Long Range Discussion for Autumn and Winter

[Geos]

Plucked this from the Weather Bell summary today.

 

The analogs they are using for this winter paints this for U.S. temperatures.

 

 

[Tom]

Last year Chicago had the coldest Dec-March period on record since 1882.  With that being said, winter is expected to come out of the gates fast and furious this November.  I'm wondering if not only Chicago, but other places in the Plains/Midwest/Lakes could surpass that and set a record for the coldest Nov-Mar period this year!  Some of the long range seasonal models indicate major blocking to continue well into late Winter/early Spring so that could easily set the pace for another long lasting winter season this year.  So much on the table this season and this is just the beginning.  It's going to be a long and exciting season on this forum and I can't wait to until the first snow storm arrives!

[james1976]

Last year Chicago had the coldest Dec-March period on record since 1882.  With that being said, winter is expected to come out of the gates fast and furious this November.  I'm wondering if not only Chicago, but other places in the Plains/Midwest/Lakes could surpass that and set a record for the coldest Nov-Mar period this year!  Some of the long range seasonal models indicate major blocking to continue well into late Winter/early Spring so that could easily set the pace for another long lasting winter season this year.  So much on the table this season and this is just the beginning.  It's going to be a long and exciting season on this forum and I can't wait to until the first snow storm arrives!

and that i hope will be next monday, haha.

yes, i hope this winter will be epic like last year. my fav season of the year

[indianajohn]

Mike Caplan ABC7 shared ABC 7 Chicago Weather's photo.

4 hours ago

Here's the NOAA extended temperature probability map for the 6-10 day period Nov 10-14. Translation-- very high likelihood of colder-than-average temps during that time. To me-- there are growing signs of winter attacking early here and putting on another impressive performance. The massive snowpack that has formed over northern Eurasia-especially Siberia already, has historical analogues to nasty winters here. Record snowfalls this past weekend in places like Columbia SC are also worrying omens IMHO. If we DO have another brutal winter here, how would you handle it?

 

 

At least Mike Caplan visits the forum LOL!!!

[Niko]

http://cbsboston.files.wordpress.com/2013/11/winter-2013-14.png

[Niko]

I like the track from that map....that would clobber my area with lots of snow.

[Tom]

http://cbsboston.files.wordpress.com/2013/11/winter-2013-14.png

Looks like the October run of the JAMSTEC model with the heart of the cold centered farther west/central.  Should produce and active storm track just to the south of the most severe cold.

[Geos]

The solar activity updated graph shows a big drop in sunspots. 

 

[tim the weatherman]

I like the track from that map....that would clobber my area with lots of snow.

with this stormtrack map that my area will get clobbered too nikos.

[Niko]

with this stormtrack map that my area will get clobbered too nikos.

I hope so tim. Lets start hitting records again like last year.

[Tom]

Update on current SST's around the globe:

 

I'll post a map of the SST's back on Oct 24th and compare it to today's current SST's.  If you look today's map of the northern Pacific, you will notice the cold pool of waters building to the north of Hawaii and anonymously warm waters hugging the west coast and NW NAMER.  It's no wonder that we are seeing a split flow in the eastern Pacific and a ridge developing over the Yukon today that is bring the eastern 2/3rd CONUS the coldest air of the season to date.  The SST pattern shaping up in the northern Pacific is a classic cold/stormy signal for our region.

 

Let's take a look at the ENSO region and see what the waters near the equator are doing.  Over the past 2.5 weeks, we have seen the warm waters near South America retrograde westward towards the central Pacific (ENSO region 3.4).  This is exactly where all the long range seasonal models are forecasting the developing weak/low-end moderate Modiki El Nino to develop during the winter months that will eventually activate the sub tropical southern jet stream as we move ahead.  Notice the warm waters still hugging the west coast of Mexico and southern Cali.

 

Last but not least, in the north Atlantic a classic Tri-Pole look is still intact and this is leading to a persistent -NAO this winter unlike we had last year.  This is reason to believe that storm systems this season will be much slower and stronger than last year given the magnitude of blocking we have seen thus far this Autumn season.  All signs continue to point to a very cold, active and snowy winter ahead for the nation as a whole.

[Tom]

Here is the snow cover comparison for Eurasia 2013 vs 2014...a bit more coverage this year compared to last year.

[Tom]

Here is Canada's/U.S. snow cover comparison...off to a fast start.

[Tom]

FYI...Here is Chicago's National Weather Service Winter Outlook....

 

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/lot/winter1415_outlook.pdf