Long Range Discussion for Autumn and Winter

[Tom]

Nice snow cover beginning to build near the Yukon and NW Territories...right where both the Euro and JMA are expecting ridging to build for the winter season.  The CFS begins to build some serious cold up in this part of the world towards the end of October and early November.   Once you build that ridge, it will unleash the fridge into the lower 48.

[Tom]

Here is a map on the CFS showing the cold right where we see that snow cover building....nature laying out the building blocks

[james1976]

If I'm looking at that CFS map correctly, that looks really warm for mid November. I thought CFS was showing a cold November?

[Niko]

Next week looks to be right around normal for my area, if not slightly above average. Possibly near 70 degrees, but with that warmer air, we pay the price with rain. The good thing about the warmer weather next week is that thunderstorms may be in play. Some could be strong to severe.

[Tom]

If I'm looking at that CFS map correctly, that looks really warm for mid November. I thought CFS was showing a cold November?

It still is, but this is just one day and shows the cold building up mid month.  I didn't post the cold days to open the month and mid month.

[Tom]

Incredible expansive snow cover is being forecasted by mid October in Siberia! 

[The Snowman]

My Official 2014-2015 Winter Forecast: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2014/10/official-2014-2015-winter-forecast.html

[james1976]

My Official 2014-2015 Winter Forecast: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2014/10/official-2014-2015-winter-forecast.html

Looks pretty good. You thinking a bit less snowfall than last year?

[Tom]

My Official 2014-2015 Winter Forecast: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2014/10/official-2014-2015-winter-forecast.html

Come to think of it, the Hudson Bay Low's that have been popping up this month could be the common feature we see this winter.  Might be the sign of the PV displacing itself in that region.  Something to watch for sure.

[Tom]

CFS keeping it stormy and cold from the Plains to the Lakes as we head into the first parts of November.  By mid month, its looks like winter wants to settle in.  The last map is the Sunday before Thanksgiving week.  Check out all that brutal cold building in Canada under what is expected to be a nice snow pack by then.  Day time highs across the country look much below normal in November, especially the mid section of the nation.  I think this will be the epicenter of our winter season.  This run it had parts of the central U.S. from N MO on north 32F or colder for day time highs for a 7 day period (11/12-11/19).  Pretty far fetched, but a serious cold signal no doubt.

[Tom]

Just like last year at about this time, the Brazilian Meteograms were showing a very cold signal for our region.  After reading JB's post on Wx Bell just now, he posted this picture:

 

Basically, he mentions that from Dec-Mar the temp barely reaches 32F a couple times the entire winter and there are plenty of snow chances.  Some big whoppers showing up in January.  Another repeat in the making???  Maybe this is the year Chicago sets a new All-Time snow record.  Nonetheless, some serious cold signals showing up in a range of long term models.

[Tom]

"I'm Dreaming of a White Thanksgiving"....Hahaha...already getting into the holiday spirit.  Most CFSv2 members starting to show a snowy and cold forecast for the central U.S. the week leading up to Thanksgiving!

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Two white thanksgivings in a row would be a nice treat, and somewhat rare in recent years.

[Tom]

Two white thanksgivings in a row would be a nice treat, and somewhat rare in recent years.

I remember Thanksgiving week last year was a very chilly one.  Puts you in the holiday spirit and why not throw an extra log in the fireplace.  I like the trends we are seeing this year...might have to put up the Christmas lights earlier this year if snow is in the forecast!

[Tom]

Nearly 80% of Russia will be snow covered by mid/late October and 100% of Siberia.  An unprecedented pace of a growing snow pack in that part of the world!  When we get any SSW events or cross polar flows this season, they are sure to pack one hell ova punch this season.

[Tom]

Notice the below average snow cover departures to the west of the Bearing Sea in far eastern Russia.  This will very well promote high pressure to develop right there in the arctic regions and disrupt the PV (-AO).  Something Andrew touched on and I'm seeing a weak SSW event developing right over this part of the world.  Its fascinating to analyze these maps and see mother nature respond correctly to the ideas that are being predicted in the near future.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.shtml

[Tom]

CFS continues to drive the idea of an interesting wx pattern leading up to Thanksgiving week...doesn't this have a signature of a Cross Polar Flow???

[tim the weatherman]

was looking at the accuweather fourms and tha way i am hearing by a few of the members over there is that the warm pool of waters will dimish over the next month and the way they're saying that from the midwest to the northeast will be warmer this winter that i think it is a bunch of crock because if you look at that that the warm pool in the gulf of alaska has not budge on bit and it will be negative for both the epo and the wpo for this up coming winter.

[Tom]

was looking at the accuweather fourms and tha way i am hearing by a few of the members over there is that the warm pool of waters will dimish over the next month and the way they're saying that from the midwest to the northeast will be warmer this winter that i think it is a bunch of crock because if you look at that that the warm pool in the gulf of alaska has not budge on bit and it will be negative for both the epo and the wpo for this up coming winter.

Could be some wishful thinking.  I have noticed the warm pool cool a bit over the last few weeks near the Alaskan coastline where there has been storminess of late.  However, notice the very warm waters near the British Columbia/Oregon/Washington coastline.  Keep in mind how cold the waters were this time last year in October/November.  They are markedly warmer this year compared to last year.  All long range models have the warm waters hugging NW NAMER through the Fall/Winter months.

[tim the weatherman]

Could be some wishful thinking.  I have noticed the warm pool cool a bit over the last few weeks near the Alaskan coastline where there has been storminess of late.  However, notice the very warm waters near the British Columbia/Oregon/Washington coastline.  Keep in mind how cold the waters were this time last year in October/November.  They are markedly warmer this year compared to last year.  All long range models have the warm waters hugging NW NAMER through the Fall/Winter months.

i agree tom that the epo and the epo will be negative and those guys at the accuweather fourms are wrong that you got to look at the right instead of looking at the wrong models too.

[Geos]

Could be some wishful thinking.  I have noticed the warm pool cool a bit over the last few weeks near the Alaskan coastline where there has been storminess of late.  However, notice the very warm waters near the British Columbia/Oregon/Washington coastline.  Keep in mind how cold the waters were this time last year in October/November.  They are markedly warmer this year compared to last year.  All long range models have the warm waters hugging NW NAMER through the Fall/Winter months.

 

That is still quite warm and that covers a big area still.

 

---

 

Yeah last Thanksgiving the high and low here was 29/16 and the day before it was 27/9! The cold came in so fast last November that a lot of people didn't even bother putting up Christmas lights - or at least not nearly as many as they would normal. Luckily I had mine up while it was in the 40s still!

[Tom]

Saw this post by JB regarding the Brazilian....I think some folks in this region may want to move to Brazil after this winter! 

 

 

3 months straight no high temps above 32F, many snow events...I think we all are getting the idea of what we may be expecting this season.

[tim the weatherman]

was just looking at joe bastardis twitter page and he also has stated the the brazilian metogram has chicago from jan 1 to march 1 below freezing and all snow and for chances for a couple or few snowstorms to fit the forecast as well and we could be in line for a snowy and colder forecast for the chicago this winter and with panhandle hooks and for col lows as well so that means that chicago could be in line for a repeat in the making like the groundhogs day blizzard that struck in 2011 and i do belive that this winter with the lrc setting up that the storm track will line up from texarkana to east of indianapolis to detroit also.

[Tom]

was just looking at joe bastardis twitter page and he also has stated the the brazilian metogram has chicago from jan 1 to march 1 below freezing and all snow and for chances for a couple or few snowstorms to fit the forecast as well and we could be in line for a snowy and colder forecast for the chicago this winter and with panhandle hooks and for col lows as well so that means that chicago could be in line for a repeat in the making like the groundhogs day blizzard that struck in 2011 and i do belive that this winter with the lrc setting up that the storm track will line up from texarkana to east of indianapolis to detroit also.

You may finally get your wish and get another GHD Blizzard this year the way this current storm is hitting our area.  Just have to see how it plays out during the next cycle of the LRC and if it phases better and doesn't cut-off.  Many phased systems this year are def on the table.  December may start off very snowy and some of the analogs are pointing towards a December 2000 open.

[james1976]

December 2000. I loved that month.

[The Snowman]

Awfully stormy in the Gulf of Alaska, GWO moving towards Phase 5 as AAM remains negative yet tendency pushes positive. Looks like bouts of ridging/warmth in the next week or two. 

 

Concern of cooling SST anomalies in the GOA due to the storms is increasing.

[Geos]

December 2000. I loved that month.

 

Yes, that was a great month. After that though it got really boring, except for a later season storm in March.

 

Awfully stormy in the Gulf of Alaska, GWO moving towards Phase 5 as AAM remains negative yet tendency pushes positive. Looks like bouts of ridging/warmth in the next week or two. 

 

Concern of cooling SST anomalies in the GOA due to the storms is increasing.

 

Still quite a bit of area above normal.

 

 

[Tom]

Yes, that was a great month. After that though it got really boring, except for a later season storm in March.

 

 

Still quite a bit of area above normal.

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2014/anomnight.10.13.2014.gif

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/cmb/sst_analysis/images/wkanomv2.png

Seems like the storminess in the GOA is all apart of the seasonal transition.  Last year this time Alaska was also getting bombarded with systems.  I don't mind it all, build that snow pack up there near the Yukon bc later on in November the pattern will change and you will see more blocking over the top to develop.  That will be our source region for cold anyhow.  Like you said, those waters are still extremely warm in the NE Pacific.  The very warm waters have pooled closer to the NW coast of the U.S and British Columbia.  Something the CFSv2 has been forecasting.

[james1976]

Awfully stormy in the Gulf of Alaska, GWO moving towards Phase 5 as AAM remains negative yet tendency pushes positive. Looks like bouts of ridging/warmth in the next week or two. 

 

Concern of cooling SST anomalies in the GOA due to the storms is increasing.

I don't know what this means, lol

 

PS: Love your blog man!! Keep it up! I love how detailed you are, even though I don't understand all of it.

[james1976]

For cold/active weather in the midwest, we would want warm SST's in GOA, correct?

[Tom]

For cold/active weather in the midwest, we would want warm SST's in GOA, correct?

You stand correct, warm SST's in GOA cause ridging (-AO) and this allows the jet stream to buckle up around the ridge and deliver a trough in the central/eastern CONUS downstream.

 

Just to add what Geo's was showing regarding SST's...I'm posting the SST's back on October 10th last year and you can see the stark difference in water temps.  Complete opposite and we still had a severe winter.  It's not to say the waters will continue to cool because last year the models predicted the SST's to warm throughout the winter (which in fact they did) and this year they are supposed to maintain their warmth.

[gabel23]

Don't like the looks of what Brett Anderson posted this morning on Accu. Here is his long range interpretation of what the models show going into November. Looks pretty warm to me. 

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/weekly-long-range-update-into-november/35701624

[Tom]

Don't like the looks of what Brett Anderson posted this morning on Accu. Here is his long range interpretation of what the models show going into November. Looks pretty warm to me. 

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/weekly-long-range-update-into-november/35701624

Read this the other day and because he is using the Euro and CFSv2 (most likely), they have been warm biased this Autumn.  For example, the CFSv2 had a warm October being predicted heading into the last week of September and I'll post a map of the current month to date.  You can obviously see it hasn't been warm in the central/north central and Lakes.  I do believe we will see some ridging in the 6-10 Day range and it may be more in the Plains than the Lakes, but this won't last long heading into November.

 

There is a fight between the Euro Ensemble and Control, both are complete opposite of one another in the 10-15 day range.

[gabel23]

Read this the other day and because he is using the Euro and CFSv2 (most likely), they have been warm biased this Autumn.  For example, the CFSv2 had a warm October being predicted heading into the last week of September and I'll post a map of the current month to date.  You can obviously see it hasn't been warm in the central/north central and Lakes.  I do believe we will see some ridging in the 6-10 Day range and it may be more in the Plains than the Lakes, but this won't last long heading into November.

 

There is a fight between the Euro Ensemble and Control, both are complete opposite of one another in the 10-15 day range.

Wow, let the battle begin. I'm fine with a warm next couple of weeks, that will allow me to put up my x mas lights and clean my garden up before I start coaching basketball. I'm just hoping we get into the active weather when the jet stream starts its active fall regime!!

[bud2380]

I would love nice warm/mild weather up through about Thanksgiving.  Then we can bring on the snow.  I don't mind tailgating in cool weather once in awhile, but man last year we had some brutally cold games.  I'm hoping this year when the Hawkeyes play the Badgers and Cornhuskers to end the year I don't need 7 layers of clothes to stay warm. 

[bud2380]

Also NOAA will release their winter outlook on Thursday.

 

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/advisories/20141009-advisory-winteroutlook.html

[james1976]

What happened to the big typhoon and the trough that it should bring around the 20th? Looks like it aint happening.

[Geos]

What happened to the big typhoon and the trough that it should bring around the 20th? Looks like it aint happening.

 

Models could be playing catch up. I'll let Tom comment on this since he has access to more models.

[Tom]

Arctic invasion for Thanksgiving week?????  CFS keeps painting an active storm track from the Plains to the Lakes as we head into November.

[tim the weatherman]

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/newsstory/2014/650x366_10131619_winter-14-15-hd%5B1%5D.jpgthis is the accuweather winter outlook for this winter and they has the northeast us to get the snowy weather while us in the greatlakes will be cold which i totally disagree with this forecast.