December 2014 Observations and Discussion

[tim the weatherman]

Nice maps Tim!  Look at that warming trend in the NE Pacific, cooling near the Bearing Sea and from Cali south to Baja.  That to me says "Winter Lovers Dream"....

this might be the where the epo\wpo will go negative so that means blocking will happen on the west coast so that means from the rockies to the east coast will be colder too.

[Tom]

Not to change the subject, but this video is crazy. Never really heard of needle ice before until I stumbled on this video. I can't even begin to describe this phenomenon, it's pretty unreal. Can't imagine what that must look like in person!

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5FE_5qseGPg

Nice video...these video's were showing up on Lake Superior last year as it was a common theme.  Houses were completely destroyed.  It's like lava seeping out of a volcano but winter style.

[NEJeremy]

It's not "one" run. You can clearly see the trends on the EURO with it trending colder each run.

 

Here is the last 3 runs of the EURO (0z) (oldest of the 3 on the top)

 

HR 216 (0z DEC 3)

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014120300/ecmwf_T850_us_10.png

 

HR 192 (0z DEC 4)

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014120400/ecmwf_T850_us_9.png

 

HR 168 (0z DEC 5th)

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014120500/ecmwf_T850_us_8.png

 

Notice any difference?

 

Oh, and:

 

0z HR 240 (DEC 4th)

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014120400/ecmwf_T850_us_11.png

 

0z HR 216 (DEC 5th)

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014120500/ecmwf_T850_us_10.png

 

As we get closer to the events, the models have trended colder. That's a fact, and Tom has pointed out why that is numerous times and not to believe in the warmth that they were showing in the long range.

 

Let me know when it shows below normal temps for more than the northern Great Lakes or the Northeast. That's all I care about. Again like I said, the forecast was for a high chance of above normal temps for most of the country, not that it is going to be in the 50s, 60s, or 70s for all of the Plains and Great Lakes. People again are always tying a high chance of above normal temps with desert like warmth. This time of year we only have to be in the upper 30s to be above normal.

I believe a change to colder will come in the later part of the month, but right now still believe we'll average above normal for a lot of the area the next 10 days

[Money]

The GFS was showing 5-6 straight days of 50+ for pretty much everyone which is just plain not right. I'm not saying we won't have a day or two above 40 degrees but there won't be a week straight of temps above 40.

 

Tom is gonna be right on this one

[Geos]

It's not "one" run. You can clearly see the trends on the EURO with it trending colder each run.

 

Here is the last 3 runs of the EURO (0z) (oldest of the 3 on the top)

 

HR 216 (0z DEC 3)

 

 

 

HR 192 (0z DEC 4)

 

 

 

HR 168 (0z DEC 5th)

 

 

 

Notice any difference?

 

Oh, and:

 

0z HR 240 (DEC 4th)

 

 

 

0z HR 216 (DEC 5th)

 

 

 

As we get closer to the events, the models have trended colder. That's a fact, and Tom has pointed out why that is numerous times and not to believe in the warmth that they were showing in the long range.

 

That statement right there is so true! What will happen for this region at least and even for the Plains is that the mild spell will get trimmed down to fewer days. I know that's especially true in the late winter and early spring around here. That's generally the rule, except freak episodes like the winter of 11-12 and January of 06.

[tim the weatherman]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014120512/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_43.pnghttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014120512/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_44.pnghttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014120512/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_45.pnghttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014120512/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_46.pnghttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014120512/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_47.pnghttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014120512/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_48.pngaround the 20th of this month.

[gosaints]

why are posting precip maps 324 hours out????

[tim the weatherman]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014120512/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_36.pngon the 15th

[tim the weatherman]

you can tell that the cold air is getting to these systems and the ao could be going to negative too.

[Money]

12z euro looks like 0z with a big system developing at hr 192

[GDR]

Thundersnow?

[tim the weatherman]

12z euro looks like 0z with a big system developing at hr 192

where money?????????????

[gosaints]

where money?????????????

wilmington, il

[Tom]

12z euro looks like 0z with a big system developing at hr 192

Interesting to see that on both the GFS/EURO are showing this system...placement is starkly different.  Nonetheless, storm potential possible sometime late next weekend.

 

I'm going to try and see if this reflects the LRC pattern.

[tim the weatherman]

it looks like winter is kickin in high gear!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! edit: with 2 big systems i'm lovin it.

[GDR]

Is there a possible b word anywhere?

[Tom]

BTW, check out yesterday's 12z run on the placement of the system in the GOA and compare it today's run.....HUGE difference.  Today's 12z run places the storm near the Bearing Sea as well did last nights 00z run.  This has bigger implications downstream and I like the way this model is handling that energy down the road.

[tim the weatherman]

it loos like skilling is wrong as well as andrew at the weather centre.

[tim the weatherman]

could be a big storm at hr 360

[gosaints]

could be a big storm at hr 360

Are you going to do this all winter?

[tim the weatherman]

could be a negative tilted storm.

[Maxim]

could be a big storm at hr 360

My god.... you flood this board...

[tim the weatherman]

My god.... you flood this board...

go away you're annoying.

[gosaints]

go away you're annoying.

????

[Maxim]

????

My exact reaction

[Tony]

Tim is just excited about FINALLY something to track. You can tell he is a Winter Weather Enthusiast so give him a break guys!!

[tim the weatherman]

Tim is just excited about FINALLY something to track. You can tell he is a Winter Weather Enthusiast so give him a break guys!!

thank you tony!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[gosaints]

Tim is just excited about FINALLY something to track. You can tell he is a Winter Weather Enthusiast so give him a break guys!!

Something to track in the 324-400 hour range probably doesn't need 4 posts plus maps.  Makes the thread next to unreadable

[james1976]

Some of you guys are cruel to Tim. Let him have fun. He isn't harming anyone.

[GDR]

[Money]

Let Tim be

[gosaints]

Let Tim be

Alrighty then... Next time someone posts torches in lala land better not here any push back from you or others than either...

[GDR]

We just need some dang winter weather! We got a little spoiled last winter. We could all use a big storm to track!

[tsaw111]

Got some real negative nancys on this board.

[tim the weatherman]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.giflol

[Maxim]

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.giflol

 

That is making you so frustrated...

[NEJeremy]

18Z GFS says what snowstorm(s)??

[Maxim]

Part of the discussion from LOT:

 

THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT OVER THE AREA BY EARLY MONDAY

EVENING. THEN A COLD CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY LATE TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD SET UP SOME
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS COLD AIR
CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER THE REGION. THIS COLDER AIRMASS WILL BE
FAIRLY SHORT LIVED...LIKELY ONLY PRODUCING ONE DAY OF BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY. THEREAFTER...A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED.

MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CONUS LATER IN THE PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO THE PERSISTENT
NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC AND GULF
OF ALASKA REGION SHIFTING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE WESTERN NORTH
AMERICAN COAST. THIS PARTICULARLY PATTERN LOOKS TO BE CONDUCE FOR A
PERIOD OF MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
INDICATING THIS LARGER SCALE EL NINO-LIKE PATTERN EVOLVING...AND
GIVEN THAT THIS IS PATTERN KNOWN FOR PRODUCING MILD CONDITIONS
LOCALLY...CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS PERIOD TO EXPERIENCE
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

[tim the weatherman]

Part of the discussion from LOT:

 

THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT OVER THE AREA BY EARLY MONDAY

EVENING. THEN A COLD CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO

THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY LATE TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD SET UP SOME

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS COLD AIR

CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER THE REGION. THIS COLDER AIRMASS WILL BE

FAIRLY SHORT LIVED...LIKELY ONLY PRODUCING ONE DAY OF BELOW AVERAGE

TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY. THEREAFTER...A WARMING TREND IS

EXPECTED.

 

MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE CENTRAL

AND EASTERN CONUS LATER IN THE PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO THE PERSISTENT

NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC AND GULF

OF ALASKA REGION SHIFTING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE WESTERN NORTH

AMERICAN COAST. THIS PARTICULARLY PATTERN LOOKS TO BE CONDUCE FOR A

PERIOD OF MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY

INTO NEXT WEEKEND. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN

INDICATING THIS LARGER SCALE EL NINO-LIKE PATTERN EVOLVING...AND

GIVEN THAT THIS IS PATTERN KNOWN FOR PRODUCING MILD CONDITIONS

LOCALLY...CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS PERIOD TO EXPERIENCE

ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

lol

[tim the weatherman]

Alrighty then... Next time someone posts torches in lala land better not here any push back from you or others than either...

first of all this is a fourm for members to post for guests to keep in touch about and for us to post anything for the weather and not for rude and negative people like you and others that bashed other members on this fourms today also this fourm is where we discuss the weather and not for other members to get on this fourm and to be negative.