Geos Posted November 24, 2014 Report Share Posted November 24, 2014 Pulling for the RAP to nudge the deformation band about 50 miles south. Two inches is fine, but would like my November total to go up! Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 24, 2014 Report Share Posted November 24, 2014 NAM Bufkit: MKE: 5.3MSN: 7.2OSH: 6.9GRB: 8.7LSE: 3.5ORD: 0.00DBQ: 3.1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 24, 2014 Report Share Posted November 24, 2014 GFS coming in way wetter with 6-8 near LSE. Still snowing yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted November 24, 2014 Report Share Posted November 24, 2014 Way north though? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 24, 2014 Report Share Posted November 24, 2014 A little bit, not too much. Wide area of 3+ snows in WI though. 8 IN just to the east and nw of LSE. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 24, 2014 Report Share Posted November 24, 2014 RGEM snow accumulations: http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemreg_amer_00/accum/SN_000-048_0000.gif 15-20 MM= .6-.8 QPF or so. Max is about 1.00 QPF of all snow this run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted November 24, 2014 Report Share Posted November 24, 2014 4. Inches here seems reasonable Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted November 24, 2014 Report Share Posted November 24, 2014 MKE's local Skyvision Plus model used by Fox 6 has the MKE metro changing over around noon, that'd be a bit earlier than I was thinking this afternoon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 24, 2014 Report Share Posted November 24, 2014 MKE's local Skyvision Plus model used by Fox 6 has the MKE metro changing over around noon, that'd be a bit earlier than I was thinking this afternoon. How much did it show? Here is MKE take on the changeover: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/mkx/2014/11-24-14-transition.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted November 24, 2014 Report Share Posted November 24, 2014 How much did it show? Here is MKE take on the changeover: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/mkx/2014/11-24-14-transition.png Doesn't show amounts, I'll check the 10pm news to see what their models are putting out for snowfall totals. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 24, 2014 Report Share Posted November 24, 2014 I'm gonna wait for the hi-res models and then make my final call. We should have a contest though and see who can get the closest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 24, 2014 Report Share Posted November 24, 2014 By looking at all the maps tonight, it seems the warm tongue will be moving at a steady pace to the east and not getting hung up in one area for long. I think accumulations will be pretty uniform west to east across MKX where the deformation band sets up. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted November 24, 2014 Report Share Posted November 24, 2014 I'm gonna wait for the hi-res models and then make my final call. We should have a contest though and see who can get the closest. Yep, we'll probably have a lot of variance in our guesses and departures from actual results since this is still way up in the air 18-24 hours out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 24, 2014 Report Share Posted November 24, 2014 RAP coming in even strong with the deformation band. Shows it farther west and shows some heavier precip towards LSE. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 24, 2014 Report Share Posted November 24, 2014 Anyone post totals from the hi res nam? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 24, 2014 Report Share Posted November 24, 2014 Pretty sure this is the hi-res nam http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_11_2014/post-7389-0-32227300-1416798961.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted November 24, 2014 Report Share Posted November 24, 2014 I'm gonna end up on the southern end of this 2" of slop Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 24, 2014 Report Share Posted November 24, 2014 Guess the snowfall totals: LSE:MSN:DBQ:GRB:OSH:ORD:MKE:Racine: Bonus: Highest totals (location and amounts) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted November 24, 2014 Report Share Posted November 24, 2014 Lse 5"MSN 3"Dbq 2"Grb 5"Osh 7"Ord traceMke 2"Racine 1"Wisconsin dells 7.5" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 24, 2014 Report Share Posted November 24, 2014 LSE: 4.8" MSN: 5.4" DBQ: 3.7" GRB: 4.0" OSH: 6.2" ORD: 1.6" MKE: 4.4" Racine: 3.7" Bonus: Highest totals - Beaver Dam, 7.0" --- Is it me or is the 3z RAP coming in a bit south? Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted November 24, 2014 Report Share Posted November 24, 2014 LSE: 5.2" MSN: 4.2" DBQ: 1.9" GRB: 4.9" OSH: 5.6" ORD: 0.8" MKE: 1.4" RAC: 1.2" Highest amount: 6.2" at Baraboo, WI I am a bit skimpy on accumulation in the lakeshore areas perhaps but I believe it will be difficult for the snow to stick until after dark in most of those lakeshore cities because even once it changes over to snow, temps appear to be above freezing for most of the afternoon and after all the rain, sticking snow may be difficult to come by until the rush hour, and by then we're probably only looking at a few more hours of snow. I'm praying it will slow down a bit so we can continue to rip in the evening, though I have plans that involve a fair bit of driving as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 24, 2014 Report Share Posted November 24, 2014 Meh, not that south at all from what I can tell. It's got a large area of 30-35 dbz though at the end of the run. GB update (45 mins ago) NEXT ISSUE IS THE POTENTIAL OF ADVISORY TYPE SNOW FOR THE MONDAYAFTERNOON AND EVENING COMMUTE FOR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. FORECASTSOUNDINGS SUGGEST RAIN CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW LATE MONDAYAFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING WHEN A SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSES OVERTHE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE. EVENING NAM RUN SUGGESTS A HIGHEND ADVISORY OR LOW END WARNING SNOW EVENT FOR MUCH OF NORTHEASTWISCONSIN...OR EAST OF A LINE FROM MARINETTE TO WAUTOMA. WILLCHECK OTHER MODEL OUTPUT WHEN AVAILABLE AND BRIEF THE MID CREW...BUTWILL CONTINUE WITH THE SPS/S FOR NOW. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 24, 2014 Report Share Posted November 24, 2014 ARW: HR 18 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/hrw-arw/00/hrw-arw_conus_018_sim_radar.gif HR 20 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/hrw-arw/00/hrw-arw_conus_020_sim_radar.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted November 24, 2014 Report Share Posted November 24, 2014 ARW: HR 18 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/hrw-arw/00/hrw-arw_conus_018_sim_radar.gif HR 20 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/hrw-arw/00/hrw-arw_conus_020_sim_radar.gif Hope that's snow at hour 18, it could be almost a rogue thundersnow/sleet/shower. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 24, 2014 Report Share Posted November 24, 2014 It's going to come down to watching the radar and seeing how quickly the CAA can kick in. Dynamic cooling could be key tomorrow. That deformation band on the 3z RAP looks really healthy. 0.85" of rain and still going here. I tell you... the corresponding snowfall depth map for the RAP is laughable! Showing a dusting across southwest WI by 3pm when it reality it will probably be between 2-4" by then. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 24, 2014 Report Share Posted November 24, 2014 NMM HR 18 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/hrw-nmm/00/hrw-nmm_conus_018_sim_radar.gif HR 20 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/hrw-nmm/00/hrw-nmm_conus_020_sim_radar.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 24, 2014 Report Share Posted November 24, 2014 Hope that's snow at hour 18, it could be almost a rogue thundersnow/sleet/shower. Here is the 850 temp at HR 18 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/hrw-arw/00/hrw-arw_conus_018_850_temp_ht.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 24, 2014 Report Share Posted November 24, 2014 By HR 19, 850's are def. cold enough http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/hrw-arw/00/hrw-arw_conus_019_850_temp_ht.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted November 24, 2014 Report Share Posted November 24, 2014 Wind out of the north currently imby snow shower just west of winona mn. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted November 24, 2014 Report Share Posted November 24, 2014 Here is the 850 temp at HR 18 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/hrw-arw/00/hrw-arw_conus_018_850_temp_ht.gif Looks like it's right when the changeover occurs, maybe thundersnow would be intense enough to result in accumulation even despite surface temps likely in the mid 30s at that time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 24, 2014 Report Share Posted November 24, 2014 ARW HR 22 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/hrw-arw/00/hrw-arw_conus_022_sim_radar.gif HR 23 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/hrw-arw/00/hrw-arw_conus_023_sim_radar.gif HR 24 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/hrw-arw/00/hrw-arw_conus_024_sim_radar.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 24, 2014 Report Share Posted November 24, 2014 NMM: 22 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/hrw-nmm/00/hrw-nmm_conus_022_sim_radar.gif23 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/hrw-nmm/00/hrw-nmm_conus_023_sim_radar.gif 24 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/hrw-nmm/00/hrw-nmm_conus_024_sim_radar.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted November 24, 2014 Report Share Posted November 24, 2014 NMM: 22 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/hrw-nmm/00/hrw-nmm_conus_022_sim_radar.gif23 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/hrw-nmm/00/hrw-nmm_conus_023_sim_radar.gif 24 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/hrw-nmm/00/hrw-nmm_conus_024_sim_radar.gif Man, we're riding the edge of the heavier stuff for awhile. Glad I backed off for MKE, RAC and ORD because it only looks like a two to three hour window of ripping snow and that will probably be during the day so again accums will be iffy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 24, 2014 Report Share Posted November 24, 2014 12 HR QPF (15-27) NMM http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/hrw-nmm/00/hrw-nmm_conus_027_precip_p12.gif ARW (14-26) http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/hrw-arw/00/hrw-arw_conus_026_precip_p12.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 24, 2014 Report Share Posted November 24, 2014 Really liking where I am on all of the models tonight. Should be a good 4-6 here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted November 24, 2014 Report Share Posted November 24, 2014 12 HR QPF (15-27) NMM http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/hrw-nmm/00/hrw-nmm_conus_027_precip_p12.gif ARW (14-26) http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/hrw-arw/00/hrw-arw_conus_026_precip_p12.gif This may not come down to track as much as the speed at which the low and corresponding deformation zone move. If it slows down more than modeled, these higher amounts may shift a tad south. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 24, 2014 Report Share Posted November 24, 2014 ARW has the snow lingering all the way until 8z on Tuesday. HR 29 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/hrw-arw/00/hrw-arw_conus_029_sim_radar.gif http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/hrw-arw/00/hrw-arw_conus_032_sim_radar.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 24, 2014 Report Share Posted November 24, 2014 Yep, I'll take the ARW then! Wow, already snowing west of La Crosse - nice! Two degrees cooler or so, would make a huge difference... Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 24, 2014 Report Share Posted November 24, 2014 NMM keeps it lingering until 8z also. Here is HR 31 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/hrw-nmm/00/hrw-nmm_conus_031_sim_radar.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted November 24, 2014 Report Share Posted November 24, 2014 Any big news on the GEM before I call it a night? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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