2020/2021 California and Southwest Weather Discussion Thread

[Reg1992 221]

Overcast here as well, kept temperatures warmer than normal overnight. 

[Mr Marine Layer 1421]

Overcast and chilly all day long today.

[Reg1992 221]

Very hazy today. Can't even see the Santa Ana Mountains even though they're right there.

[Mr Marine Layer 1421]

Our chances for rain have pretty much gone away. Not a surprise.

[Mr Marine Layer 1421]

Some drizzle or light rain is falling. The ground is wet.

[Mr Marine Layer 1421]

Already a deep marine layer this morning.

[Mr Marine Layer 1421]

Low clouds spreading inland as the day goes on.

[Thunder98 497]

Just party cloudy and windy for much of this upcoming week. Spring is here early this year.

[Mr Marine Layer 1421]

 Boring weather continues for the foreseeable future here.

[Mr Marine Layer 1421]

Random low clouds hung around today, although there were not too many. Looks like they are gone now, however.

Sea surface temperatures are falling below normal off the California coast.

[Reg1992 221]

A dry February so far, but at least it's not also an unseasonably warm one. Temperatures have been surprisingly moderate.

[Mr Marine Layer 1421]

It's a cold Santa Ana. Sun has reached above 45 degrees today.

[Reg1992 221]

Rainy season up to this point looking lackluster so far at my location in Murrieta. It is not over yet, however. March or April could possibly feature a decent storm or two and keep the 2020-21 season from ending too far below average.

[Reg1992 221]

Clear day down here in southwestern Riverside County today, but the webcam view of the Los Angeles Basin from Mount Wilson tells a different story there this afternoon.

[Mr Marine Layer 1421]

Inside slider today. It's become the norm here for winter "storms"

 

[Reg1992 221]

Much cooler today.

NWS hinting at a possible chance of precipitation as a trough swings in around March 2-3, but the rest of February looks dry.

[Mr Marine Layer 1421]

Breezy afternoon here

 

[Mr Marine Layer 1421]

No wind here. Just a bright sunny warm day.

[Reg1992 221]

No wind here either. Went for a nice walk west of Murrieta but stumbled upon a broken water pipe shooting water all over the hillside. Reported to CalFire who’ve said they’re responding to it.

 

[Reg1992 221]

There was a slight uptick in winds this afternoon, but that has already faded. Humidity has plummeted. Supposed to be much warmer tomorrow.

[Mr Marine Layer 1421]

82 in San Diego today.

[Mr Marine Layer 1421]

Always strange when Del Mar Beach and Oceanside Harbor are warmer than Palm Springs.

[Reg1992 221]

4 hours ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

82 in San Diego today.

Rare time when the coasts are warmest, it was only 71F here inland.

[Reg1992 221]

76F here right now, but areas just a couple of miles from me closer to the foothills are much warmer, over 80F already.

[Reg1992 221]

Warm again here this morning, but NWS calls for a slight chance of showers late Saturday night into Sunday morning.

Onshore flow should spread cooler temperatures tomorrow.

[Reg1992 221]

81F here today, one degree warmer than yesterday.

[Mr Marine Layer 1421]

New avatar

[Mr Marine Layer 1421]

Warm again today: mid 70s.

[Reg1992 221]

Onshore flow didn't quite kick in today as previously predicted, ended up still being warm, although not as warm as the past two days (77F here). Every day since last Wednesday has been virtually cloud-free here.

Rain chances have been removed from the forecast all together.

[Reg1992 221]

Season totals to-date are looking rather dismal, although there is still chance for even a semi-redemptive month ahead. With any precipitation through the next four days being very unlikely here, we can examine season totals up through February 28 of past rainy seasons and find ones that were similarly low or even lower.

Downtown L.A. has only 4.39 inches to date. The "average" for them by the end of February is close to 10.5 inches. Quite a deficit. Temecula's season total right now is only 4.02 inches. Since 2000, only two rainy seasons were drier up to this point in Temecula: 2001-02 (2.85" through 2-28-2002) and 2006-07 (2.88" through 2-28-2007). Other similar totals were 4.32" by 2-28-2014, and 4.60" by 2-28-2018. My season total is lower (3.35") as I'm just far enough into the valley away from surrounding foothills and mountains that tend to boost rainfall totals for places like southern Temecula.

Even a single good storm (1-2 inches or higher) or more in March or April could prevent the current season's totals from ending terribly low, but it's practically a roll of the dice. What happens (or doesn't) in March will be very important for our season.

[Reg1992 221]

Santa Anas kicked up in the middle of the night, immediately ratcheting up temperatures at my weather station. Highlighted here.

[Mr Marine Layer 1421]

Still a relatively cool Santa Ana with Palm Springs barely reaching 70.

[Reg1992 221]

Temperature got down to 36F here this morning, the coldest of the month so far.

[Dan the Weatherman 388]

On 2/24/2021 at 7:15 PM, Reg1992 said:

Season totals to-date are looking rather dismal, although there is still chance for even a semi-redemptive month ahead. With any precipitation through the next four days being very unlikely here, we can examine season totals up through February 28 of past rainy seasons and find ones that were similarly low or even lower.

Downtown L.A. has only 4.39 inches to date. The "average" for them by the end of February is close to 10.5 inches. Quite a deficit. Temecula's season total right now is only 4.02 inches. Since 2000, only two rainy seasons were drier up to this point in Temecula: 2001-02 (2.85" through 2-28-2002) and 2006-07 (2.88" through 2-28-2007). Other similar totals were 4.32" by 2-28-2014, and 4.60" by 2-28-2018. My season total is lower (3.35") as I'm just far enough into the valley away from surrounding foothills and mountains that tend to boost rainfall totals for places like southern Temecula.

Even a single good storm (1-2 inches or higher) or more in March or April could prevent the current season's totals from ending terribly low, but it's practically a roll of the dice. What happens (or doesn't) in March will be very important for our season.

I am really concerned by the number of what I call "ultra dry seasons" that we have experienced since 2000. I define an "ultra dry season" as a rainfall year (July 1 - June 30) in which Downtown Los Angeles receives less than 7" of rain for the season. Between 1877 and 2000, only 1898-99, 1893-94, 1923-24, 1958-59, and 1960-61 fell in that category, although there were several other drier seasons that recorded between 7" and 8". Since 2000, 2001-02, 2006-07, 2012-13, 2013-14, and 2017-18 have been all "ultra dry seasons", and if we don't receive much more rain this season, 2020-21 will become the next "ultra dry season". 

To summarize, we had only 5 "ultra dry seasons" between 1877 and 2000, but we have already had 5 since 2000, and possibly going on 6 if conditions don't improve soon!

[Mr Marine Layer 1421]

Onshore flow kicked in this afternoon with a cool breeze.

 

[Reg1992 221]

3 hours ago, Dan the Weatherman said:

I am really concerned by the number of what I call "ultra dry seasons" that we have experienced since 2000. I define an "ultra dry season" as a rainfall year (July 1 - June 30) in which Downtown Los Angeles receives less than 7" of rain for the season. Between 1877 and 2000, only 1898-99, 1893-94, 1923-24, 1958-59, and 1960-61 fell in that category, although there were several other drier seasons that recorded between 7" and 8". Since 2000, 2001-02, 2006-07, 2012-13, 2013-14, and 2017-18 have been all "ultra dry seasons", and if we don't receive much more rain this season, 2020-21 will become the next "ultra dry season". 

To summarize, we had only 5 "ultra dry seasons" between 1877 and 2000, but we have already had 5 since 2000, and possibly going on 6 if conditions don't improve soon!

Dry seasons have been even drier in the last 20 years, I agree. That applied to wet rainy seasons from the late 1960s through the late 1990s as well, but not since, except for 2004-05. That was our last banner rain year.

42 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Onshore flow kicked in this afternoon with a cool breeze.

Humidity still low here.

Walked out near Bear Creek in the northwestern corner of Murrieta on Monday, at the bottom of the Santa Rosa Plateau. This entire area went up in flames during a wildfire in August 2019. It has begun recovering modestly since then.

And today in a different area, south of Murrieta. One of the few areas surrounding the valley that has not yet burned in recent years. Some greenery at the bottom, although the creek was completely dry.