May 2024 Pacific Northwest Weather

[TT-SEA]

Lovely morning in Seattle.  

[Cascadia_Wx]

As for the mid to long range, at least consensus seems to be building on a marine push of some sort late next weekend/early next week, between the two heatwaves.

[MossMan]

Still raining! 

.08” so far on the day, 1.16” since yesterday late morning. 

Edited May 6 by MossMan

[Phil]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

So is a car crash.   I can think of lots of extreme things that are stressors.  

I’ve never felt stressed by “gloomy” weather.

Shortening days in the fall do trigger my SAD. But that has more to do w/ my circadian rhythm, doesn’t matter how sunny/cloudy it is.

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’ve never felt stressed by “gloomy” weather.

Shortening days in the fall do trigger my SAD. But that has more to do w/ my circadian rhythm, doesn’t matter how sunny/cloudy it is.

Can you please not feed the trolls  

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

As for the mid to long range, at least consensus seems to be building on a marine push of some sort late next weekend/early next week, between the two heatwaves.

Ridge axis may slide into the GOA during the second half of the +TNH/+PNA cycle but it won’t break down until the last week of the month. Clean response to MJO and seasonal dynamics.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, Phil said:

Ridge axis may slide into the GOA during the second half of the +TNH/+PNA cycle but it won’t break down until the last week of the month. Clean response to MJO and seasonal dynamics.

A GOA ridge axis would probably give us a seasonably warm day/cool nights setup which is much better than a ridge directly overhead with endless 80s/90s

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’ve never felt stressed by “gloomy” weather.

Shortening days in the fall do trigger my SAD. But that has more to do w/ my circadian rhythm, doesn’t matter how sunny/cloudy it is.

Exciting stuff.  

[MossMan]

Just now, Phil said:

I’ve never felt stressed by “gloomy” weather.

Shortening days in the fall do trigger my SAD. But that has more to do w/ my circadian rhythm, doesn’t matter how sunny/cloudy it is.

Back in my younger days, which were the olden days of the 1980’s to early 90’s, January thru March were awful for me. The only bright spots would be if we had snow. I was addicted to fishing as a kid and all I could think about was getting to April…Opening day of fishing season! But I hated school, and those dark wet days just seem to drag on forever!

This forum back then would have been huge to get me through. Instead it was playing a lot of Mario on the original Nintendo. 

 

[Phil]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

A GOA ridge axis would probably give us a seasonably warm day/cool nights setup which is much better than a ridge directly overhead with endless 80s/90s

GOA ridge, but close enough to the BC/PNW coast to maintain the warm/dry regime above the residual STJ (niño elements remain in the system state for now).

After the ~ 25th (+/- a few days) we shake up the tropical forcing sufficiently to break down the +TNH/ridge tendency, but still not much westerly momentum fluxed poleward at that point, so won’t be as anomalously wet as the last week has been. But maybe that will change in June, we’ll see.

[Phil]

The modeled soundings for OKC are legitimately scary. Prayers for folks living out there, going to be a rough evening. I love severe weather but would be nervous as hell if I lived there. 

Only potential failure mode I see is if storms go linear too quickly. But that just increases the wind/hail thread for a larger area.

[TT-SEA]

At least a May 1962 repeat seems to be off the table for another year.    That month was pretty much wall-to-wall rain and chilly temps.

[Slushy Inch]

EPS from last night now shows the future ridge eroding a bit more quickly.

[MossMan]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

At least a May 1962 repeat seems to be off the table for another year.    That month was pretty much wall-to-wall rain and chilly temps.

Think I remember my 5yr old self hating that month! 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, MossMan said:

Think I remember my 5yr old self hating that month! 

You were born in 1957?  

[ShawniganLake]

Sunny and breezy this morning.  Weekend rain total amounted to 0.02” here. 

[Phil]

8 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Back in my younger days, which were the olden days of the 1980’s to early 90’s, January thru March were awful for me. The only bright spots would be if we had snow. I was addicted to fishing as a kid and all I could think about was getting to April…Opening day of fishing season! But I hated school, and those dark wet days just seem to drag on forever!

This forum back then would have been huge to get me through. Instead it was playing a lot of Mario on the original Nintendo. 

 

But why not autumn months when days are getting shorter? Cloudy days in the spring have never bothered me because of increasing daylight and higher UV doses even under cloud cover.

Autumn is the absolute worst though. Mostly boring wx, stagnant, days getting shorter. And so many fuckin mosquitos and spiders. Worst time of year by far.

[ShawniganLake]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

You were born in 1957?  

He has a young kid for someone pushing 70

[MossMan]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

You were born in 1957?  

I read that as 82  Guess I shouldn’t post and make the kids breakfast at the same time! How was May of 82? 

Edited May 6 by MossMan

[Phil]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

At least a May 1962 repeat seems to be off the table for another year.    That month was pretty much wall-to-wall rain and chilly temps.

I’d do immoral things for a summer pattern like the 1960s. Such an amazing decade of weather.

Every winter was -NAO (and 8/10 were -PNA/-TNH). Summers were cool/stormy, heatwaves brief. The globe was cooling, Indo-West Pacific Warm Pool shrinking. Good times.

[Phil]

Just now, MossMan said:

I read that as 82 Guess I shouldn’t post and make the kids breakfast at the same time!

Are you wearing your glasses?

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I read that as 82  Guess I shouldn’t post and make the kids breakfast at the same time! How was May of 82? 

Surprisingly decent.   

[ShawniganLake]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Surprisingly decent.   

The following winter was a disaster though.   

[MossMan]

10 minutes ago, Phil said:

Are you wearing your glasses?

I am!! 

[ShawniganLake]

14 minutes ago, Phil said:

But why not autumn months when days are getting shorter? Cloudy days in the spring have never bothered me because of increasing daylight and higher UV doses even under cloud cover.

Autumn is the absolute worst though. Mostly boring wx, stagnant, days getting shorter. And so many f***** mosquitos and spiders. Worst time of year by far.

Shocking we haven’t got everyone on the same page in regards to this stuff, especially after all these years.
 

 I look forward to the arrival of fall storm season.  Cold wet springs can seemingly carry on forever, but it’s been awhile since we’ve had one of those here. 

[Front Ranger]

12 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Yes... overall its been decent.   The last couple weeks have been crappy though.    Par for the course.  There are probably 1 or 2 more periods like this coming up before we get to our annual warm/dry period.

Past couple weeks have seen the most sustained cold anomalies of the year. Though late February/early March was close, the period starting 4/24 should end up cooler for longer (with a couple more cool days today and tomorrow).

The past week has been impressively cold for this time of year, especially in OR.

 

[Phishy Wx]

had .36" yesterday

so definitely some extreme flooding in the area

[Phishy Wx]

13 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Past couple weeks have seen the most sustained cold anomalies of the year. Though late February/early March was close, the period starting 4/24 should end up cooler for longer (with a couple more cool days today and tomorrow).

The past week has been impressively cold for this time of year, especially in OR.

 

Couple weeks?  that's a 6 day period

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

had .36" yesterday

so definitely some extreme flooding in the area

Almost 3% of your annual average in one day... that is impressive.  

[Phishy Wx]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Almost 3% of your annual average in one day... that is impressive.  

forecast was for more like .6". take what we can get

[Phil]

 

[Front Ranger]

2 hours ago, Phil said:

OK/KS is gonna be wild today, wish I were chasing.

Extremely windy here last night. Definitely some powerful jet dynamics in play.

[Front Ranger]

26 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Couple weeks?  that's a 6 day period

Look at the sentence above. Separate statements...the one above the map says the past week.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Almost 3% of your annual average in one day... that is impressive.  

That would be like me getting 1.65". Except it wouldn't, because drier climates tend to have more variable precipitation amounts.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

So @TT-SEA you ignored my question for a lookup of Port Angeles Int Airport departures. I don't know how you access departures so I did a round about method. Below is the climate average for the PA airport station from 1991-2020. If you add the rain from Jan-April you land at 11.72"

 

Here is the reported YTD rain amounts circled below of 7.73". A departure of -4". You can stop gaslighting me now. 

[Skagit Weather]

10 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

So @TT-SEA you ignored my question for a lookup of Port Angeles Int Airport departures. I don't know how you access departures so I did a round about method. Below is the climate average for the PA airport station from 1991-2020. If you add the rain from Jan-April you land at 11.72"

 

Here is the reported YTD rain amounts circled below of 7.73". A departure of -4". You can stop gaslighting me now. 

You're right. The 25 year average for Port Angeles (1999-2024) for Jan 1 - May 5 is 11.91" and so far only 7.49" have fallen. Interestingly the departure is not nearly as bad for other nearby stations (such as Sequim) so the shadow must have been particularly unusual in the Port Angeles area so far this year.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

2 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

You're right. The 25 year average for Port Angeles (1999-2024) for Jan 1 - May 5 is 11.91" and so far only 7.49" have fallen. Interestingly the departure is not nearly as bad for other nearby stations (such as Sequim) so the shadow must have been particularly unusual in the Port Angeles area so far this year.

The average for Sequim is only around 5" this time of year, it only takes a few storms for them to reach that average. Similar to the East side of the state. Those big rainfalls this year missed us only 10-15 miles west of them. This over producing shadow has been a theme since June 2022 now. Hence our growing departures. Due to this, the pressure on the elwha watershed has increased as it is the primary water source for the area. Add in the decreased snow pack this year, and it looks like a long summer for us. 

[ShawniganLake]

Rainfall seems pretty close to normal across southern Vancouver island.  Snowpack was pretty low this winter so summer drought chances are increased. 

[TT-SEA]

44 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

So @TT-SEA you ignored my question for a lookup of Port Angeles Int Airport departures. I don't know how you access departures so I did a round about method. Below is the climate average for the PA airport station from 1991-2020. If you add the rain from Jan-April you land at 11.72"

 

Here is the reported YTD rain amounts circled below of 7.73". A departure of -4". You can stop gaslighting me now. 

Dude... obviously its very localized.   You are the one gaslighting me.   I never made reference to your specific area when reporting rainfall stats at stations across the region.    You were using all caps and exclamation points telling me how incredibly dry it is... but that only applies to very specific area and doesn't impact anyone else on this forum.  

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Anyone have the Euro max temp maps for Friday and Saturday? Normally would post them but pinching pennies and have suspended my WeatherBell subscription for the season.