the area today but we are expecting a good soaking Friday into Saturday with more rain possible next Monday night. I bet I have about 3-3.5" or so by months end.

 

July was also above normal with 1.28" at my house, airport average .70".

 

For the year I am at 15.42", the weather service averages 15.73" on the year. So With quite a bit of time left I could be well above normal there too. 

You have done pretty well for the year so far, and have received more precipitation (liquid equivalent or otherwise) than San Francisco had during the 2013-14 (July 1 - June 30) season as they only totaled 12.54". I am assuming that your total is for the calendar year from January 1 to the present.

[Black Hole]

You have done pretty well for the year so far, and have received more precipitation (liquid equivalent or otherwise) than San Francisco had during the 2013-14 (July 1 - June 30) season as they only totaled 12.54". I am assuming that your total is for the calendar year from January 1 to the present.

Yeah Jan 1 to present. And its nice because we really did need it. Mountain areas have done well too so hopefully this helps you guys out down the road as it drains into the Colorado.

[Black Hole]

Two thunderstorms here on the day so far with more coming and steady rain overnight. Pretty weird for this time of year.

[Black Hole]

Some big thunderstorms across the area last night. Not too much action at my place but I picked up enough rain to be at 3.06" for the month of August now. Still expecting more Sunday night and again Monday night or Tuesday.

[Black Hole]

More showers and storms bumped me to 3.38" for the month. A few more are expected today so maybe I end up at about 3.5" for august.

[Dan the Weatherman]

More showers and storms bumped me to 3.38" for the month. A few more are expected today so maybe I end up at about 3.5" for august.

What is the average total precip for August for your area?

[Black Hole]

What is the average total precip for August for your area?

The airport average is .69, so although I think I am on average a little wetter it probably isn't much. Lets just use that, that would then put me at about 500% of normal for the month.

[Dan the Weatherman]

The airport average is .69, so although I think I am on average a little wetter it probably isn't much. Lets just use that, that would then put me at about 500% of normal for the month.

Wow, you have had quite a good month as far as rainfall goes. Hopefully this means that a much better winter is ahead for the West in general, but that is certainly not a guarantee, as active summer patterns don't necessarily lead to more active winter patterns.

[Black Hole]

Wow, you have had quite a good month as far as rainfall goes. Hopefully this means that a much better winter is ahead for the West in general, but that is certainly not a guarantee, as active summer patterns don't necessarily lead to more active winter patterns.

 

Well if nothing else it should help to raise water levels both here and downstream. I do think that an active monsoon resembles the older el nino patterns that often had wet winters to follow with an active STJ. So although its hard to say, I think odds favor a wetter winter for that reason...and because its been a while since we both have seen one.

[Dan the Weatherman]

Well if nothing else it should help to raise water levels both here and downstream. I do think that an active monsoon resembles the older el nino patterns that often had wet winters to follow with an active STJ. So although its hard to say, I think odds favor a wetter winter for that reason...and because its been a while since we both have seen one.

I agree with you that the odds of a wetter winter are better this year, especially with the PDO being positive for much of this year so far. Hopefully the PDO remains positive going into the fall and winter.

[Black Hole]

This is for the airport, but a good illustration of the month of August.

 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/FXC/wxstory.php?wfo=slc

[Dan the Weatherman]

This is for the airport, but a good illustration of the month of August.

 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/FXC/wxstory.php?wfo=slc

It is certainly nice to see some above normal precip for a change, considering how dry overall it has been during the last couple of years.

[Black Hole]

Chilly, low of 50.7F this morning at my house.

[Black Hole]

We had a thunderstorm this morning with .09" then another shower in the afternoon, for a while it was blue sky overhead which was fun. Another shower approaching now.

 

Big surge of monsoonal moisture coming up from the south. Probably going to see some serious rain in the south with several inches possible. Up here it looks wet but much less so. Probably more storms and less just heavy rain.

[weatherfan]

Hi Black Hole. I am a long-time reader of this weather forum and some other weather forums though I don't post often. I enjoy studying the weather and its many aspects. I have a question for you regarding this upcoming weather this Fall and Winter. Do you think the same as some meteorologists when it comes to super early (perhaps record-breaking) start to snow season?

[Black Hole]

Hi Black Hole. I am a long-time reader of this weather forum and some other weather forums though I don't post often. I enjoy studying the weather and its many aspects. I have a question for you regarding this upcoming weather this Fall and Winter. Do you think the same as some meteorologists when it comes to super early (perhaps record-breaking) start to snow season?

You should post more often! I would love to have somebody else who lives here to talk with.

 

As far as this fall/winter I think that it should be said first that nobody knows for sure. However el nino climatology suggests that an early start to fall/winter is more likely than not. Therefore I agree with the general prognosis that we may see an early start this year. I certainly hope we do!

[Black Hole]

Had a nice storm yesterday with a half inch of rain, hail, and frequent lightning. About one flash a second!

[Black Hole]

Looking ahead I can see another pacific hurricane taking the same path as Norbert did. So although it would be hard to top the last storm, the potential exists for more heavy rain throughout Utah again. This will be next Thurs and Fri.

[Black Hole]

I wish other people posted in here!!!

 

Possible big and cold storm for this next weekend. Early estimates would be .50-.75" of water and snow down to 8-9k feet.

[Black Hole]

How early can you get snow in the valley?

We are already in snow season technically. The earliest accumulating snow on record was on the 16th or 18th of this month, 2". One computer model earlier showed borderline snow next week actually, although I doubt it happens its nice to see.

[Dan the Weatherman]

I wish other people posted in here!!!

 

Possible big and cold storm for this next weekend. Early estimates would be .50-.75" of water and snow down to 8-9k feet.

Maybe some of these subforums that don't have too many people posting need to be combined to form a larger region with more members so that there is more activity. Then later on if the membership grows and there are a sizable number of people in each region, then they can be split once again.

[Black Hole]

Models still going crazy with precip Saturday for Utah. Most are in the 1-2" range in just a 6-12 hour period.

[Dan the Weatherman]

We'll see. The downside with a larger group is that new members tend not to post when all they see is "Seattle Weather".

I don't think the Pacific Northwest subforum needs to be combined with any other subforum, since it is large enough to stand alone. I was thinking more of having the Mountain West and Desert SW in one subforum merged for example, and possibly other areas adjacent to one another in which one subforum is used much less than the other.

[Black Hole]

I think this was a good move combining these.

[Dan the Weatherman]

I think this was a good move combining these.

I think we will get a few more people posting in here now, as the weather patterns in both regions are closely related most of the time. When I see significant future monsoon events or other weather in places such as AZ or NV, I will certainly post them here if they are noteworthy.

[weatherfan]

You should post more often! I would love to have somebody else who lives here to talk with.

 

As far as this fall/winter I think that it should be said first that nobody knows for sure. However el nino climatology suggests that an early start to fall/winter is more likely than not. Therefore I agree with the general prognosis that we may see an early start this year. I certainly hope we do!

Sorry. I currently do not come on this forum often. I should. I too would like someone else to chat with about the weather. Utah, especially the Wasatch Front (Ogden, Salt Lake City, and Provo Valleys) has one of the most dynamic climates, especially from mid-Fall through early Spring. You seem to know your stuff about the weather.

[weatherfan]

Models still going crazy with precip Saturday for Utah. Most are in the 1-2" range in just a 6-12 hour period.

One model currently suggests that the Wasatch Front will be super close to the rain/snow line on Wednesday/Thursday of next week. Yes this weekend's storm looks fairly strong for this time of year.

[Black Hole]

One model currently suggests that the Wasatch Front will be super close to the rain/snow line on Wednesday/Thursday of next week. Yes this weekend's storm looks fairly strong for this time of year.

Yeah I saw that, for not I'm not buying it!

 

But the storm this weekend looks fun. I think the less it pinches off initially the better. Tends to result in better dynamics. I will post a full forecast later tonight.

[weatherfan]

Yeah I saw that, for not I'm not buying it!

 

But the storm this weekend looks fun. I think the less it pinches off initially the better. Tends to result in better dynamics. I will post a full forecast later tonight.

Sounds great! There are still some model runs today that are suggesting that an even colder storm (colder than this weekend's storm) may come in Wednesday or Thursday of next week with a snow level near 6,000 feet. Probably won't happen but if it does, it would be quite early and cold for this time of the year.

[Black Hole]

Still waiting for the rest of the 00z guidance to come in to try and get a better feel for things. But GFS is getting slower and slower with the arrival of the heavier rain. It still comes, but if its to be believed, it might be Saturday evening before it arrives.

[Black Hole]

As of right now I think we are looking first a mostly warm, windy, and sunny day tomorrow. Clouds will increase in the afternoon and it looks like thunderstorms will blow up in the evening, but will not be widespread. Good shear, instability, diffluence aloft, and increasing moisture make storms a good bet. Some may even be severe, but probably not for us.

 

These showers will continue into Saturday morning. As the front negatively tilts (back away from us), looks like we get a few drier hours in. Later the front will push through with a 3-6 hour period of heavy rain I think. Probably .5-1" for most.

 

Thoughts yourself?

 

As for next week I do see what you are talking about but my attention has been elsewhere lol. I will look into that storm in greater detail after ECMWF/Canadian come out later.

[weatherfan]

Still waiting for the rest of the 00z guidance to come in to try and get a better feel for things. But GFS is getting slower and slower with the arrival of the heavier rain. It still comes, but if its to be believed, it might be Saturday evening before it arrives.

Agreed. I, too, think that the heaviest rain begins in the evening on Saturday, probably sometime between 6-8pm with light to moderate rain before this and with a good chance of a thunderstorm or two before the heaviest rain begins.

[weatherfan]

As of right now I think we are looking first a mostly warm, windy, and sunny day tomorrow. Clouds will increase in the afternoon and it looks like thunderstorms will blow up in the evening, but will not be widespread. Good shear, instability, diffluence aloft, and increasing moisture make storms a good bet. Some may even be severe, but probably not for us.

 

These showers will continue into Saturday morning. As the front negatively tilts (back away from us), looks like we get a few drier hours in. Later the front will push through with a 3-6 hour period of heavy rain I think. Probably .5-1" for most.

 

Thoughts yourself?

 

As for next week I do see what you are talking about but my attention has been elsewhere lol. I will look into that storm in greater detail after ECMWF/Canadian come out later.

Okay. I currently mainly look at the GFS model's numerical output and the NAM, not the ECMWF or Canadian models as I don't really understand how to read/interpret them. I think that there will be at least 1" of rainfall with this weekend's storm for most areas of Utah with some areas receiving 2" of rain by Monday. I am looking forward to more thunderstorms over the next two to three days. This weekend's storm should introduce us to true Fall weather. I appreciate you looking at the ECMWF and Canadian models regarding next week's possible storm.

[Black Hole]

Okay. I currently mainly look at the GFS model's numerical output and the NAM, not the ECMWF or Canadian models as I don't really understand how to read/interpret them. I think that there will be at least 1" of rainfall with this weekend's storm for most areas of Utah with some areas receiving 2" of rain by Monday. I am looking forward to more thunderstorms over the next two to three days. This weekend's storm should introduce us to true Fall weather. I appreciate you looking at the ECMWF and Canadian models regarding next week's possible storm.

We can work on that sometime then. I can get you started on those.

 

Basically looks good on all models still. Every single one of them is 1" or more.

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php?YMD=20140925&RT=21&PRM=Total-QPF&SID=SLC&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=4&mLAT=37.77478874678&mLON=-96.042896875&mTYP=roadmap

 

This is the SREF for SLC, it has a mean precip total of 1.52" which is crazy for here.

[weatherfan]

Super heavy rain has fallen here in the past hour. Quite a bit of lightning and thunder early this morning as well. I think that heaviest rain from this storm is still expected to come in this evening and tonight, correct Black Hole? What is the chance of severe thunderstorms today for the Wasatch Front?