Long Range Discussion for Autumn and Winter

[The Snowman]

What are your guys opinions for this upcoming winter season???  In all honesty, to me it seems the atmosphere is setting up a Royal Flush.

Cautiously optimistic.

 

If the -QBO, warm stratosphere combine forces, and sunspots plummet during the winter.... well, things would get pretty fun.

[Geos]

I think it will rival last year. All long range signals seem to point toward that. At least everything I've seen. If there is a bigtime NW flow then we would be affected more by clippers, like last year. I'm hoping we get more bigger systems from the SW and the Rockies, as well.

 

Kind of hard to imagine a harsher winter, than last winter! Almost 100 days of straight snow cover, 20+ days with lows below zero, and about twice the normal snowfall. I know it can get snowier than that, but that usually involves a little bit milder winter to pull that off.

[Tom]

I have been looking at the CFSv2 maps for snow depth over the past week and a lot of members are leading to the idea of the snow cover building to the U.S./Canada border by the 1st week of November!  That would be awesome to see early on in the season.

[Tom]

Kind of hard to imagine a harsher winter, than last winter! Almost 100 days of straight snow cover, 20+ days with lows below zero, and about twice the normal snowfall. I know it can get snowier than that, but that usually involves a little bit milder winter to pull that off.

Imagine having a snow cover from late November into late March!  Hahaha...this could be the winter that starts the idea of the mini Ice Age!

[thomas0824]

http://www.kjrh.com/weather/whys/storm-shield-blog-are-the-squirrels-nuts-or-can-they-tell-us-something-about-the-upcoming-winter. Here a local weather guy acorn theory

[East Dubzz]

Was really thinking we were going to get more rain tonight. Not too exciting.

[Geos]

Except for off of Japan, the entire north Pacific is above normal.

 

[james1976]

Except for off of Japan, the entire north Pacific is above normal.

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2014/anomnight.10.2.2014.gif

......and this is what we want for cold and active, correct?

[The Snowman]

......and this is what we want for cold and active, correct?

Ideally, the cold would be located in the Sea of Japan; the warmth in that particular body of water would go against such a cold/stormy correlation.

 

The cold waters east of Japan might be too far east for those of us in the Central US.

[james1976]

Ideally, the cold would be located in the Sea of Japan; the warmth in that particular body of water would go against such a cold/stormy correlation.

 

The cold waters east of Japan might be too far east for those of us in the Central US.

That sucks.

[james1976]

The cold waters east of Japan might be too far east for those of us in the Central US.

Could that mean a trough in the western US?

[Tom]

Could that mean a trough in the western US?

No need to worry James, sounds like your getting yourself in a pickle.  The colder waters east of Japan are a good sign and even if you take into account the warm waters to the west of Japan in that bay, look at the SST anamoly from July to present day...they have cooled dramatically from all the storminess that has occurred.  There is even some blues showing up on the western end of the bay.  I wouldn't sweat it at all.

 

The body of water that will be the main driving force this season will be in the north and northeast pacific...just like last year.  I remember there were a few times that a ridge built in near Japan last winter and ppl were forecasting a ridge for the central/eastern U.S.  The ridge only occurred near the east coast during Super Bowl Sunday (50's were forecasted) and nowhere near our region.  The warm waters in the north pacific out dueled the ridge to build into our region.  IMO, this winter will have sustained cold just like last year, esp with all the blocking occurring so early in the season.

[Tom]

Could that mean a trough in the western US?

No, not necessarily...remember last year around mid January when the longer range models and local NWS mets were seeing a massive change in the pacific and some were believing that the cold would flip to a warm pattern???  Some of these mets were actually very respected in the NWS I remember.  What happened???  The LRC won and the mets lost! 

[Dan the Weatherman]

Except for off of Japan, the entire north Pacific is above normal.

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2014/anomnight.10.2.2014.gif

Looks like a classic +PDO signature except that the SSTs are more above normal this time around in the far northern regions.

[Geos]

Another thing of note is that warm pool of water off New England and Nova Scotia. That suggest a -NAO. Probably not strongly, so due to the cooler waters further east.

 

Check out the difference between now and one year ago. The NE Pacific hadn't even warmed over average yet. Were already sitting with a huge positive anomaly there and in the Bearing Sea.

I have a feeling that cold air is going to want to drive into the central part of the US most of this winter as well.

 

 

Once we got closer to December last year, that warm pool shifted closer to AK and BC.

 

[Tom]

Another thing of note is that warm pool of water off New England and Nova Scotia. That suggest a -NAO. Probably not strongly, so due to the cooler waters further east.

 

Check out the difference between now and one year ago. The NE Pacific hadn't even warmed over average yet. Were already sitting with a huge positive anomaly there and in the Bearing Sea.

I have a feeling that cold air is going to want to drive into the central part of the US most of this winter as well.

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2013/anomnight.10.3.2013.gif

 

Once we got closer to December last year, that warm pool shifted closer to AK and BC.

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2013/anomnight.11.25.2013.gif

That's one of the reasons why our Fall was so warm last year up until mid November when it flipped cold.  I remember the first 15 days of November were torchy around these parts.  Mid November is when the cold pattern started to settle in.

 

Edit:  The amount of warm waters in the north pacific this time around is unprecedented.

[Geos]

That's one of the reasons why our Fall was so warm last year up until mid November when it flipped cold.  I remember the first 15 days of November were torchy around these parts.  Mid November is when the cold pattern started to settle in.

 

Edit:  The amount of warm waters in the north pacific this time around is unprecedented.

 

That is sure the truth!

 

Now we just wait and see if there is any ENSO influence. Waiting for the JAS time period ONI index to update.

[Tom]

That is sure the truth!

 

Now we just wait and see if there is any ENSO influence. Waiting for the JAS index to update.

There is some warm water trying to come up from beneath the surface in the ENSO 3.4 region.  I'm having a hard time trying to buy into an El Nino this year.  The latest JAMSTEC run showed the area of warm water shrink dramatically since its July run and cooled off a bit.  A weak El Nino, central based, would bring upon a chillier winter as was the case in 2009/10 and more than likely juicier systems.

[Tom]

From the looks of it, Canada is going to enter a rapid pace of building a snow cover up there during the first 2 weeks of October, especially after Day 10.  Good signs for building our source region for cold.

[tim the weatherman]

From the looks of it, Canada is going to enter a rapid pace of building a snow cover up there during the first 2 weeks of October, especially after Day 10.  Good signs for building our source region for cold.

sounds good if we get canada to build on their snowpack in october managed it look like for us in dacember and the cold will be hitting us early this year and if we do get any storms they could be big snowstorms and the way the lrc is shaping that the storm track will be through our area and i am hoping we will get big snowstorms than las winter where we got those alberta clippers from canada thanks to that ridging over alaska.

[The Snowman]

Could that mean a trough in the western US?

If the SST pattern persists as-is, I'd believe more of a west ridge / east trough pattern, placing the Central US in zonally-oriented flow at times, along with bouts of both warm and cold.

 

SST pattern over Japan obviously not the sole piece to the puzzle, but as long as we're exploring the theory of a correlation, that's likely be what the winter would turn out as, void of any other influences.

 

The two typhoons hitting Japan and/or just east of Japan likely won't help to cool down the Sea of Japan either...

[Tom]

Some mean looking cold setting up for mid November on the CFS...I think that is about when we should start paying attention to some winter storm activity that may hold and stick around for a while.

[Geos]

Some mean looking cold setting up for mid November on the CFS...I think that is about when we should start paying attention to some winter storm activity that may hold and stick around for a while.

 

If Canada is going to fill up with snow soon. I think by the 20th we need to start watching for snowstorms in the U.S. 

[Niko]

If Canada is going to fill up with snow soon. I think by the 20th we need to start watching for snowstorms in the U.S. 

Yup..I agree.

[Niko]

Some mean looking cold setting up for mid November on the CFS...I think that is about when we should start paying attention to some winter storm activity that may hold and stick around for a while.

Check out all of that cold air up in canada. It will be just a matter of time before it invades the US.

[Tom]

If Canada is going to fill up with snow soon. I think by the 20th we need to start watching for snowstorms in the U.S. 

I agree, especially with another powerful Typhoon expected to hit Japan around the 13th/14th.  What I meant to say was, that it may be certainly possible that parts of the Upper Midwest/Northwoods/Lakes may start to develop a snow cover mid November, maybe not down around here but up there its on the table.

[Niko]

Farmers Almanac say this:

 

http://www.messagemedia.co/aitkin/news/article_6d272570-48b1-11e4-b548-001a4bcf6878.html

 

Looks like my area is under the gun again. Here we go. Let the fun begin!

[Tom]

Nice graphic from Skilling comparing the SST's last October to this October in the north pacific.  I believe he is trying to say in a nice way that CPC has got it wrong on their current winter outlook. Good job Skilling!

[Tom]

Over the last 10 days, the snow cover in Siberia, Alaska and NW/N Canada has exploded...

[Geos]

Nice graphic from Skilling comparing the SST's last October to this October in the north pacific.  I believe he is trying to say in a nice way that CPC has got it wrong on their current winter outlook. Good job Skilling!

 

Yeah - I hope that's what he is getting at because the CPC doesn't have a clue!

[Tom]

CFS still continues to show a significant sustained cold shot around the 12-18th with high temps sub 32F from I-80 on north, reinforcements thereafter!  Could be some interesting snow storm activity around that timeframe.  November looking more like December!

[Tom]

Checkout how much of Eurasia is supposed to be under snow cover by mid October!  Very impressive.  BTW, that part of the world is really going to chill down this month and next.  If we are going to expect more SSW's to occur this season, they are going to pack a brutal blow with all that frigid air brewing.

[james1976]

I cant wait to see those snow maps around here, lol

[Geos]

Checkout how much of Eurasia is supposed to be under snow cover by mid October!  Very impressive.  BTW, that part of the world is really going to chill down this month and next.  If we are going to expect more SSW's to occur this season, they are going to pack a brutal blow with all that frigid air brewing.

 

Yeah it's going to really build up early and become expansive given more SSW's and above average snow cover. I think this is going to be the winter that a lot of long term winter records fall across the continent.

[Tom]

Yeah it's going to really build up early and become expansive given more SSW's and above average snow cover. I think this is going to be the winter that a lot of long term winter records fall across the continent.

I've been thinking about that ever since I compared the SST's in the north pacific.  Ever since then and after gathering other information regarding the potential weakened PV from Andrew's post, seeing the new LRC setting up right before our eyes, the growing and expansive snow cover in Eurasia AND Canada along with my personal beliefs and judgment calls...this winter could very well be of epic proportion.  You could just see Mother Nature laying out the cards right before our eyes.

[clintbeed1993]

Good to see you guys are still active on here.  I am really starting to get the itch for snow, especially after my area was completely shafted last winter.

[Tom]

Can't wait to see one of these maps!  The amount of wet systems we have seen this October and a few more expected this month, these type of maps may be more common this year.

[Niko]

Can't wait to see one of these maps!  The amount of wet systems we have seen this October and a few more expected this month, these type of maps may be more common this year.

For a second there, I thought that was a forecast right before I read your post.    Phew!!!!!    I have to admit, that map brings back memories from last winter.

[Tony]

I see there is a lot of excitement brewing with this upcoming winter. I have read through the posts briefly but it sure seems that this winter could definitely be exciting. Hopefully the rest of this month will be tranquil and on the warm side and then once we head towards the middle/end of November Ole Man Winter can make its appearance. 

 

Looking at the analogs, the late 70's sure do look like a good match for this winter. Will be interesting for sure and look forward to all the posts and sleepless nights following Major Winter Storms and Artic Fronts.

[Tom]

The new JMA seasonal run and weekly run is out late tonight and I'm very curious what it has predicted over the next several weeks.  I'm betting that it is even colder with its winter outlook.  For all intents and purposes, I read JB's write up today on Wx Bell and he saw the new Euro seasonal forecast and it still has a major negative AO with massive ridging in NW NAMER and POLE but also showing more Greenland blocking from previous runs.  He did say that the midsection of the nation is colder than previous runs and so is the east.  Meaning, it may be heading towards what the Sept run on the JAMSTEC was showing (except for the warm east coast).  JB did mention that he thinks this winter will have more widespread cold and snow this year and it may even get colder than previous winter (JB is jumping on the bandwagon).