Pacific NW August 2014 Discussion

[TT-SEA]

First time for me. Looking at Friday afternoon, worst case scenario for the Portland area is probably mid 80s, so it could certainly be worse.

Mid to upper 70s a good bet.

[TT-SEA]

Like the 00Z ECMWF.

 

Side note... GFS MOS has 81 and 83 at PDX next weekend.

[Deweydog]

6z was a step in the right direction...

[Jesse]

12Z is really nice.

[seattleweatherguy]

looks like this week and weekend are turning sunny and dry at least

[Jesse]

12z ensembles are decent too.

[Jesse]

Another big heat wave by days 9-10 on the Euro. Figured this would happen.

[Deweydog]

Oh, that pesky lil' Euro...

[Jesse]

Oh, that pesky lil' Euro...

Do you think it's on crack?

 

Maybe a ridge that insane would be enough to precipitate a long term pattern change, at least. Sometimes it seems to take an insanely amplified ridge to do that.

[Jesse]

PDX is going to be close to a top warm August *if* the Euro verifies. 1967 is a tough one to dethrone.

 

At the point they are very close to setting a new all time record Max/min for the second August in a row.

[Deweydog]

Do you think it's on crack?

 

Maybe a ridge that insane would be enough to precipitate a long term pattern change, at least. Sometimes it seems to take an insanely amplified ridge to do that.

 

Euro's had a pretty bad track record this summer in the 168+ range.  Just have to hope it's on to something this time.  

 

In the end, both models are probably way too extreme in the long range.  Not exactly an earth-shattering revelation.  

[westcoastexpat]

Hi everyone! I hope everyone has been enjoying the GORGEOUS summer weather out west this year!! I've started work as a meteorologist this summer so I have been a bit busy, but as I find winter weather tracking much more interesting, I will be back in full swing posting here in a couple months--lucky you! 

 

As to the upcoming trend... I would bank on the Euro over the GFS any day in terms of general pattern. The GFS has been abysmal recently in its med-long range forecasting. The Euro has been spot on. Any time the GFS has shown substantial cool 850s coming into the western side of the continent, it backs off and folds in favour of the aggressive warmth on the Euro. The ridge in the west-trough in the east pattern is here to stay (in general).. any SE ridging or western troughing is always short-lived. The warm equatorial Pacific waters (although not nearly as warm as initially anticipated) will not help change this pattern. And as far as I'm concerned, I'm happy to see this pattern stay!

 

I'd anticipate any significant pattern shifts not occurring until mid September.

[westcoastexpat]

Euro's had a pretty bad track record this summer in the 168+ range.  Just have to hope it's on to something this time.  

 

In the end, both models are probably way too extreme in the long range.  Not exactly an earth-shattering revelation.  

 

I disagree. It has been fantastically on point for most of the continent the last couple of months.

 

The GEM, which rocked the entire winter, has been pretty crappy.

 

The GFS is wildly inconsistent. It's like that friend in every group that you enjoy hanging out with, but could never truly rely on when it came to something important.

[Deweydog]

I disagree. It has been fantastically on point for most of the continent the last couple of months.

 

The GEM, which rocked the entire winter, has been pretty crappy.

 

The GFS is wildly inconsistent. It's like that friend in every group that you enjoy hanging out with, but could never truly rely on when it came to something important.

 

You're absolutely incorrect.  Up until 2-3 weeks ago, the Euro was for months consistently way too warm in the 7-10 day range.  Since then the roles have consistently been reversed with the GFS becoming very erratic, yes, but the last few very hot runs of the Euro again beg a little more healthy skepticism than usual. 

[Deweydog]

PDX this morning had its seventh low of 64+ for the  month.  This breaks the previous record of six set in 2004.  They may be good for another one tomorrow morning, just to drive the point home a little further.  

[Jesse]

PDX this morning had its seventh low of 64+ for the month. This breaks the previous record of six set in 2004. They may be good for another one tomorrow morning, just to drive the point home a little further.

Figured we were on the verge of setting another warmth record. Was this record just for August or any calendar month?

[Deweydog]

Figured we were on the verge of setting another warmth record. Was this record just for August or any calendar month?

 

Good question...

 

Looks like July 1996 had nine.  Still have something to shoot for!

[Phil]

Hi everyone! I hope everyone has been enjoying the GORGEOUS summer weather out west this year!! I've started work as a meteorologist this summer so I have been a bit busy, but as I find winter weather tracking much more interesting, I will be back in full swing posting here in a couple months--lucky you!

 

As to the upcoming trend... I would bank on the Euro over the GFS any day in terms of general pattern. The GFS has been abysmal recently in its med-long range forecasting. The Euro has been spot on. Any time the GFS has shown substantial cool 850s coming into the western side of the continent, it backs off and folds in favour of the aggressive warmth on the Euro. The ridge in the west-trough in the east pattern is here to stay (in general).. any SE ridging or western troughing is always short-lived. The warm equatorial Pacific waters (although not nearly as warm as initially anticipated) will not help change this pattern. And as far as I'm concerned, I'm happy to see this pattern stay!

 

I'd anticipate any significant pattern shifts not occurring until mid September.

Actually I think the ECMWF may be off...seems to turn conflating MJO forcing with CCKW activity...w/ beefy WPAC Hadley Cells and an elongated ITCZ...the NPAC SSTs don't really influence the large scale pattern anyway so I'm not worried about that

[Jesse]

Good question...

 

Looks like July 1996 had nine.  Still have something to shoot for!

 

Both 2004 and 1996 had cool Septembers. Hmmmm....

[Deweydog]

Both 2004 and 1996 had cool Septembers. Hmmmm....

Looks like we're due for a warm one. biscuits!

[Jesse]

12z EURO ensembles say that the operational was a warm outlier, from hour 144 on.

 

The ensemble mean at 240 actually looks a lot like the 12Z GFS.

[Deweydog]

12z EURO ensembles say that the operational was a warm outlier, from hour 144 on.

 

The ensemble mean at 240 actually looks a lot like the 12Z GFS.

 

Has nothing to do with what I think the weather will actually be like eight days from now, but just a word of warning about the use of ensembles this time of year.  They suck.  

[Jesse]

Has nothing to do with what I think the weather will actually be like eight days from now, but just a word of warning about the use of ensembles this time of year.  They suck.  

 

Obviously, with wavelength changes and whatnot. I'm sure that wreaks havoc. Still, they are a tool at our disposal and when the two main models are at odds I believe they can be used as somewhat of a tiebreaker.

[Deweydog]

Obviously, with wavelength changes and whatnot. I'm sure that wreaks havoc. Still, they are a tool and when the two main models are at odds I believe they can be used as somewhat of a tiebreaker.

 

Eh.  It's not really a wavelength change issue, it's just that pattern forcing is so weak this time of year it seems to make them almost irrelevant compared to typical operational chaos beyond seven days.  I suspect the Euro is going to look like an outlier compared to anything right now given the fact it is incredibly hot.  585dm thicknesses at 5am?  That doesn't happen.  

[Jesse]

Eh.  It's not really a wavelength change issue, it's just that pattern forcing is so weak this time of year it seems to make them almost irrelevant compared to typical operational chaos beyond seven days.  I suspect the Euro is going to look like an outlier compared to anything right now given the fact it is incredibly hot.  585dm thicknesses at 5am?  That doesn't happen.  

 

I've seen them come in handy more than once this summer. They lead the way when the operational runs strayed around the time of the late-July trough. Of course they are not the gospel beyond 7 days, but is any model? They are all just tools we use.

[richard mann]

.. Just a quick interjection here Jesse. 

 

Regarding what you've suggested—or appear to have—here just above where looking at the lead up to the "late-July trough": .. a more accurate projection, having been generated by the ensembles, at the time, .. this in response to and set with what Dewey's suggested about the various pattern forcings at this time of year being a main factor where looking at a generally weaker ensembles output, ...

 

.. If counting colder air mass movement as one of the main "forcings" of broader pattern determination, what Dewey's suggested still may very likely be the case. Per my appreciation of colder air's contribution to main pattern generation at that time, it had been both slowing gradually following immediately after a period of stronger movement east.This while also at the time having just begun to move and spread daily more southward. 

 

— Essentially, new and fresh stores of colder air having been moving down from the north, looked at together with that cold's at the same time transitioning from a quicker pace east to one gradually more slowed (lending to the basic increasingly more meridional set up.).

 

.. And with this more basically, this period of generally stronger cold air movement looked at more over-all, having been appreciated better by whatever model and where considering whatever more specific run. And so, all where combined.

[Phil]

Has nothing to do with what I think the weather will actually be like eight days from now, but just a word of warning about the use of ensembles this time of year. They suck.

In terms of verification, they score higher than the OP runs at that range..that's for sure.

[Deweydog]

In terms of verification, they score higher than the OP runs at that range..that's for sure.

 

Admittedly I don't know the statistics, and I'd agree with this during the cold season (that being mid fall through mid spring) but during the warm season it seems they chase the operational's tail more often than not.  That's just many years of model pining talking.  At any time of year, it's just about identifying signals through the noise beyond 180 hours or so. Sometimes it just comes down to gut feeling once you get through all the acronyms.  

[TT-SEA]

Gorgeous day.

[Phil]

Admittedly I don't know the statistics, and I'd agree with this during the cold season (that being mid fall through mid spring) but during the warm season it seems they chase the operational's tail more often than not. That's just many years of model pining talking. At any time of year, it's just about identifying signals through the noise beyond 180 hours or so. Sometimes it just comes down to gut feeling once you get through all the acronyms.

Well yeah the deterministic suites are run on a higher resolution so they'll pick up on certain things the ensembles won't (it takes high resolution, multi-layered spectral analysis to adequately model the MJO, for instance). However, that fact also opens the model up to an exponential increase in chaos-based error in the long range..eventually to the point where it can no longer be distinguished from a given ensemble member in terms of accuracy...so you'll see the operational runs swing wildly in the long range, while the ensemble suite will tend to "trend" one way or another.

 

So, I'd say the trend of the ensemble suite is the key once past day 6-8...though others may disagree

[richard mann]

-
.. In line with what I'd said posted above (previous page.) regarding broader pattern projection—post  no. 477, …
 
… In fact with colder air's having just over the past few days begun to move more quickly east, this looked at together with its also being—per my projection—set to begin to move and spread daily more southward on the 20th, .. a period of more pronounced movement of cold looked at more over-all, similar to that that I've focused on within that post, should be in effect; .. which may also perhaps turn out to be recognized better by the ensembles.

[westcoastexpat]

You're absolutely incorrect.  Up until 2-3 weeks ago, the Euro was for months consistently way too warm in the 7-10 day range.  Since then the roles have consistently been reversed with the GFS becoming very erratic, yes, but the last few very hot runs of the Euro again beg a little more healthy skepticism than usual. 

 

Most of the continent being the keyword.

 

The Euro has nailed every cold trough this summer since late June.

[Deweydog]

Most of the continent being the keyword.

 

The Euro has nailed every cold trough this summer since late June.

 

We live here.  You posted that in a section of the forum dedicated to PNW weather as a testament to the accuracy of the Euro.  Seemed like a bit of a trolling attempt; a theory supported even further by the fact you've thrown out this caveat.  The subject matter yesterday was the unrealistic heat ridge it showed in the long range.  

[Phil]

Most of the continent being the keyword.

 

The Euro has nailed every cold trough this summer since late June.

Doesn't really matter. It's been too meridional on the Pacific coast due to it's propensity to hold back potential vorticity in the SW. Probably a topographic bias in some respects

[TT-SEA]

Hope this works out...

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/the-fall-2014-forecast-for-canada-1/32403312

[richard mann]

[.. fantastically on point for .. ] Most of the continent being the keyword.

 

The Euro has nailed every cold trough this summer since late June.

... general pattern .. spot on ... 850[mb]s

.. How far out are we talking here. .. Seven days, basically. ? 

 

— Interesting enough discussion.

[stuffradio]

 

.. How far out are we talking here. .. Seven days, basically. ? 

 

— Interesting enough discussion. 

 

Apparently the GFS is getting a name change soon, and the resolution will increase, and the resolution will stay the same for the 8-10 day period I think it was.

[Phil]

Apparently the GFS is getting a name change soon, and the resolution will increase, and the resolution will stay the same for the 8-10 day period I think it was.

Yep, within the next 6 months. I think truncation has been pushed back to day 10

[richard mann]

-
 ... In the case that I've perhaps left some doubt with the question that I've posed above, I'd in fact been asking just how far out the main Euro model, had been appreciated as having been accurate to the degree that "westcoastexpat" had suggested it had, where considering what he's pointed to.  @

[Jesse]

Just got back from camping on the NW side of Adams. Love this time of year in the high Cascades. Bugs are almost gone and the huckleberries are ripe.

 

The 12z looks perfect. Lots of nice weather coming up with cooler days mixed throughout and no more lows in the 60s/high humidity for awhile, it appears.