December 2023 Weather in the PNW

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

[Gradient Keeper]

Well that run was not great and nothing like the GFS or GEM(Canadian)

00z ECMWF re-cap. 10 Day GIFs: 500mb Height Anomaly, 850mb Temps, 1000-500mb Thickness/MSLP/Precip

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[Front Ranger]

2 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

As some have mentioned on here...It would be incredibly ironic if a strong Nino finally gets the January monkey off our back.

Jan 1998 on performance enhancing pharmaceuticals!

[Gradient Keeper]

Meanwhile the east wind is absolutely raging east of I-205 tonight. I just had my first "WOW" gust of the season as it roared over my house and through the trees. I see the Gorge/Gap gradients continue to strengthen now with PDX-DLS over -8mb exceeding model projections. Anytime the gradient is at or above -8mb that's when the east wind really begins to blast areas east of I-205.

[Cascadia_Wx]

18 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Meanwhile the east wind is absolutely raging east of I-205 tonight. I just had my first "WOW" gust of the season as it roared over my house and through the trees. I see the Gorge/Gap gradients continue to strengthen now with PDX-DLS over -8mb exceeding model projections. Anytime the gradient is at or above -8mb that's when the east wind really begins to blast areas east of I-205.

Yeah. Definitely the gustiest east wind night of the winter here so far too. Wind has been slamming against the back door and porch for the last few hours.

[Deweydog]

31 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Yeah. Definitely the gustiest east wind night of the winter here so far too. Wind has been slamming against the back door and porch for the last few hours.

Same here, Jesseratonin Reuptake Inhibitor. First night this winter it’s sound like a FREIGHT TRAIN rolling through the mature maples.

[smerfylicious]

Blow Bar living up to its name tonight!

I prefer the GFS solution. I may be in the minority here. I'm sure Randy will be very disappointed in it.

[Ken in Wood Village]

The 06Z GFS looks very interesting 🌧🌨

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Almost 50 at PDX. 

[TT-SEA]

Power is out here this morning and they are saying it won't be restored until 2 p.m.    All of North Bend is down.   It's not even that windy here but maybe it was bad in the valley.   Based on what is being reported down in Portland it might have been the same up here in places lower than my area.    Before the North Bend weather site went down at 1:40 a.m. the peak gust was 34 mph down there.    We rarely have any issues with the east wind.  But given the large area that is out all the way to Snoqualmie Pass and the long restoration time it might be a transmission line issue.  

[TT-SEA]

00Z EPS was basically unchanged from previous runs.   It will be interesting to see if the GFS goes back to the cut off solution or if the ECMWF/EPS start to cave today. 

[TT-SEA]

Also interesting and very strange that it was windy enough out here to knock out the power but SEA was stuck in fog all night.   Usually when the east wind is that strong out here it reaches SEA.      

[TT-SEA]

Power just came back on... very nice. to be way earlier than estimated.

[TT-SEA]

Fog free in Seattle this morning. 

[Phishy Wx]

HAHAHAHAHAHAH

 

 

 

[The Blob]

The sunrise!!!

[T-Town]

Pretty. 

[TT-SEA]

[Phil]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Also interesting and very strange that it was windy enough out here to knock out the power but SEA was stuck in fog all night.   Usually when the east wind is that strong out here it reaches SEA.      

Why is PNW power infrastructure so gawdawful?

[TT-SEA]

Fog finally cleared at SEA as well.   You can see the Olympics now.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

20 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

HAHAHAHAHAHAH

 

 

 

When will Judah start posting about his “machine learning model” saying otherwise?

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, Phil said:

Why is PNW power infrastructure so gawdawful?

Our power grid out here is really good now.    This was an unusual exception for our area.    Ever since the big outage in 2006 its been very solid.    They rebuilt all of our infrastructure out here after that windstorm.    The only time we have been out for more than a short time since then has been due to ice... and it's almost impossible to protect against ice storms.    Wind almost never causes problems here.

[SnowySeeker50]

Low of 31 this morning. Fog has already mostly cleared yet.

[MossMan]

29 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

HAHAHAHAHAHAH

 

 

 

Phil will be right with you and Eric Webb. 

[RentonHill]

13 minutes ago, Phil said:

Why is PNW power infrastructure so gawdawful?

It’s really just Randy who seems to live in the 1800s in terms of power failures

[MossMan]

12 minutes ago, Phil said:

Why is PNW power infrastructure so gawdawful?

Because we have actual trees, not twigs. 
Except for my special spindly Sick Phil  

Lovely sunrise this AM. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

It’s really just Randy who seems to live in the 1800s in terms of power failures

Randy's area does seem to be particularly bad in terms of infrastructure (i.e. power, internet, etc).    But he likes it that way.   He is a survivalist at heart!  

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

You don't cover your pool in the winter?

[ShawniganLake]

29 minutes ago, Phil said:

Why is PNW power infrastructure so gawdawful?

Trees and wind!

[TT-SEA]

Looks like the 12Z GFS is trending back towards the cut off low solution for next week.

[ShawniganLake]

11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Randy's area does seem to be particularly bad in terms of infrastructure (i.e. power, internet, etc).    But he likes it that way.   He is a survivalist at heart!  

When I lived in town (Duncan) for 8 years our longest power outage was 1.5hours.  Shawnigan lake is pretty rural and power outages most often last much longer here

[ShawniganLake]

55 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

HAHAHAHAHAHAH

 

 

 

My early January call is looking good  

[RentonHill]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Looks like the 12Z GFS is trending back towards the cut off low solution for next week.

I bet it and the euro trend it back a little bit towards us slowly each run going forward but never put it all the way back. 

[Timmy Supercell]

44 minutes ago, Phil said:

Why is PNW power infrastructure so gawdawful?

It depends what areas and neighborhoods you're at. For some reason outages happened most frequently in Washington County (but the outages themselves would be short lived). They had underground lines.

Still can happen on a frequent level in very rural neighborhoods, grandma's place in the Falcon Heights area of Klamath Falls would get one on a near monthly basis but my house in downtown K-Falls would only once a year have an outage.. it also took stronger winds to knock it out compared to Hillsboro which was another curious observation. HIO was a more populated area. lol

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS sinks the cut off low so far south that an open trough is able to come down from the north later next week.  The 12Z GFS yesterday showed this as well.  This feature gets washed out on the ECMWF/EPS runs.    

[TT-SEA]

12Z GEM now looking very much like the 00Z ECMWF.   

[Phishy Wx]

25 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

My early January call is looking good  

I was originally eyeing the 2nd half of Jan.  good call however.  Hopefully it happens

[Phishy Wx]

I'm glad to be in a newer neighborhood with underground utilities.  of course that doesn't matter if a transformer or other above ground infrastructure upstream blows up