Pacific NW August 2014 Discussion

[Jesse]

Already did, weeks ago. That plus longer term trends makes me feel like it's a relatively safe call.

What longer term trends, oh-vague one?

 

We're all here to learn.

[Deweydog]

What longer term trends, oh-vague one?

 

We're all here to learn.

Warmth. Late season warmth. The tendency of late has been to see less prolonged warmth early in the warm season, more later. It's not universal, and granted I thought August would be more of a shift from July, but the upcoming -PNA stuff has me feeling better.

[Jesse]

Warmth. Late season warmth. The tendency of late has been to see less prolonged warmth early in the warm season, more later. It's not universal, and granted I thought August would be more of a shift from July, but the upcoming -PNA stuff has me feeling better.

Aside from the late July trough it has been pretty much wall to wall warmth since 7-1. Obscure record-breakingly so in many cases. Tough to make the "due" case in this instance. I'm assuming that's what your basing your outlook off of.

 

Just odd to hear a "we're warmth-starved" argument after one of our warmest Julys on record (Oregon's second warmest in recorded history) and likely one of our warmest first halves of August. But hey, not like what we think matters anyway.

 

Sometimes it feels like you are basing your outooks off of an imaginary climo world where we need to have a 595dm ridge over us every day all summer or else we will pay later.

[Deweydog]

Aside from the late July trough it has been pretty much wall to wall warmth since 7-1. Obscure record-breakingly so in many cases. Tough to make the "due" case in this instance. I'm assuming that's what your basing your outlook off of.

 

Just odd to hear a "we're warmth-starved" argument after one of our warmest Julys on record (Oregon's second warmest in recorded history) and likely one of our warmest first halves of August. But hey, not like what we think matters anyway.

 

Sometimes it feels like you are basing your outooks off of an imaginary climo world where we need to have a 595dm ridge over us every day all summer or else we will pay later.

 

I can't help how you interpret it.  We're not paying for anything and your last sentence just amounts to Tim-like whining.  It's weather.  It doesn't care how Jesse feels about warm lows.  I pay attention and have a pretty good working knowledge of things day to day, for the most part.  I don't claim to, nor do I actually have the technical knowledge of some but sometimes a dose of common sense and attentiveness can go a long way.  Many get twisted up about what they want, feel we deserve and the justices/injustices of the emo side of weather geekdom.  It's human, but it doesn't mean s**t.  

 

This isn't about being due or not due.  And whether September turns out warm, cool or average doesn't mean the difference between night and day.  My initial thoughts were that we'd see a fairly hot early/mid summer followed by a marked cool down going into August.  The cool down has obviously been delayed.  Does that mean September may end up cooler?  Maybe, but I doubt it at this point.

[Jesse]

I can't help how you interpret it.  We're not paying for anything and your last sentence just amounts to Tim-like whining.  It's weather.  It doesn't care how Jesse feels about warm lows.  I pay attention and have a pretty good working knowledge of things day to day, for the most part.  I don't claim to, nor do I actually have the technical knowledge of some but sometimes a dose of common sense and attentiveness can go a long way.  Many get twisted up about what they want, feel we deserve and the justices/injustices of the emo side of weather geekdom.  It's human, but it doesn't mean s**t.  

 

This isn't about being due or not due.  And whether September turns out warm, cool or average doesn't mean the difference between night and day.  My initial thoughts were that we'd see a fairly hot early/mid summer followed by a marked cool down going into August.  The cool down has obviously been delayed.  Does that mean September may end up cooler?  Maybe, but I doubt it at this point.

 

Nor can I help how you interpret my comments.

 

Seems to me that common sense would dictate the cooldown getting pushed into later August would increase the chances of a cool September. Nothing to do with what I want or feel we're owed. Just the simple fact that is has been pretty warm the better part of the last six months and the other shoe has to drop eventually.

 

Guess we'll find out soon!

[Deweydog]

Nor can I help how you interpret my comments.

 

Seems to me that common sense would dictate the cooldown getting pushed into later August would increase the chances of a cool September. Nothing to do with what I want or feel we're owed. Just the simple fact that is has been pretty warm the better part of the last six months and the other shoe has to drop eventually.

 

Guess we'll find out soon!

 

Maybe so, but the longer the shoe takes to drop for more than 7-10 days at a time, the more chances it'll take longer for it to drop for more than 7-10 days at a time.  If it makes you feel any better, I think October/November might be pretty stormy.  

 

And trust me, everyone knows how to interpret your comments.  

[Jesse]

Maybe so, but the longer the shoe takes to drop for more than 7-10 days at a time, the more chances it'll take longer to drop for more than 7-10 days at a time.  If it makes you feel any better, I think October/November might be pretty stormy.  

 

And trust me, everyone knows how to interpret your comments.  

 

Whatever helps you sleep at night, Sigmund.

[Deweydog]

Whatever helps you sleep at night, Sigmund.

 

All you need is a pulse and access to the GFS/Euro.  

[Jesse]

Maybe so, but the longer the shoe takes to drop for more than 7-10 days at a time, the more chances it'll take longer for it to drop for more than 7-10 days at a time.  If it makes you feel any better, I think October/November might be pretty stormy.  

 

And trust me, everyone knows how to interpret your comments.  

 

Another note. I have observed this same phenomenon. It seems like if "pattern changes" are piecemeal and short we will often revert back to the default pattern, prolonging its predominance in the end.

 

If I am correct and the upcoming retrogression represents a large scale, long term shift we may in a cool period for awhile. Hence my thoughts about Sep-Dec a bit ago. But if it looks like we are transitioning out of it within a few weeks I will be sweating. Granted this stuff has a tendency to usually bite me in the a** so I'm sure that's how it will play out.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I don't care if the other shoe doesn't drop until around Thanksgiving.

[Deweydog]

I don't care if the other shoe doesn't drop until around Thanksgiving.

 

Careful...

[Deweydog]

Another note. I have observed this same phenomenon. It seems like if "pattern changes" are piecemeal and short we will often revert back to the default pattern, prolonging its predominance in the end.

 

If I am correct and the upcoming retrogression represents a large scale, long term shift we may in a cool period for awhile. Hence my thoughts about Sep-Dec a bit ago. But if it looks like we are transitioning out of it within a few weeks I will be sweating. Granted this stuff has a tendency to usually bite me in the a** so I'm sure that's how it will play out.

 

"Awhile" is a pretty subjective term.  Through the end of the month is quite awhile.  Just think how long your finger nails would be if you just let them grow until two weeks from Monday.  

[Jesse]

"Awhile" is a pretty subjective term.  Through the end of the month is quite awhile.  Just think how long your finger nails would be if you just let them grow until two weeks from Monday.  

 

For cool periods, two weeks is forever.

 

For warmth, six months and we are still starving for more. 

 

This doesn't feel like a very objective analysis.

[TT-SEA]

I can't help how you interpret it. We're not paying for anything and your last sentence just amounts to Tim-like whining. It's weather. It doesn't care how Jesse feels about warm lows.

It's been pretty much a daily Jesse bitchfest on here since April. He tries to keep it in check but his disgust comes oozing out.

 

We should all hate warm weather like he does. Why can't it be cold and rainy all summer???? I am getting exhausted from all this summer fun.

[Deweydog]

For cool periods, two weeks is forever.

 

For warmth, six months and we are still starving for more. 

 

This doesn't feel like a very objective analysis.

 

It's not.  This is why you struggle mightily at times.  You lack objectivity.  

 

Look at 2010.  Cool spring, cool summer.  Did September automatically fall off the table into heatwave oblivion?  No.  That summer was about a cool regime with brief interludes of heat. The only person here that couldn't take that in stride was Tim.  

 

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF ensemble mean is warmer with higher heights than its operational run for later in the week and next weekend

[TT-SEA]

Warm lows and higher dewpoints and very comfortable evenings has been a particularly enjoyable aspect of this summer.

[Jesse]

It's not.  This is why you struggle mightily at times.  You lack objectivity.  

 

Look at 2010.  Cool spring, cool summer.  Did September automatically fall off the table into heatwave oblivion?  No.  That summer was about a cool regime with brief interludes of heat. The only person here that couldn't take that in stride was Tim.  

 

 

I think everyone here has weather they do or don't like. While it is not good to let this affect analysis/forecasting (I realize this has been an issue of mine in the past)  it is almost impossible to not include some personal commentary. Is this forum just about weather or is it about weather and people? We aren't robots. 

 

Then again it is of course bad form to flood the forum with constant opining. 

 

Like you said earlier, it's about balance. 

 

I'm sure you have your druthers as well. Be sure to never let any of us know about them, though. We might think less of you if you do.

[Deweydog]

Objectivity is a funny thing. Can anyone truly be 100% objective? I mean you could go down a long, winding philosophical road for that one. Suddenly reality itself starts breaking down.

 

I think everyone here has weather they do or don't like. While it is not good to let this affect analysis/forecasting (I realize this has been an issue of mine in the past)  it is almost impossible to not include some personal commentary. Is this forum just about weather or is it about weather and people? We aren't robots. 

 

I'm sure you have your druthers as well. Be sure to never let any of us know about them, though. We might think less of you if you do.

 

Like you said earlier, it's about balance.

 

This isn't a test of whether someone can achieve spotless objectivity.  Humans are humans.  But keep it in context.  You make it sound like someone has to apologize for remaining or striving for objectivity in a scientific analysis.  There is no balance there.  It's black and white. 

 

From a subjective standpoint, it's funny to watch you over the years make efforts to tear people down who don't fall in line with your taste in weather.  Is that what you want everyone to do? Will that quench your thirst for subjectivity?  I hope for and like all kinds of weather, but those opinions are mine and will differ from most.  My wife hates snow and thunderstorms.  Do I chide her for this?  I'll let you figure that one out on your own.  

[Jesse]

This isn't a test of whether someone can achieve spotless objectivity.  Humans are humans.  But keep it in context.  You make it sound like someone has to apologize for remaining or striving for objectivity in a scientific analysis.  There is no balance there.  It's black and white. 

 

From a subjective standpoint, it's funny to watch you over the years make efforts to tear people down who don't fall in line with your taste in weather.  Is that what you want everyone to do? Will that quench your thirst for subjectivity?  I hope for and like all kinds of weather, but those opinions are mine and will differ from most.  My wife hates snow and thunderstorms.  Do I chide her for this?  I'll let you figure that one out on your own.  

 

Then you interpreted my comments incorrectly.

 

Lastly, in my defense, I don't think that has been as much of an issue lately. It's a negative thing do to and just ruins the forum. Even conflagrations like today's are best avoided IMO. Not even sure how this started. We were having an interesting weather based discussion and suddenly we are playing therapist patient to each other. This will be my last contribution to this particular conversation. 

[Deweydog]

Then you interpreted my comments incorrectly.

 

Lastly, in my defense, I don't think that has been as much of an issue lately. It's a negative thing do to and just ruins the forum. Even conflagrations like today's are best avoided IMO. Not even sure how this started. We were having an interesting weather based discussion and suddenly we are playing therapist patient to each other. This will be my last contribution to this particular conversation. 

 

Maybe just settle on the fact I don't get wrapped around the axle about people's opinion's of the weather.  I don't think that's a character flaw.  I like all kinds of weather.  Hot, cold, dry, wet, white, orange. And the great thing is, whether or not one of those things happens now, it's happened before and will happen again.  Not worth getting in a twist about.  

[Jesse]

Nice to see all of this activity here after the slow past few months!

[Phil]

I don't know about the 2nd half of September, but the 1st half of the month should be troughy in the west, and ridgy in the east, simply based on the cycling AAM and MJO/CCKW now in the IO.

[Deweydog]

Nice to see all of this activity here after the slow past few months!

 

#westerntroughing

[seattleweatherguy]

12Z ECMWF ensemble mean is warmer with higher heights than its operational run for later in the week and next weekend

 

Interesting so maybe wed and thurs wont have showers or rain? the weather.com app has taken out the showers for thursday. 

[Jesse]

#westerntroughing

 

Everyone needs to like it. Or else.

[richard mann]

I don't know about the 2nd half of September, but the 1st half of the month should be troughy in the west, and ridgy in the east, simply based on the cycling AAM and MJO/CCKW now in the IO.

 

Pardon. ?

 

— Perhaps you could expand on your thinking here a bit. (?)

 

As in, .. What is it that you're seeing more in particularly, where considering the cycling that you've pointed to. ?

 

And with this, .. why, more specifically, what you've suggested will occur .. will. 

[Phil]

Pardon. ?

 

— Perhaps you could expand on your thinking here a bit. (?)

 

As in, .. What is it that you're seeing more in particularly, where considering the cycling that you've pointed to. ?

 

And with this, as to .. Why, more specifically, what you've suggested will occur .. will.

Haven't I explained my reasoning and the aspects of the AAM/MJO cycle(s) like 15 times here? No offense intended, but I think I've regurgitated my reasoning relentlessly since I first predicted the return of western troughing almost 2 weeks ago.

 

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/aam.90day.seascyc.shtml

[richard mann]

Haven't I explained my reasoning and the aspects of the AAM/MJO cycle(s) like 15 times here? ...............

 

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/aam.90day.seascyc.shtml

 

Perhaps "not". ....

[Phil]

See the drop in the AAM, associated with an invigorated MJO in the midst of a cooling equatorial tropopause:

 

http://catchmypicture.com/TwyUYw.jpg

[richard mann]

-

.. How about "never mind". 

[Jesse]

See the drop in the AAM, associated with an invigorated MJO in the midst of a cooling equatorial tropopause:

 

http://catchmypicture.com/TwyUYw.jpg

#westerntroughing?

[BLI snowman]

#westerntroughing?

 

#hashtag

[Deweydog]

What a ***** that'd be if we were back in the 80's a week from now??

[BLI snowman]

What ***** that'd be if we were back in the 80's a week from now??

 

I'm running in Hood to Coast next weekend, so I am inclined to agree. 

[Deweydog]

I'm running in Hood to Coast next weekend, so I am inclined to agree.

I did it in 2003 and had a blast.

[TT-SEA]

I'm running in Hood to Coast next weekend, so I am inclined to agree.

Very cool... I have some relatives from Texas coming up for that.

[Phil]

#westerntroughing?

Haven't seen this in awhile!! Where will the axis gradient set up??

 

http://catchmypicture.com/f/2ejyct/640.jpg

 

http://catchmypicture.com/f/v4zC2T/640.jpg

[BLI snowman]

I did it in 2003 and had a blast.

 

First time for me. Looking at Friday afternoon, worst case scenario for the Portland area is probably mid 80s, so it could certainly be worse. 

[Deweydog]

First time for me. Looking at Friday afternoon, worst case scenario for the Portland area is probably mid 80s, so it could certainly be worse.

Mid 80's was the worst of it for us. Seaside was socked in so that was a nice prize at the end of the line.