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I've had exactly 1.00" of rain the last two days, which is pretty good for around here. Looks like more showers moving in the next couple of hours too. Not a good chance of rain the next few days, but probably some storms at times. Sunday night looks promising.

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Ended up with 10" here. We're pretty buried here at this point as you can see. In town Nordic trails are AMAZING with about a 20" base now.  http://i68.tinypic.com/16ii8ud.jpghttp://i63.tinypic.com/15

A friend of mine took this while flying into SLC yesterday. This is over the Great Salt Lake. 

Stunning sunset here tonight.

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Nice, what are you doing there? I am sure you will see something.

 

Chance of storms tonight, but then storms likely Mon-Tue.

 

Just a road trip with my fiancee to see the Rockies and Calgary. The Great Can-Am road trip. Seems like the NWS has an outlook for some convective energy between Spokane and Kalispell on Saturday-Sunday.

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Just a road trip with my fiancee to see the Rockies and Calgary. The Great Can-Am road trip. Seems like the NWS has an outlook for some convective energy between Spokane and Kalispell on Saturday-Sunday.

Good luck and have fun.

 

A little warmer and dry through Saturday but another huge monsoonal push is coming. Looks like another heavy dose of rain/storms Sunday-Tuesday.

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You must have had an incredibly heavy downpour to generate those kinds of numbers! How much rain did you receive after the storm passed?

Not as much as you would think since the storm started and stopped within 10 minutes. So I got .51" in that time with the really crazy stuff confined to about 3 minutes or so. I don't want to clutter the PNW thread with my stuff but here is a video if you want to watch it. Skip ahead to 2 min for the best part if you want.

 

 .. So, to what do you attribute the more noteworthy level of precip., in this short time .. Derrick. 

 

I was looking at the somewhat odd direction that sub-tropical moisture generated recently, has been being directed: some further north than usual, some more northeast to where you are. This with also the more specific topography right there more close-in to where you are; .. these ideas along together with some different elements of what I study mainly, i.e. colder air's movement looked at together with more general distribution, more year-round.

 

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=3461&eocn=image&eoci=related_image

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=4597

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Although there was very heavy precip throughout the valley this seemed particularly heavy compared to anybody else. Looking at the weather service page where they noted various reports of rain and wind I had the second highest precip total and second highest wind gust in the area. So for the two together I had the highest combo.

 

Anyway assuming it was as localized as I believe it was, I think the microburst was basically right overhead which is why it was so dramatic but not so once you got away from my area.

 

I really have never seen anything comparable here so I assume it was quite rare.

 

I will also add that the radar returns did not reflect the true rain rate. This was probably because of the very low cloud base which allowed precipitation growth nearly all the way to the ground. The strong winds were from a little downdraft cape that was present ahead of the line.

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Definitely a microburst. They're fascinating phenomenon, that's for sure...actually have been known to bring winds over 165mph. Official microburst wind record is 150mph, at AFB near Washington DC, occurring just a few minutes after Ronald Reagan landed there: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/cae/svrwx/downburst.htm

 

They can be detected easily on vertical-integrated liquid scans too, so next time you see a storm around, look for high values.

 

We've had some rough microbursts here in recent years too. The June 29th, 2012 Derecho was full of imbedded microbursts, one of which slammed me with a 127mph wind. Scariest moment of my life

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Not as much as you would think since the storm started and stopped within 10 minutes. So I got .51" in that time with the really crazy stuff confined to about 3 minutes or so. I don't want to clutter the PNW thread with my stuff but here is a video if you want to watch it. Skip ahead to 2 min for the best part if you want.

 

Black Hole, that was quite a squall line that came through your area, even if it didn't last long. It was good to see some much-needed rain in your area.

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Black Hole, that was quite a squall line that came through your area, even if it didn't last long. It was good to see some much-needed rain in your area.

We had another inch of rain today with quarter sized hail. But it was highly localized to just a couple miles around my house. Of course I wasn't here at the time but still kind of cool.

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Definitely a microburst. They're fascinating phenomenon, that's for sure...actually have been known to bring winds over 165mph. Official microburst wind record is 150mph, at AFB near Washington DC, occurring just a few minutes after Ronald Reagan landed there: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/cae/svrwx/downburst.htm

 

They can be detected easily on vertical-integrated liquid scans too, so next time you see a storm around, look for high values.

 

We've had some rough microbursts here in recent years too. The June 29th, 2012 Derecho was full of imbedded microbursts, one of which slammed me with a 127mph wind. Scariest moment of my life

Nice, and thanks. Yes, we do get microbursts out west fairly often...but wet microbursts are very rare.

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I am at 2.71" for August which is way above normal. The weather service office is probably on average a little drier than me and they average .78" in August. So if we use it anyway that puts me at roughly 350% of normal.

 

More light showers in the area today but we are expecting a good soaking Friday into Saturday with more rain possible next Monday night. I bet I have about 3-3.5" or so by months end.

 

July was also above normal with 1.28" at my house, airport average .70".

 

For the year I am at 15.42", the weather service averages 15.73" on the year. So With quite a bit of time left I could be well above normal there too. 

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I am at 2.71" for August which is way above normal. The weather service office is probably on average a little drier than me and they average .78" in August. So if we use it anyway that puts me at roughly 350% of normal.

 

More light showers in the area today but we are expecting a good soaking Friday into Saturday with more rain possible next Monday night. I bet I have about 3-3.5" or so by months end.

 

July was also above normal with 1.28" at my house, airport average .70".

 

For the year I am at 15.42", the weather service averages 15.73" on the year. So With quite a bit of time left I could be well above normal there too. 

That's good news, given how dry the winter was.

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I am at 2.71" for August which is way above normal. The weather service office is probably on average a little drier than me and they average .78" in August. So if we use it anyway that puts me at roughly 350% of normal.

 

More light showers in the area today but we are expecting a good soaking Friday into Saturday with more rain possible next Monday night. I bet I have about 3-3.5" or so by months end.

 

July was also above normal with 1.28" at my house, airport average .70".

 

For the year I am at 15.42", the weather service averages 15.73" on the year. So With quite a bit of time left I could be well above normal there too. 

You have done pretty well for the year so far, and have received more precipitation (liquid equivalent or otherwise) than San Francisco had during the 2013-14 (July 1 - June 30) season as they only totaled 12.54". I am assuming that your total is for the calendar year from January 1 to the present.

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You have done pretty well for the year so far, and have received more precipitation (liquid equivalent or otherwise) than San Francisco had during the 2013-14 (July 1 - June 30) season as they only totaled 12.54". I am assuming that your total is for the calendar year from January 1 to the present.

Yeah Jan 1 to present. And its nice because we really did need it. Mountain areas have done well too so hopefully this helps you guys out down the road as it drains into the Colorado.

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What is the average total precip for August for your area?

The airport average is .69, so although I think I am on average a little wetter it probably isn't much. Lets just use that, that would then put me at about 500% of normal for the month.

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The airport average is .69, so although I think I am on average a little wetter it probably isn't much. Lets just use that, that would then put me at about 500% of normal for the month.

Wow, you have had quite a good month as far as rainfall goes. Hopefully this means that a much better winter is ahead for the West in general, but that is certainly not a guarantee, as active summer patterns don't necessarily lead to more active winter patterns.

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Wow, you have had quite a good month as far as rainfall goes. Hopefully this means that a much better winter is ahead for the West in general, but that is certainly not a guarantee, as active summer patterns don't necessarily lead to more active winter patterns.

 

Well if nothing else it should help to raise water levels both here and downstream. I do think that an active monsoon resembles the older el nino patterns that often had wet winters to follow with an active STJ. So although its hard to say, I think odds favor a wetter winter for that reason...and because its been a while since we both have seen one.

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Well if nothing else it should help to raise water levels both here and downstream. I do think that an active monsoon resembles the older el nino patterns that often had wet winters to follow with an active STJ. So although its hard to say, I think odds favor a wetter winter for that reason...and because its been a while since we both have seen one.

I agree with you that the odds of a wetter winter are better this year, especially with the PDO being positive for much of this year so far. Hopefully the PDO remains positive going into the fall and winter.

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We had a thunderstorm this morning with .09" then another shower in the afternoon, for a while it was blue sky overhead which was fun. Another shower approaching now.

 

Big surge of monsoonal moisture coming up from the south. Probably going to see some serious rain in the south with several inches possible. Up here it looks wet but much less so. Probably more storms and less just heavy rain.

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Hi Black Hole. I am a long-time reader of this weather forum and some other weather forums though I don't post often. I enjoy studying the weather and its many aspects. I have a question for you regarding this upcoming weather this Fall and Winter. Do you think the same as some meteorologists when it comes to super early (perhaps record-breaking) start to snow season?

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Hi Black Hole. I am a long-time reader of this weather forum and some other weather forums though I don't post often. I enjoy studying the weather and its many aspects. I have a question for you regarding this upcoming weather this Fall and Winter. Do you think the same as some meteorologists when it comes to super early (perhaps record-breaking) start to snow season?

You should post more often! I would love to have somebody else who lives here to talk with.

 

As far as this fall/winter I think that it should be said first that nobody knows for sure. However el nino climatology suggests that an early start to fall/winter is more likely than not. Therefore I agree with the general prognosis that we may see an early start this year. I certainly hope we do!

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How early can you get snow in the valley?

We are already in snow season technically. The earliest accumulating snow on record was on the 16th or 18th of this month, 2". One computer model earlier showed borderline snow next week actually, although I doubt it happens its nice to see.

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I wish other people posted in here!!!

 

Possible big and cold storm for this next weekend. Early estimates would be .50-.75" of water and snow down to 8-9k feet.

Maybe some of these subforums that don't have too many people posting need to be combined to form a larger region with more members so that there is more activity. Then later on if the membership grows and there are a sizable number of people in each region, then they can be split once again.

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Maybe some of these subforums that don't have too many people posting need to be combined to form a larger region with more members so that there is more activity. Then later on if the membership grows and there are a sizable number of people in each region, then they can be split once again.

 

We'll see. The downside with a larger group is that new members tend not to post when all they see is "Seattle Weather".

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We'll see. The downside with a larger group is that new members tend not to post when all they see is "Seattle Weather".

I don't think the Pacific Northwest subforum needs to be combined with any other subforum, since it is large enough to stand alone. I was thinking more of having the Mountain West and Desert SW in one subforum merged for example, and possibly other areas adjacent to one another in which one subforum is used much less than the other.

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