Gradient Keeper Posted December 13, 2023 Report Share Posted December 13, 2023 Day 7 (4-run trend) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 13, 2023 Report Share Posted December 13, 2023 Just now, Gradient Keeper said: Day 7 (4-run trend) Big difference. Looks much more like the recent GEM solutions with an open trough and no cut-off low. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 13, 2023 Report Share Posted December 13, 2023 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: Big difference. Looks much more like the recent GEM solutions with an open trough and no cut-off low. Indeed, Tim. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 13, 2023 Report Share Posted December 13, 2023 Day 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 13, 2023 Report Share Posted December 13, 2023 850s pretty cold north Washington Cascades 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 13, 2023 Report Share Posted December 13, 2023 3 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: Indeed, Tim. If 00Z ECMWF goes this way then it's Canada for the win! 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 13, 2023 Report Share Posted December 13, 2023 Day 9'er Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 13, 2023 Report Share Posted December 13, 2023 This run transitions from El Nino to something more resembling La Nina.... Nice. 00z ECMWF in 1 hour 10 minutes 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 13, 2023 Report Share Posted December 13, 2023 2 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said: VUO is a long term station, and it has been jacked up pretty royally at times over the years, for extended periods. Both on the warm side and the bad side. Also I just don’t think your explanation really holds water. They are really going to perform so vastly different every night there’s radiational cooling, compared to how they have behaved for decades, because of some subtle change in offshore flow tendencies this year? I think OLM has had trouble getting dry in place this season due to a lot of instances of weak northerly gradients, which have failed to punch north winds that far south, instead of strong offshore flow. Usually when we get blasted with east wind here they are really cold. This year there just hasn't been any east wind at all here. I think there is some correlation. 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 13, 2023 Report Share Posted December 13, 2023 1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said: This run transitions from El Nino to something more resembling La Nina.... Nice. 00z ECMWF in 1 hour 10 minutes I'm pretty encouraged by the ECMWF weeklies and GEFS extended both showing some potential in January. Maybe the models are starting to factor in possible influence from the SSW the ECMWF has been advertising very late this month. 4 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 13, 2023 Report Share Posted December 13, 2023 Day 10 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 13, 2023 Report Share Posted December 13, 2023 1 minute ago, snow_wizard said: I think OLM has had trouble getting dry in place this season due to a lot of instances of weak northerly gradients, which have failed to punch north winds that far south, instead of strong offshore flow. Usually when we get blasted with east wind here they are really cold. This year there just hasn't been any east wind at all here. I think there is some correlation. Also interesting that there has been lots of east wind here in the last couple months. I know it comes down to the angle of the flow through the passes for central and south King County. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 13, 2023 Report Share Posted December 13, 2023 Just now, snow_wizard said: I'm pretty encouraged by the ECMWF weeklies and GEFS extended both showing some potential in January. Maybe the models are starting to factor in possible influence from the SSW the ECMWF has been advertising very late this month. Yep! It's going to be AWESOME! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted December 13, 2023 Report Share Posted December 13, 2023 1 minute ago, snow_wizard said: I think OLM has had trouble getting dry in place this season due to a lot of instances of weak northerly gradients, which have failed to punch north winds that far south, instead of strong offshore flow. Usually when we get blasted with east wind here they are really cold. This year there just hasn't been any east wind at all here. I think there is some correlation. I’m just not seeing that as a sufficient explanation for the sudden sea change in their radiational prowess within the last month and a half, which has encompassed a variety of flavors of dry weather/offshore flow patterns. 3 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 13, 2023 Report Share Posted December 13, 2023 2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Also interesting that there has been lots of east wind here in the last couple months. I know it comes down to the angle of the flow through the passes for central and south King County. Indeed. The gradient angle is everything. When you get east winds there is a little bit of southerly component to the surface gradient. When I do there is a little bit of northerly component. When it gets windy here that dry air easily shunts down to the South Sound. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 13, 2023 Report Share Posted December 13, 2023 4 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said: I’m just not seeing that as a sufficient explanation for the sudden sea change in their radiational prowess within the last month and a half, which has encompassed a variety of flavors of dry weather/offshore flow patterns. You could be right. On the other hand, last night they had sopping wet air and it was never able to clear out. That resulted in their min being very mild. 3 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted December 13, 2023 Report Share Posted December 13, 2023 Still froggy 36* 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 13, 2023 Report Share Posted December 13, 2023 7 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: Yep! It's going to be AWESOME! As some have mentioned on here...It would be incredibly ironic if a strong Nino finally gets the January monkey off our back. 8 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CliffMassYelledAtMe Posted December 13, 2023 Report Share Posted December 13, 2023 30 minutes ago, RentonHill said: Saving this Right after MLK Day, huh? Who was calling for that? 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted December 13, 2023 Report Share Posted December 13, 2023 1 minute ago, snow_wizard said: You could be right. On the other hand, last night they had sopping wet air and it was never able to clear out. That resulted in their min being very mild. A station error could also explain that. I’ve seen them get pretty chilly pretty frequently in the past despite low clouds/fog/high humidity, etc. “Something’s up this year” definitely feels more fun though. 1 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 13, 2023 Report Share Posted December 13, 2023 1 minute ago, Blizzard777 said: Still froggy 36* 34 here. The fog has gotten shallow enough that you can see the stars above. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 13, 2023 Report Share Posted December 13, 2023 00z GFS re-cap. 10 Day GIFs: 500mb Height Anomaly, 850mb Temps, 1000-500mb Thickness/MSLP/Precip 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 13, 2023 Report Share Posted December 13, 2023 00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 13, 2023 Report Share Posted December 13, 2023 The GFS has a fair run of decently chilly weather during week 2. Below normal 850s for 5 or 6 days. 6 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crf450ish Posted December 13, 2023 Report Share Posted December 13, 2023 1 hour ago, Snownerd3000 said: Back loaded winter here we come Isn't that the case around here every year? Other than a few outliers? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skywatcher Posted December 13, 2023 Report Share Posted December 13, 2023 18 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: 34 here. The fog has gotten shallow enough that you can see the stars above 35 at mine. Fog's cleared out, visibility is once again crisp and the stars are out. So are the planes on approach to SeaTac. Welcome sight after the super low-vis fog earlier this evening, driving was a little fun in that. 1 Quote Shred it! Greater Maple Valley area @ ~550' AGL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted December 13, 2023 Report Share Posted December 13, 2023 Meanwhile OLM sitting at a Tonga/GLAAM/UJEAS driven 42 with clear skies. 1 1 1 1 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 13, 2023 Report Share Posted December 13, 2023 3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said: Meanwhile OLM sitting at a Tonga/GLAAM/UJEAS driven 42 with clear skies. Overcast with mist maybe? 1 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted December 13, 2023 Author Report Share Posted December 13, 2023 TOUCHDOWN!!! 1 1 3 1 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted December 13, 2023 Author Report Share Posted December 13, 2023 Some dawgs back in there. 3 1 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 13, 2023 Report Share Posted December 13, 2023 00z ECMWF Day 1 pivotal seems to be having issues, so it's taking a bit longer. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 13, 2023 Report Share Posted December 13, 2023 Day 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 13, 2023 Report Share Posted December 13, 2023 Day 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 13, 2023 Report Share Posted December 13, 2023 Day 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 13, 2023 Report Share Posted December 13, 2023 Day 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 13, 2023 Report Share Posted December 13, 2023 Day 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 13, 2023 Report Share Posted December 13, 2023 Day 7 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 13, 2023 Report Share Posted December 13, 2023 Day 8 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 13, 2023 Report Share Posted December 13, 2023 Day 9'er 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted December 13, 2023 Report Share Posted December 13, 2023 Reports of hail/graupel at 34 degrees in South Hill? Dry and haven’t left heavy fog all day. 2 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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