Pacific NW August 2014 Discussion

[richard mann]

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"... first fall-like system" ... [first] "Sign of Fall", per Cliff Mass.
 
— From his blog, posted later yesterday. 
 
http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2014/08/the-sign-of-fall.html

[Deweydog]

When in Rome...

 

Yes, go on...

[TT-SEA]

http://green2.kingcounty.gov/swimbeach/BeachData.aspx?Locator=0826SB&CurrentYear=true

I did go a couple days ago ind definitely did feel cooler. But 75 is too warm for a lake in my opinion. 

 

 

Lake Washington is never too warm... its barely gets to tolerable for a few weeks each summer.

 

You might well be the first person to ever complain that its too warm!    

[TT-SEA]

No we are not.

 

 

But the ridging may come anyways.    I have a feeling that September might end up that way after this weekend trough.

 

And we have not had strong ridging in the past few months.   We have just been in the sweet spot of a meandering pattern... again.  

[richard mann]

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For the record here Tim. (Fun, even.)  .... I'm not seeing it either.    @
 
Can you point to anything beyond what you have above, that might work to support this shift. ? 
 
— An analog or two. ?  /  Your warmer sea-surface temps theory and thinking. ?
 
The law of averages, put together with your fairly general view and assessment of things looked at both more currently, along with more back through August previously above, don't really, very will. I don't think. 
 
What, if anything more specific, tells you that what you've pointed to as lending to a greater chance for ridging where looking ahead—to ".. from mid-September into October"—won't instead, more just to things continuing on as they have been. ? 
 
... Basically, relatively short-lived ridging—if having generated significant, even noteworthy heat, more north-focused—with otherwise, plenty of general "breaks", more in between.

[Jesse]

NWS going with lows of 62, 60 and 59 at PDX the next three nights. I figured the mild nights weren't going anywhere. The very idea of PDX dropping below 60 anytime between now and October is clearly ridiculous

[Jesse]

Yes, go on...

A bird in the hand...

[Deweydog]

A bird in the hand...

[Deweydog]

NWS going with lows of 62, 60 and 59 at PDX the next three nights. I figured the mild nights weren't going anywhere. The very idea of PDX dropping below 60 anytime between now and October is clearly ridiculous

 

That 59 might feel a little nipply.  

[Deweydog]

And so it goes, PDX should this evening close out another 60+ degree day, tying last year's monthly record of 22.  It'll be a tougher task, but if the 63 holds that will be #14 there or above for the month; adding to an already crooked record.  

 

Tasty. 

[TT-SEA]

And so it goes, PDX should this evening close out another 60+ degree day, tying last year's monthly record of 22. It'll be a tougher task, but if the 63 holds that will be #14 there or above for the month; adding to an already crooked record.

 

Tasty.

Pleasant indeed.

 

And we are in Portland now.

[Jesse]

That 59 might feel a little nipply.

Do you actually seeing things staying that mild? I mean we do have a cooler airmass moving in.

[Deweydog]

Do you actually seeing things staying that mild? I mean we do have a cooler airmass moving in.

Pretty cloudy one and there isn't much frontogenesis or CAA. I don't see them getting 58 or so the rest of the month.

[Jesse]

Pretty cloudy one and there isn't much frontogenesis or CAA. I don't see them getting 58 or so the rest of the month.

Nelsen's going with 59 tomorrow morning. Cold bias!!

 

At least things look more normal next week. Although I thought the same thing last week.

[Deweydog]

Nelsen's going with 59 tomorrow morning. Cold bias!!

 

At least things look more normal next week. Although I thought the same thing last week.

Next week looks pretty soupy, at least early on.

[Jesse]

Next week looks pretty soupy, at least early on.

I'm actually seeing some chilly night potential starting mid-week. But yeah, Monday/Tuesday mornings will probably be 55-60.

[Jesse]

Cooling has arrived out this way. Clear skies and 64 now, DP 53. Feels amazing out.

 

Hit a high of 76 today with partly to mostly cloudy skies. Low this morning was 58.

[Tyler Mode]

79 here today briefly.  Lots of people saying they are liking the cool down.

 

I'm fine with the cool down but okay with the sun too.

 

Really I'm waiting for that day after the first snow falls down to 6-7,000',the skies clear out and the mountains are white and the air is clean again.

[Jesse]

Wow, NWS nailed it.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Been raining since about 730am this morning up here. Very light rain, but oh so refreshing!

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF says summer is coming back.

[TT-SEA]

 

Yeah... its not like we have months and months of rain and crap ahead.    Better hurry and end all nice weather so there is no glare on your computer screen.    My kids agree that is the most important thing.  

[Deweydog]

ECMWF says summer is coming back.

Yet another cracked out run from the most reliable global model.

[TT-SEA]

Yet another cracked out run from the most reliable global model.

 

Darn.

 

You are almost always right when you say that.   

 

At least the GFS and Canadian agree that it will be summery next weekend.    Just not to the extent of the ECMWF.   

[Jesse]

Holy crap. It's non-convective raining.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

0.25" of rain here today. Me like.

[Jesse]

I'm thinking the second week of September will be very warm.

[TT-SEA]

After this gorgeous summer... there are SO many pastey-white, extremely obese people in Portland. And most of them are heavily tatooed.

[Phil]

ECMWF says summer is coming back.

Clinging to the OP run 168hrs out? You're quite the wishcaster.

[TT-SEA]

Clinging to the OP run 168hrs out? You're quite the wishcaster.

Clinging? Just mentioned it. 12Z basically agrees. And where did I make a forecast anyways?

[Phil]

Clinging? Just mentioned it. 12Z basically agrees. And where did I make a forecast anyways?

What do you suspect will happen, then? I have to say, you're a very talented troller

 

I can't respond to this without sounding like a dumb, dense crank

[Phil]

I admit the moonshine is still in my system today. If I'm not making correct interpretations, let me know

[TT-SEA]

What do you suspect will happen, then? I have to say, you're a very talented troller

 

I can't respond to this without sounding like a dumb, dense crank

 

Just mentioned what the most reliable model shows. I pretty much expect it to happen based on some consistency now. But it's not my forecast... just reporting what it showed.

[Phil]

Just mentioned what the most reliable model shows. I pretty much expect it to happen based on some consistency now. But it's not my forecast... just reporting what it showed.

What is your forecast? I'm definitely not on the ridgy bandwagon..

[TT-SEA]

What is your forecast? I'm definitely not on the ridgy bandwagon..

Ridging along the immediate West Coast is very likely starting in 5 days.

[Deweydog]

I'm thinking the second week of September will be very warm.

This is just frustration over the lack of 600dm+ ridging this summer talking.

[Jesse]

This is just frustration over the lack of 600dm+ ridging this summer talking.

I take it you agree?

[Deweydog]

I take it you agree?

I think it'll be average or a bit above. Nothing too shocking considering what I thought was likely coming into the month.

[Jesse]

I think it'll be average or a bit above. Nothing too shocking considering what I thought was likely coming into the month.

Sounds about right. I also think that the last half of the month could actually be troughier than the first.

 

I also think PDX has a decent chance of dropping below 60 tonight, though. So don't take my outlook too seriously.

[Deweydog]

Sounds about right. I also think that the last half of the month could actually be troughier than the first.

 

I also think PDX has a decent chance of dropping below 60 tonight, though. So don't take my outlook too seriously.

I suspected the whole month would be on the benign side. Kinda looks that way so far.

 

As for PDX, they already set a new precedent this morning if they can avoid dropping too quickly this evening.