Pacific NW August 2014 Discussion

[Jesse]

All the way down to 85 today behind the cold front!!

 

#westerntroughing

[Deweydog]

Eeked out another 90 in Eugene.  Very nice.  

[Jesse]

Eeked out another 90 in Eugene.  Very nice.  

 

They must be getting close to their yearly record. Our upcoming Scorchtember could get them there.

[BLI snowman]

Just got back from camping on the NW side of Adams. Love this time of year in the high Cascades. Bugs are almost gone and the huckleberries are ripe.

 

The 12z looks perfect. Lots of nice weather coming up with cooler days mixed throughout and no more lows in the 60s/high humidity for awhile, it appears.

 

Low of 66 in Portland this morning, dewpoints back in the 60s today.

[Jesse]

Low of 66 in Portland this morning, dewpoints back in the 60s today.

 

Things look to be a little closer to normal in the humidity department after today. Even if it gets hot again.

 

Better save those last drops of sweat in a ziplock baggy and keep it in your sock drawer until next Summer!

[BLI snowman]

Things look to be a little closer to normal in the humidity department after today. Even if it gets hot again.

 

Better save those last drops of sweat in a ziplock baggy and keep it in your sock drawer until next Summer!

 

You'll be whining about humidity and warm lows for several more months, I feel.

[Jesse]

Strong NW wind out here today. High of 84 after a low of only 67, but it should drop below that by midnight. 

 

DP 57 currently.

[Deweydog]

They must be getting close to their yearly record. Our upcoming Scorchtember could get them there.

 

Probably so, considering we're now due for a warm September on top of all the other evidence at hand.  I'm almost starting to feel for you, kiddo.  

[Jesse]

Probably so, considering we're now due for a warm September on top of all the other evidence at hand. I'm almost starting to feel for you, kiddo.

We're always due for a warm one.

[Deweydog]

We're always due for a warm one.

 

Well now that 1996 and 2004 are so close to the top of the heap, absolutely.  

 

And if this is the case, seems strange that you'd argue it will be a cool one.  

 

#septembermeanseverything

[Jesse]

18z and it's ensembles are nice. Growing consensus for a second trough week 2.

 

12z Euro hinted at this as well.

[Deweydog]

18z and it's ensembles are nice. Growing consensus for a second trough week 2.

 

12z Euro hinted at this as well.

 

I'm not sure why anything past 150 hours would be taken seriously right now.  Way too much noise in the system.  

[Jesse]

I'm not sure why anything past 150 hours would be taken seriously right now. Way too much noise in the system.

September is over 150 hours away. We seem to have that 30-day period nailed down.

[Deweydog]

September is over 150 hours away. We seem to have that 30-day period nailed down.

 

I don't have a clue what will happen in September.  I just know what ever happens will probably come out warm.  There will be troughs.  

[Jesse]

I don't have a clue what will happen in September. 

 

Thaat's more like it.

[richard mann]

I'm not sure why anything past 150 hours would be taken seriously right now.  Way too much noise in the system.  

 

If only more gradually at first, I'd say that that general state is about to change, myself.

 

— Things may remain generally less pronounced over the next three days or so, but my own expectation is that some amount of fresh cold air is, even at this point, about to move south, to add to the general mix leastwise. 

[Tyler Mode]

Here is what I'm calling the Mt. Rainier Sampler (until I have time to work on more photos)

To tell you how beautiful it is up there, typically on a week long road trip, I"ll take 1,200-1,500 photos. In the last two days I took nearly 1,000

http://weathercrazy.smugmug.com/Landscapes/Mt-Rainier-Sampler

[Deweydog]

Thaat's more like it.

Whatever keeps your toaster out of the bathtub...

[Deweydog]

If only more gradually at first, I'd say that that general state is about to change, myself.

 

— Things may remain generally less pronounced over the next three days or so, but my own expectation is that some amount of fresh cold air is, even at this point, about to move south, to add to the general mix leastwise

.

Cooler air masses are a given moving forward.

[richard mann]

.. ok.

 

 Although, beyond this more general idea, what I'm saying if again, is that things—with the main influx of cold that I've suggested—should start to become more pronounced, and so better able to be picked up and responded to - general parameterization wise, by the models, in three or four days. More within the 72-96 hour range; set against the 150 hours idea that you'd brought up, if more incidentally above.   

 

— Per my appreciation, the models don't recognize the general transition from general regression of cold more fully north, to new and fresh cold infusion from the north, all that well.

 

With this, and if of more incidental note here, where regarding my own use (or check.) of whichever of the main models, whether main or more ensemble type, I don't refer to them where looking more ahead. But do check them later to note their accuracy.

[TT-SEA]

Beautiful day... puffy clouds and sun and comfortably warm this afternoon here.

 

This weekend is looking spectacular... highs around 80 with sunshine.   Just perfect.

[stuffradio]

I'm looking out for #SeptemberTroughing! I'm planting a bunch of Carrots and Peas the next few days. Troughing would help with keeping the soil moist more consistently.

[Jesse]

Feels great out there tonight. Glad this pattern change has finally arrived.

[Tyler Mode]

53 here this AM.  Coolest temp since the 10th.

 

On this date, at least in the last 4 years, has never been below 51 here. 

[Jesse]

12Z runs are nice. Although we obviously aren't entering a period of wall to wall troughing and chilly temps (even I'm not ready for that yet), the overall 500mb pattern has shifted from where it has been most of the heart of summer.

 

It appears we may be entering a regime with higher heights offshore and troughs brushing us to the east. This means a mix of cool to very warm days, cooler nights and drier air overall, with periods of offshore flow coming up. Perfect late summer to early fall transition weather.

[Jesse]

Might get my wrist slapped for mentioning it/non-sarcastically talking weather but the 12Z EURO ensemble mean is much cooler than the operational from the weekend onward. In line with the 12Z GFS and its ensembles.

[Tyler Mode]

Running a few degrees cooler this evening vs last.  78 for a high today, I'll take it!

[Tyler Mode]

Cool this morning with a low of 44!

 

It's the coolest temp since, well, the first day of summer (June 21st)

[Prairiedog]

I hit 45.  Had all the windows open and dang.  Chemult down to 28f, Sisters at 34.  High desert growing season drawing close to its end.

[luminen]

D**n, I wish it'd get hot here for once. I need to move... 

[FroYoBro]

D**n, I wish it'd get hot here for once. I need to move... 

Move to the middle east. It was hot there. 

[Deweydog]

Sunny.

[TT-SEA]

Sunny.

 

Indeed.

 

Nice lack of stratus given the trough overhead.   Good mixing.  

[Deweydog]

Indeed.

 

Nice lack of stratus given the trough overhead. Good mixing.

It's been a summer of best-case scenarios.

[TT-SEA]

It's been a summer of best-case scenarios.

 

 

3rd such summer in a row.

 

Although... up here the ULL last week was not a best-case scenario.   It was nice to get the rain on Tuesday night... but not so fun waiting until Saturday afternoon to really see the sun again.

[Deweydog]

3rd such summer in a row.

 

Although... up here the ULL last week was not a best-case scenario. It was nice to get the rain on Tuesday night... but not so fun waiting until Saturday afternoon to really see the sun again.

That's best-case in North Bend, WA.

[TT-SEA]

That's best-case in North Bend, WA.

 

 

Nahhh... its been sunny here for probably 85% of the summer.

 

It was cloudy in Seattle for most of the time between Tuesday - Saturday morning as well.    I think we actually had more sun breaks out here last week.

[westiztehbest]

Now if we could have this pattern lock in place for this winter...(hah doubtful right).

 

[luminen]

Hopefully we get some upper 90s and dew points around 65F before this summer is over...

 

Nice weather today though it is only 78F.

[Phil]

 

 

More quiet boring weather.

Yeah this time of year (late August through late September) is usually my least favorite...especially when it's warm.

 

If there's one thing I cannot stand, it's an Indian Summer