October 2014 observations and discussion

[Geos]

Latest 12z GFS showing possible flurries in the air on Halloween for N IL/S WI.  Wind off the lake may compromise getting down to freezing Friday night along the lakeshore.

 

Looks like the wind will be due north on Friday, so more of an issue further south along the lake shore. Forecasted low is 27° for my location Halloween night. 

[james1976]

still hasnt hit 50 today. cloudy and windy. this current push of cold air is a bit stronger than forecasted.

[CentralNebWeather]

NWS Hastings says no moisture and primarily above normal temps ( with a couple of below days) through Nov. 11.  That will be all of October and the first 1/2 of November with very little rain.  The models always look promising, then nothing happens.  It sure has the makings of last winter when we were missed by most snow.  Need things to change markedly.  Please Tom, any good news down the road.  Nebraskans on the board are getting depressed.

[Tom]

NWS Hastings says no moisture and primarily above normal temps ( with a couple of below days) through Nov. 11.  That will be all of October and the first 1/2 of November with very little rain.  The models always look promising, then nothing happens.  It sure has the makings of last winter when we were missed by most snow.  Need things to change markedly.  Please Tom, any good news down the road.  Nebraskans on the board are getting depressed.

I wouldn't sweat it just yet bud, there is way too much going on in the atmosphere right now to even determine if NE gets missed out by storm systems this winter.  Just to give you some hope, when I took a look at the 12z 27th run on the Euro ensembles and compared it to today's 12z run...this is an ominous signal for some cross country storm systems to traverse the region Day 10-15.  The recent ensemble run has dissipated any central CONUS ridge BUT, more importantly, check out the blocking over the top, Bearing Sea trough, almost a classic coast to coast stormy pattern.  Lets see how this evolves over the next couple days.   This is certainly a cold signal down the road.

[Scott26]

LOT mentioned the Lake Effect snow chances for Friday in their afternoon discussion

 

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE RATHER CONSISTENT ON
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGGING STRAIGHT SOUTH FROM NORTHERN CANADA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A RELATIVELY WEAK SURFACE
LOW SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL BE
DEEPENING WITH TIME. A VERY STRONG CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES BEHIND THE
LOW INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. H85 TEMPS ARE STILL FORECAST TO FALL TO
AROUND -8C WITH SOME GUIDANCE TRENDING A LITTLE COLDER. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MUCH COLDER SURFACE AIR SPREADING IN THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY WHICH IF TIMING HOLDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FALLING TEMPS
THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE IT IS STILL EARLY FOR SPECIFICS DO HAVE A
FEW CONCERNS THAT WILL BEAR WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS GIVEN
THE SYNOPTIC SET UP. FIRST IS PRECIP. THE BULK OF SYNOPTIC PRECIP
APPEARS TO REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WITH THE UPPER LOW
CENTER REMAINING JUST TO THE EAST WITH THE DEFORMATION AXIS PRECIP
LOOKING SHORT LIVED...THOUGH ENOUGH COLD AIR COULD ARRIVE ALLOWING
FOR A MIX OF PRECIP TYPES. NEXT IS LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL. IT WILL
CERTAINLY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES WITH LAKE-H85
DELTA TS OF 18-19 C. ORGANIZATION OF BANDS LOOKS TO BE THE
CHALLENGE WITH WINDS STEADILY COMING AROUND FROM NORTHWEST TO
NORTH WITH SPEEDS POTENTIALLY BEING VERY STRONG THROUGH THE
UNSTABLE LAYER. IN ADDITION...WITH THE STRONG HIGH BUILDING IN
INVERSION HEIGHTS MAY QUICKLY FALL PUTTING AN END TO ANY
MEANINGFUL PRECIP...ESPECIALLY BY THE TIME A DUE NORTH FETCH
FAVORING STRONG CONVERGENCE OVER THE LAKE SETS UP FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. LAKE PRECIP TYPE WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN
AND BE DEPENDENT ON LOW LEVEL TEMPS BUT IF PRECIP CAN OCCUR AFTER
DARK FRIDAY THEN IT COULD BE ALL FROZEN. GIVEN THE TIME RANGE AND
THE POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTORS WILL CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
AREAS NEAR THE LAKE FAVORED BY A NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND.
ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS
ALONG THE LAKESHORE...AS WELL AS LARGE WAVES IMPACTING THE
SHORELINE THANKS TO THE LONG FETCH OF NORTH WIND. AGAIN...TOO
EARLY TO PIN DOWN DETAILS BUT THE ABOVE CONCERNS ARE HIGHLIGHTED
GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC EXPECTATIONS. THINGS QUIET DOWN SATURDAY AS THE
HIGH MOVES IN LEAVING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S.

[CentralNebWeather]

Thanks Tom, always look forward to your analysis.

[Geos]

Friday and Friday night sound exciting! Looking forward to the windy conditions at least. 

 

Daytime high in the 50s today, but 68° at midnight. The winds today knocked a whole lot of leaves down in my yard. 

 

Winds coming in due N Friday.

 

[Tom]

Friday and Friday night sound exciting! Looking forward to the windy conditions at least. 

 

Daytime high in the 50s today, but 68° at midnight. The winds today knocked a whole lot of leaves down in my yard. 

 

Winds coming in due N Friday.

 

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/gfs/3/maps/2014/10/28/18/GFS_3_2014102818_F72_TMPC_850_MB.png

Should be a fun day to enjoy the weather on Halloween with 30-40mph wind gusts!  I think temps may back off even more, might not get out of the upper 30's on Friday.  Lake Michigan will certainly be roaring with huge white caps.  I heard wave heights are forecasted to be around 17ft!

 

@ Scott, you wanted your Fall wind storm....I think this one may be your wish come true! 

[Money]

GFS showing some snow into WI on Halloween now. http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS/2014102900/USA_ASNOWIPER_sfc_072.gif

[Money]

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS/2014102900/USA_ASNOWIPER_sfc_072.gif

 

There's the link. 

[Geos]

NAM is accumulating some big LES/R numbers at the bottom of the lake. Will be interesting to see if someone gets accumulating snow Friday night!

 

 

Article on the ever increasing snow cover.

http://iceagenow.info/2014/10/snow-cover-standard-deviation/

[james1976]

models are getting colder each run for this halloween. looking more and more like some LES!

[Niko]

Snow is in the forecast for my area believe it or not.  "A White Halloween Perhaps"

 

This from Noaa:

BETTER CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AS
LAKE EFFECT LIKELY PERSISTS AND LOW LEVEL COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO
BLEED IN UNDER NIGHT-TIME SETTING. ALTHOUGH EURO HAS
THE BEST SUPPORT FOR SNOW AS SURFACE WET BULB TEMPS FALL BELOW
FREEZING ALONG AND WEST OF U.S. 23 BY 00Z SATURDAY.

 

My low temperature Sat. night is expected to nosedive to record levels (Near 20F). I think the record is 17F.

[Tom]

Pretty impressive wave heights on Lake Michigan are being forecasted....

[james1976]

They keep lowering temps here for the weekend. Now low 40s for highs and low 20s for lows. Trough is coming more west.

[Tom]

They keep lowering temps here for the weekend. Now low 40s for highs and low 20s for lows. Trough is coming more west.

This is typical for cold air outbreaks that have a source region directly from the arctic.  I bet you don't get out of the 30's Friday!  The GFS especially is notorious for swinging the energy farther east then corrects westward.  This happened 2 weeks ago and it is happening again. 

 

What is even more interesting is the models take on the 12z run come mid next week.  I think there will be some snow flying in your area or thereabouts.  The trough will correct farther west and a hybrid Clipper may develop late next week.  The 12z Euro run yesterday was hinting at it and now the 12z GFS is showing something similar.  Fun times ahead!

[Tom]

12z Euro is showing an impressive coverage of day time highs in the upper 30's or lower for Halloween...very cold nights ahead...

[Geos]

For anyone Trick o' treating on Halloween it's going to be cold and wet - possible white depending where you're at.

 

Saw this on Amwx. 10pm CST. Imagine Chicago getting a LES snowstorm!

 

 

I'd be concerned with power outages near the lake from winds alone on Friday. Minus the snow factor.

 

 

 

[Tom]

That would be one hellova lake effect plume if only it was December!  It would be nice to see snow flakes flying Friday night.  The remaining leaves on the trees will surely be ripped off by the strong winds be predicted.  Does it seem like the leaves are coming down earlier than in recent years???

[Geos]

That would be one hellova lake effect plume if only it was December!  It would be nice to see snow flakes flying Friday night.  The remaining leaves on the trees will surely be ripped off by the strong winds be predicted.  Does it seem like the leaves are coming down earlier than in recent years???

 

Yes they are coming off a bit earlier. Most autumns in the past were milder than this one. For my yard, I think 90% of the trees will be bare by Saturday morning. I remember Halloween's where half the trees still had their leaves - not this year

 

LOT on the LES potential.

 

T APPEARS MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE

FAVORED ACROSS AREAS NEAR THE LAKE ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING.

HOWEVER...AS THE MAIN UPPER IMPULSE MOVES OVER THE AREA THURSDAY

NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...IT COULD DRIVE A SHORT PERIOD OF SHOWERS

ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...DRIER AIR AND LARGE SCALE FORCING

FOR DECENT SHOULD OVERSPREAD MOST INLAND AREAS ACROSS NORTHERN

ILLINOIS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...LIKELY ENDING THE THREAT OF PRECIP.

HOWEVER...AREAS NEAR THE LAKE IN FAR NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS AND MY

NORTHWESTERN INDIANA COUNTIES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE

PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS THERMODYNAMICS

OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BECOME VERY FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT

PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS

LOOK TO EXCEED 16,000 FEET WITH LAKE SURFACE TEMPERATURE TO 850 MB

TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES OF 18-19 DEGREES C. THE OVERALL DEPTH OF

THIS LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY COULD ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME CHARGE

SEPARATION SUPPORTING THUNDER AND LIGHTENING ACROSS SOUTHERN

PORTIONS OF THE LAKE AND POSSIBLY INTO NORTHWESTERN INDIANA FRIDAY.

SO I HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF SUCH IN THE FORECAST.

 

THE MAIN QUESTION WITH THIS EVENT REMAINS AS TO WHEN THE PRECIP TYPE

COULD MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW. IT APPEARS THAT WITH 850 MB

TEMPERATURES AROUND -8 DEGREES C...THAT A TRANSITION OVER TO LAKE

EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE A DECENT BET BY LATE FRIDAY

AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR

CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN HEAVY SHOWERS OVER THE LAKE...DYNAMIC COOLING

COULD BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO RESULT IN AN EARLY TRANSITION TO SNOW

OVER NORTHWESTERN INDIANA. WITH THIS IN MIND CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF

ANY TRANSITION TO SNOW ON FRIDAY IS LOW...THOUGH THERE IS THE

POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVIER RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WHICH COULD RESULT IN

SOME ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN INDIAN IN SPITE

OF WARM GROUND TEMPS. THE STRONG WINDS COULD ALSO ALLOW THESE

SHOWERS TO GET WELL INLAND ACROSS NORTHWESTERN INDIANA. THE THREAT

OF SNOW SHOULD COME TO END OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AS INVERSION HEIGHTS

TANK IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS AND WARMING MID

LEVEL TEMPERATURES

 

[Tom]

Near record high wave heights are being forecasted up to 24FT!  The lake will def look mean and angry on Friday without a doubt...I always find it rather neat to take pictures of the waves crashing against the shoreline.

[Yerf]

Afternoon AFD for LOT really hitting on the LSD potential for tomorrow

[Yerf]

I meant LES

[Tom]

High rez models showing a more NE/SW orientation banding setting up off the lake Friday night.  LES is normally a nowcast type of event anyway so it will be interesting to see how far inland on this side of the lake these bands can form.  The global models are keeping more due north/south.  I think parts of COOK/LAKE county may get some sticking snow.

 

HRRR model showing snow showers near MKE around 6:00am Friday morning...notice the orientation of the bands setting up in Lake Superior.  Could be similar to what we see in NE IL/SE WI.

[Scott26]

High rez models showing a more NE/SW orientation banding setting up off the lake Friday night.  LES is normally a nowcast type of event anyway so it will be interesting to see how far inland on this side of the lake these bands can form.  The global models are keeping more due north/south.  I think parts of COOK/LAKE county may get some sticking snow.

 

HRRR model showing snow showers near MKE around 6:00am Friday morning...notice the orientation of the bands setting up in Lake Superior.  Could be similar to what we see in NE IL/SE WI.

Yup, all high-res models seem to be indicating snow mixing in with rain showers for tomorrow morning especially near the lake. The main band will likely stay over southern Lake Michigan though due to Northerly winds. Take a look at the instability over the lake though! With lake temps in the lower 50's plenty of moisture and instability over the Lake. High-res models also winds to shift more Northeasterly tomorrow evening leading to the lake effect band over Indiana to become more transient. Inversion heights will begin to drop so therefore the band will likely lose some of its muster as it goes westward. We still may have some light snow overnight though. Fun day ahead in general tomorrow! 50-55 mph wind gusts, 20-25 ft waves, and Lake effect. Very reminiscent of the effects Hurricane Sandy had over here two years ago today other than the lake effect snow.

[Tom]

Yup, all high-res models seem to be indicating snow mixing in with rain showers for tomorrow morning especially near the lake. The main band will likely stay over southern Lake Michigan though due to Northerly winds. Take a look at the instability over the lake though! With lake temps in the lower 50's plenty of moisture and instability over the Lake. High-res models also winds to shift more Northeasterly tomorrow evening leading to the lake effect band over Indiana to become more transient. Inversion heights will begin to drop so therefore the band will likely lose some of its muster as it goes westward. We still may have some light snow overnight though. Fun day ahead in general tomorrow! 50-55 mph wind gusts, 20-25 ft waves, and Lake effect. Very reminiscent of the effects Hurricane Sandy had over here two years ago today other than the lake effect snow.

I just saw NBC 5 in house model and the lake plume stays on shore in NE IL from Friday 6:00pm - Sat 10:00am!  That is a very long duration lake effect event.  Only if it was Winter!  Could you imagine if we get Thundersnow????  Lol

[Meichel]

Yes they are coming off a bit earlier. Most autumns in the past were milder than this one. For my yard, I think 90% of the trees will be bare by Saturday morning. I remember Halloween's where half the trees still had their leaves - not this year

 

I still have 3 maples full. Just started turning this week. Hoping this weekend takes care of them.

[Geos]

LES situation is looking more interesting as the time gets closer. Glad the trick o' treating was on Sunday here.

 

4KM NAM pushing the band into the western shoreline now.

 

[Geos]

Waking up to a dusting of snow here! Big flakes falling.

[Meichel]

 

Nice big, fat, wet flakes here.

[Geos]

Nice picture Meichel.

 

 

It's always fun to hear the comments from other people on the first snow of the season. At least the first snow that sticks!

[Tony]

This halloween will surely be remembered for sticking snow and howling winds!

Does anyone have a map of the HRRR. Curious to see waht it is showing for this side of the lake for tonight

[Geos]

This halloween will surely be remembered for sticking snow and howling winds!

Does anyone have a map of the HRRR. Curious to see waht it is showing for this side of the lake for tonight

 

Take a look at the composite reflectivity maps.

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=hrrr_ncep_jet&domain=t7&run_time=31+Oct+2014+-+11Z

 

Whoah! Power just flickered here at work!

[Tony]

Take a look at the composite reflectivity maps.

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=hrrr_ncep_jet&domain=t7&run_time=31+Oct+2014+-+11Z

 

Whoah! Power just flickered here at work!

Intense bands really nailing folks near southern Lake Michigan

[Tom]

Trick O' Treat???  I think its a Treat that Mother Nature brought us some sticking snow!  It's official and ORD picked up its first measurable snow of the season.  Actually, its a record!  Never happened before on Halloween.  I didn't wake up early enough to see the snow falling but I'm sure later this afternoon/night it will.  Check out the banding expected to develop later this afternoon!  It doesn't leave NE IL and extreme SE WI.  Man, this could be a pretty decent event.  I think this lake plume can develop into something pretty intense.  LOT may have to adjust their DISCO for Lake/Cook counties.

 

These winds are howling out there!

 

 

[Sciascia]

One of my garbage cans just blew over. A completely full garbage can, at that.

[james1976]

Awesome, guys!

[Tony]

Flakes should be flying again in Illinois looking at the radar and some nice banding starting to showup over the lake as well.

[Geos]

Tom, more snow is coming south towards you. Just had a moderate burst of snow here in Racine. Snow showers over the lake moving SSW by the looks of it.

 

HRRR at 3pm.

I'm staying up to watch the show tonight for sure!

 

 

Looks like Cook County at least will see some accumulation as well tonight.

 

[Tom]

Heck ya!  This is a wild set up to see guys.  Boy, if you love the weather as much as I do, its unbelievable what is happening today...Arctic trough diving down into the lakes on Halloween that is producing LES.  Just mind boggling!  Just as I type this...that band of snow showers is just beginning to move in...sweet!