Mountain West Discussion

[Black Hole]

Nothing going on right now! Although there is about a 20% chance of a storm tomorrow.

[Black Hole]

Probably a 30-40% of some high based storms tomorrow. Some rain possible, but mostly a microburst/dry lightning threat.

[Dan the Weatherman]

Probably a 30-40% of some high based storms tomorrow. Some rain possible, but mostly a microburst/dry lightning threat.

Hopefully fire activity can be kept to a minimum, as I am assuming that the fire danger is rather high in your area right now.

[Black Hole]

Huge red flag warning right now including my area but no fires I know if nearby. We did see some thunderstorms with gusty winds but little rain.

[Dan the Weatherman]

TWC reported that there were several fires in Utah today, but they must have been elsewhere in the state.

[Black Hole]

Generally that's true. There have been a couple small ones nearby but I haven't seen them and they have generally been less than about 10 acres each.

[Black Hole]

The 12z GFS shows a good dump of rain here next week. I hope it verifies as its been very dry for some time.

[Black Hole]

Crazy day here. High of only 56 and that was at midnight. It was in the mid 40s all day with moderate rain. .41" in the bucket. Down to 43 already so probably a low in the 30s tonight.

[Dan the Weatherman]

Crazy day here. High of only 56 and that was at midnight. It was in the mid 40s all day with moderate rain. .41" in the bucket. Down to 43 already so probably a low in the 30s tonight.

That is rather cold for your area this time of year! It is good to see that you got some much-needed rainfall as you were hoping for. The same low pressure system has brought some pleasantly cool and breezy weather to Socal during the last couple of days. I wish that we could get some rain down here, but climatologically this is one of the driest times of the year for the region.

[Black Hole]

Yeah it sure was fun to see. A good amount of snow in the mountains. A place I hiked with bare ground 2 weeks ago got 9"!

[Black Hole]

Its hot! Low 90s today. Looks completely dry and fairly warm for quite a while. Next Wed-Thurs may be in the upper 90s.

[westiztehbest]

It's been pretty pleasant here.  Been in the low 70's the past week and today was in the upper 70's today.

[Black Hole]

I am visiting Portland now so its cooler but apparently there was a good soaking rain from thunderstorms in Salt Lake yesterday.

[Black Hole]

I'm back and its hot! Upper 90s yesterday, today, and for the foreseeable future it will remain toasty. Slight chance of storms next week.

[Black Hole]

Another hot one, 98F today.

[Black Hole]

The high has been 99 for 3 days at both my house and the airport. Won't happen today with more clouds and showers/storms expected.

[Black Hole]

A high of 104.8 at my house today. Very unpleasant.

[Black Hole]

Looks like the storm threat will pick up the next few days with at least a moderate chance of some rain. Still warm though.

[Coco-nut]

The storm threat has left northern Arizona for a little while. :-(

[Black Hole]

Looking for about a 30% chance of a shower tomorrow. No rain in a while and none after tomorrows small threat. May start to see some fires popping up soon.

[Coco-nut]

They have been letting the lightning caused fires that are not threatening structures burn with only minimal management up here on the mogollon rim and on the north rim. I know it is good fire management techniques but man is it still scary seeing the smoke plumes.

[Black Hole]

That's surprising that they just let them burn but I guess they know what they are doing. We had a little rain with some good thunder and lightning here.

[Black Hole]

Another few quiet days but thankfully a bit cool after the 103 the other day. Anyway looks like renewed chances of thunder starting Sunday.

[Black Hole]

Nice, what are you doing there? I am sure you will see something.

 

Chance of storms tonight, but then storms likely Mon-Tue.

[Black Hole]

I've had exactly 1.00" of rain the last two days, which is pretty good for around here. Looks like more showers moving in the next couple of hours too. Not a good chance of rain the next few days, but probably some storms at times. Sunday night looks promising.

[Black Hole]

Just a road trip with my fiancee to see the Rockies and Calgary. The Great Can-Am road trip. Seems like the NWS has an outlook for some convective energy between Spokane and Kalispell on Saturday-Sunday.

Good luck and have fun.

 

A little warmer and dry through Saturday but another huge monsoonal push is coming. Looks like another heavy dose of rain/storms Sunday-Tuesday.

[Black Hole]

Underwhelming so far with just about a 1/10" of showers overnight. Probably more this afternoon but hopefully with some actual gusto.

[Black Hole]

Unreal thunderstorm this evening with .51" all in 10 minutes, peak rate of 12.52"/hr. Wow!! Wind gust of 43 mph and a lot of thunder and lightning. Best storm I've ever seen for rain/wind.

[Black Hole]

LOTS of lightning off to my NW now and its easy to see since its dark. About every 2 seconds.

[richard mann]

(.. cross-reference.)

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/602-pacific-nw-august-2014-discussion/?p=30806

[richard mann]

You must have had an incredibly heavy downpour to generate those kinds of numbers! How much rain did you receive after the storm passed?

Not as much as you would think since the storm started and stopped within 10 minutes. So I got .51" in that time with the really crazy stuff confined to about 3 minutes or so. I don't want to clutter the PNW thread with my stuff but here is a video if you want to watch it. Skip ahead to 2 min for the best part if you want.

 

 .. So, to what do you attribute the more noteworthy level of precip., in this short time .. Derrick. 

 

— I was looking at the somewhat odd direction that sub-tropical moisture generated recently, has been being directed: some further north than usual, some more northeast to where you are. This with also the more specific topography right there more close-in to where you are; .. these ideas along together with some different elements of what I study mainly, i.e. colder air's movement looked at together with more general distribution, more year-round.

 

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=3461&eocn=image&eoci=related_image

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=4597

[Black Hole]

Although there was very heavy precip throughout the valley this seemed particularly heavy compared to anybody else. Looking at the weather service page where they noted various reports of rain and wind I had the second highest precip total and second highest wind gust in the area. So for the two together I had the highest combo.

 

Anyway assuming it was as localized as I believe it was, I think the microburst was basically right overhead which is why it was so dramatic but not so once you got away from my area.

 

I really have never seen anything comparable here so I assume it was quite rare.

 

I will also add that the radar returns did not reflect the true rain rate. This was probably because of the very low cloud base which allowed precipitation growth nearly all the way to the ground. The strong winds were from a little downdraft cape that was present ahead of the line.

[richard mann]

-

.. I see. 

[Black Hole]

 

-

.. I see. 

 

I answered your questions.

[Phil]

Definitely a microburst. They're fascinating phenomenon, that's for sure...actually have been known to bring winds over 165mph. Official microburst wind record is 150mph, at AFB near Washington DC, occurring just a few minutes after Ronald Reagan landed there: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/cae/svrwx/downburst.htm

 

They can be detected easily on vertical-integrated liquid scans too, so next time you see a storm around, look for high values.

 

We've had some rough microbursts here in recent years too. The June 29th, 2012 Derecho was full of imbedded microbursts, one of which slammed me with a 127mph wind. Scariest moment of my life

[richard mann]

I answered your questions.

 

Right. Just acknowledging your thoughts. 

 

I see, on all counts. 

[Dan the Weatherman]

 

Not as much as you would think since the storm started and stopped within 10 minutes. So I got .51" in that time with the really crazy stuff confined to about 3 minutes or so. I don't want to clutter the PNW thread with my stuff but here is a video if you want to watch it. Skip ahead to 2 min for the best part if you want.

 

Black Hole, that was quite a squall line that came through your area, even if it didn't last long. It was good to see some much-needed rain in your area.

[Black Hole]

Black Hole, that was quite a squall line that came through your area, even if it didn't last long. It was good to see some much-needed rain in your area.

We had another inch of rain today with quarter sized hail. But it was highly localized to just a couple miles around my house. Of course I wasn't here at the time but still kind of cool.

[Black Hole]

pic.twitter.com/aRcj7gfMHx

 

You can see a pic I took later from some that my Mom saved in the freezer for me

[Black Hole]

Definitely a microburst. They're fascinating phenomenon, that's for sure...actually have been known to bring winds over 165mph. Official microburst wind record is 150mph, at AFB near Washington DC, occurring just a few minutes after Ronald Reagan landed there: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/cae/svrwx/downburst.htm

 

They can be detected easily on vertical-integrated liquid scans too, so next time you see a storm around, look for high values.

 

We've had some rough microbursts here in recent years too. The June 29th, 2012 Derecho was full of imbedded microbursts, one of which slammed me with a 127mph wind. Scariest moment of my life

Nice, and thanks. Yes, we do get microbursts out west fairly often...but wet microbursts are very rare.